September 16, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this afternoon’s NWS Forecast.

...Heavy to excessive rainfall possible across parts of the Central Great
Basin/Northern Rockies today and into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes
through Friday...

...Daily rounds of showers and storms likely across Florida...

...Warming trend begins in Central Plains while West and Northeast
continue to experience below average temperatures...

...Scattered Severe Thunderstorms over the portions of the Central High
Plains and Central Plains on Friday...

September 15, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this afternoon’s NWS Forecast.

...Heavy to excessive rainfall possible across parts of the central Great
Basin/Northern Rockies through Thursday and into the Upper Midwest/Great
Lakes on Thursday and Friday...

...Daily rounds of showers and storms likely across Florida...

...Above average temperatures span across the central United States and
Midwest to end the week...

September 14, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this afternoon’s NWS Forecast.

...Heavy to excessive rainfall possible across parts of the Great Basin
and Northern Rockies through Wednesday, and into the far northern U.S. on
Thursday...

...Daily rounds of showers and storms likely across Florida...

...Much above normal temperatures for the central U.S., with much below in
parts of the West and the East...

September 13, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this afternoon’s NWS Forecast.

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over Southwest and a
second area over the Northeast/northern Mid-Atlantic through Tuesday
morning...

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall from parts of the Great
Basin/Southwest from Tuesday into Wednesday morning...

September 12, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this afternoon’s NWS Forecast.

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over Upper Great Lakes,
Mid-Atlantic, and Eastern Gulf Coast through Monday morning...

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall from parts of the Upper
Great Lakes and a second area over the northern Mid-Atlantic from Monday
into Tuesday morning...

NOAA Updates its ENSO Analysis on September 8, 2022 – La Nina will probably end soon.

On the second Thursday of every month, NOAA issues its analysis of the status of ENSO. This includes determining the Alert System Status. Although the current status remains the same i.e.  La Nina Advisory, the forecast has been adjusted slightly from last month. The IRI analysis suggests it could be slightly later than it appeared last month. Also, the probability that it will extend into the winter is much higher. So what I anticipated as being a three-peat looks to be a reality. But in theory, things could change.

Nevertheless, that is what both NOAA and I think will happen. But it could happen a bit earlier or a bit later.

I provided a small sample of model runs by a number of different meteorological agencies that is  presented by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) and they suggest that maybe we will be in ENSO Neutral in January or February rather than March as NOAA seems to be thinking. NOAA is placing more weight on the statistical rather than dynamic models but statistics requires data and there have not been a lot of similar situations but what data there is suggests March is more likely than January or February. But perhaps this La Nina will continue beyond March. Maybe it will continue for a fourth year.

September 11, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this afternoon’s NWS Forecast.

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over Southern California,
Nevada, and Arizona through Sunday morning...

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall from parts of the Eastern
Gulf Coast and a second area over the Central Appalachians/southern
Mid-Atlantic through Sunday morning...

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Upper
Great Lakes, a second area over the Mid-Atlantic, and a third over Eastern
Gulf Coast from Sunday into Monday morning...

...Elevated fire weather over parts of the Pacific Northwest...

September 9, 2022 Looking Ahead 28 Days Plus our usual 48-hour report.

After the first week, there is a change in the pattern with more moisture in the Northern Tier and more heat first in the Great Plains and then drifting to the East. The anomalies in the second half of the 28-day period moderate.

NOAA updates many of its weather outlooks daily or even more frequently and in many cases issues a discussion with those outlooks. We provide a daily report which focuses on the shorter-term predictions but has links to all the partial-month outlooks. One of the reports issued by NOAA only gets updated on Fridays and since this covers weeks 3 and 4 it is very important. The discussion that gets issued with this week 3-4 NOAA report is often where possible changes to the weather pattern are first identified.

So we have decided to issue a special report on Fridays (which most will read on Saturday) in which for a subset of the information, we show the actual forecast maps not just provide the links. This makes it easier for the reader. We will also include at the end of the article the other information from the daily article

When the Week 3-4 Outlook is issued on Friday, we have a 28-day view of the future. It is important to recognize that the forecasts do not always work out as predicted. But in the article, there are links to obtain updated forecasts.  This is important because it appears that changes are happening and the current view of the next 28 days differs substantially from the Monthly Outlook issued just a few days ago.

The regular 48-hour forecast article is included in this article and follows the 28-Day Analysis.

This week we also show the state rankings for August and compare them to the state rankings year to date (YTD).

September 9, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical

Updated at 1 pm EDT on September 9, 2022  to reflect updated information on now Tropical Storm Kay

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this afternoon’s NWS Forecast.

...Hazardous weather associated with Hurricane Kay to begin entering
southern California and parts of the Desert Southwest on Friday...

...Dangerous heat continues throughout central and northern California
through the end of the week, with well above average temperatures building
into the Pacific Northwest by the weekend...

...Powerful cold front will usher in much below-average temperatures for
the Intermountain West, Plains and Midwest this weekend...

...Unsettled weather and flash flood chances forecast over parts of the
Southeast and eastern Gulf Coast..

September 8, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical

Here is what we are paying attention to this morning and the next 48 hours from this morning’s NWS Forecast.

...Hazardous weather associated with Hurricane Kay to begin entering
southern California and parts of the Desert Southwest on Friday...

...Dangerous heat continues throughout central and northern California
through the end of the week, with well above average temperatures building
into the Pacific Northwest by the weekend...

...Critical Fire Weather conditions forecast throughout portions of the
Intermountain West and Central Plains...

...Unsettled weather and flash flood chances forecast over parts of the
Southeast and eastern Gulf Coast...