NOAA Updates its Four Season Outlook on November 17, 2022 – La Nina Winter then Big Changes

November 18, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

La Nina Winter, then ENSO Neutral and Then Maybe Something Else

Today is the third Thursday of the month so right on schedule NOAA has issued what I describe as their Four-Season Outlook. The information released also includes the MId-Month Outlook for the single month of December plus the weather and drought outlook for the next three months.  I present the information issued and try to add context to it. It is quite a challenge for NOAA to address the subsequent month, the subsequent three-month period as well as successive three-month periods for a year or a bit more.

We will begin to see the end of La Nina Impacts in March/April/May of 2023 and they will pretty much end before June/July/August of 2023, and there will be another change in November/December/January 2023/2024. Why that last change? Could it be an El Nino or ENSO Neutral with an El Nino Bias?

It is very useful to read the excellent discussion that NOAA issues with this Seasonal Outlook. NOAA seems to be more confident about making predictions beyond six months. They even predict a good Southwest Monsoon next summer which they never used to do this far in advance.

November 17, 2022: U.S. 48-Hour and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks, Tropical, and World Weather

November 18, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

...Heavy lake effect snow downwind from the Great Lakes...

...Temperatures will be 10 to 25 degrees below average from the Great
Lakes to the Rockies...

...There are Winter Storm Warnings, Winter Weather Advisories, and Lake
Effect Snow Warnings snow downwind from the Great Lakes through the end of
the forecast period...

November 16, 2022: U.S. 48-Hour and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks, Tropical, and World Weather

November 17, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

 Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

...Wintry precipitation will continue in northern New England through this
evening as a coastal low tracks northeast...

...Major lake effect snow event downwind of the Great Lakes likely to
begin tonight and continue through the weekend...

...Anomalous cold will continue for most of the CONUS through the end of
the week...

...Strong Santa Ana winds across southern California will relax tonight...

November 15, 2022: U.S. 48-Hour and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks, Tropical, and World Weather

November 16, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

...Mixed precipitation expected for inland areas in the Northeast and
Mid-Atlantic this afternoon into Wednesday morning...

...Heavy Lake Effect Snow in the Great Lakes region Wednesday and
Thursday, especially downwind of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario...

...Strong Santa Ana winds return today across Southern California...

...Anomalous cold will continue for most of the CONUS through the end of
the week...

November 14, 2022: U.S. 48-Hour and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks, Tropical, and World Weather

November 15, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this morning and the next 48 hours from this morning’s NWS Forecast.

...Light snow accumulations across the mid-Missouri Valley and Midwest
through Tuesday morning...

...Coastal rain; inland mixed precipitation on Tuesday evening into
Wednesday across Northeast and Mid-Atlantic as coastal low develops and
moves up coast...

...Anomalously cold air will continue to grip the lower 48 through the
work week...

...Strong Santa Ana winds return across Southern California on Tuesday;
High Wind Warnings in effect...

NOAA Updates it’s November 2022 ENSO Outlook

November 14, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

On the second Thursday of every month, NOAA issues its analysis of the status of ENSO. This includes determining the Alert System Status. Although the current status remains the same i.e.  La Nina Advisory, the forecast has again been adjusted slightly from the prior month. There is some disagreement on when this La Nina will end with the best guess being perhaps March.

But I have actually seen only a few signs of it starting to happen. But all the meteorologists agree that it will.  Could they all be wrong? Probably not.

November 13, 2022: U.S. 48-Hour and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks, Tropical, and World Weather

November 14, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this morning and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

...Lake-effect snow downwind from the Great Lakes Sunday night into
Monday...

...Light snow from the Southern High Plains to the Upper Midwest Monday
evening into Tuesday...

...There are Winter Weather Advisories across parts of the Central Plains
for Monday...

Looking Ahead 28 Days from November 12, 2022

November 12, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 12:42 a.m. EST November 15, 2022

Taste of Early Winter but it only lasts for a couple of weeks

We provide a daily report which focuses on the shorter-term predictions but also has links to all the partial-month outlooks. Once a week we show many of the actual forecast maps not just provide the links to these maps. This makes it easier for the reader. Our report provides a separate forecast for Days 1 and 2, Days1-5, Days 6 -10, Days 8 – 14, and weeks 3 and 4. This provides information that is useful to readers in terms of planning their activities for the next 28 days.

The key dynamic for CONUS is the High Pressure over Alaska which brings cold air into the U.S. Northwest. We end up with cool and dry over most of CONUS which first moderates and later becomes a mostly warm and dry pattern as a new atmospheric-driven storm moves into the West Coast.

When we publish on Friday night, it provides a 28-day view of the future. What is important is that this is a longer-term view than one that is typically available in the media and online.

We also include a 10-Day World Temperature and Precipitation Forecast.

November 10, 2022: U.S. 48-Hour and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks, Tropical, and World Weather

November 11, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this morning and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

...Tropical Cyclone NICOLE will slowly weaken and move northward, becoming
Post-Tropical by Friday evening...

...Heavy snow is to begin to wind down over the Upper Midwest on Friday...

...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Southeast through Saturday morning...

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Southeast on Thursday, moving to the Northeast on Friday...

November 9, 2022: U.S. 48-Hour and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks, Tropical, and World Weather

November 10, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this morning and the next 48 hours from this morning’s NWS Forecast.

...Tropical Cyclone Nicole will continue impacting Florida, Georgia, and
South Carolina today, impacts will spread north Friday into the weekend...

...Heavy snow and blizzard conditions possible in the northern High
Plains, Great Plains, and Upper Mississippi Valley today into Friday...

...Strong cold front to spread below normal temperatures across most of
the nation by the end of the weekend...