U.S. Agriculture Report October 24, 2022

October 24, 2022Posted inClimate, economics, weather2 Comments

There are climate webinars held in different parts of the U.S. and at a webinar “North Central U.S. Climate” held on October 20, 2022, one of the presentations was titled Midwest/Great Plains Agricultural Update, October 20, 2022. The presentation was made by Brad Rippey – USDA. Analyst & Drought Monitor Author. Brad is the managing editor of the USDA Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin and is one of the Editors of the Drought Monitor so he is in a unique position to understand the crop situation in the U.S. If I was a little more patient, I might have a recording of his presentation to share with you but I thought that just presenting his slides would be informative.I am not sure how long it takes for the recording of those webinars to get posted.

I am presenting the slides without comments. If you look carefully, I think you will be able to see that the trend in yield increases for key crops has topped out. Is this global warming or a long cycle? It is hard to say but it is very concerning. Some of the current issues were better explained in his comments and the Q&A afterward. But I think readers will get a good grasp of the situation from the slides. I have personal experience with river levels being too high as the Ohio River Company was a client and that was a frequent problem for them. River levels being too low is new to me. So it is not just a water shortage for farms and cities but also the water-based transportation system in the U.S.. For those who do not know it, our inland water transportation system is one of the key natural endowments of the U.S. 

I have often published articles on the USDA Executive Briefings and some of Brad’s slides come from that source but he has access to all sorts of good stuff so I wanted to take advantage of that. He was kind enough to send me a PDF of his presentation so that is what is being presented in this article. 

October 23, 2022: U.S. 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical and World Precipitation

October 24, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

 Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

...A robust low pressure system is bringing the first widespread wintry
weather event of the season across the northern and central Rockies into 
the northern High Plains...

...Severe weather is possible tonight over the eastern portion of the
northern to central Plains...

...Another low pressure system will bring a quick round of heavy rain,
strong to severe thunderstorms across the central U.S. Monday and
Tuesday...

October 22, 2022: U.S. 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical and World Precipitation

October 23, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

...A robust low pressure system will bring the first widespread wintry
weather event of the season across the Cascades, northern and central
Rockies as well as the northern High Plains through the weekend into
Monday...

...Much colder air will surge across the western U.S. while much above
normal temperatures surge north into the upper Midwest and the Great
Lakes...

...Fire weather risk is critical over parts of the central Plains...

October 21, 2022 Looking Ahead 28 Days Plus our usual 48-hour report.

October 22, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

NOAA updates many of its weather outlooks daily or even more frequently and in many cases issues a discussion with those outlooks. We provide a daily report which focuses on the shorter-term predictions but also has links to all the partial-month outlooks. Because WordPress does not provide the ability to have these maps automatically updated, our daily report shows some of the maps which we update each evening plus the links to the other important weather forecast Maps.

Once a week we show many of the actual forecast maps not just provide the links to these maps. This makes it easier for the reader. Our report provides a separate forecast for Days1-5, Days 6 -10, Days 8 – 14, and weeks 3 and 4. This provides information that is useful to readers in terms of planning their activities for the next 28 days.

The week 3-4 outlook is only updated by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Service once a week on Friday. Thus, when we publish on Friday night, it provides a 28-day view of the future. What is important is that this is a longer-term view than one that is typically available in the media and online.

We also include In Part II of the article the other information from the daily 48-hour forecast article. Importantly, this time of the year, it includes updates on tropical events. In both Parts I and II we also include some worldwide forecasts.

It is important to recognize that the forecasts do not always work out as predicted. But in the article, there are links to obtain updated forecasts If you read this article a few days or more after it is published. And there will be a totally updated version next Friday.

NOAA Updates its Four Season Outlook on October 20, 2022 – Yet Another La Nina Winter

October 21, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Preparing to say goodbye to La Nina early in 2023. Now it looks like La Nina will remain until Spring.

Today is the third Thursday of the month so right on schedule NOAA has issued what I describe as their Four-Season Outlook. The information released also includes the Early Outlook for the single month of November plus the weather and drought outlook for the next three months.  I present the information issued and try to add context to it. It is quite a challenge for NOAA to address the subsequent month, the subsequent three-month period as well as successive three-month periods for a year or a bit more.

It is very useful to read the excellent discussion that NOAA issues with this Seasonal Outlook. NOAA seems to be more confident about making predictions beyond six months. They even predict a good monsoon next summer which they never do this far in advance.

I will be writing a subsequent article on the challenges to the Agriculture Sector in certain parts of CONUS.

October 20, 2022: U.S. 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical and World Precipitation

October 21, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this morning and the next 48 hours from this morning’s NWS Forecast.

...Above normal warmth in the Central U.S. through this weekend...

...Critical Fire Weather conditions for Montana and Wyoming...

...Increasing precipitation chances and decreasing temperatures in the
West this weekend...

October 19, 2022: U.S. 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical and World Precipitation

October 20, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this morning and the next 48 hours from this morning’s NWS Forecast.

...Record breaking cold will continue through Thursday morning in the
Southeast...

...Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories are in effect for portions of the
Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Ohio River Valley...

...Dry weather will lead to Elevated to Critical Fire Weather conditions
for the Central and Northern Plains and the Lower Ohio River Valley
through Thursday...

October 18, 2022: U.S. 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical and World Precipitation

October 19, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this morning and the next 48 hours from this morning’s NWS Forecast.

...Widespread record-breaking cold early Wednesday morning across the
Mid/Lower Mississippi Valley, Central/Southern Appalachians and
Southeast...

...Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories in effect for the Southern Plains,
Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, Southeast, and Mid-Atlantic...

...Scattered Flash Flooding possible for portions of Maine through
tonight...

October 17, 2022: U.S. 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical and World Precipitation

October 18, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this morning and the next 48 hours from this morning’s NWS Forecast.

...Widespread record tying/breaking morning lows will bring first freeze
of the season to portions of the Midwest and South...

...Wintry precipitation continues for the Great Lakes Region...

...Heavy rain forecast for Maine on Tuesday, with scattered instances of
flash flooding possible...

October 16, 2022: U.S. 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical and World Precipitation

October 17, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this morning and the next 48 hours from this morning’s NWS Forecast.

...Flash flooding concerns for southern Texas today then Maine on
Tuesday...

...Unsettled and windy weather will spread from the Great Lakes to New
England over next couple of days...

...Cold air sweeps through eastern half of the country while record warmth
continues across Northwest...