Weather Forecast: Today, Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Five-Day Forecast for the World: posted February 24, 2023

February 24, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 3:30 p.m. EST Friday, February 24, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 AM EST Fri Feb 24 2023

Valid 12Z Fri Feb 24 2023 – 12Z Sun Feb 26 2023

…An unusually cold and slow-moving winter storm to bring very heavy
snowfall and strong winds to California and adjacent areas of the West
through Saturday…

…Heavy rainfall and flooding will be possible for parts of southern
California…

…Heavy snow possible for Northwest mountains later this weekend…

…Temperatures to remain above normal in the East this weekend…

Weather Forecast: Today, Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Five-Day Forecast for the World: posted February 23, 2023

February 23, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 1:05 p.m. Thursday, February 23, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EST Thu Feb 23 2023

Valid 00Z Fri Feb 24 2023 – 00Z Sun Feb 26 2023

…Snow and ice to gradually taper down over the Northeast on Friday…

…An unusually cold and slow-moving winter storm to bring very heavy
snowfall and strong winds to California and adjacent areas of the West
through Friday and into the start of the weekend…

…Heavy rainfall and flooding will be possible for parts of southern
California…

…Record-breaking warmth over the East to come to an end, but
temperatures to remain above normal this weekend…

Weather Forecast: Today, Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Five-Day Forecast for the World: posted February 22, 2023

February 22, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 3:45 p.m. Wednesday, February 22, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
224 PM EST Wed Feb 22 2023

Valid 00Z Thu Feb 23 2023 – 00Z Sat Feb 25 2023

…Significant coast-to-coast winter storm will continue to produce
widespread heavy snow and blizzard conditions across portions of the West
and the Northern Plains…

…A swath of heavy snow and locally significant ice will stretch from the
Upper Midwest to the Northeast…

…Strong to locally severe thunderstorms, and heavy rainfall will impact
portions of the Midwest through tonight…

...Record-breaking warmth expected over the East going through Thursday as
extreme cold hits the Northern Plains and the Intermountain West…

Weather Forecast: Today, Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Five-Day Forecast for the World: posted February 21, 2023

February 21, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
259 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2023

Valid 00Z Wed Feb 22 2023 – 00Z Fri Feb 24 2023

…A major winter storm is expected to deliver a large swath of heavy snow
from the West Coast to the Northeast through Thursday; freezing rain from
the upper Midwest through the lower Great Lakes into Nee England…

…Widespread very strong, gusty winds expected across the West and
adjacent High Plains…

…Heavy rain with the potential for scattered flash flooding and severe
weather for the Midwest and Plains Wednesday…

…Widespread record-breaking warmth expected in the East and much below
average cold in the West through mid-week…

Our Report on the JAMSTEC Three-Season Forecast – February 20, 2023

February 20, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

The Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, or JAMSTEC, is a Japanese national research institute for marine-earth science and technology

From the JAMSTEC Discussion:

“The SINTEX-F ensemble mean predicts that the La Niña-like state will gradually decay and an El Niño will occur in May. However, there is a large uncertainty in the predictions of the amplitude. In particular, the ensemble mean of the SINTEX-F2-3DVAR version predicts a relatively weak El Niño.”

Although it is a World forecast, it includes a forecast for North America since North America is part of the World.

Weather Forecast: Today, Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Five-Day Forecast for the World: posted February 20, 2023

February 20, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 3:20 p.m. EST Monday, February 20, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2023

Valid 00Z Tue Feb 21 2023 – 00Z Thu Feb 23 2023

…A major winter storm will spread a large swath of heavy snow from the
West Coast to the Northeast through Thursday…

…Clipper system to bring light to moderate snow to the Upper Midwest,
Great Lakes and interior Northeast…

…Widespread record breaking cold in the West and record breaking warmth
in the East are possible on Wednesday and Thursday…

Looking Back at January 2023 published on February 19, 2023

February 19, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

I realize that we are past mid-Februray and I recently presented the NOAA Seasonal Outlook, but it makes sense to review January of this year. In this article, I will first take a global perspective and here I rely on the large volume of information that is issued by NOAA (NCEI Div) and then I will take a look at the state rankings in January. The state rankings look at how each state’s January 2023 temperature or precipitation fits in terms of its 129 years of recent history.

Although NCEI seems to think that the important information about January is that it was the seventh warmest on record, that may fall into the category of a given and we will discuss that at the beginning of the article. What I found most interesting was the information on sea ice.

U.S. and Global Weather were very different in January of 2023

Weather Forecast: Today, Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Five-Day Forecast for the World: posted February 19, 2023

February 19, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 3:15 p.m. EST Sunday, February 19, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
307 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2023

Valid 00Z Mon Feb 20 2023 – 00Z Wed Feb 22 2023

…Clipper system to bring light to moderate snow to the Upper Midwest,
Great Lakes and interior Northeast…

…Winter storm will bring heavy snow and strong winds to much of the
West, the Northern/Central Plains and Upper Midwest through Midweek…

Weather Forecast: Today, Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Five-Day Forecast for the World: posted February 18, 2023

February 17, 2023Posted inweather1 Comment

Updated at 3:30 p.m. EST Saturday, February 18, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast. The article also provides information on the current Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) Event.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
306 PM EST Sat Feb 18 2023

Valid 00Z Sun Feb 19 2023 – 00Z Tue Feb 21 2023

…Locally heavy snow to spread across the high terrain of the Northern
Rockies and Northwest…

NOAA Updates it’s Four-Season Outlook On February 16, 2023 – Potential El Niño impacts were considered in the outlooks for autumn 2023 and next winter

February 17, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 3:05 p.m. EST February 17, 2023 to incorporate information on the latest Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event

On the third Thursday of the month right on schedule NOAA issued what I describe as their Four-Season Outlook. The information released also included the MId-Month Outlook for the single month of March plus the weather and drought outlook for the next three months.  I present the information issued and try to add context to it. It is quite a challenge for NOAA to address the subsequent month, the subsequent three-month period as well as successive three-month periods for a year or a bit more.

It is very useful to read the excellent discussion that NOAA issues with this Seasonal Outlook. The CPC/IRI analysis suggests that ENSO will very soon return to Neutral with a La Nino bias and gradually transition to true Neutral, Neutral with an El Nino bias, and then solidly El Nino. Confidence in the first part of that sequence of transitions is higher than in the latter part of the sequence.