NOAA Updates it’s ENSO Outlook on December 8, 2022

December 9, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 3:45 p.m. December 9, 2022 to complete certain edits that were not completed at the time this article was published. They add a little more clarity to the discussion.

On the second Thursday of every month, NOAA issues its analysis of the status of ENSO. This includes determining the Alert System Status. Although the current status remains the same i.e.  La Nina Advisory, the forecast has again been adjusted slightly from the prior month. There is some disagreement on when this La Nina will end with the best guess being perhaps March. But some meteorological agencies believe it could be sooner than that.

But I have actually seen only a few signs of it starting to happen. But all the meteorologists agree that it will.  Could they all be wrong? Probably not.

Will this La Nina transition quickly to the El Nino phase? That would be unusual but some of the models suggest this will happen.

Weather Forecast: Today, Tomorrow, Five Days, 10 Days U.S. and World December 9, 2022

December 9, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 3:04 p.m. EST December 9, 2022

Here is what we are paying attention to today and the next 48 hours from Friday Afternoon’s NWS Forecast. During the week we publish each morning. On Weekends, we will publish late Friday night and do updates during the weekend. Either way, you will have current forecasts with a longer forecast on the weekends. This is a combination of a U.S. plus World Weather Article.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
250 PM EST Fri Dec 09 2022

Valid 00Z Sat Dec 10 2022 - 00Z Mon Dec 12 2022

...Major storm system to bring heavy mountain snow and coastal rain to the
West this weekend...

...Episodes of moderate to locally heavy rain possible as showers and
thunderstorms continue for the South...

...Wintry weather expected to enter the Northeast early Sunday...

Weather Forecast: Tonight, Tomorrow, Five Days, 10 Days U.S. and World December 7, 2022

December 8, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 6:05 p.m. December 8, 2022 to include the afternoon NWS 48 hour forecast. We will publish again tonight but also we will also publish the ENSO Update.

Here is what we are paying attention to this afternoon and the next 48 hours from Thursday Afternoon’s NWS Forecast. During the week we will publish each evening. On Weekends, we will publish Friday night and do updates during the weekend. Either way, you will have current forecasts with a longer forecast on the weekends. This is a combination of a U.S. plus World Weather Article.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
309 PM EST Thu Dec 08 2022

Valid 00Z Fri Dec 09 2022 - 00Z Sun Dec 11 2022

...Episodes of moderate to heavy rain expected to track across the
Southern Plains to the Mid-Mississippi Valley the next couple of days...

...Wintry weather spreading into the Central/Northern Plains today and
into the Upper Midwest on Friday...

...Heavy precipitation expected for the Pacific Northwest and northern
California today before significant mountain snowfall arrives tomorrow...



















	




	
	

		Weather Forecast: Tonight, Tomorrow, Five Days, 10 Days U.S. and World December 6, 2022	





		
			
		
		December 7, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments




	
Updated at 4:37 p.m. EST December 7, 2022


Here is what we are paying attention to this afternoon and the next 48 hours from Wednesday Afternoon’s NWS Forecast. During the week we will publish each evening. On Weekends, we will publish Friday night and do updates during the weekend. Either way, you will have current forecasts with a longer forecast on the weekends. This is a combination of a U.S. plus World Weather Article.


Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
305 PM EST Wed Dec 07 2022

Valid 00Z Thu Dec 08 2022 - 00Z Sat Dec 10 2022

...Heavy rain and marginal flash flooding threat across the Central Plains
through Thursday morning...

...Wintry weather spreading into the Central/Northern Plains tonight into
tomorrow...

...Next round of heavy precipitation expected to reach the Pacific
Northwest later tonight before spreading inland and down into California
Thursday night into early Friday...




















	




	
	

		Looking Ahead 28 Days from December 2, 2022 Plus Weekend Report	





		
			
		
		December 3, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments




	
Updated at 4:40 p.m. EST on December 5, 2022


Once a week we show many of the actual forecast maps not just provide the links to these maps. This makes it easier for the reader. Our report provides a separate forecast for Days 1 and 2, Days  1-5, Days 6 -10, Days 8 – 14, and weeks 3 and 4. We also include a next-day and 10-Day Global Average Temperature and Cumulative Precipitation Forecast. This provides information that is useful to readers in terms of planning their activities for the weekend and the next 28 days. I will update the article with more recent short-term forecasts: Saturday through Monday


We see the expected movement of cold air from west to east of the pattern described in our prior Friday article and perhaps the area impacted shrinking in Weeks 3 and 4. It is quite similar to the overall Outlook predicted when the December Outlook was updated on Wednesday. Precipitation is expansive at first but the southern tier drought pattern gets started in Weeks 3 and 4. We had concerns about the 28-Day Outlook last week and did an experiment where we added the daily updates of the 6 – 10 and 8 – 14 day forecasts each day through Monday. We did not learn too much but I think we are seeing that the forecast last week may have been just a little bit early with its forecast as the flow seems smoother this week. But it may be that they actually nailed it last week. The maps are easy to read. But the maps reflect compromises by the forecasters. They are dealing with conflicting results from their various tools. But they can only produce one map (or that is all they issue). There is a discussion for the 6 – 10 day and 8 – 14 day maps but I do not include them to keep the size of the article reasonable. The links provided would take you to those discussions except on weekends as they are not issued on weekends. I could update those maps on Mondays (like I did last week) but it is a lot of work for me and most readers would not come back on Monday to see the comparison and I am not always available to do an update when NOAA issues their Monday version of the maps with their discussions until later in the day. But the links are there for the curious.


When we publish on Friday night, it provides a 28-day view of the future. What is important is that this is a longer-term view than one that is typically available in the Media and online. The amount of information about weather provided to the general public is quite limited. It is available to the public. But most do not have the time or level of interest to seek it out. My articles are at an intermediate level between what is generally available from the Media (ten-day forecasts and a good explanation for the first couple of days and the information used by meteorologists to produce these forecasts for general distribution. So I focus on longer timeframes and more depth into why the forecasts are what they are.





















	




	
	

		NOAA Updates it’s December 2022 Outlook on November 30, 2022	





		
			
		
		December 1, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments




	
Wildfire Outlooks Updated at 7:50 pm EST December 1, 2022 (It gradually increases through March but is limited to two areas).


At the end of every month, NOAA updates its Outlook for the following month which in this case is December. They also issue a Drought Outlook for the following month. We are reporting on that this morning.


There have been some significant changes in the Outlook for December and these are addressed in the NOAA Discussion so it is well worth reading. We highlighted some of the important changes within the NOAA Discussion.  Of particular interest is the increased penetration of modified Artic air into the Lower 48 States (CONUS) and wet Pacific air to provide for a wet Northwest extending farther south along the West Coast. We end up with a wet, dry, wet, dry pattern extending NE to SE with a tendency for there to be wet Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.


The CLIMAS Podcast discusses some of the weather transitions we have seen and what may develop as this La Nina finally transitions to ENSO Neutral.


The article includes the Drought Outlook for December. We have also included the current fire incidents (not many) and four months of Wildland Fire Potential Outlooks and also a map showing the year-to-date precipitation in the West. We also provide the Week 2/3 Tropical Outlook for the World.



















	




	
	

		U.S. 48-Hour and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks, Tropical, and World Weather –  Updated during December 1 and 2, 2022	





		
			
		
		December 1, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments




	
Here is what we are paying attention to tonight (Updated at 5:40 pm EST December 2, 2022) and the next 48 hours from Friday Afternoon’s NWS Forecast. We may do some additional updating on this article but it will be replaced tonight or early Saturday morning with the 28-Day Outlook so look for it Econcurrents.com Author Sig Silber.


...Critical Fire Weather threat for parts of the Central Plains...

...Coastal rain and heavy mountain snow likely in the West...

...Cool down in store for northern tier and eastern half of country this
weekend...




















	




	
	

		A look back at October 2022 State Rankings in the U.S.	





		
			
		
		November 30, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments




	
I realize that soon we will be looking back at November but it makes sense to look back at October. We should have done it a couple of weeks ago when we looked at October from a global perspective.


State ranking is interesting because it is not based on how the climate of the US is changing but on how the climate of each state compares to other states. But it does this by looking at how the climate of a state for a given period of time compares to the state’s 128-year recent history. There are many ways to present data and I like this approach a lot.


In this article, we look at the month of October 2022 and the year-to-date data for 2022 through October.



















	




	
	

		November 29-30, 2022: U.S. 48-Hour and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks, Tropical, and World Weather	





		
			
		
		November 29, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments




	
Updated on Tuesday November 29, 2022


Here is what we are paying attention to tonight and the next 48 hours from Tuesday Afternoon’s NWS Forecast.


...Heavy snow for the Cascades, Sierra and Northern Rockies...

...There are moderate flash flooding and severe weather threats over
portions of the Lower Mississippi & Tennessee Valleys and Southeast
tonight...




















	




	
	

		Looking Ahead 28 Days from November 25, 2022 Plus Weekend Report	





		
			
		
		November 26, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments




	
Updated at 9:30 p.m. EST November 28, 2027.  Our Monday – Tuesday 48-Hour forecast will be published soon.  And there will be an updated Outlook for the Month of December issued by NOAA CPC Wednesday and we will report on that Wednesday evening/Thursday morning.


Once a week we show many of the actual forecast maps not just provide the links to these maps. This makes it easier for the reader. Our report provides a separate forecast for Days 1 and 2, Days  1-5, Days 6 -10, Days 8 – 14, and weeks 3 and 4. We also include a next-day and 10-Day World Temperature and Precipitation Forecast. This provides information that is useful to readers in terms of planning their activities for the weekend and the next 28 days. Saturday through Monday I will update the article with more recent short-term forecasts.


Because like last week there is a major change in the forecast shown mid-month (and last week the 6 to 14 Day part of the outlook was dramatically changed on the Monday following Friday), I have included excerpts from the discussions at the beginning of the article as you will see. This will allow us to track how that part of the Outlook might change over the weekend.


The comments within the article discuss what we observed.


When we publish on Friday night, it provides a 28-day view of the future. What is important is that this is a longer-term view than one that is typically available in the media and online.