Looking Back at January 2023 published on February 19, 2023

February 19, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

I realize that we are past mid-Februray and I recently presented the NOAA Seasonal Outlook, but it makes sense to review January of this year. In this article, I will first take a global perspective and here I rely on the large volume of information that is issued by NOAA (NCEI Div) and then I will take a look at the state rankings in January. The state rankings look at how each state’s January 2023 temperature or precipitation fits in terms of its 129 years of recent history.

Although NCEI seems to think that the important information about January is that it was the seventh warmest on record, that may fall into the category of a given and we will discuss that at the beginning of the article. What I found most interesting was the information on sea ice.

U.S. and Global Weather were very different in January of 2023

Weather Forecast: Today, Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Five-Day Forecast for the World: posted February 19, 2023

February 19, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 3:15 p.m. EST Sunday, February 19, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
307 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2023

Valid 00Z Mon Feb 20 2023 – 00Z Wed Feb 22 2023

…Clipper system to bring light to moderate snow to the Upper Midwest,
Great Lakes and interior Northeast…

…Winter storm will bring heavy snow and strong winds to much of the
West, the Northern/Central Plains and Upper Midwest through Midweek…

Weather Forecast: Today, Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Five-Day Forecast for the World: posted February 18, 2023

February 17, 2023Posted inweather1 Comment

Updated at 3:30 p.m. EST Saturday, February 18, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast. The article also provides information on the current Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) Event.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
306 PM EST Sat Feb 18 2023

Valid 00Z Sun Feb 19 2023 – 00Z Tue Feb 21 2023

…Locally heavy snow to spread across the high terrain of the Northern
Rockies and Northwest…

NOAA Updates it’s Four-Season Outlook On February 16, 2023 – Potential El Niño impacts were considered in the outlooks for autumn 2023 and next winter

February 17, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 3:05 p.m. EST February 17, 2023 to incorporate information on the latest Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event

On the third Thursday of the month right on schedule NOAA issued what I describe as their Four-Season Outlook. The information released also included the MId-Month Outlook for the single month of March plus the weather and drought outlook for the next three months.  I present the information issued and try to add context to it. It is quite a challenge for NOAA to address the subsequent month, the subsequent three-month period as well as successive three-month periods for a year or a bit more.

It is very useful to read the excellent discussion that NOAA issues with this Seasonal Outlook. The CPC/IRI analysis suggests that ENSO will very soon return to Neutral with a La Nino bias and gradually transition to true Neutral, Neutral with an El Nino bias, and then solidly El Nino. Confidence in the first part of that sequence of transitions is higher than in the latter part of the sequence.

Weather Forecast: Today, Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Five-Day Forecast for the World: posted February 17, 2023

February 17, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 2:42 p.m. EST Friday, February 17, 2023 to incorporate information on the latest Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event. Updated at 3:34 p.m. EST Friday 17, 2023 to incorporate the afternoon NWS forecast.

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
227 PM EST Fri Feb 17 2023

Valid 00Z Sat Feb 18 2023 – 00Z Mon Feb 20 2023

…Locally heavy snow to spread across the high terrain of the Northern
Rockies and Northwest…

Weather Forecast: Today, Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Five-Day Forecast for the World: posted February 16, 2023

February 16, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 4:35 p.m. EST Wednesday February 16, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
244 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2023

Valid 00Z Fri Feb 17 2023 – 00Z Sun Feb 19 2023

…A stripe of snow, sleet, and freezing rain to stretch from the Great
Lakes to northern New England into Friday…

…Severe thunderstorms and flash flooding possible through tonight from
the Ohio/Tennessee valleys to the central Gulf Coast…

Weather Forecast: Today, Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Five-Day Forecast for the World: posted February 15, 2023

February 15, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 3:52 p.m. EST  Wednesday, February 15, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
317 PM EST Wed Feb 15 2023

Valid 00Z Thu Feb 16 2023 – 00Z Sat Feb 18 2023

…A swath of snow is forecast to stretch from the Four Corners to the
lower Great Lakes through early Friday as a low pressure system tracks
rapidly across the central part of the country…

…Strong to severe thunderstorms and areas of heavy rainfall will impact
portions of the Arklatex/Lower Mississippi Valley across the Mid-South and
into the Tennessee/Ohio Valley tonight through early Friday…

…Critical Fire Weather for the TX Big Bend…

Weather Forecast: Today, Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Five-Day Forecast for the World: posted February 14, 2023

February 14, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 3:29 p.m. Tuesday, February 14, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
252 PM EST Tue Feb 14 2023

Valid 00Z Wed Feb 15 2023 – 00Z Fri Feb 17 2023

…Strong low pressure is expected to bring heavy snow and possibly
blizzard conditions for portions of the northern Plains and upper
Mississippi Valley tonight into Wednesday…

…A new area of low pressure pivoting across the Southwest will bring
much colder temperatures and heavy snow to the Four Corners region through
Wednesday…

…Low pressure ejecting from the southern Plains to the Ohio Valley will
bring snow from the central High Plains to portions of the Midwest and
Great Lakes Wednesday into Thursday…

…Strong to severe thunderstorms and areas of heavy rainfall will impact
areas from the Arklatex and lower Mississippi Valley through the Mid-South
and Ohio Valley Wednesday into Thursday…

Weather Forecast: Today, Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Five-Day Forecast for the World: posted February 13, 2023

February 13, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 2:54 p.m. Monday, February 13, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
223 PM EST Mon Feb 13 2023

Valid 00Z Tue Feb 14 2023 – 00Z Thu Feb 16 2023

…The recent series of strong upper lows affecting the Lower 48 will
continue over the next two days with active weather across much of the
western to central U.S…

..Blizzard conditions possible across portions of the Northern
Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley Tuesday night into Wednesday, while heavy
snows are likely through the higher terrain of the west into the Central
High Plains…

…A sharp temperature contrast across the Lower 48 with much below
average temperatures across the west and much above average temperatures
from the central to eastern U.S…

Weather Forecast: Today, Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Five-Day Forecast for the World: posted February 12, 2023

February 12, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 3:53 p.m. Sunday, February 12, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EST Sun Feb 12 2023

Valid 00Z Mon Feb 13 2023 – 00Z Wed Feb 15 2023

…Unsettled weather will expand across the West through the next couple
of days with heavy mountain snows over the Four-Corners and along the
Cascades…

…A low pressure system will trigger an expanding area of showers and
thunderstorms over the Central/Southern Plains Monday night into Tuesday…

…Unseasonably mild and mostly tranquil weather for the eastern half of
the country to start the week…