NOAA Updates it’s Four-Season Outlook on March 16, 2023 – Entering ENSO Neutral but it may switch to El Nino after the Summer

March 17, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

On the third Thursday of the month right on schedule NOAA issued what I describe as their Four-Season Outlook. The information released also included the Mid-Month Outlook for the single month of April plus the weather and drought outlook for the next three months.  I present the information issued and try to add context to it. It is quite a challenge for NOAA to address the subsequent month, the subsequent three-month period as well as successive three-month periods for a year or a bit more.

It is very useful to read the excellent discussion that NOAA issues with this Seasonal Outlook.

Ocean conditions no longer reflect La Nina but the atmosphere still has some lingering La Nina characteristics. ENSO Neutral will be the prevailing condition but its impacts are less during the Spring and Summer Seasons. The Southwest Monsoon may start late. The outlook partially reflects El Nino conditions beginning in the Autumn of 2023. We may see more El Nino impacts reflected in the Outlook next month if the confidence in an El Nino gradually increases as we pass through the Spring Prediction Barrier (SPB).

Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Five-Day Forecast for the World: posted March 17, 2023

March 17, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 3:40 p.m. EDT March 17, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
328 PM EDT Fri Mar 17 2023

Valid 00Z Sat Mar 18 2023 – 00Z Mon Mar 20 2023

…Heavy showers and thunderstorms will impact portions of the eastern
Gulf Coast and Southeast tonight into Saturday…

…Heavy lake-effect snow and snow squalls to impact areas of the Great
Lakes, Ohio Valley and Northeast this weekend…

…Below to much below normal temperatures expected across much of the
central and eastern U.S. this weekend…

Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Five-Day Forecast for the World: posted March 16, 2023

March 16, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 6:10 p.m. Thursday, March 16, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
349 PM EDT Thu Mar 16 2023

Valid 00Z Fri Mar 17 2023 – 00Z Sun Mar 19 2023

…Strong to severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall can be expected
through tonight across portions of the Southern Plains and Lower
Mississippi Valley…

…Heavy snow is expected over portions of the Upper Midwest and into the
Upper Peninsula of Michigan tonight through the first half of the
weekend…

…Much of the U.S. will see below to much below normal temperatures going
into the weekend…

Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Five-Day Forecast for the World: posted March 15, 2023

March 15, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 3:47 p.m. EDT on Wednesday, March 15, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
336 PM EDT Wed Mar 15 2023

Valid 00Z Thu Mar 16 2023 – 00Z Sat Mar 18 2023

…Heavy snow to impact the central Rockies tonight into Thursday, while
also spreading across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes through Friday…

…Severe thunderstorms and instances of flash flooding possible across
parts of the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley Thursday into
Thursday night…

…Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories in effect across the Southeast,
with well below average temperatures shifting to much of the central U.S.
by the end of the week…

Weather Forecast: Today, Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Five-Day Forecast for the World: posted March 14, 2023

March 14, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 9:23 p.m. EDT Tuesday March 14, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
346 PM EDT Tue Mar 14 2023

Valid 00Z Wed Mar 15 2023 – 00Z Fri Mar 17 2023

…Heavy rain and the potential for significant flash flooding continues
for parts of central/southern California tonight…

…Gusty winds and periods of heavy snow lingers across New England
through early Wednesday…

…Next storm system to enter the central U.S. by Thursday to bring the
threat of heavy snow throughout the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes, with the
potential for flash flooding and severe weather across the Southern
Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley…

Weather Forecast: Today, Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Five-Day Forecast for the World: posted March 13, 2023

March 13, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 4:14 p.m. Monday March 13, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
322 PM EDT Mon Mar 13 2023

Valid 00Z Tue Mar 14 2023 – 00Z Thu Mar 16 2023

…Major Winter Storms to impact both the Northeast and California over
the next few days…

…Widespread Heavy snows likely from northeast Pennsylvania, far
northwest New Jersey, across much of New York State and much of New
England…

…Another Atmospheric River event taking aim at much California,
producing additional major flooding and high elevation heavy snows…

…A hard freeze possible Tuesday and Wednesday morning from the Tennessee
Valley into portions of the South and Southeast…

Weather Forecast: Today, Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Five-Day Forecast for the World: posted March 12, 2023

March 12, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 4 p.m. EDT, March 12, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Sun Mar 12 2023

Valid 00Z Mon Mar 13 2023 – 00Z Wed Mar 15 2023

…A potent storm system is expected to bring a moderate risk of flash
flooding and heavy mountain snow over parts of California…

…A wavy front is forecast to bring some severe thunderstorms across the
Southeast through tonight before intensifying rapidly into a potent
nor’easter off the New England coast on Tuesday with heavy wet snow inland
and high winds with rain/snow near the coast…

Weather Forecast: Today, Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Five-Day Forecast for the World: posted March 11, 2023

March 11, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 3:18 p.m. Saturday, March 11, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
252 PM EST Sat Mar 11 2023

Valid 00Z Sun Mar 12 2023 – 00Z Tue Mar 14 2023

…Heavy snow and difficult travel conditions over the Northern Plains and
Upper Midwest tonight…

…Severe weather possible in the Ozarks tonight and into the Southeast on
Sunday…

…Additional rain and mountain snow for the West Coast into Monday…

NOAA Updates it’s ENSO Forecast on March 9, 2023 – Leaving La Nina Say Hello to ENSO Neutral – But Maybe Not for Long

March 10, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

On the second Thursday of every month, NOAA issues its analysis of the status of ENSO. This includes determining the Alert System Status.  NOAA describes their Report as “ENSO Alert System Status: Final La Niña Advisory”

If you read the fine print you can see that we are still in the transition. We have left La Niña but are not fully into ENSO Neutral. The rules seem to be that when you no longer meet the criteria for La Nina or El Nino, you are in ENSO Neutral even if the atmosphere has not fully transitioned to ENSO Neutral. This makes a lot of sense since in general, the atmosphere reacts to the ocean conditions rather than the ocean reacting to the atmosphere but it is not as clear cut as what I have just stated. But typically the reaction of the atmosphere lags the change in the ocean condition and the change in the atmosphere confirms that the change in the ocean will impact weather patterns.

Some of the models suggest a rapid change to El Nino during or after the Summer. It seems likely that the ENSO Neutral Phase will at the very least have an El Nino bias.

We have published a shorter version of our usual article since there is little disagreement that we are transitioning away from La Nina. It is also a bit too early to be confident that we will have an El Nino next winter. We need to get past the Spring Prediction Barrier (SPB) to be confident about having an El Nino soon.

The article includes a very interesting post from the ENSO Blog. It is worth reading. Among other things, it discusses the situation off of Peru which might increase the chances for an El Nino but it also is a warning as to some potentially problematic weather conditions for Peru.

Weather Forecast: Today, Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Five-Day Forecast for the World: posted March 10, 2023

March 10, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 3:45 pm. Friday, March 10, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
159 PM EST Fri Mar 10 2023

Valid 00Z Sat Mar 11 2023 – 00Z Mon Mar 13 2023

…A heightened risk of excessive rainfall continues for Southern
California Friday night and renews across Central and Northern California
Saturday night into Sunday…

…Winter Storm/Blizzard Potential for the Northern Plains from Friday
evening through this weekend…

…There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley on Saturday…

…An elevated risk of excessive rainfall exists in and near the Mid-South
Saturday into Saturday night…