Our Report on the JAMSTEC Three-Season Forecast – June 16, 2023

June 16, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

The Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, or JAMSTEC, is a Japanese national research institute for marine-earth science and technology

From the JAMSTEC Discussion:

“As predicted, the recent observation confirms the occurrence of an El Niño. The SINTEX-F ensemble mean predicts that the El Niño will continue to develop in June–July, mature in August, and persist at least until the next boreal spring.” [JAMSTEC predicts an El Nino that is weaker than forecast by NOAA and most other Meteorological Agencies]

Although it is a World forecast, it includes a forecast for North America since North America is part of the World.

Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted June 16, 2023

June 16, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 7:39 p.m. EDT June 16, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
323 PM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023

Valid 00Z Sat Jun 17 2023 – 00Z Mon Jun 19 2023

…Heavy Rain, Flash Flooding and Severe Thunderstorms possible across
portions of the Central Plains, Gulf/East Coast…

…Record high temperatures possible across portions of central to
southern Texas and across portions of eastern Louisiana; Critical Fire
Weather likely over portions of the Southern Plains and Southwest…

…Smoke from Canadian wildfires to continue impacting the Upper
Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes, Midwest and interior Northeast…
 

Weekly Crop Report June 15, 2023 – It looks now more like an average crop.

June 15, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article is based primarily on the June 13, 2023, USDA Crop Bulletin which covers the June 5 to June 11 period of time. The USDA report usually becomes available on Tuesdays but I am a day late publishing my report.

It now seems more like an average crop.  Soybeans, which are a major crop are doing very well. Corn had a very good start but the quality of the crop has been compromised by drought.

We also include recent reports on the Broiler Hatchery and the Turkey Hatchery.

The article includes a short international review of agricultural conditions.

We also provide a short review of last week’s change in ENSO Status.

Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted June 15, 2023

June 15, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Jun 15 2023

Valid 12Z Thu Jun 15 2023 – 12Z Sat Jun 17 2023

…Numerous severe thunderstorms expected today across parts of the
central and southern Plains…

…Additional chances for flash flooding and severe weather throughout the
central/eastern Gulf Coast and Southeast, as well as into the central High
Plains through Friday…

…Mid-June heat wave underway across much of Texas and the Deep South…

…Poor air quality due to Canadian wildfire smoke forecast over the
northern Plains and Midwest today…

Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted June 14, 2023

June 14, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 4:09 p.m. EDT June 14, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2023

Valid 00Z Thu Jun 15 2023 - 00Z Sat Jun 17 2023

…Active stretch of heavy rain with the risk for flash flooding and
severe weather continues for the Southeast, Plains, and Rockies…

…Record-breaking and oppressive heat for portions of Texas and South
Florida…

…Unsettled and cool weather forecast across the Northeast; tranquil,
near-average conditions for the West Coast…

Looking back at May 2023 in the U.S.

June 13, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Every month NOAA takes a look at the prior month and sends me an email with their analysis. I am showing their full email report and I have added some additional images which support the report issued by NOAA. Some pretty interesting weather for May of 2023. This report also looks at the three-month period March through May which is meteorological spring. There has been a blocking pattern for some time which at least partially explains the west/east divide in the temperature and precipitation patterns. The NOAA report is very good and the state ranking graphics I added help to understand what has taken place as ENSO Neutral has tried to become El  Nino.

Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted June 13, 2023

June 12, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 10 31 p.m. EDT June 13, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Tue Jun 13 2023

Valid 00Z Wed Jun 14 2023 – 00Z Fri Jun 16 2023

…Severe thunderstorm and excessive rainfall threat located across the
Southern Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley, and Southeast over the next few
days…

…Locally heavy rain possible within scattered thunderstorms throughout
the Intermountain West, Rockies, and central High Plains today…

…Triple digit heat to expand throughout most of Texas by the end of the
week; Critical fire weather today across southern New Mexico…

Carbon Dioxide Levels Continue to Increase June 12, 2023

June 12, 2023Posted inClimateNo Comments

There is a constant flow of news about Global Warming. One indicator of the drivers of Global Warming is the concentration of carbon dioxide concentrations. NOAA Report. We have previously explained how carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases cause the atmosphere to warm. Knowing the current level of carbon dioxide in the air is essential. Based on the assumption that we have a well-mixed atmosphere one could in theory measure it anywhere. An isolated place like Mauna Loa in Hawaii is ideal except when the volcano is erupting. Usually, it is close to a perfect location. It is measured in more than one place since the assumption that the atmosphere is well-mixed is an approximation. NOAA reports on the level monthly and I thought this would be a good time to provide one of their reports and explain the Keeling Curve.

 

Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted June 12, 2023

June 11, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
345 AM EDT Mon Jun 12 2023

Valid 12Z Mon Jun 12 2023 – 12Z Wed Jun 14 2023

…Multi-day severe thunderstorm and flash flooding threat to continue
between the southern Plains and Southeast over the next few days…

…Instances of flash flooding and severe weather possible across parts of
the central High Plains and Mid-Atlantic today…

…Triple digit and potentially record-breaking heat expected throughout
much of central and southern Texas…

Colorado River and Utah Basins June 1, 2023 Condition Report Published on June 11, 2023 – Again Slightly Less Good than the Prior Month but Still Looking Very Good

June 11, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

The mission of the National Weather Service Colorado Basin River Forecast Center (CBRFC) is to produce river, flood and water supply forecasts for the Colorado Basin and the Great Basin in support of saving lives and property and to enhance the region’s environment and economy.

In this article, I am providing a summary of the situation as of June  1, 2023.  The situation is very good but flood risk from the snow meltdown has increased in a few places.

I have also included information on the current reservoir storage levels including a few that are outside of the Colorado River Basin.

The image below shows part of the area covered in the CBRFC Report.  The map shown here is only the Colorado Basin. The Eastern Great Basin is to the west of this map. The maps shown in the article cover both basins but are not as scenic as this map.