Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted June 21, 2023

June 21, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 3:57 p.m. Wednesday, June 21, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
302 PM EDT Wed Jun 21 2023

Valid 00Z Thu Jun 22 2023 – 00Z Sat Jun 24 2023

…Heat wave to persist from eastern/southern New Mexico across much of
Texas…

…Wet weather across much of the eastern U.S. and through the Plains…
 

Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted June 20, 2023

June 20, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 3:26 p.m. Tuesday, June 20, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
320 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2023

Valid 00Z Wed Jun 21 2023 – 00Z Fri Jun 23 2023

…Severe weather possible for parts of the Great Plains, Lower
Mississippi Valley and Southeast today and Wednesday…

…Excessive Rainfall expected in parts of the Great Plains, Lower
Mississippi Valley, Southeast, and Mid-Atlantic through Thursday…

…Record breaking heat wave persists in Texas…

Comparison of NOAA and JAMSTEC Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks for the U.S. June 19, 2023

June 19, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Recently we have published the NOAA (find it here) and the JAMSTEC (find it here) temperature and precipitation Outlooks. I have been letting my readers compare them but tonight I decided to see if I could make it easier for readers to do that.

So that comparison is in the body of this article. Surprisingly they are fairly similar aided by the forecast of an El Nino. They are by no means identical.

NOAA is predicting a stronger El Nino than predicted by JAMSTEC. This may explain some of the differences.  Looking at two different forecasts can help the reader understand the range of possibilities that are possible. Hopefully, readers will find this interesting.

Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted June 19, 2023

June 19, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 6.00 p.m. EDT Monday June 19, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
443 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2023

Valid 00Z Tue Jun 20 2023 – 00Z Thu Jun 22 2023

…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Southeast through Wednesday and over the Northern/Central High Plains on
Wednesday…

…There is a Sight Risk of Severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Southeast/Central Gulf Coast and Northern Plains from Monday to Tuesday…

…Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories over the Central and
Western Gulf Coast…

 

Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted June 18, 2023

June 18, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 5:10 p.m. EDT June 18, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
415 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2023

Valid 00Z Mon Jun 19 2023 – 00Z Wed Jun 21 2023

…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of Western
Ohio, Tennessee, Middle/Lower Mississippi Valleys, and Southeast on Sunday
evening that will migrate eastward to Southern Appalachians and southern
Mid-Atlantic by Tuesday…

…There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys/Central Gulf Coast on Sunday;
Sight Risk of Severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southeast/Central
Gulf Coast on Monday...

…Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories over the Central and
Western Gulf Coast…

 

NOAA Updates their Seasonal Outlook – June 17, 2023

June 17, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

On the third Thursday of the month right on schedule NOAA issued what I describe as their Four-Season Outlook. The information released also included the Mid-Month Outlook for the single month of July plus the weather and drought outlook for the next three months.  I present the information issued by NOAA and try to add context to it. It is quite a challenge for NOAA to address the subsequent month, the subsequent three-month period as well as successive three-month periods for a year or a bit more. A seasonal drought outlook is also issued.

It is very useful to read the excellent discussion that NOAA issues with this Seasonal Outlook.  The overall level of confidence in the Seasonal Outlook is addressed in the NOAA discussion. It is best to read the full discussion but here are some of the highlights:

Re ENSO:

  • “NOAA’s CPC forecast calls for more than a 90 percent chance of El Niño persisting through JFM 2024 with a 56 percent chance of a strong El Niño (> 1.5 degrees C) during NDJ 2023.”

For July:

  • “Above normal temperatures are favored from the Four Corners region, across the central and southern Great Plains, the Southeast, and the Northeast.”
  • “A weakened monsoon during July across eastern Arizona and New Mexico is predicted”
  • “a strong subtropical ridge, which would favor above-normal precipitation from the southern Great Plains northward and into the Mid-Atlantic”
  • “a storm track across the northern Great Plains and into the Ohio River valley”

For JAS 2023:

  • “The highest probabilities (more than 50 percent) of above-normal temperatures are forecast across parts of California, the Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, Southwest, Gulf Coast, and East.”
  • “elevated probabilities of below-normal precipitation for parts of the Southwest, Pacific Northwest, and Great Lakes, while above-normal precipitation is favored across much of the Great Plains, parts of the Middle to Lower Mississippi Valley, Northern Rockies, and Florida Peninsula.”

Beyond JAS  2023:

  •  “Above-normal temperatures remain the most likely outcome throughout much of the U.S. from ASO to OND 2023.”
  •  “Beginning in NDJ 2023-24 through JFM 2024, predicted El Niño conditions result in enhanced chances for above-normal temperatures across the northern tier of the CONUS”
  •  “During the winter 2023-24, above-normal temperatures are favored across the East”
  •  “Precipitation outlooks during the fall 2023 through the winter 2023-24 relied upon El Niño composites and the consolidation tool with an increased chance of above (below)-normal precipitation across the southern (northern) tier of the CONUS.”
  •  “The largest probabilities (50 percent for above) are forecast across parts of the Southeast from NDJ 2023-24 through JFM 2024 based on a strong, reliable wet signal associated with El Niño.
  •  “During the spring and summer 2023, the precipitation outlooks are based mostly on decadal trends.”

Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted June 17, 2023

June 17, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Jun 17 2023

Valid 12Z Sat Jun 17 2023 – 12Z Mon Jun 19 2023

…Very rainy and stormy across the Southern Plains, Middle/Lower
Mississippi Valley and Southeast…

…Record setting heat possible from southern Texas to eastern Louisiana;
Critical Fire Weather likely over portions of the Southern Plains and
Southwest…

…Smoke from Canadian wildfires to continue impacting the Upper
Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes, Midwest, Northeast and Mid-Atlantic…

Our Report on the JAMSTEC Three-Season Forecast – June 16, 2023

June 16, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

The Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, or JAMSTEC, is a Japanese national research institute for marine-earth science and technology

From the JAMSTEC Discussion:

“As predicted, the recent observation confirms the occurrence of an El Niño. The SINTEX-F ensemble mean predicts that the El Niño will continue to develop in June–July, mature in August, and persist at least until the next boreal spring.” [JAMSTEC predicts an El Nino that is weaker than forecast by NOAA and most other Meteorological Agencies]

Although it is a World forecast, it includes a forecast for North America since North America is part of the World.

Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted June 16, 2023

June 16, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 7:39 p.m. EDT June 16, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
323 PM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023

Valid 00Z Sat Jun 17 2023 – 00Z Mon Jun 19 2023

…Heavy Rain, Flash Flooding and Severe Thunderstorms possible across
portions of the Central Plains, Gulf/East Coast…

…Record high temperatures possible across portions of central to
southern Texas and across portions of eastern Louisiana; Critical Fire
Weather likely over portions of the Southern Plains and Southwest…

…Smoke from Canadian wildfires to continue impacting the Upper
Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes, Midwest and interior Northeast…
 

Weekly Crop Report June 15, 2023 – It looks now more like an average crop.

June 15, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article is based primarily on the June 13, 2023, USDA Crop Bulletin which covers the June 5 to June 11 period of time. The USDA report usually becomes available on Tuesdays but I am a day late publishing my report.

It now seems more like an average crop.  Soybeans, which are a major crop are doing very well. Corn had a very good start but the quality of the crop has been compromised by drought.

We also include recent reports on the Broiler Hatchery and the Turkey Hatchery.

The article includes a short international review of agricultural conditions.

We also provide a short review of last week’s change in ENSO Status.