Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted July 16, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day
World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
421 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2023

Valid 00Z Mon Jul 17 2023 – 00Z Wed Jul 19 2023

…There is a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of New
England on Sunday…

…There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of New
England and Central Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley…

…Excessive Heat Warnings and Advisories from the Pacific Northwest,
California, and the Great Basin to parts of the Southern Plains, Central
Gulf Coast, and southern tip of Florida…

…Air Quality alerts over parts of the Northern High Plains, Upper
Midwest, and Ohio Valley…

NOAA Updates its ENSO Alert on July 13, 2023 – El Nino is here and 90% Likely to Last through Winter with a 20% Chance of a MegaNino

On the second Thursday of every month, NOAA issues its analysis of the status of ENSO. This includes determining the Alert System Status.  NOAA again describes their Report as “ENSO Alert System Status: El Nino Watch”

There is not much doubt that we have an El Nino. How long it lasts and its strength remains to be seen.

From the NOAA Analysis:

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER ENSO DISCUSSION

The second paragraph is what is important:

“The most recent IRI plume indicates El Niño will persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2023-24.  Forecasters favor continued growth of El Niño through the fall, peaking this winter with moderate-to-strong intensity (81% chance of November-January Niño-3.4 ≥1.0C).  An event that becomes “historically strong” (seasonally averaged Niño-3.4 ≥ 2.0C), rivaling the winters of 1997-98 or 2015-16, has an approximately 1 in 5 chance.  In summary, there is a greater than 90% chance that El Niño will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter.

We now provide additional detail.

CPC Probability Distribution

Here are the new forecast probabilities. This information in the past has been released twice a month and the first release is based on a survey of Meteorologists, the second is based on model results. The probabilities are for three-month periods e.g. JJA stands for June/July/August. The first forecast forecast is used to develop the Seasonal Outlook which will be issued next Thursday so that is what I am focusing on.

Here is the current release of the probabilities:

You can clearly see The forecast does not extend beyond FMA 2024 but one does see a slight tail-off in the probabilities for El Nino conditions in the Eastern Pacific after the winter season.

Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted July 15, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day
World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Jul 15 2023

Valid 12Z Sat Jul 15 2023 – 12Z Mon Jul 17 2023

…Dangerous heat wave to remain anchored over the West this weekend;
growing hotter in the South by early next week…

…Excessive Rainfall and severe weather to transpire across the eastern
half of the Lower 48…

…Canadian wildfire smoke is responsible for Air Quality alerts in parts
of the North Central U.S. and Ohio Valley…

Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted July 14, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day
World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Jul 14 2023

Valid 12Z Fri Jul 14 2023 - 12Z Sun Jul 16 2023

...Dangerous heat wave to stretch from the West Coast to the Gulf Coast;
at least 93 million people are under Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat
Advisories as of this morning....

...Friday features an expansive threat for Excessive Rainfall, highlighted
by a Moderate Risk for portions of the Northeast; severe weather likely in
the Central Plains...

...Saturday remains active with numerous heavy showers & storms in the
East; Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall in the southern High Plains...

Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted July 13, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day
World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023

Valid 00Z Fri Jul 14 2023 – 00Z Sun Jul 16 2023

…A couple rounds of heavy rain could trigger additional flash flooding
over interior New England through tonight…

…Additional rounds of severe weather and flash flooding persist across
the central Plains, mid-Mississippi Valley and into the eastern Gulf Coast
over the next couple days…

…Significant heat wave continues to expand across much of the western
and southern tier of the U.S….

Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted July 12, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day
World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
410 PM EDT Wed Jul 12 2023

Valid 00Z Thu Jul 13 2023 – 00Z Sat Jul 15 2023

…Additional rounds of severe weather and flash flooding persist across
the Mississippi Valley, Midwest, and Plains over the next couple days…

…Heavy rain potential returns to the Northeast Thursday…

…Building heat wave continues to expand across much of the western and
southern tier of the U.S….

Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted July 11, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information. (You can update this section here, but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

The color coding is as follows.   severewet, coldwarm, normal

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Jul 11 2023

Valid 12Z Tue Jul 11 2023 – 12Z Thu Jul 13 2023

…Additional rounds of severe weather and flash flooding persist across
the Plains and Midwest over the next few days…

…Anomalously hot Summer weather forecast throughout much of the Southern
Tier…

…Near average temperatures and generally tranquil conditions for the
Northeast and portions of the West…

Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted July 9, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
359 PM EDT Sun Jul 09 2023

Valid 00Z Mon Jul 10 2023 – 00Z Wed Jul 12 2023

…Heavy rain is likely to produce the potential for significant flash
flooding throughout parts of the Northeast tonight and into New England on
Monday…

…Additional rounds of severe weather and flash flooding persist across
the Central/Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley…

…Anomalously hot weather continues for portions of the Florida
Peninsula, Texas, and the Southwest…

Crop Report July 8. 2023 – Crop Condition Stabilizes.

Now Final.  Sorry for the delay. It was 90% complete when published last night but I wanted to take the time to adjust the commentary and swap out two graphics.

This article is based primarily on the July 5, 2023, 2023, USDA Crop Bulletin which covers the June 25 to July 2 period of time. The USDA report usually becomes available on Tuesdays but due to the Fourth of July Holiday, it was published on Wednesday. For some reason, I forgot to publish my article Wednesday night and I remembered to do that on Friday

It now seems more like an average crop but it has not gotten worse which is a relief. Both corn and soybeans had a very good start but the quality of the crop has been somewhat compromised by drought. Soybeans are doing a bit better than corn. The condition report was about the same this week which is good given the weather. The weather outlooks are mostly favorable.

We also include the recent report on peanut prices. I vary these reports to give readers information on different crops.

The article includes a short international review of agricultural conditions.

We begin with the National Agriculture Summary.  The Tables below the summary have additional data. The boxes with my comments may be incomplete so for crops of interest check the data out yourself to be sure.

Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted July 8, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
310 PM EDT Sat Jul 08 2023

Valid 00Z Sun Jul 09 2023 – 00Z Tue Jul 11 2023

…Heavy rain and instances of flash flooding likely across parts of the
Northeast on Sunday, with the threat lingering across New England on
Monday…

…Additional rounds of severe weather and flash flooding persist across
the Central/Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley through this
weekend…

…Anomalously hot weather continues for portions of the Southwest, West
Texas, interior Pacific Northwest, and Florida Peninsula…