Sig Silber

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Nov 12 2024
Valid 12Z Tue Nov 12 2024 – 12Z Thu Nov 14 2024

…An Atmospheric River will bring heavy, low elevation rain and high
elevation mountain snow to the Pacific Northwest and northern California
beginning Tuesday evening…

…Showers and thunderstorms will bring locally heavy rainfall and
isolated flash flooding concerns to the Lower Ohio, Tennessee, and
Mississippi Valleys Wednesday…

…Above average temperatures continue for much of the country, cold
fronts bring more seasonable temperatures for the Northeast and the West
today…

A frontal system moving through the West bringing light to moderate lower
elevation wintry mix and higher elevation snow to the northern Rockies and
Great Basin this morning will continue eastward today, with precipitation
chances spreading into the central Rockies by Tuesday evening. At the same
time, another Pacific frontal system and accompanying Atmospheric River
will approach the West, bringing a wave of Pacific moisture and triggering
increasingly heavier lower elevation/coastal rain and higher elevation
mountain snow. The system will move inland bringing an expanding area of
lower elevation/coastal rain and high elevation mountain snow to northern
California and a wintry mix into the northern Rockies and Great Basin
through Wednesday. Favorable upslope regions along the coastal ranges and
Cascades will see locally heavy rainfall and the threat of some isolated
flooding today, expanding southward into coastal northern California on
Wednesday.

Some lingering light rain/snow showers may continue through Tuesday
morning across the Interior Northeast and Maine as a low pressure system
departs the region. Some heavier showers and thunderstorms are also
expected along the central Gulf Coast as moist flow from the Gulf
continues along a wavy frontal boundary. More widespread precipitation
chances will begin to pick up Tuesday evening as the first frontal system
over the West begins to move eastward out over the Plains. Initially
isolated showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage overnight as
the system moves eastward towards the Mississippi Valley and Gulf moisture
return intensifies into Wednesday morning. More widespread storms with
locally heavy rainfall are expected across the Lower Ohio/Tennessee
Valleys, Mid-South, and into the Lower Mississippi Valley Wednesday, with
some isolated flash flooding possible especially given wet antecedent
conditions from recent rainfalls. More light to moderate rainfall is
likely over the Great Lakes with lower instability and available moisture.
The system will push eastward towards the Appalachians by Thursday
morning.

Much of the central and eastern U.S. will continue to see above average
high temperatures of 5-15 degrees over the next couple of days. Forecast
highs range from the 40s in the Great Lakes, 50s in the northern Plains,
60s for the central Plains, 70s for Texas and the Southeast, and 80s along
the Gulf Coast. Highs will be more seasonable for the Northeast and
Midwest Tuesday following a cold front passage as highs mainly remain in
the 40s and 50s. Cooler, more seasonable temperatures will also come to
the Carolinas and Southeast Wednesday, with highs dropping into the upper
50s to mid-60s. The multiple frontal systems will keep temperatures cooler
across most of the West as well, with highs Tuesday mostly in the 40s and
50s for the Pacific Northwest and interior locations, 60s for coastal
California, and 60s and 70s for the Desert Southwest. Conditions will
moderate by around 5-10 degrees on Wednesday.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Nov 11 2024
Valid 12Z Mon Nov 11 2024 – 12Z Wed Nov 13 2024

…An Atmospheric River will bring a couple rounds of heavy, lower
elevation rain and high elevation mountain snow to the Pacific Northwest
and northern California…

…Lingering precipitation chances for the Northeast and Carolinas Monday
with some locally heavier rainfall along the central Gulf Coast…

…Above average temperatures continue for much of the country, more
seasonable temperatures for the Northeast and the West on Tuesday…

A pair of Pacific storm systems will help to usher in waves of moisture
into the Pacific Northwest and northern California in an active
Atmospheric River pattern over the next couple of days. Moderate to heavy
coastal rain and high elevation mountain snow is already ongoing over the
Pacific Northwest this morning and will continue to spread inland as well
as into northern California throughout the day Monday. A moderate lower
elevation rain/wintry mix and higher elevation snow will also spread into
portions of the northern Rockies and Great Basin by Monday evening. Some
locally heavier snowfall totals of 8-12″+ will be possible for the
Cascades with more moderate totals elsewhere. Precipitation will linger
into Tuesday for the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies/Great Basin as
well as spread into the central Rockies as this system continues inland.
Then, on Tuesday evening, a second system will approach the Pacific
Northwest bringing the next wave of moisture inland. Showers and even some
thunderstorms along the coast and upslope portions of the Coastal Ranges
will lead to some heavier rainfall totals late Tuesday into early
Wednesday, with an isolated threat for flooding. Additional heavy snowfall
is also expected for the Cascades.

Some showers and thunderstorms will linger in the Carolinas and along the
central Gulf Coast ahead of a cold front pushing off the East Coast
through the day Monday. Higher moisture along the Gulf could lead to some
locally heavier downpours. A secondary cold front to the northwest will
also bring some additional light to moderate showers to the interior
Northeast, which may include a wintry mix by Monday evening. Elsewhere,
some isolated showers and storms will be possible across the
central/northern Plains and Mississippi Valley late Tuesday/early
Wednesday morning as the first storm system over the West reaches the
region.

Forecast high temperatures Monday continue to remain above average by
around 5-15 degrees for much of the country. Some of the most unseasonably
warm highs will be throughout New England, with highs in the 50s and 60s,
and the Mid-Atlantic, with highs into the 60s and 70s. Otherwise,
temperatures range from the 40s and 50s in the northern Plains/Midwest;
the 50s and 60s for the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, Great Basin,
and California; the 50s for the central Plains and Ohio Valley; and the
70s and 80s for the Desert Southwest, Texas, and the Southeast. A cold
front passing through the Northeast will bring much cooler, more
seasonable temperatures Tuesday, as highs fall into the 40s and 50s. The
Pacific system passing through the West will also bring some more
seasonable temperatures Tuesday, with highs falling into the 40s for the
Great Basin/northern Rockies and the 60s and 70s in the Desert Southwest.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Nov 10 2024
Valid 12Z Sun Nov 10 2024 – 12Z Tue Nov 12 2024

…Wet Sunday for much of the eastern U.S., including beneficial rainfall
for the Northeast…

…An Atmospheric River will bring heavy coastal rain and high elevation
snowfall to portions of the Pacific Northwest beginning Sunday night…

…Above average temperatures will continue into next week for most of the
country…

A broad area of showers and thunderstorms ahead of a low pressure
system/arcing frontal boundary through the Midwest south into the
Mississippi Valley early Sunday morning will continue eastward through the
day, bringing an expanding area of moderate to heavy rainfall over the
eastern U.S. The front will push eastward through the Ohio Valley/interior
Northeast and into New England and the Mid-Atlantic by Sunday evening,
bringing beneficial rainfall following many weeks of little to no
precipitation. Further south, the front will make slower progress and keep
additional storm chances focused over the Tennessee and Lower Mississippi
Valleys following heavy rain Saturday. Moisture streaming northward from
the Gulf, influenced in part by Tropical Storm Rafael, will lead to some
locally heavy downpours, with isolated flash flooding possible. A
localized Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) is in place over
central Louisiana where continued rainfall early Sunday over very
saturated grounds/ongoing flooding may lead to a few more scattered
instances of flash flooding. An additional area of showers and
thunderstorms is expected for portions of the coastal Carolinas/Georgia
and into Florida in vicinity of a wavy frontal boundary. Most of the
rainfall should come to an end by early Monday as the front begins to
clear the coast over the Northeast and moisture return decreases to the
south, though some lingering showers will remain possible for the interior
Northeast as a secondary cold front passes through.

Some light to moderate lower elevation rain showers and higher elevation
snows will continue over portions of the Pacific Northwest/northern
Rockies through Sunday afternoon as a wavy frontal boundary lingers in the
region. Then, a stronger Pacific storm system/Atmospheric River will
approach the Pacific Northwest Sunday evening bringing moderate to heavy
coastal rains by Sunday night. This system will continue inland into the
day Monday with an expanding area of precipitation across the Pacific
Northwest, northern Great Basin/Rockies, and northern/central California.
Favorable upslope areas along the coastal mountain ranges may see 2-3″ of
rain, with some potentially moderate to heavy accumulating snows for
higher elevations of the Cascades, Sierra Nevada, and northern Rockies.
Another system just beyond the current forecast period looks to bring
another round of heavy rain and mountain snows mid-week.

Most areas of the country will continue to see temperatures 5-15 degrees
above average over the next couple of days. Forecast highs Sunday range
from the 50s for the Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, northern
Rockies/Plains, Great Lakes, and New England; the 60s in California,
central Plains, Ohio Valley, and Mid-Atlantic; and the 70s and 80s for the
Desert Southwest, Texas, Lower Mississippi Valley, and the Gulf Coast.
Much of the East Coast will see even warmer highs on Monday as rain clears
out, with highs rising into the 60s for coastal New England and the 70s
for the Mid-Atlantic, Carolinas, and Georgia. One region that will remain
colder will be portions of the central/southern Rockies and High Plains
where grounds remain snow covered following this past Friday’s historic
storm, with highs mainly in the 40s to low 50s.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Nov 09 2024
Valid 12Z Sat Nov 09 2024 – 12Z Mon Nov 11 2024

…Widespread, potentially significant flash flooding possible in central
and southwestern Louisiana today…

…Showers and thunderstorms will bring heavy rain and the risk for flash
flooding to the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee/Ohio Valleys this
weekend…

…Atmospheric river to arrive across the Pacific Northwest on Sunday with
heavy coastal rains and high elevation snowfall...

…Above average temperatures continue for much of the country this
weekend…

A significant flash flooding event is anticipated today ahead of a low
pressure system/cold front moving eastward towards the Mississippi Valley
this morning that will slow and eventually stall as ridging builds
northward over the eastern U.S. Strong southerly flow ahead of the front
will continue to bring a fetch of deep, very moist air associated with
Tropical Storm Rafael northward over the region. Numerous showers and
thunderstorms producing very heavy downpours (rain rates 1-2″+ per hour)
are expected along and ahead of the front from the Lower Tennessee
Valley/Mid-South southwestward into the Lower Mississippi Valley and the
western Gulf Coast. A concentrated risk of locally significant heavy
rainfall totals of 3-6″, locally 10″, and widespread instances of flash
flooding is expected ahead of the front closer to the Gulf over
central/southwestern Louisiana, where a High Risk of Excessive Rainfall
(level 4/4) is in effect. A broader Slight Risk (level 2/4) covers the
rest of the region for more scattered instances of flash flooding. The
front will make some progress eastward Sunday, especially with northern
extent, bringing the heavy rainfall threat further eastward across the
Ohio and Tennessee Valleys while lingering through the Lower Mississippi
Valley. However, the more progressive nature of the front/storm movement
as well as a decreasing fetch of moisture should limit the flash flood
threat to a few isolated instances. While this moisture streaming
northward from Rafael will influence the threat for heavy rain, the storm
is located far offshore over the Gulf of Mexico and forecast by the
National Hurricane Center to remain offshore and dissipate over the next
few days.

Outside of this heavy rainfall threat, an expanding area of showers and
thunderstorms is forecast ahead of the low pressure system and an arcing
occluded/cold front lifting northeastward across the northern Plains,
Midwest, and Mississippi Valley on Saturday with some moderate amounts
possible. Some moderate snow may linger over portions of the central
Rockies in Colorado after a historic snowstorm the past couple days,
though most snow will have tapered off this morning as the low moves away.
The low pressure system/front will continue eastward on Sunday, bringing a
broad area of beneficial rainfall to the Northeast after weeks of little
to no precipitation. Showers and thunderstorms are also expected in
vicinity of a wavy frontal boundary along the coastal Southeast/Florida
this weekend. Elsewhere, an initial system pushing inland over the Pacific
Northwest will continue to bring moderate to heavy showers for lower
elevations with some very high elevation snow Saturday, and a wintry mix
and higher elevation snow spreading into the northern Rockies by Sunday
morning. Then, during the day Sunday, a stronger system and accompanying
Atmospheric River will begin to bring heavier rain with an isolated chance
of flooding to the Pacific Northwest, expected to last over the next
several days.

Most of the country will continue to see above average temperatures this
weekend outside of portions of the central/southern Rockies and High
Plains on Saturday, though temperatures will begin to recover here as well
by Sunday. Forecast highs will generally be in the 50s from the Pacific
Northwest east through the northern Rockies/Plains, Great Lakes, and into
New England; the 50s and 60s in the Great Basin, central Plains, Midwest,
and Mid-Atlantic; and the 70s and 80s in the Southwest, Texas, and the
Southeast. Aforementioned cooler temperatures in the 40s and 50s over the
central/southern Rockies and High Plains will moderate by 10 degrees or so
for most locations by Sunday.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Nov 08 2024
Valid 12Z Fri Nov 08 2024 – 12Z Sun Nov 10 2024

…Winter storm brings significant heavy snowfall and blizzard conditions
to portions of Colorado and New Mexico Friday…

…Showers and thunderstorms will bring the threat of flash flooding to
the central/southern Plains Friday and Lower Mississippi Valley Saturday…

…Above average temperatures continue for much of the country heading
into the weekend…

A significant heavy snow event is underway over portions of the
central/southern Rockies and High Plains early Friday. A vigorous
upper-level trough plunging southward has ushered in colder air from the
north as a low pressure system over western Texas helps to funnel moist
air from the Gulf northwestward over the region. The compact nature of the
upper low will help to sustain very heavy snow rates of up to 1-2″/hr
leading to snowfall totals of 4-8 inches for much of eastern Colorado and
northeastern New Mexico, with locally higher totals of 12-18″ for the
Palmer Divide and Raton Mesa and 18-24″ over higher elevations of the
Front Range mountains/foothills. The combination of heavy snow rates and
gusty winds will lead to blizzard conditions for some locations and create
difficult to impossible travel conditions for the I-25 corridor and
eastern Plains, where numerous area roads are already closed. The most
intense snowfall should begin to taper off overnight Friday, with some
lighter snow possibly lingering into Saturday morning.

Meanwhile to the east, on the warm side of the system, the influx of Gulf
moisture and increased instability will to lead to widespread showers and
thunderstorms producing very heavy rain over the next couple of days.
Storms currently over western Oklahoma and northwest Texas will continue
eastward along and ahead of an eastward moving cold front during the day
Friday. A Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) covers much of
Oklahoma and central/northern Texas where locally heavy downpours over
saturated grounds may lead to some scattered instances of flash flooding.
Showers and storms with more moderate rainfall and an isolated flash
flooding threat are expected more broadly over the central/southern
Plains. The low pressure system will move northeastward across the central
Plains Saturday with an expanding area of showers and thunderstorms along
an arcing occluded/cold front over the Midwest and Mississippi Valley.
Areas of the Lower Tennessee/Mississippi Valley will see more intense
storms feeding off higher instability and moisture streaming northward
from Hurricane Rafael over the Gulf of Mexico bringing additional rounds
of very heavy rainfall. Localized totals of 3-5″ over saturated grounds
from recent rains will lead to threat for more scattered instances of
flash flooding, with a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall in effect here as
well. While moisture from Rafael will help to increase this heavy rainfall
threat, the storm itself is currently forecast by the National Hurricane
Center to remain well offshore over the Gulf of Mexico and dissipate.

A Pacific system will bring increasing precipitation chances to the
Pacific Northwest Friday/Saturday with moderate to heavy rainfall possible
and snow for high elevations of the local mountains. Precipitation chances
with lower elevation rain and high elevation snow will spread into the
northern Rockies on Saturday. Elsewhere, some widely scattered light
showers are possible head of cold fronts over the interior Northeast and
coastal Southeast Friday. Temperature-wise, most of the country will
continue to see above average conditions outside of the Four Corners
Region and central/southern Plains under the influence of the deep
upper-low. Forecast highs over the central/eastern U.S. Friday will range
from the 50s and low 60s for the northern Plains/Midwest/New England, 60s
across the Middle Mississippi Valley/Ohio Valley, 60s and 70s for the
Mid-Atlantic, and 70s and 80s for the Southeast/Gulf Coast. Gusty winds
and extremely dry conditions over portions of the Mid-Atlantic and
southern New England have prompted Red Flag Warnings for the risk of
wildfires Friday. A cold front will bring cooler, more seasonable
temperatures to portions of the East Coast Saturday, with highs dropping
into the 40s and 50s for New England and the 50s and 60s in the
Mid-Atlantic. In the West, highs will be in the 50s and 60s for the
Northwest, Great Basin, and northern California with 70s into southern
California. As noted, temperatures will be much cooler and below average
in the Four Corners region as highs top out in the 40s and 50s, with 60s
and 70s into the Desert Southwest. Highs across the central/southern
Plains will be in the 30s and 40s Friday, warming a bit for the southern
High Plains into the 50s and 60s Saturday.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
351 AM EST
Valid 12Z Thu Nov 07 2024 – 12Z Sat Nov 09 2024

…Heavy snow expected to impact portions of Colorado and New Mexico while
heavy rain, severe weather, as well as increasingly windy conditions sweep
across the Southern Plains through the next couple of days…

…Heavy rain threat over the Southeast is expected to gradually diminish
by this evening…

…Hurricane Rafael is forecast to track more westward away from the
Florida Keys and into the Gulf Mexico through the next couple of days…

…Record warmth continues from the Mid-Atlantic down into the Southeast
and along the Gulf Coast…

Tropical moisture interacting with a disturbance under a broad channel of
southerly flow aloft has continued to produce heavy rainfall across the
Southeast this morning. The main dynamics associated with the disturbance
is forecast to track northeastward, allowing the heavy rain threat to
diminish by this evening as the disturbance tracks off the Carolina
coasts. WPC currently maintains a slight risk of heavy rain from eastern
Georgia into portions of South Carolina for today.

Farther south, tropical-storm-force winds and squally downpours associated
with rainbands from Hurricane Rafael were impacting the western portion of
the Florida Keys this morning. Rafael is forecast to track more toward
the west, allowing the tropical storm conditions over the Florida Keys to
gradually subside through the remainder of today.

Meanwhile, a winter storm continues to get organized across portions of
the central and southern Rockies and into the nearby High Plains. A
vigorous upper-level trough continues to plunge south and usher polar air
into the region while gradually develops a low pressure system over the
southern High Plains. The compact and vigorous nature of the upper low
will help sustain the snow in the general vicinity of Central/Southern
Rockies into the nearby High Plains (mostly within Colorado and New
Mexico) as the upper low rotates and lingers. If the upper low deepens
more than expected, the associated snow could linger in the same area
farther out in time. There is potential for a foot of snow to fall across
the Front Range of Colorado, while up to a few feet of wet snow is
possible farther south across the higher elevations near the Colorado-New
Mexico border and into northern New Mexico. Winter Storm Watches and
Warnings as well as Winter Weather Advisories have been expanded across
much of the aforementioned areas. In addition to producing snow, this
vigorous upper low could have changeable influences on the future track of
Rafael in the Gulf of Mexico. Please refer to NHC for the latest forecast
track on Rafael.

In addition to the heavy snow, this low pressure system will bring heavy
rain and severe weather farther east across the Southern Plains by later
today. The highest threat of heavy rain is forecast to be expanding
across western Texas toward southwestern Oklahoma tonight into Friday
morning when the low pressure system develops and intensifies over western
Texas as it tracks northward. A band of severe thunderstorms can also be
expected to sweep across western Texas ahead of a potent cold front. Much
of the central to southern High Plains will come under an increasing
threat of high winds as well especially by this evening into Friday
morning when the low pressure system deepens most rapidly. This could
result in gale force winds to accompany heavy snow on Friday across the
central High Plains in Colorado, while wind-swept rain impacts Oklahoma
and Kansas, and severe thundertorms sweep east across Texas ahead of the
potent cold front. By Saturday morning, much of the rain should be
pushing east into the Arklatex region and into the Central Plains ahead of
the low pressure system. This will allow the Southern Plains to dry out.
However, heavy snow could linger across central Colorado into Saturday
morning depending on the strength of the low pressure system.

Much colder temperatures are expected across the West behind the low
pressure system and a cold front; with 30s and 40s across the valleys and
dipping into the single digits in the cool spots for overnight lows. Make
sure to bundle up. Strong wind gusts along with lower moisture will
increase the risk for wildfires in the Southwest over the next few days.
Critical wildfire conditions persist across California where Red flag
warnings are in effect for portions of coastal and interior California.
The Storm Prediction Center has Critical Fire Conditions highlighted for
southern California with an extreme area in the vicinity of Santa Clarita
which will carry over for today. In contrast, record warm minimum
temperatures are forecast to continue from the Mid-Atlantic down into
theSoutheast and along the Gulf Coast through the next couple of nights.
High temperatures are not quite reaching record levels but will remain
well above normal for these areas for early November.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed Nov 06 2024
Valid 12Z Wed Nov 06 2024 – 12Z Fri Nov 08 2024

…Heavy rain threat emerging over the interior Southeast late today into
Thursday as tropical moisture associated with weak low over southeastern
Gulf of Mexico lifts northward...

…Increasing threat for heavy snow to impact the central to southern
Rockies and nearby High Plains through the next couple of days…

…Watching the Florida Keys for impacts associated with Hurricane Rafael
forecast to pass not far too to the west tonight…

…Record warmth expected for the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England
today…

As heavy rain threat across the Mississippi Valley gradually diminishes
today, tropical moisture associated with a weak low pressure circulation
centered over southeastern Gulf of Mexico is beginning to lift north
toward the Florida Panhandle under a broad channel of southerly flow
aloft. This weak low is a system somewhat separate from Hurricane Rafael
farther south in the Caribbean Sea. The tropical moisture associated with
the weak low is forecast to be drawn northward today, leading to heavy
rainfall tonight into Thursday morning across the interior section of the
Southeast. WPC currently places a moderate risk of heavy rain across
central Georgia into portions of South Carolina for this upcoming heavy
rain event. Meanwhile, moderate to locally heavy rain associated with a
cold front early this morning along the Mississippi and Ohio Valley early
this morning is forecast to become more scattered in nature as today
progresses.

Meanwhile, Hurricane Rafael continues to intensify over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea while heading northwest toward western Cuba. The National
Hurricane Center calls for Rafael to be a category-2 hurricane as it
passes not too far to the west of Key West tonight into Thursday morning.
Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the western portion of the Florida
Keys where increasing winds with passing squally downpours associated with
rainbands from Rafael can be expected by tonight.

As Rafael threatens the Florida Keys, a winter storm is brewing across the
southern Rockies. A vigorous upper-level trough is plunging south toward
the Four Corners early this morning, ushering a surge of polar air into
the region while developing an area of snow over the central Rockies into
the central High Plains. The snow is expected to expand in coverage and
pickup intensity as today progresses. The compact and vigorous nature of
this upper low will help sustain the snow in the general vicinity of
central to southern Rockies into the nearby High Plains (mostly within
Colorado and New Mexico) as the upper low rotates and lingers. If the
upper low deepens more than expected, the associated snow could linger in
the same area farther out in time. There is potential for a foot of snow
to fall across the Front Range of Colorado, while a few feet of wet snow
is possible farther south across the higher elevations near the
Colorado-New Mexico border and into northern New Mexico. Winter Storm
Watches and Warnings as well as Winter Weather Advisories have been issued
for much of the aforementioned areas. In addition to producing snow, this
vigorous upper low could have changeable influences on the future track of
Rafael in the Gulf of Mexico. Please refer to NHC for the latest forecast
track on Rafael.

As arctic air plunges into the region temperatures will fall to the 30s
and 40s across the valleys and drop to the single digits in the cool spots
for overnight lows. Make sure to bundle up. Strong wind gusts along with
lower moisture will increase the risk for wildfires over the next few
days. Red flag warnings are in effect for portions of coastal and interior
California. The Storm Prediction Center has Critical Fire Conditions
highlighted for southern California today with an extreme area in the
vicinity of Santa Clarita which will carry over into Thursday. In
contrast, high temperatures are forecast to challenge or break records
today across the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England as well as
scattered locations in the South ahead of the weakening cold front moving
across the Mississippi Valley.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Nov 05 2024
Valid 12Z Tue Nov 05 2024 – 12Z Thu Nov 07 2024

…Heavy rain and severe weather threats shifting east toward the
Arklatex, Mid-Mississippi Valley, and into the Midwest/Ohio Valley today…

…Mountain snow and wind will spread south from the northern Rockies
today, reaching into much of the central Rockies and Four Corners on
Wednesday into Thursday morning…

…Watching South Florida and especially the Florida Keys for impacts
associated with Tropical Storm Rafael forecast to become a hurricane as it
enters the southern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday…

…Above average temperatures approaching record levels will spread across
the Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes, and East Coast…

The weather system that has sustained the heavy rain and severe weather
across the south-central U.S. for the past couple of days is beginning to
advance farther east. This is in response to a low pressure system
consolidating along the trailing front as supported by the final pieces of
energy of the deep upper trough reaching into the southern Plains. The
threats of heavy rain and severe weather today are shifting farther east
toward the Mississippi Valley this morning ahead of the front. As the low
pressure center tracks farther north across the upper Midwest today and
then into the Great Lakes by tonight, the heavy rain threat across the
Mississippi Valley will gradually lessen. The front is forecast to become
nearly stationary across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys by Wednesday with
scattered showers and thunderstorms remaining in the vicinity into
Thursday morning.

Focus will then shift into the Gulf of Mexico as Tropical Storm Rafael is
forecast to track across western Cuba on Wednesday as a hurricane. The
Florida Keys will likely be closest to the path of Rafael with increasing
winds amid passing squally downpours associated with rainbands from Rafael
by later on Wednesday into Thursday morning. Please refer to the National
Hurricane Hurricane for the latest advisories on Rafael. Some moderate to
heavy rainfall well ahead of Rafael could move into the Southeast by
Wednesday night and continue into Thursday morning.

Weather out West is getting active again as another strong upper level
trough quickly digs across. A cold front and attendant low pressure system
have already traversed the Pacific Northwest. In addition to winter
weather across the mountains that has prompted winter weather advisories
and storm warnings, strong winds accompanying the low have also prompted
high wind warnings for the interior Pacific Northwest and portions of
Montana and Wyoming. The front will dip farther south into the southern
Rockies by Wednesday and then across the central and southern Plains by
Thursday morning. A round of new snow is expected to blanket much of the
Four Corners region behind the strong front. Temperatures will plunge as
an arctic air mass invades the region. Highs will be in the 30s and 40s
across the valleys and lows may approach the single digits in the cool
spots. Make sure to bundle up.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Nov 04 2024
Valid 12Z Mon Nov 04 2024 – 12Z Wed Nov 06 2024

…More heavy rain and severe weather focusing across eastern Oklahoma to
the Midwest today will weaken and gradually shift east toward the
Mid-Mississippi Valley on Tuesday…

…Next round of mountain snow and wind will quickly overspread into the
Pacific Northwest today, across the northern Rockies on Tuesday, and then
into the central Rockies by Tuesday night…

…Watching South Florida and especially the Florida Keys for impacts
associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen which is forecast to
reach hurricane strength by Wednesday morning…

…Above average temperatures approaching record levels will build across
the Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes, and East Coast…

The ongoing active weather system over the south-central U.S. will bring
another day of heavy rain and severe weather across the south-central
U.S., with the heaviest rainfall expected to impact eastern Oklahoma,
northwestern Arkansas, much of Missouri and into Illinois. In addition,
the Storm Prediction Center continues to highlight an Enhanced Risk (level
3/5) of severe thunderstorms centered around eastern Oklahoma and into
adjacent areas where damaging winds, large hail, as well as a few
tornadoes are mostly likely. More energy ejecting from the upper-level
trough currently spreading mountain snow across the Intermountain West
will consolidate a low pressure system over the south-central Plains
today. This system is forecast to push a cold front farther eastward by
tonight, ending the heavy rain threat across Oklahoma but then shifting
the heavy rain and severe weather threats into the Arklatex region,
Mid-Mississippi Valley and across Midwest on Tuesday. As the low pressure
center tracks quickly northeastward across the Great Lakes Tuesday night,
the trailing cold front will weaken with time, leading to a lessening
threat of heavy rain and severe weather farther east across the
Mid-Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Nevertheless, moderate to locally heavy
rain with embedded thunderstorms are expected to reach into the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

With another piece of energy associated the upper trough beginning to exit
the Southwest into the Plains today, mountain snow over central Colorado
will slowly taper off while mountain snow over New Mexico will linger into
this evening. A rather strong low pressure system from the Pacific Ocean
will quickly spread the next round of coastal rain into the Pacific
Northwest today followed by a good dose of mountain snow farther inland
along with windy conditions. The mountain snow will then reach into the
northern Rockies Monday night into Tuesday morning as the low pressure
system redevelops over the northern High Plains. The greatest chances
(>80%) for over 8 inches of snowfall in a 24-hour period is forecast over
the northern Cascades on Monday and northern Rockies on Tuesday. Be sure
to prepare for winter driving conditions if traveling throughout these
elevated mountain ranges and stay tuned to the latest local weather
forecast. By Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, the snow is forecast
to blanket the central Rockies into the central High Plains behind a polar
front.

Warmer and mostly dry conditions will be felt east of the Mississippi
River through early next week, besides rain chances throughout parts of
the Midwest and Great Lakes. A large high pressure system centered over
the Great Lakes is forecast to slide eastward and off the New England
coastline, ushering in warm southerly flow on the western periphery. This
will support widespread above average high temperatures into the upper 60s
and 70s from the central/southern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic early this
week, with 80s along the Gulf Coast States. When compared to early
November climatology, the Midwest and upper Ohio Valley is expected to
experience temperatures well above average. The anomalous warmth will
eventually spread to the East Coast by Election Day as showers and
thunderstorms ahead of the cold front continue throughout the Midwest and
Mississippi Valley.

In the mean time, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has begun issuing
advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen (PTC 18) in the
southwestern Caribbean. This system has the potential to bring increasing
winds with the arrival of outer rainbands especially for the Florida Keys
by Wednesday morning as the cyclone is forecast to reach hurricane
strength by then. Please refer to the NHC for the latest advisory on PTC
18.