Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted September 9, 2023: Eyes Still on Hurricane Lee

September 9, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Sep 09 2023
Valid 12Z Sat Sep 09 2023 – 12Z Mon Sep 11 2023

…Dangerous heat will build across the Southwest, while continuing across
parts of Texas…

…Widespread showers and storms and cooler temperatures will spread
across the northern to the central Plains and the upper to mid Mississippi
Valley…

…Unsettled weather will continue across the East, with locally heavy
rainfall and flooding possible…

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted September 8, 2023: Eyes Still on Hurricane Lee

September 8, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Sep 08 2023
Valid 12Z Fri Sep 08 2023 – 12Z Sun Sep 10 2023

…Severe storms possible today across portions of the Northeast, Mid
Atlantic, and from the Red River to the upper Texas and Louisiana coasts
…

…Dangerous heat continues across parts of the Northeast, south-central
U.S., and the Southwest…

…Increasing chance for heavy rain across portions of the Southeast on
Saturday…

Crop Report September 7, 2023 – Crops Look Good – The Price Received to Cost Paid Ratio Not So Much

September 7, 2023Posted inagriculture, weatherNo Comments

This article is based primarily on the August 29, 2023, USDA Crop Bulletin which covers the week ending September 3, 2023. The USDA report usually becomes available on Tuesdays but was issued this week due to the National Holiday. The full USDA Crop Bulletin can be accessed HERE.

It again seems like an average crop. Hurricane Idalia seems to have had little if any impact but the reporting may need another week to be sure of that.

The article includes a short international review of agricultural conditions. I also included crop-related weather information. I have included the Agricultural Prices Report and it suggests problems for the agriculture sector.

First, we take a look at the impact of Hurricane Idalia

It did not seem to impact the cotton growing area to the extent I had expected it to do but it certainly impacted the citrus growing area. We do not have a report on the impacts of the storm on citrus this week.  This graphic shows the weather impacts but we do not know how it impacted the crop.

We begin with the National Agriculture Summary.  The Tables below the summary have additional data. The boxes with my comments may be incomplete so for crops of interest check the data out yourself to be sure.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted September 7, 2023: Eyes on Hurricane Lee

September 7, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Sep 07 2023
Valid 12Z Thu Sep 07 2023 – 12Z Sat Sep 09 2023

… On Thursday, there is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts
of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic/Central Appalachians…

…There are Heat Advisories and Excessive Heat Warnings over parts of the
Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley and Heat Advisories over the
Northeast on Thursday…

…Air Quality Alerts over parts of the Central Plains, Upper Mississippi
Valley, and Maine on Thursday…

Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted September 6, 2023

September 6, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed Sep 06 2023
Valid 12Z Wed Sep 06 2023 – 12Z Fri Sep 08 2023

…There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Lower
Mississippi Valley/Tennessee Valley on Wednesday…

…There are Heat Advisories over parts of the Northeast and Southern
Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley on Wednesday…

…Air Quality Alerts over parts of the Northern High Plains, Central
Plains, and Upper Mississippi Valley on Wednesday…

Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted September 5, 2023

September 5, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Sep 05 2023

Valid 12Z Tue Sep 05 2023 – 12Z Thu Sep 07 2023

…There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Upper
Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes on Tuesday…

…There are Heat Advisories over parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic
on Tuesday...

…Air Quality Alerts over parts of the Northern High Plains on Tuesday…

Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted September 4, 2023

September 4, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Sep 04 2023

Valid 12Z Mon Sep 04 2023 – 12Z Wed Sep 06 2023

…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over the parts of the
Northern Rockies/Northern High Plains on Monday…

…There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Northern/Central High Plains…

…There are Heat Advisories over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley
and Northeast on Monday…

Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted September 3, 2023

September 3, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Sep 03 2023
Valid 12Z Sun Sep 03 2023 – 12Z Tue Sep 05 2023

…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over the parts of the
Great Basin/Northern Intermountain Region on Sunday and Northern Rockies
on Monday…

…There are Heat Advisories over parts of the Northern/Central Plains and
Upper Mississippi Valley on Sunday…

…Upper-level ridging will build over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley…

Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted September 2, 2023

September 2, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Sep 02 2023

Valid 12Z Sat Sep 02 2023 – 12Z Mon Sep 04 2023

…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over the parts of the
Southwest/Great Basin on Saturday and Great Basin/Northern Intermountain
Region on Sunday…

…There is an Elevated Risk of fire weather over parts of the Central
Plains on Saturday, extending into Upper Mississippi Valley on Sunday…

NOAA Updates It’s September, 2023 Outlook on August 31, 2023 – There Have Been Some Dramatic Changes from the Mid-Month Outlook

September 1, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

At the end of every month, NOAA updates its Outlook for the following month which in this case is September of 2023. We are reporting on that tonight.

There have been some dramatic changes in the Outlook for September and these are addressed in the NOAA Discussion so it is well worth reading.  We provided the prior Mid-Month Outlook for September for comparison. It is easy to see the changes by comparing the Mid-Month and Updated Maps.

The article includes the Drought Outlook for September. NOAA also adjusted the previously issued Seasonal Drought Outlook to reflect the changes in the September Drought Outlook. We have included a map showing the water-year-to-date precipitation. We also provide the Week 2/3 Tropical Outlook for the World.

The best way to understand the updated outlook for September is to view the maps and read the NOAA discussion. I have highlighted the key statements in the NOAA Discussion.

I am going to start with graphics that show the updated Outlook for September and the Mid-Month Outlook for September. This is followed by a graphic that shows both the Updated Outlook for September and also the three-month outlook SON 2023. So you get the full picture in three graphics.

Here is the updated Outlook for September 2023

For Comparison Purposes, Here is the Mid-Month Outlook for September.

There have been some dramatic changes. Remember, it is the top set of maps that are the current outlook for September.

Combination of the Updated Outlook for September and the Three-Month Outlook

The top row is the Updated Outlook for the new month. There is a temperature map and a precipitation map. The second row is a three-month outlook that includes the new month. I think the outlook maps are self-explanatory. What is important to remember is that they show deviations from the current definition of normal which is the period 1991 through 2020.  So this is not a forecast of the absolute value of temperature or precipitation but the change from what is defined as normal or to use the technical term climatology.