Sig Silber Archives - Page 57 of 110

NOAA Updates its ENSO Alert on September 14, 2023 – The El Nino Advisory Continues. In a Week, NOAA Will Update us on how this Impacts U.S. Weather

By Sig Silber September 15, 2023Climate, weatherNo Comments

On the second Thursday of every month, NOAA (really their Climate Prediction Center CPC) issues its analysis of the status of ENSO. This includes determining the Alert System Status. NOAA again describes their conclusion as “ENSO Alert System Status: El Nino Advisory”

There is not much doubt that we have an El Nino. How long it lasts and its strength remains to be seen. NOAA may be more conservative compared to some other Weather Advisory Organizations.

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER ENSO DISCUSSION

The second paragraph is what is important:

“The most recent IRI plume indicates El Niño will persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2023-24. Despite nearly the same ensemble mean amplitude as last month, the shorter forecast horizon means that the odds of at least a “strong” El Niño (≥1.5C for the November-January seasonal average in Niño-3.4) have increased to 71%. However, a strong El Niño does not necessarily equate to strong impacts locally, with the odds of related climate anomalies often lower than the chances of El Niño itself (e.g., CPC’s seasonal outlooks). In summary, El Niño is anticipated to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter (with greater than 95% chance through January – March 2024; ).”

We now provide additional detail but I am keeping this article shorter than usual because nothing much has changed since last month.

CPC Probability Distribution

Here are the new forecast probabilities. This information in the past has been released twice a month and the first release is based on a survey of Meteorologists, the second is based on model results. The probabilities are for three-month periods e.g. ASO stands for August/September/October. The approach may have changed as IRI (The International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University Climate School) may no longer be involved. Their website has not been updated this month.

Here is the current release of the probabilities:

You can clearly see the forecast does not extend beyond AMJ 2024 and one does see a tail-off in the probabilities for El Nino conditions in the Eastern Pacific after the winter season. Some Meteorological Agencies see El Nino lasting longer but JAMSTEC showed it ending sooner in the article I posted last night which you can access HERE.

Here is the forecast from late last month.

This showed a slower demise of the El Nino.

Select Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted September 15, 2023 – Hurricane Lee is Still a Factor

By Sig Silber September 15, 2023weatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Sep 15 2023
Valid 12Z Fri Sep 15 2023 – 12Z Sun Sep 17 2023

…Lee continues tracking north, tropical storm and hurricane conditions
possible for coastal New England Friday and Saturday…

…Heavy rain and strong storms likely over the Southern Plains Friday…

…Dry conditions in the West with some much above average highs expected
for the Pacific Northwest/Northern Rockies this weekend...

Our Report on the JAMSTEC Three-Season Weather Forecast – September 14, 2023

By Sig Silber September 14, 2023weatherNo Comments

The Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, or JAMSTEC, is a Japanese national research institute for marine-earth science and technology

From the JAMSTEC Discussion:

As predicted, the recent observation confirms the occurrence of the El Niño. The SINTEX-F ensemble mean predicts that the El Niño will reach its peak in the late boreal autumn and persist at least until the next boreal spring. However, there is a large uncertainty in the predicted amplitude.

Although it is a World forecast, it includes a forecast for North America since North America is part of the World. The JAMSTEC discussion does not address it but the maps show the U.S. being an area that has a lot of area that is not warmer than Climatology which I interpret as a fairly cold winter but surprisingly dry in the Southwest.

First, we take a look at the forecasted sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA). JAMSTEC starts by forecasting the SSTA and Nino 3.4 Index on the first day of the month and from there it usually takes their models about two weeks to produce their seasonal forecast. I received it from JAMSTEC on September 12, 2023 which is a week earlier than when we will receive the Seasonal Outlook from NOAA which will be on September 21. The JAMSTEC model runs are based on conditions as of September 1, 2023. The NOAA Seasonal Outlook will be based on conditions closer to the time when it is issued.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted September 14, 2023 – Hurricane Lee is Still a Factor

By Sig Silber September 14, 2023weatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Sep 14 2023
Valid 12Z Thu Sep 14 2023 – 12Z Sat Sep 16 2023

….As Lee continues to track north, tropical storm conditions are
possible across a large portion of coastal New England beginning Friday
night…

…Life-threatening storm surge flooding possible in portions of
southeastern Massachusetts beginning late Friday…

…Unsettled weather, with heavy rain and strong storms possible, to
continue into the weekend over the southern Plains…

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted September 13, 2023

By Sig Silber September 13, 2023weatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed Sep 13 2023
Valid 12Z Wed Sep 13 2023 – 12Z Fri Sep 15 2023

….Showers and thunderstorms are likely, with heavy rainfall and flooding
possible, across portions of the southern Plains over the next few days…

…More heavy is rain likely, with possible flooding, for portions of the
Northeast today…

…Dangerous surf and rip current conditions to spread north along the
East Coast over the next couple of days…

Looking Back at August 2023 in the U.S. September 12, 2023

By Sig Silber September 12, 2023weather2 Comments

Usually for this article where I provide a review of the prior month, I reproduce John Bateman’s email in its entirety. But John Bateman has not yet sent out his email because NCEI has not yet published their review of August 2023. I suspect the delay is due to the Labor Day weekend but there may have been other factors. But I also like to add a few additional graphics, namely the state ranking maps after John Bateman’s email. These maps show how temperature and precipitation for each state rank relative to the 129 (article originally mistakenly said 139) years of what is considered to be the most reliable data we have.

That information became available today so I am publishing it tonight. When NCEI issues their report and if John Bateman sends me his email, I will publish it or the NCEI report which is the basis for John Bateman’s email separately.

Now we will discuss the State Rankings for the single month of August 2023. Let me remind you that this shows where the Temperature and Precipitation in August rank within the 129-year history of that state. It is a good way to put August in perspective.

Three states set records for average temperature. That is a lot. Many others were much above average.

But only two states set a record for the maximum temperatures.

The same two states set a record for the highest minimum temperatures usually meaning there was a lot of humidity. There were a lot of states that were much above average but not always the same states that were much above average in the first measure and graphic which is average temperature. It can get a bit confusing. High minimum temperatures mean a high use of air conditioning and for people without air conditioning, uncomfortable nights.

One state set a record for being the driest in its history. However, there were many states that had much above-average precipitation.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted September 12, 2023

By Sig Silber September 12, 2023weatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Sep 12 2023
Valid 12Z Tue Sep 12 2023 – 12Z Thu Sep 14 2023

…Cool, wet weather with heavy rainfall and flooding possible across the
Southwest and southern Plains…

…More heavy rain and possible flooding expected across the Northeast….

…Dangerous surf and rip current conditions developing along the East
Coast…

Select Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted September 10, 2023: Questions about Hurricane Lee Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted September 11, 2023: Still Watching Hurricane Lee

By Sig Silber September 11, 2023weatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Sep 11 2023
Valid 12Z Mon Sep 11 2023 – 12Z Wed Sep 13 2023

…Decreasing temperatures with an increasing chance for showers and
thunderstorms expected across the Southwest early this week…

…Strong to severe thunderstorms and heavy rain expected across portions
of the southern Plains today…

…Unsettled weather with heavy rain and flooding possible across portions
of the Northeast today…

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted September 10, 2023: Questions about Hurricane Lee

By Sig Silber September 10, 2023weatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Sep 10 2023
Valid 12Z Sun Sep 10 2023 – 12Z Tue Sep 12 2023

…Dangerous heat to persist for one more day across portions of the
Southwest, before temperatures begin to steadily fall early this week…

…Showers and thunderstorms and cooler temperatures to spread across the
northern to central Plains and the Midwest…

…Locally heavy rain, with flash flooding possible today from the
southern and central Appalachians to New England…

Reporting on the State of the Climate in 2022 – September 9, 2023

By Sig Silber September 9, 2023ClimateNo Comments

Every year at about the same time, there is a report on the State of the Climate of the world as of the prior year. Many organizations work together to produce and distribute this report. I am presenting the NCEI-prepared highlights of the full report. Remember this report is about 2022 and the years leading up to 2022. It takes a little time for NOAA and the American Meteorological Society to prepare their report and in this article, I provide the Highlights of that report as prepared by NCEI. NCEI stands for the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information.

This article is worth reading. It just presents the highlights. My comments are inside boxes within the article.

This report can be accessed HERE but I have included all of the material that is in this report in this article.

The American Meteorological Society (AMS) version of the report has a lot more detail and can be accessed HERE.

The growth in all three greenhouse gases since 1980 is bad but the increase in methane is particularly concerning.

Nitrous oxide is a very very powerful GHG so its increase in growth rather is very concerning.