Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted October 2, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Oct 02 2023
Valid 12Z Mon Oct 02 2023 – 12Z Wed Oct 04 2023

…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern
High Plains on Monday…

…There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Southern High Plains on Monday and over parts of the Central/Southern
Plains on Tuesday…

…Moderate to heavy snow over parts of the higher elevations of Northern
Rockies…

 

Crop Report September 30, 2023 – Still Looking Good – Not Sure What a Government Shut Down will Entail

This article is based primarily on the September 26, 2023, USDA Crop Bulletin which covers the week ending September 24, 2023.  The full USDA Crop Bulletin can be accessed HERE

It again seems like an average crop which is good considering the late and poor start.  Because we published a few days late we were able to include the Crop Prices report that has indices for prices received and prices paid by farmers for their purchases but the ratio of prices received to prices paid is essentially the same in August as it was in July. But like all indices one sometimes has to look into the details to know how to interpret the indices and in this case the ratio of the price and cost indices. We show the summary and provide a link to the full report. Obviously, the full report is quite long and readers interested in this subject can follow the link provided and draw their own conclusions.

The article includes a short international review of agricultural conditions which are generally favorable. I also included U.S. crop-related weather forecasts.

We begin by taking a look at the impact of Tropical Storm Ophelia. It is probably too soon to assess the crop impacts which will show up in the USDA Crop Bulletin that will be issued on October 3 if the U.S. Government is not shut down.

Now on to the National Agriculture Summary.  The Tables below the summary have additional data. The boxes with my comments may be incomplete so for crops of interest check the data out yourself to be sure.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted September 30, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Sep 30 2023
Valid 12Z Sat Sep 30 2023 – 12Z Mon Oct 02 2023

…Moderate snow over parts of the Sierra Nevada Mountains above 9000ft on
Saturday…

…Temperatures will be 15 to 20 degrees above normal over parts of the
Middle Mississippi Valley and Central Plains…

…Temperatures will be 10 to 20 degrees below average over parts of
California, the Great Basin, and the Pacific Northwest on Saturday…

 

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted September 29, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Sep 29 2023
Valid 12Z Fri Sep 29 2023 – 12Z Sun Oct 01 2023

…There is a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
northern Mid-Atlantic/Southern New England…

…Moderate snow over parts of the Sierra Nevada Mountains above 9000ft on
Saturday…

…Temperatures will be 10 to 20 degrees below average over parts of
California, the Great Basin, and the Pacific Northwest on Saturday…

 

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted September 28, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Sep 28 2023
Valid 12Z Thu Sep 28 2023 – 12Z Sat Sep 30 2023

…Heavy rain and flash flooding possible across parts of the Northeast on
Friday…

…Wet weather pattern continues throughout Florida and the Northwest…

…Well above average temperatures expected across the central Plains and
parts of the Midwest…

 

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted September 27, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
256 PM EDT Wed Sep 27 2023
Valid 00Z Thu Sep 28 2023 – 00Z Sat Sep 30 2023

A cool and wet weather pattern to persist across the Pacific
Northwest…

…No changes to the wet pattern across Florida…

…Showery pattern to continue through the Ohio Valley and Lower Lakes and
develop along the Mid-Atlantic coast into Southern New England…

…Warm dry conditions expected across much of the central portion of the
nation…

 

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted September 26, 2023

Updated at 5:40 p.m. EDT to be  up to date for September 27. The regular September 27 Article will be published at 8 p.m. EDT today but it will be the same as this update. Remember the images update automatically. I just add the NWS statement which is generally valid for 48 to 72 hours.

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
256 PM EDT Wed Sep 27 2023
Valid 00Z Thu Sep 28 2023 – 00Z Sat Sep 30 2023

A cool and wet weather pattern to persist across the Pacific
Northwest…

…No changes to the wet pattern across Florida…

…Showery pattern to continue through the Ohio Valley and Lower Lakes and
develop along the Mid-Atlantic coast into Southern New England…

…Warm dry conditions expected across much of the central portion of the
nation…

 

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted September 24, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
402 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2023
Valid 00Z Mon Sep 25 2023 – 00Z Wed Sep 27 2023

…There are two areas of Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of
the northern Mid-Atlantic/Southern New England and second over the
Southern Plain and Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley…

…There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Southern Plains…

…There are Heat Advisories over parts of the Southern Plains…

…Air Quality Alerts over parts of Central California…

 

What about El Nino? September 23, 2023

Since it is almost certain we will have El Nino this winter and a strong one at that, it is useful to think about what that means for precipitation in the lower 48 states.

The above shows El Nino winters from 1950 to today organized from upper left to lower right by the strength of the ENSO ONI Index. It may be missing one or even two recent El Ninos. I know how to create this sort of graphic but I prefer to use one that has been created by others. The point is that there is a lot of variation among El Nino winters. In the past, I have done an analysis for the state where I live which is New Mexico to see if the phases of the AMO and PDO seem to have an impact and they do. I am not aware of any published paper on that subject. I have seen papers that look at the impact of the Hawaiin High on how wet certain parts of California get during an El Nino. The fact is we do not really know how El Nino works partly because we have so few El Nino winters to analyze.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted September 23, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
408 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023
Valid 00Z Sun Sep 24 2023 – 00Z Tue Sep 26 2023

…There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Central/Southern Plains and Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley…

…There are two areas of Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts
of the Mid-Atlantic and second over the Southern Plain and Middle/Lower
Mississippi Valley…


…Tropical Storm OPHELIA is forecast to slowly move northward over the
Mid-Atlantic, then northeastward over the Western Atlantic before
dissipating…

…Air Quality Alerts over parts of Central California…