Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted October 9, 2023

October 9, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Oct 09 2023
Valid 12Z Mon Oct 09 2023 – 12Z Wed Oct 11 2023

…Colder and unsettled weather to move east from the Pacific Northwest
and northern California through mid-week while above average temperatures
shift from the Interior West into the Great Plains…

…Below average temperatures continue for the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley
while lake effect showers persist through Tuesday…

…Surge of tropical moisture to bring an increased threat for heavy rain
and flash flooding for southern Texas on Tuesday…

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted October 8, 2023 – Tropical Storm Philippee remnants will hit Maine Today

October 8, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Oct 08 2023
Valid 12Z Sun Oct 08 2023 – 12Z Tue Oct 10 2023

…Heavy rain from the remnants of Philippe will come to an end across
Maine this morning but lingering areas of flooding and gusty winds will
remain into the day…

…Below average temperatures for much of the Great Lakes and eastern U.S.
along with lake effect rain showers and thunderstorms downwind of the
Great Lakes…

…Colder and wetter weather to arrive on the West Coast Monday, but above
average warmth to remain for the Interior West and Rockies..

cone graphic

Information on Droughts October 7, 2023

October 7, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Drought has been a problem this year in the corn and soybean growing area but it has been an ongoing problem for some time. Global Warming makes it worse especially in areas where it leads to reduced precipitation. But in all areas, it results in higher rates of evaporation and possible transpiration.

We are not going into drought in detail in this article but I am showing you some of what comes across my desk from NOAA that you might find interesting.

You need to click HERE to watch the droughts unfold. Then you can scroll down to see how drought unfolded since 1921. It uses different metrics than the current drought monitor which allows us to go back farther in time. It is very dramatic. It was not possible for me to directly show the images in this article.

Now we will take a look a the drought history from 2000 to 2020

I have not included the criteria for the various categories of drought but you can see that since the Drought Monitor has been in existence drought has been fairly prevalent with short periods of minimal drought.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted October 7, 2023 – Tropical Storm Philippee may hit Maine

October 7, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Oct 07 2023
Valid 12Z Sat Oct 07 2023 – 12Z Mon Oct 09 2023

…Remnants of Philippe to bring heavy rainfall with the risk of flash
flooding as well as gusty winds to the Northeast through early Sunday
morning…

…Much cooler temperatures to spread eastward from the central U.S. into
much of the eastern U.S. this weekend…

…Much above average temperatures and dry conditions for the West…

cone graphic

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted October 6, 2023 – Tropical Storm Philippee may hit Maine

October 6, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Oct 06 2023
Valid 12Z Fri Oct 06 2023 – 12Z Sun Oct 08 2023

…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Northeast on Saturday…

…There is a Freeze Warnings/Watches over parts of the Northern/Central
Plains overnight Friday…

…Temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees below average over parts of the
Northern/Central Plains and the Upper Mississippi Valley…

cone graphic

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted October 5, 2023

October 5, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Oct 05 2023
Valid 12Z Thu Oct 05 2023 – 12Z Sat Oct 07 2023

…There is a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Western/Central Gulf Coast on Thursday and the Northeast on Friday…

…There is a Freeze Watch over parts of the Northern Plains overnight
Thursday…

…Temperatures will be 15 to 25 degrees above average over parts of the
Northeast…

cone graphic

Crop Report October 4, 2023 – Frost Concerns Begin

October 4, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article is based primarily on the October 3, 2023, USDA Crop Bulletin which covers the week ending October 1, 2023.  The full USDA Crop Bulletin can be accessed HERE

It again seems like an average crop which is good considering the late and poor start.  But we are concerned about the Frost/Freeze warning. Because we published a few days late last week there have only been a small number of days between that article and this one.

This article includes a short international review of agricultural conditions which are generally favorable. I also included U.S. crop-related weather forecasts. And there is a small grains production forecast.

We first take a look at the frost/Freeze warning.

We then take a look at the impact of flooding in Greece. I realize that Greece is not in the U.S. but the USDA thought it important enough to include this in their crop bulletin so I am showing it as it may impact world cotton production.

Now on to the National Agriculture Summary.  The Tables below the summary have additional data. The boxes with my comments may be incomplete so for crops of interest check the data out yourself to be sure.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted October 4, 2023

October 4, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed Oct 04 2023
Valid 12Z Wed Oct 04 2023 – 12Z Fri Oct 06 2023

…There is a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley on Wednesday…

…There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Southern Plains on Wednesday…

…Temperatures will be 15 to 25 degrees above average from the Great
Lakes/Ohio Valley to the Northeast…

cone graphic

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted October 3, 2023

October 3, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Oct 03 2023
Valid 12Z Tue Oct 03 2023 – 12Z Thu Oct 05 2023

…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Western
Gulf Coast on Tuesday and over the Southern Plains and Middle/Lower
Mississippi Valley on Wednesday…

…There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Central/Southern Plains on Tuesday and a Slight Risk over parts of the
Southern High Plains on Wednesday…

…Snow over parts of the highest elevations of Wyoming…

 

NOAA Updates its October 2023 Weather Outlook on September 30, 2023 – There have been some significant changes from the Mid-Month Outlook.

October 2, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

At the end of every month, NOAA updates its Outlook for the following month which in this case is October of 2023. We are reporting on that tonight.

There have been some significant changes in the Outlook for October and these are addressed in the NOAA Discussion so it is well worth reading.  We provided the prior Mid-Month Outlook for October for comparison. It is easy to see the changes by comparing the Mid-Month and Updated Maps.

The article includes the Drought Outlook for October. NOAA also adjusted the previously issued Seasonal Drought Outlook to reflect the changes in the October Drought Outlook. We have included a map showing the water-year-to-date precipitation. We also provide the Week 2/3 Tropical Outlook for the World.

The best way to understand the updated outlook for October is to view the maps and read the NOAA discussion. I have highlighted the key statements in the NOAA Discussion.

I am going to start with graphics that show the updated Outlook for October and the Mid-Month Outlook for October. This is followed by a graphic that shows both the Updated Outlook for October and also the three-month outlook OND 2023. So you get the full picture in three graphics.

Here is the updated Outlook for October 2023

For Comparison Purposes, Here is the Mid-Month Outlook for October.

There have been some significant changes. Remember, it is the top set of maps that are the current outlook for October.

Combination of the Updated Outlook for October and the Three-Month Outlook

 

The top row is the Updated Outlook for the new month. There is a temperature map and a precipitation map. The second row is a three-month outlook that includes the new month. I think the outlook maps are self-explanatory. What is important to remember is that they show deviations from the current definition of normal which is the period 1991 through 2020.  So this is not a forecast of the absolute value of temperature or precipitation but the change from what is defined as normal or to use the technical term climatology.