Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted November 21, 2023

November 21, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Nov 21 2023
Valid 12Z Tue Nov 21 2023 – 12Z Thu Nov 23 2023

…Active weather expected to impact pre-Thanksgiving travels for much of
the U.S. east of the Mississippi River but should exit the East Coast just
in time for Thanksgiving…

…Severe weather threat will progress from west to east across the
central Gulf Gulf states into the Southeast…

…Heavy rain expected to move through the interior Mid-Atlantic tonight
with some snow and freezing rain over interior New England into
Wednesday…

…Snow is forecast to develop over the northern Rockies to northern High
Plains to begin Thanksgiving holiday…

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted November 20, 2023

November 20, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Nov 20 2023
Valid 12Z Mon Nov 20 2023 – 12Z Wed Nov 22 2023

…Enhanced Risk of severe weather across the Deep South later
today/tonight ahead of a low pressure system…

…Locally heavy rain and possibly strong thunderstorms across the
Mid-Mississippi Valley today and then across the interior Mid-Atlantic
Tuesday into early Wednesday…

…High-elevation snows and lower elevation rain across the central and
southern Rockies/High Plains expected to taper off tonight…

…Santa Ana winds develop over southern California during the next couple
of days…

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted November 19, 2023

November 19, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Nov 19 2023
Valid 12Z Sun Nov 19 2023 – 12Z Tue Nov 21 2023

…Unsettled weather expands across the western U.S. with strong winds,
high-elevation snows, and coastal/lower-elevation rains…

…Low pressure system developing over the central High Plains will bring
an expanding area of showers and thunderstorms across the central U.S.
towards the eastern U.S….

…Above average temperatures for the South and the Northern Plains while
colder air surges across the western U.S….

Crop Report of Progress and Production Estimates November 18, 2023

November 18, 2023Posted inagricultureNo Comments

Record High Corn Forecast

This article is based primarily on two sets of information:

A. The Crop Bulletin that was issued on November 14, 2023, and

B. Crop Production Executive Summary issued on November 9, 2023.  We only used a limited number of graphics from this long presentation…different graphics than we used last month. We provide a link to the full report. For the three main crops the NASS forecasts are higher than many of the industry forecasts so we will see if NASS has it right or if NASS is being overly optimistic.

We are coming to the end of this growing season so we are including both the progress of crops and the estimates of the final production hence the use of the two reports.

This article includes a short international review of agricultural conditions which are generally favorable. I also included U.S. crop-related weather forecasts.

 

We first look at the National Agriculture Summary.  The Tables below the summary have additional data.

Below is pretty much the same information in table format. However, there is a lot of additional information in these tables.

 

 

Some additional detail is provided HERE

It is mostly some additional weeks of data and it is all in larger print.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted November 18, 2023

November 18, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Nov 18 2023
Valid 12Z Sat Nov 18 2023 – 12Z Mon Nov 20 2023

…Unsettled weather expands across the western U.S. with strong winds,
high-elevation snows and coastal rains…

…Another system forming over the central High Plains will bring an
expanding area of showers and thunderstorms across the central U.S….

…Great Plains warms up as the West cools down…

NOAA Updates Its Seasonal Outlook on November 16, 2023 – El Nino Weather through Late Spring

November 17, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

On the third Thursday of the month right on schedule NOAA issued their updated Seasonal Outlook which I describe as their Four-Season Outlook because it extends a bit more than one year into the future. The information released also included the Mid-Month Outlook for the following month plus the weather and drought outlook for the next three months.  I present the information issued by NOAA and try to add context to it. It is quite a challenge for NOAA to address the subsequent month, the subsequent three-month period as well as the twelve successive three-month periods for a year or a bit more.

First, Let’s Take a Look at the (mid-month) Outlook for December. It will be updated on the last day of November.

Then I present a graphic that shows both the preliminary Outlook for December and the three-month outlook for DJF 2023-2024. So you get the full picture in one graphic. For some, that may be all they are interested in. Others will be interested in the longer-term predictions and also the rationale supporting the predictions which is mostly provided by the NOAA discussion.

The top row is what is now called the Mid-Month Outlook for next month which will be updated at the end of this month. There is a temperature map and a precipitation map. The second row is a three-month outlook that includes next month.  I think the outlook maps are self-explanatory. What is important to remember is that they show deviations from the current definition of normal which is the period 1991 through 2020.  So this is not a forecast of the absolute value of temperature or precipitation but the change from what is defined as normal or to use the technical term “climatology”.

Notice that the outlook for next month and the three-month outlooks are somewhat different with respect to temperature and also to some extent precipitation.  This tells us that January and February will be different than December to some extent.

The full NOAA Seasonal Outlook extends through December/January/February of 2025. All of these maps are in the body of the article. Large maps are there for December and the three-month period Dec/Jan/Feb.  Small maps are provided beyond that through February of 2025 with a link to get larger versions of these maps.

NOAA provides an excellent discussion to support the maps.[Author’s Note: many other meteorological agencies see this El Nino being stronger than NOAA does so there is more than usual uncertainty relating to the more distant months.]

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted November 17, 2023

November 17, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Nov 17 2023
Valid 12Z Fri Nov 17 2023 – 12Z Sun Nov 19 2023

…Heavy rain over eastern to northern Florida Peninsula expected to taper
off later today as main low pressure system moves out to sea…

…Unsettled weather expanding into the western U.S. through the weekend…

…A cold front will usher gusty winds and much colder temperatures from
the northern Plains today and spreading into the eastern U.S. on Sunday…

cone graphic

Looking back at October for the World November 16, 2023 – Earth had its Warmest October Ever Since Reliable Data has been Available.

November 16, 2023Posted inClimate, weatherNo Comments

Most of the information in this report comes from the monthly email I receive from John Bateman. He does public outreach for NOAA and in particular NCEI. I could find the same information and more on the NCEI website but John produces a good summary so I use it or most of it. I also sometimes add additional information from NCEI or other NOAA websites. The full NCEI report for October can be accessed HERE.

I added the below to what John Bateman provided.

 

This shows the temperature anomaly for the single month of October dating back to 1850 plus the same graphic for the year to date including October. The increase this October is mind-boggling. Many believe that there were factors other than the steady increase in greenhouse gases and the onset of El Nino that caused this big increase which we also saw in recent months but the increase in October is shocking. The oceans are warming also but we will address that at another time but it is significant. In the above, it is the surface temperature land and ocean which is shown. The warming of the layers of the ocean below the surface is of considerable concern.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted November 16, 2023

November 16, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Nov 16 2023
Valid 12Z Thu Nov 16 2023 – 12Z Sat Nov 18 2023

…Heavy rainfall and threat for flash flooding across the eastern Florida
Peninsula today…

…Wet/unsettled weather for California through the rest of the week…

…Another mild day for the Midwest/Great Lakes today with high
temperatures 15 to 25 degrees above average…

Fifth National Climate Assessment November 15, 2023. Part I The Announcement.

November 15, 2023Posted inClimateNo Comments
 Erratum:

Mea culpa. I know that this is a 4 – 5 year event but I was not thinking clearly when I created the title.  As of 11:40 p.m. EST November 22, 2023, the title is now corrected. One wonders why the U.S. Climate Assessment occurs every 4 – 5 years when the IPCC report is issued every 7 years. I do not know the answer to that question.  Nothing else in this article has been changed.

I was not expecting this to arrive today.  But this is not a new endeavor. I think it was mainly a NASA project in the past but I may be wrong about that. Now it is:

And they are well funded.

Global Warming is expensive that is for sure.

I will report on this Climate Assessment even though I consider it to be more political than scientific. But I am not saying that the science in the report is not accurate.

HERE is the link to the full report.