Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted January 18, 2024

January 18, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the highlights from the NWS.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Jan 18 2024
Valid 12Z Thu Jan 18 2024 – 12Z Sat Jan 20 2024

…Heavy mountain snows for the Northwest/Rockies; additional ice over the
Columbia Basin…

…Bands of heavy lake-effect snow continue for the Great Lakes with
hazardous snow across the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic by Friday…

…Another Arctic blast expected late this week…
 

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report issued today.

Our Report on the JAMSTEC Three-Season Forecast – Posted on January 17, 2024

January 17, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

The Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, or JAMSTEC, is a Japanese national research institute for marine-earth science and technology

From the JAMSTEC Discussion:

“The recent observation suggests that the El Niño reached its peak. The SINTEX-F ensemble mean predicts that the El Niño will decay and an El Niño Modoki will develop and persist at least until the next boreal spring. The model also predicts that a La Niña Modoki will occur in boreal autumn. However, there is a large uncertainty in the predicted amplitude.”

Although it is a World forecast, it includes a forecast for North America since North America is part of the World.

First, we take a look at the forecasted sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA). JAMSTEC starts by forecasting the SSTA and Nino 3.4 Index on the first day of the month and from there it usually takes their models about two weeks to produce their seasonal forecast. I received it from JAMSTEC on January 10, 2024 which is a week before when NOAA will issue their Seasonal Update this month but I had so many articles to publish that I did not publish this JAMSTEC forecast immediately.  The JAMSTEC model runs are based on conditions as of January 1, 2024. The NOAA Seasonal Outlook will be based on conditions closer to the time when it is issued.

We have a full three-season forecast from JAMSTEC this month. We also have single-month forecasts for February, March and April 2024.

Let’s take a look.

 

This shows their forecast of sea surface temperature anomalies at three points in time. Red is warm and is associated with El Nino if it occurs in the Nino 3.4 measurement areas.  You can see the El Nino tongue of warm water extending from Peru to the west in the MAM image but look at that blob of warm water to the west i.e. by this point in time this has Modoki characteristics which impact the Walker circulation. JJA and SON show ENSO Neutral or La Nina.

JAMSTEC (and also NOAA) are showing very warm oceans in many parts of the world.  I have written about that before. It raises questions about the reliability of our current approach to thinking about the ENSO Cycle. This is covered in another article that can be accessed HERE. But JAMSTEC is showing a relatively normal ocean off the coast of much of the U.S. which probably explains their strange forecast.

JAMSTEC uses the same definition of Normal (climatology) as NOAA. JAMSTEC does a better job at characterizing La Ninas and El Ninos than NOAA. JAMSTEC provides me with a lot of other information that I do not include in my articles to keep them to a manageable size for readers.

JAMSTEC has been having some computational issues with its model. From the email I received from them: “Because of changes to the library in our computer, this time we could not complete all members”. Last month they were not able to publish at all. I do not know how to assess their message to me. In November they upgraded their model from 12 members to 36. Their goal is to go to 108. On the website, the images indicate that all members were included. It is not possible to accurately estimate the current conditions. So the technique in ensemble models is to perturb the assumptions slightly for multiple model runs (or use different physics models for some runs) and take the average (mean) of the solutions. Each solution is called a member of the group of solutions for which the mean was taken.  I am intrigued by the coincidence of this “change to the library in our computer” with their publication of this article. Based on the Japanese Culture they would not have released this forecast if they did not have confidence in it.

Some Readers will have to click on “Read More” to read the rest of the article which you need to read to see the forecasts. I can only include a certain amount of material in the lede.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted January 17, 2024

January 17, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the highlights from the NWS.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed Jan 17 2024
Valid 12Z Wed Jan 17 2024 – 12Z Fri Jan 19 2024

…Heavy mountain snows for the Northwest/Rockies; ice storm for portions
of the Pacific Northwest…

…Bands of heavy lake-effect snow continue for the Great Lakes…

…A return to more typical Winter temperatures for many Wednesday after
the brutal cold; another Arctic blast expected late this week…

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report issued today.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted January 16, 2024

January 16, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the highlights from the NWS.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Jan 16 2024
Valid 12Z Tue Jan 16 2024 – 12Z Thu Jan 18 2024

…Snow continues across the Mid Atlantic and Northeast…

…Additional freezing rain and elevation snowfall expected over the
Pacific Northwest…

…Brief reprieve from the brutal cold after this morning; another Arctic
blast expected late this week…

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report issued today.

Looking back at 2023 Weather for the World -Posted on January 15, 2024

January 15, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

Most of the information in this report comes from the monthly email I receive from John Bateman. He does public outreach for NOAA and in particular NCEI. I could find the same information and more on the NCEI website but John produces a good summary so I use it or most of it. I also sometimes add additional information from NCEI or other NOAA websites. The full NCEI report for 2023 can be accessed HERE.

 

 

 

I added the below to what John Bateman provided.

 

2023 was a busy year

 

This is the temperature trend for the world: land and water. There was a big increase in 2923.

 

This is also land and water [corrected previous error) and it is by month and it shows the ENSO state of each month. You can really see that the temperature goes up with the El Nino phase and down with La Nina. It has to do with the releases and absorption of heat by the oceans during the different ENSO Phases. A main reason for that is simple. During La Nina the strong Easterlies along the Pacific skim off the warm surface water is forced into the IndoPacific Warm Pool where it covers a smaller area. When the Easterlies relax during an El Nino the warm water spreads out so the Ocean Surface is warmer. There are other factors also.

 

 

This is just land Globally. It also increased in 2023 but not as much as when including both land and water.

This is for the year but just North America which in not just the U.S. but includes the U.S.   2023 seemed to match but not beat a year about seven years earlier.

 

 

This is December only for North America which includes the U.S. but more than the U.S..  2023 saw a big increase.

This is just the U.S. for December and we have shown this before but you can see that the increase here is less than for North America probably because it does not include Alaska.  I did not include enough graphs to make it easy to figure out but Northern Hemisphere has warmed more than the Southern Hemisphere. It probably has to do with the higher ratio of land to water in the Northern Hemisphere.  When water warms it is not just at the surface so the impact of Global Warming on the surface of water is less than the impact on the surface of land.
Now we will go back to the information in the Bateman email and some readers will have to click on Read More to see the rest of this article.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted January 15, 2024

January 15, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the highlights from the NWS.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Jan 15 2024
Valid 12Z Mon Jan 15 2024 – 12Z Wed Jan 17 2024

…Dangerously cold temperatures continue across much of the U.S…

…Snow and freezing rain continue over the Southern U.S today, spread
into the Mid-Atlantic …

…Heavy lake effect snowfall continues…

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report issued today.

Select Short Term and IntermShort Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted January 14, 2024

January 14, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the highlights from the NWS.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Jan 14 2024
Valid 12Z Sun Jan 14 2024 – 12Z Tue Jan 16 2024

…Dangerous cold temperatures to persist across much of the U.S…

…Significant, impactful wintry precipitation to develop over the
Mid-South later today…

…Significant wintry weather winding down over the Pacific Northwest and
Great Basin…

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report issued today.

Western Drought Update Posted on January 13, 2024

January 13, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

There is a succession of presentations by NOAA on a variety of subjects one of which is drought.  In many cases, the tape of the presentation including the question and answer portion is made available HERE. This one does not seem to have been posted yet but I obtained the graphics from the author. So there is no audio. Any comments in comment boxes are by me and will mostly be explanations that would otherwise be in the audio. The visual quality in the graphics is far better in this article than it would be in the tape of a webinar.

I selected this talk to present because I thought the author was unusually good at addressing multiple pieces of information in a single slide.

I know that I have to start reporting on other parts of the U.S. but the West seemed to be the most impacted early in this El Nino. That is changing so I will be reporting on other parts of the U.S. Each of these articles takes a lot of time for me to prepare.  They are all good but this one is extra good.

 

 

Some readers will have to click on”Read More” to read the full article.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted January 13, 2024

January 13, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the highlights from the NWS.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Jan 13 2024
Valid 12Z Sat Jan 13 2024 – 12Z Mon Jan 15 2024

…Major winter storm continues with significant impacts over the eastern
half of the U.S; more heavy rain in the Northeast through this morning…

…Significant Arctic cold and dangerous wind chills expected through
midweek; some snow and ice possible over the Mid-South…

…Heavy rainfall to return to the West Coast this morning…

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report issued today.

NOAA Updates its ENSO Alert on January 11, 2024 – The El Nino Advisory Continues. Disagreement on When it Will End

January 12, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

On the second Thursday of every month, NOAA (really their Climate Prediction Center CPC) issues its analysis of the status of ENSO. This includes determining the Alert System Status.  NOAA again describes their conclusion as “ENSO Alert System Status: El Nino Advisory”

There is not much doubt that we have an El Nino. How long it lasts and its strength remains to be seen.  This El Nino has not become a Historical El Nino. We will try to address the slight confusion of when the El Nino will end in this article.

We have included some very interesting graphics from and a link to an interesting ENSO Blog article by Emily Becker.

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER ENSO DISCUSSION

The second paragraph is what is important:

“The most recent IRI plume indicates El Niño will gradually weaken and then transition to ENSO-neutral during spring 2024 .  Some state-of the-art dynamical climate models suggest a transition to ENSO-neutral as soon as March-May 2024.  The forecast team, however, delays this timing and strongly favors a transition to ENSO-neutral in April-June 2024.  There are also increasing odds of La Niña in the seasons following a shift to ENSO-neutral.  It is typical for El Niño to peak in December/early January, but despite weakening, its impacts on the United States could last through April (see CPC seasonal outlooks for probabilities of temperature and precipitation).  In summary, El Niño is expected to continue for the next several seasons, with ENSO-neutral favored during April-June 2024 (73% chance).

Below is the middle paragraph from the discussion last month.

” The most recent IRI plume favors El Niño to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2023-24.  Based on the latest forecasts, there is now a 54% chance of a “historically strong” El Niño during the November-January season (³ 2.0°C in Niño-3.4).  An event of this strength would potentially be in the top 5 of El Niño events since 1950.  While stronger El Niño events increase the likelihood of El Niño-related climate anomalies, it does not imply expected impacts will emerge in all locations or be of strong intensity (see CPC seasonal outlooks for probabilities of temperature and precipitation).  In summary, El Niño is expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter, with a transition to ENSO-neutral favored during April-June 2024 (60% chance;).”

We now provide additional detail.  The level of uncertainty with respect to how this El Nino will play out has increased quite a bit.

CPC Probability Distribution

Here are the new forecast probabilities. The probabilities are for three-month periods e.g. DJF stands for December/January/February.

Here is the current release of the probabilities:

This chart shows the forecasted progression of the evolution of ENSO from the current El Nino State to Neutral and by the summer to La Nina.

Here is the forecast from late last month.

The analysis this month and last month are different.  This month the probability of El Nino in MAM is much less than was expected last month.  That is important.