NOAA Updates its ENSO Alert on February 8, 2024 – The El Nino Advisory Continues. The La Nina Watch Begins – Timing of the Transition is Uncertain

February 9, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

On the second Thursday of every month, NOAA (really their Climate Prediction Center CPC) issues its analysis of the status of ENSO. This includes determining the Alert System Status.  NOAA again describes their conclusion as “ENSO Alert System Status: El Nino Advisory La Nino Watch”

The timing of the transition is not very clear which will impact the reliability of the Seasonal Outlook to be issued next Thursday.

We have included an interesting animation from and a link to an ENSO Blog article by Tom Liberto

 

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER ENSO DISCUSSION

The second paragraph is what is important:

“The most recent IRI plume indicates a transition to ENSO-neutral during spring 2024, with La Niña potentially developing during summer 2024.  Even though forecasts made through the spring season tend to be less reliable, there is a historical tendency for La Niña to follow strong El Niño events.  The forecast team is in agreement with the latest model guidance, with some uncertainty around the timing of transitions to ENSO-neutral and, following that, La Niña.  Even as the current El Niño weakens, impacts on the United States could persist through April 2024 (see CPC seasonal outlooks for probabilities of temperature and precipitation).  In summary, a transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely by April-June 2024 (79% chance), with increasing odds of La Niña developing in June-August 2024 (55% chance).”

Below is the middle paragraph from the discussion last month.

“The most recent IRI plume indicates El Niño will gradually weaken and then transition to ENSO-neutral during spring 2024 .  Some state-of the-art dynamical climate models suggest a transition to ENSO-neutral as soon as March-May 2024.  The forecast team, however, delays this timing and strongly favors a transition to ENSO-neutral in April-June 2024.  There are also increasing odds of La Niña in the seasons following a shift to ENSO-neutral.  It is typical for El Niño to peak in December/early January, but despite weakening, its impacts on the United States could last through April (see CPC seasonal outlooks for probabilities of temperature and precipitation).  In summary, El Niño is expected to continue for the next several seasons, with ENSO-neutral favored during April-June 2024 (73% chance).”

We now provide additional details.  The level of uncertainty with respect to how this El Nino will play out has increased a bit.

CPC Probability Distribution

Here are the new forecast probabilities. The probabilities are for three-month periods e.g. JFM stands for January/February/March.

Here is the current release of the probabilities:

This chart shows the forecasted progression of the evolution of ENSO from the current El Nino State to Neutral and by the summer to La Nina.  This kind of  bar chart is not very good at showing uncertainty.

Here is the forecast from last month.

The analysis this month and last month are different.  This month the probability of El Nino in MAM is much more than was expected last month.  That is important.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted February 9, 2024

February 9, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

It is difficult to find a more comprehensive Weather Outlook anywhere else with the ability to get a local 10-day Forecast also.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the highlights from the NWS.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Feb 09 2024
Valid 12Z Fri Feb 09 2024 – 12Z Sun Feb 11 2024

…Unsettled weather continues for the West with locally heavy snowfall
expected for many of the local mountain ranges…

…Heavy rainfall will become a concern this weekend across areas of the
South, and there will be a threat for scattered areas of flash flooding…

…Above average temperatures for the eastern half of the nation through
Saturday, potentially record-breaking for some locations…

Looking out a bit farther and focusing on the more series events:

Above is a 72 hour animation of the forecast.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report issued today.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted February 8, 2024

February 8, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

It is difficult to find a more comprehensive Weather Outlook anywhere else with the ability to get a local 10-day Forecast also.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the highlights from the NWS.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Feb 08 2024
Valid 12Z Thu Feb 08 2024 – 12Z Sat Feb 10 2024

…Unsettled weather continues for the West with moderate to locally heavy
snowfall for many of the local mountain ranges…

…Wintry precipitation for the Northern Plains as shower/thunderstorm
chances increase for the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes Thursday, spreading
into the South Friday…

…Much above average temperatures to end the work week for most of the
central/eastern U.S., record warmth for some locations in the Great Lakes
and Mid-Atlantic…

Looking out a bit farther and focusing on the more series events:

Above is a 72 hour animation of the forecast.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report issued today.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted February 7, 2024

February 7, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

It is difficult to find a more comprehensive Weather Outlook anywhere else with the ability to get a local 10-day Forecast also.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the highlights from the NWS.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed Feb 07 2024
Valid 12Z Wed Feb 07 2024 – 12Z Fri Feb 09 2024

…Moderate to locally heavy rainfall continues for California and the
Desert Southwest…

…Heavy Snow for higher elevations of the Intermountain West; wintry mix
for the Northern Plains…

…Temperatures will continue to run above average for the central/eastern
U.S. with record breaking warmth for parts of the Upper Midwest/Great
Lakes…

Looking out a bit farther and focusing on the more series events:

Above is a 72 hour animation of the forecast.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report issued today.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted February 6, 2024

February 6, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

It is difficult to find a more comprehensive Weather Outlook anywhere else with the ability to get a local 10-day Forecast also.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the highlights from the NWS.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Feb 06 2024
Valid 12Z Tue Feb 06 2024 – 12Z Thu Feb 08 2024

…Heavy rain and flash flooding threat expands from Southern California
into the Desert Southwest Tuesday…

…Heavy Snow for the Intermountain West mountains through mid-week…

…Temperatures will continue to run above average from the Plains to the
Northeast with record breaking warmth for parts of the Upper Midwest…

Looking out a bit farther and focusing on the more series events:

Above is a 72 hour animation of the forecast.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report issued today.

Select Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted February 5, 2024

February 5, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

It is difficult to find a more comprehensive Weather Outlook anywhere else with the ability to get a local 10-day Forecast also.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the highlights from the NWS.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Feb 05 2024
Valid 12Z Mon Feb 05 2024 – 12Z Wed Feb 07 2024

…Life threatening Flash Flooding continues for Southern California
Monday…

…Heavy Snow for parts of the Sierra Nevada, Great Basin, Northern
Rockies, and Four Corners Region…

…Much above average high temperatures continue for the Northern/Central
Plains and Upper Midwest…

Looking out a bit farther and focusing on the more series events:

Above is a 72 hour animation of the forecast.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report issued today.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted February 4, 2024

February 4, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

It is difficult to find a more comprehensive Weather Outlook anywhere else with the ability to get a local 10-day Forecast also.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the highlights from the NWS.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Feb 04 2024
Valid 12Z Sun Feb 04 2024 – 12Z Tue Feb 06 2024

…Life threatening flooding likely across central/southern California
Sunday and Monday…

…Heavy Snow will cause extreme impacts over much of the Sierra Nevada on
Sunday and Monday…

…Showers and thunderstorms expected for portions of the Southeast and
Florida Sunday, with the chance for some severe weather in South Florida…

…Anomalous warmth continues across the Northern/Central Plains and
Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley…

Looking out a bit farther and focusing on the more series events:

Above is a 72 hour animation of the forecast.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report issued today.

Hydroxyl radical: A critical air quality cleaning agent – February 3, 2024

February 3, 2024Posted inClimateNo Comments

I read a Climate.Gov blog post attributed to the Climate.Gov Staff. You can access it HERE.  I spent maybe four hours researching the topic separate from the time it takes to publish this article. I know some chemistry both from college and my work in the mining industry but this was intense. There is a paper written about this topic which you can pay to access HERE. I rarely write about things where the reader can not access the full article without paying for it but I am making an exception today for five reasons:

  • Climate.gov thought it was important to talk about this when they could not provide the underlying article to their readers.  However, I was able to access and include the Abstract in this article.
  • The hydroxyl radical plays a part in cleaning the atmosphere of pollutants including Greenhouse Gases.
  • If you search “Hydroxyl” you will find a lot of literature on this topic.
  • This dinosaur, your author, was intrigued with what is Hydroxyl and why the symbol was OH and not HO.
  • I am interested in Weather Modification to increase precipitation and I thought I needed to know about this.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted February 3, 2024

February 3, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

It is difficult to find a more comprehensive Weather Outlook anywhere else with the ability to get a local 10-day Forecast also.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the highlights from the NWS.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Feb 03 2024
Valid 12Z Sat Feb 03 2024 – 12Z Mon Feb 05 2024

…Showers and thunderstorms Saturday for the Lower Mississippi Valley,
with the risk of scattered flash flooding along the Gulf Coast…

…Moderate to heavy snowfall Saturday for portions of the
Northern/Central Rockies and eastern Great Basin…

…Strong Atmospheric River to bring a considerable risk for flash
flooding and very heavy snow to California beginning Saturday night…

…Mild, well above average temperatures will persist across central
portions of the country this weekend…

Looking out a bit farther and focusing on the more series events:

Above is a 72 hour animation of the forecast.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report issued today.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted February 2, 2024

February 2, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

It is difficult to find a more comprehensive Weather Outlook anywhere else with the ability to get a local 10-day Forecast also.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the highlights from the NWS.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Feb 02 2024
Valid 12Z Fri Feb 02 2024 – 12Z Sun Feb 04 2024

…Unsettled weather for the West Friday as heavy snow continues for the
Sierra and spreads into the Great Basin and Rockies…

…Widespread thunderstorms shift from the Southern Plains Friday to the
Lower Mississippi Valley/Gulf Coast on Saturday, with a threat for severe
weather and flash flooding…

…Mild, well above average temperatures persist across central portions
of the country through this weekend…

Looking out a bit farther and focusing on the more series events:

Above is a 72 hour animation of the forecast.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report issued today.