Sig Silber

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Apr 15 2024
Valid 12Z Mon Apr 15 2024 – 12Z Wed Apr 17 2024

…Intensifying storm system to bring the threat of severe weather and
isolated flash flooding to the Plains Monday, followed by the Mississippi
Valley on Tuesday…

…Scattered thunderstorms, including the threat for some severe weather,
from the Upper Ohio Valley east through the Mid-Atlantic Monday…

…Moderate to locally heavy snowfall expected over the next couple of
days for higher elevations of the northern Cascades, northern/central
Rockies, and eastern Great Basin…

…Well above average temperatures across the Central/Eastern U.S;
Critical Risk of Fire Weather for the central/southern High Plains
Monday….

A deep, upper-level low and associated low pressure/frontal system over
the West will begin to push into the Plains Monday. The accompanying
height falls will help lead to lee cyclogenesis, rapidly
deepening/organizing the low pressure system over the central High Plains.
Gulf moisture return aided by intensifying southerly flow will eventually
lead to increasing shower and thunderstorm chances by Monday evening to
the northwest of the low over the central/northern High Plains, along a
warm front slowly lifting northward through the Missouri and Middle
Mississippi Valleys, and southward ahead of a dry line/rapidly approaching
cold front through the central and southern Plains. An Enhanced Risk of
severe thunderstorms (level 3/5) has been issued by the Storm Prediction
Center from the low pressure center in western Nebraska/South Dakota
arcing southward ahead of the approaching dry line/cold front across
portions of the central Plains. Some more robust, supercell thunderstorms
are expected to produce instances of very large hail, damaging winds, and
a few tornadoes. A Slight Risk (level 2/5) extends southward into the
southern Plains where storm coverage is more uncertain, but any storms
that do develop will still pose the same threat. Additionally, there will
be a conditional threat for some isolated instances of flash flooding,
both along and north of the warm front from the Northern Plains into the
Missouri Valley where widespread, but not quite as potent storms will
exist, and south into portions of the central/southern Plains where more
potent storms will exist, but drier antecedent conditions will limit the
risk.

The storms will progress eastward with the frontal system through the
overnight hours Monday and into the day Tuesday, spreading into the
Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley. Areas where residual
storms from the night before clear, most likely through the Middle
Mississippi Valley southwestward into the Ark-La-Tex, will see a renewed
threat for severe thunderstorms. Another Enhanced Risk has been issued for
portions of southern Iowa, northern Missouri, and western Illinois near
the track of the low pressure center where favorable wind fields will lead
to a locally greater threat of very large hail, damaging winds, and
tornadoes, including the potential for a strong tornado. A Slight Risk
once again extends further south towards the Ark-La-Tex where storms will
likely be more isolated, but still pose a threat for all hazards. A broad
threat for isolated flash flooding will exist over the region very similar
to Monday, with more widespread storms to the north and more isolated but
potent downpours possible to the south.

Further east, another round of storms is expected Monday along and ahead
of a cold front sagging southward through the Upper Ohio/Tennessee Valleys
eastward through the southern Mid-Atlantic. There is a Slight Risk of
severe weather centered around the Tidewater region of Virginia where
enough CAPE for some stronger updrafts will exist, posing a threat for a
few instances of large hail and damaging winds. In the West,
winter-weather related advisories/warnings are in place for higher
elevations of the mountains of the eastern Great Basin and central Rockies
where remaining moisture under the influence of the upper-low is forecast
to lead to snow accumulations of 6-12″+. Another upper-level wave and
accompanying surface frontal system pushing southeastward through the
Cascades Monday and northern Rockies Tuesday will bring a similar chance
for moderate to locally heavy snowfall for higher mountain elevations.

Warmer than average temperatures will continue Monday for most areas of
the central/eastern U.S. as upper-level ridging precedes the system over
the West. Highs generally in the 80s are expected across the
central/southern Plains east through the Mississippi Valley and into the
Mid-Atlantic/Southeast. A few 90s will even be possible over the
central/southern High Plains. These hot temperatures and dry conditions,
along with intensifying winds due to the deepening low pressure system,
have prompted a Critical Risk (level 2/3) of Fire Weather from the Storm
Prediction Center Monday. Warm, similarly above average highs are also
expected across the northern tier, with most locations outside of the
Upper Great Lakes/Interior Northeast forecast to be in the 60s and 70s.
Temperatures will slip a few degrees in general Tuesday, but still remain
above average for most locations. Cooler temperatures will continue Monday
across southern portions of the West under the influence of the upper-low,
with 50s and 60s across California and the Great Basin and 70s in the
Desert Southwest. Conditions will rebound by about 10 degrees on Tuesday
as the upper-low moves eastward over the Plains.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Apr 14 2024
Valid 12Z Sun Apr 14 2024 – 12Z Tue Apr 16 2024

…Severe thunderstorms possible over interior portions of the Northeast
on Sunday…

…Lingering locally heavy showers and moderate to heavy snow in
California Sunday…

…Intensifying storm system over the Plains to bring the threat of severe
weather Monday…

…Well above average temperatures across the central/eastern U.S;
Critical Risk of Fire Weather for the central/southern High Plains
Monday….

An upper-level shortwave/surface frontal system dropping southeast through
the Great Lakes into the Upper Ohio Valley/Interior Northeast Sunday will
bring a renewed chance for showers and thunderstorms. Strong wind fields
overlapping a southward moving cold front from central Ohio east into
Pennsylvania will lead to some supercell structures and potentially a
developing line of more intense thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center
has issued an Enhanced Risk of Severe Weather (level 3/5) for the threat
of some damaging wind gusts with these storms, along with a few instances
of large hail and perhaps a tornado or two. Some locally heavy downpours
will also be possible, and wet antecedent conditions through the terrain
of the Appalachians could lead to an isolated risk of some flash flooding
across this region as well. Storm chances should quickly diminish
overnight Monday as the frontal system pushes southeastward off the East
Coast.

A deep upper-level low and associated surface frontal system over the West
will continue to progress eastward during the day Sunday. A few areas of
heightened precipitation will continue under the influence of the low,
particularly for portions of southern Oregon/northern California and
southern California. Moderate to locally heavy lower elevation
coastal/valley rain showers, including some thunderstorms, are expected.
Moist onshore/upslope flow along the Transverse Ranges of southern
California may lead to a couple inches of rain on top of wet antecedent
soils from Saturday’s rainfall, with an isolated threat for flooding.
Higher elevation mountain snow will also continue in California, with a
few more inches of accumulations forecast for the Sierra Nevada.
Precipiation chances will spread further inland with the system with some
lower elevation valley rain and higher elevation snow possible for the
northern Rockies and central Great Basin Sunday evening, continuing into
Monday for the Great Basin and spreading into the central Rockies. Some
moderate snow accumulations will be possible for the higher mountain
elevations here as well.

As the system spreads into the Plains, lee cyclogenesis will help to
deepen the surface low pressure system, with intensifying moist southerly
flow from the Gulf leading to widespread shower and thunderstorm
development by Monday evening. This will be most likely for upslope
portions of the northern/central High Plains northwest of the low, along
the arcing cold front south across the central/southern Plains, and
eastward along a warm front into the Middle Mississippi Valley. Strong
buoyancy and strengthening low to upper-level flow will lead to the threat
of severe thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a broad
Slight Risk of Severe Weather (level 2/5) across the central/Southern
Plains for the threat of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes.
An Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) has been included over western
Oklahoma/northwest Texas where a locally higher risk for very large hail
exists. While storms will tend to be rather progressive, especially with
southern extent along the cold front, the influx of higher moisture may be
enough for some locally heavier downpours and an attendant isolated risk
for flash flooding. The storms will continue to progress eastward into the
Midwest and Mississippi Valley overnight Monday and into the day Tuesday,
just beyond the current forecast period.

A broad area of well above average temperatures will continue across the
central/eastern U.S. Sunday and Monday as ridging leads the approaching
system over the West. Highs from the central/southern Plains through the
Mississippi Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast will be into the
80s. Some 90s will even be possible Sunday over the central/southern High
Plains. Unfortunately, strengthening winds with the intensifying system
over the Plains on top of dry conditions behind a surface dryline through
the central/southern Plains has prompted a Critical Risk of Fire Weather
(level 2/3) from the Storm Prediction Center for portions of the
central/southern High Plains Monday. Conditions will also be warm along
the northern tier as well, with 60s and 70s from the Northern Plains to
the Great Lakes. Cooler temperatures will prevail over most of the West
under the influence of the upper-low and following cold frontal passage,
with 50s and 60s over California Sunday spreading further into the Great
Basin Monday. Highs in the Desert Southwest will generally be in the 70s.
Warmer temperatures will arc northwest into the Pacific Northwest/Northern
Rockies Sunday, with highs in the 60s and 70s, though cooler temperatures
will also follow here Monday.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Apr 13 2024
Valid 12Z Sat Apr 13 2024 – 12Z Mon Apr 15 2024

…Heavy lower elevation rain, mountain snow, and gusty winds forecast for
California…

…Shower and thunderstorm chances from the Great Lakes into the Northeast
this weekend, with a threat for some severe weather in the Upper Ohio
Valley/central Appalachians Sunday…

…Well above average temperatures across the Interior West/central U.S.
Saturday expand to the East Coast Sunday…

A deep upper-level closed low and associated surface frontal system
approaching the California coast this morning will be the dominant driver
of hazardous weather for the country for at least the next several days.
Pacific moisture flowing inland will bring moderate to locally heavy lower
elevation coastal/valley rain showers and thunderstorms to portions of the
Pacific Northwest and California Saturday. The heaviest rain totals are
expected where the moist flow intersects favorable upslope regions along
the central Coastal Ranges into the Transverse Ranges and northern/central
Sierra, and some isolated instances of flooding could occur. Rainfall
amounts overall should come down into the day Sunday as the system moves
further inland and the influx of moisture from the ocean decreases.
However, some locally heavy amounts are once again possible, particularly
for the Transverse Ranges where wet antecedent conditions from the prior
days rainfall will bring another risk of some isolated flooding. In
addition to rainfall, higher elevations in the northern Coastal Ranges,
Klamath Mountains, and Sierra Nevada will see some moderate snowfall
accumulations, with Winter Weather Advisories in place. Much cooler air
settling in following the passage of the cold front and with the deep
upper-low overhead will even lead to some snow for higher elevations in
the mountains around greater Los Angeles. Some light to moderate lower
elevation rain showers and higher elevation snow will also spread into the
Great Basin Saturday and northern Great Basin/Rockies Sunday. Otherwise,
conditions in vicinity of the system will be rather dry as it pushes
through the Rockies and into the Plains by Monday morning, with a renewed
threat for more widespread showers and thunderstorms, including some
severe weather, later Monday just beyond the current forecast period.
Winds will also be rather gusty as the system passes through the West.

Some lingering areas of light to moderate showers continue this morning
across portions of the Great Lakes/Interior Northeast, rotating around a
deep cyclone located in southeastern Canada. Some higher elevations of the
Appalachians may see some snow mix in. Gusty winds will remain in place as
well. Shower chances should taper off into the day as the cyclone moves
away from the U.S. However, a clipper-like system dropping southeast from
Canada will bring a renewed chance of moderate showers and thunderstorms
Sunday to the Interior Northeast, Lower Great Lakes, Upper Ohio Valley,
and central/northern Appalachians. A strengthening upper-level wind field
will overlap enough surface moisture/buoyancy to lead to the threat of
some severe thunderstorms, with a Slight Risk (level 2/5) from the Storm
Prediction Center from eastern Ohio into central Pennsylvania. Damaging
winds will be the main threat, though some large hail and a tornado or two
will be possible as well.

A broad area of high temperatures 10-20 degrees above average will expand
from the Interior West/Plains into the eastern U.S. this weekend as an
upper-level trough departs the East Coast. Some of the greatest anomalies
will be over portions of the northern/central Plains on Saturday, where
highs into the 80s are upwards of 20-30 degrees above average. A few near
record-tying/breaking highs will be possible Sunday across parts of the
central/southern Plains into the Middle Mississippi Valley as highs reach
into the mid-80s to low 90s. The combination of warmer temperatures as
well as dry antecedent conditions and gusty winds have prompted an
Elevated Risk of Fire Weather (level 1/3) from the Storm Prediction Center
for portions of the central/southern High Plains Saturday and Sunday. In
contrast, highs will be cool and well below average in California
Saturday, spreading into portions of the central Great Basin and Desert
Southwest Sunday, as the Pacific system pushes inland.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
356 AM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Valid 12Z Fri Apr 12 2024 – 12Z Sun Apr 14 2024

…Powerful low pressure system to produce gusty winds and heavy rain
across parts of the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Northeast through
Friday…

…Lower elevation rain and mountain snow to enter California on
Saturday…

…Well above average temperatures forecast to surge into the
northern/central Plains this weekend…

A broad area of showers and thunderstorms across the Midwest and into the
Northeast will continue Friday as a deep cyclone over the Great Lakes
slowly shifts into Canada. Showers should taper off from west to east
across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley as the low departs, with more moderate
to heavy rainfall most likely along the Appalachians into the Lower Great
Lakes. The heaviest rainfall is expected ahead of a trailing cold front
through New England where an influx of moist southeasterly flow off the
Atlantic along upslope portions of the northern Appalachians contributes
to some more potent storms and rain totals. A Slight Risk of Excessive
Rainfall (level 2/4) has been issued for portions of New Hampshire and
Maine along and ahead of the White Mountains where the combination of
heavy rain and snowmelt could lead to some instances of flooding. Some
lighter lingering showers will last into Saturday, particularly for
interior portions of the Northeast. Conditions will also remain breezy
across the region with Wind Advisories in place for portions of the Great
Lakes, Appalachians, and New England.

In the West, some light lower elevation rain showers and higher
elevation/mountain snow showers will be possible along a frontal system
pushing southward through portions of the northern Great Basin and Pacific
Northwest Friday. An approaching Pacific system will bring higher
precipitation chances spreading southward into California later Friday and
into the day Saturday. Some moderate to locally heavy showers will be
possible along the coast, with accumulating snowfall expected for the
Northern Coastal Ranges, Klamath Mountains, and Sierra Nevada. A Winter
Weather Advisory has been issued for southern portions of the Sierra where
6-12 inches of snow is forecast. Gusty winds are expected here as well,
especially along the area mountain ranges.

Cooler, below average temperatures will spread eastward from the Lower
Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Tennessee Valley Friday into the
Northeast/Mid-Atlantic Saturday following recent cold front passage. Highs
will tend to be at or just below average further south into the Southeast
and Florida. A broad area of much above average temperatures across the
West/Plains Friday will expand into the Mississippi Valley Saturday as
upper-level ridging shifts eastward over the central U.S. The greatest
anomalies will reside over the northern and central Plains Saturday, where
highs into the 80s are upwards of 20-25 degrees above normal. Much cooler
temperatures will arrive in California Saturday as the Pacific system
begins to move inland.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Apr 11 2024
Valid 12Z Thu Apr 11 2024 – 12Z Sat Apr 13 2024

…Powerful storm system to foster high wind potential over much of the
eastern U.S. today with severe weather, heavy rain and flash flood threats
for parts of the Southeast, upper Ohio Valley and into the northern
Mid-Atlantic…

…High wind threat continues across the Great Lakes, Northeast, and into
the Appalachians on Friday into early Saturday as flash flood threat will
be confined to northern New England…

An intensifying low pressure system centered over the Mid-South early this
morning is forecast to track northeast toward the Great Lakes through
tonight. This system will progressively engulf the entire eastern U.S.
today with widespread moderate rainfall and a couple axes of heavy rain.
The heaviest rains will be associated with clusters of strong to severe
thunderstorms across the Southeast ahead of a potent cold front where a
few inches of rain can be expected. Another area of heavy rain will be
near and along the track of the intense low pressure system center, from
the Mid-Mississippi Valley across the Ohio Valley toward the lower Great
Lakes where 2 inches of rain can be expected. The intensity and size of
the system will bring the threat of high winds into much of the eastern
U.S. including the Great Lakes, Midwest and the Ohio Valley through the
next couple of days. The southern portion of the potent cold front is
forecast to move off the Southeast U.S. this evening, bringing the heavy
rain and thunderstorms out into the Atlantic. The front will take extra
time to pass through Florida, where a line of strong to severe
thunderstorms is forecast to pass through the peninsula today into tonight.
Meanwhile, warm and moist air from the Atlantic will surge up the Eastern
Seaboard tonight with widespread moderate to locally heavy rain under very
strong and gusty south-southeasterly winds.

Friday will likely see the moderate to heavy rain and high winds impacting
the Great Lakes and the entire Northeast as the Mid-Atlantic clears out
from the rain. The center of the low pressure system should begin exiting
the Great Lakes into southern Canada early on Friday. However, the size
and intensity of the storm will keep the high winds and heavy rain threat
into Saturday morning from the lower Great Lakes to the Northeast with
flash flooding threat to be confined across northern New England.

Outside of the big storm in the eastern U.S., the weather will be
relatively quiet across the Southwest and through the mid-section of the
country under the influence of a high pressure system. The West Coast
will see somewhat more active weather dropping in from north to south
through the next couple of days as a compact but energetic upper low that
originated from the Arctic Ocean dips south and approaches California by
Saturday morning. Mainly light to locally moderate precipitation can be
expected to reach coastal Pacific Northwest today, reaching into northern
California on Friday before sliding south into central California by
Saturday morning. Some of the precipitation will spill into the interior
section of the Northeast by Friday and continue into Saturday morning.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Valid 12Z Wed Apr 10 2024 – 12Z Fri Apr 12 2024

…Heavy rain, flash flooding and severe weather threat associated with an
intensifying low pressure system will sweep across the Arklatex region
today, reaching into the interior South tonight…

…The low pressure system will bring an expanding heavy rain and high
wind threat into much of the eastern U.S. on Thursday with severe weather
threat across the Southeast and upper Ohio Valley…

…High winds along with widespread moderate to heavy rain expected to
impact the entire Eastern Seaboard into the Great Lakes Thursday night
into Friday morning…

A low pressure system is currently consolidating over southern Texas as a
dynamic upper-level trough is getting ready to move off northern Mexico
and then vigorously interact with moisture returning from the Gulf of
Mexico. The clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms that have already
formed and impacted the western Gulf states are just a precursor of what
the system may produce later today when it is forecast to intensify
rapidly with thunderstorms erupting over the Arklatex region. These
thunderstorms are expected to contain very heavy rain, hail, high winds,
and the possibility of tornadoes across the interior South through tonight
as a potent cold front is forecast to sweep across from west to east. The
low pressure system itself is forecast to intensify, expand and track
toward the northeast for the next couple of days, with moderate to heavy
rainfall engulfing much of the eastern U.S. by Thursday. The heaviest
rainfall is expected to impact the central to eastern Gulf coast region
today through Thursday morning, with another heavy rain axis from the
Arklatex region to the Midwest following the center of the intensifying
low pressure system. The low pressure system is forecast to intensify and
expand further Thursday night into Friday morning, bringing high winds
into much of the eastern U.S. as well as the Great Lakes, Midwest and the
Ohio Valley. Thunderstorms should exit the Southeast by Friday morning as
the cold front moves off the coast. However, the Mid-Atlantic and
virtually the entire Northeast will likely be engulfed by moderate to
heavy rain along with high winds especially just ahead of the potent cold
front trailing south from the center of the intense and expanding low
pressure system.

Outside of the intensifying low pressure system, relatively quiet weather
is expected for the next couple of days with a stable upper ridging
building into the western U.S. Scattered rain and snow showers are
expected to fall across the northern Rockies and northern High Plains
today before reaching into the northern Plains as a clipper system swings
across these areas. Light precipitation is forecast to reach the Pacific
Northwest Thursday night with the arrival of the next Pacific system.
Otherwise, improvement in the fire weather threat is expected across the
southern High Plains where elevated fire danger is confined to the Texas
Big Bend today, followed by portions of the central Plains on Thursday.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Apr 09 2024
Valid 12Z Tue Apr 09 2024 – 12Z Thu Apr 11 2024

…Heavy rain, flash flooding and severe weather threat will expand across
the Southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley through Wednesday,
reaching into Midwest, Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and the Southeast by
Thursday morning…

…Critical fire danger shifts into Texas Big Bend and Rio Grande Valley…

Following the 2024 Great American Eclipse, a developing low pressure
system over the southern Plains will become the main weather story for the
next couple of days. A vigorous upper-level trough exiting the southern
Rockies/ northern Mexico will continue to interact with moisture returning
from the Gulf of Mexico to deliver sprawling areas of heavy rain and
embedded severe thunderstorms first across eastern Texas into the Arklatex
region today, before expanding into the Texas Panhandle tonight. The
dynamic interaction will then consolidate and intensify a low pressure
system gradually over eastern Texas tonight, before taking the system more
rapidly northeastward across the Arklatex region on Wednesday. It appears
that a potent cold front trailing south from the low center will be the
focus for strong to severe thunderstorms across eastern Texas Wednesday
morning, through the lower Mississippi Valley on Wednesday, before
reaching into the eastern Gulf states and the Florida Panhandle by early
on Thursday. Less of a severe weather threat is forecast for areas north
of the low pressure center track. Meanwhile, heavy rain could lead to
flooding concerns from the Texas Panhandle tonight, with the highest
threat across the Mid-South through Wednesday, before spreading into the
Midwest and lower Great Lakes early on Thursday. Winds will become
increasingly strong and gusty as the low pressure system becomes quite
strong by Thursday morning.

Outside of the intensifying low pressure system, relatively quiet weather
is expected for the next couple of days. The cloud cover and areas of rain
across the northern Plains into the upper Great Lakes are forecast to
taper off tonight as an old cyclone continues to fill and departs into
southern Canada. Scattered showers will then reach into the lower Great
Lakes Tuesday night, and continue to spread into New England Wednesday
night. The Pacific Northwest will see the arrival of a frontal zone with
some moisture and high elevation light snows into the northern Cascades
and eventually Rockies Tuesday before drying out on Wednesday. A warming
trend is in store for the West and East Coast, as well as the northern
tier states while cooler than normal temperatures will linger across the
South behind the intensifying low pressure system.