Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted July 20, 2024

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Jul 20 2024
Valid 12Z Sat Jul 20 2024 – 12Z Mon Jul 22 2024

…A break in the heat continues for much of the eastern two-thirds of the
country but heat will intensify in the interior Pacific Northwest through
this weekend…

…Scattered thunderstorms continue across the South and Southeast as
monsoonal thunderstorms linger across the Four Corners region…

…Scattered thunderstorms over the central Plains today will gradually
shift in the southern Plains by Monday while a cold front will bring new
rounds of thunderstorms across the northern tier states…

A cool air mass settling in across the eastern two-thirds of the country
will offer an extended reprieve from the heat through the next few days.
Afternoon high temperatures will only reach into the 70s and 80s today
from the northern and central Plains eastward through the Atlantic coast
with the exception of the Sunshine State and the coastal plain of Georgia
and South Carolina where highs will remain in the 90s. Texas will have
highs into the 90s to near 100 this afternoon but will cool down into the
70s and 80s by Monday. In contrast, the heat across the western U.S. is
expected to persist, with high temperatures once again exceeding 100
degrees across much of the region. The interior Pacific Northwest will
feel the heat intensify, with afternoon readings possibly reaching 110
degrees at the hottest locations by Sunday afternoon along with little
overnight relief. Daily highs across the Southwest will generally hover
in the 110s. Please continue to practice heat safety in this persistent
and prolonged heat wave in the western U.S. through the next couple of
days. A Pacific cold front will approach the West Coast on Monday,
lowering the heat only slightly for inland sections.

The upper level pattern will be slow to change across the lower 48 through
the next few days. A nearly stationary front will remain draped across the
South and into the Mid-Atlantic region, keeping the cooler air north of
the boundary and the warm, moist air to the south. The front will also
help focusing and triggering scattered thunderstorms from the Gulf Coast
to the Southeast through the next few days. For the Southwest/Four
Corners region, monsoonal moisture will continue to support on-and-off
thunderstorms through the weekend. These storms will keep an elevated
threat for isolated to scattered flash flooding and severe weather, which
may result from the strongest of the storms. Meanwhile, scattered
thunderstorms over the central Plains today will gradually shift into the
southern Plains by Monday as a weak low pressure wave slowly digs
southward. Across the northern tier states, a cold front arriving from
central Canada will bring new rounds of thunderstorms from the northern
Plains through northern New England during the next couple of days.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

NOAA Updates its Seasonal Outlook on July 18, 2024 – Substantially Different from the Outlook Issued last Month – Posted on July 19, 2024

On the third Thursday of the month right on schedule NOAA issued their updated Seasonal Outlook which I describe as their Four-Season Outlook because it extends a bit more than one year into the future. The information released also included the Mid-Month Outlook for the following month plus the weather and drought outlook for the next three months.  I present the information issued by NOAA and try to add context to it. It is quite a challenge for NOAA to address the subsequent month, the subsequent three-month period as well as the twelve successive three-month periods for a year or a bit more.

With respect to the long-term part of the Outlook which I call the Four-Season Outlook, the timing of the transition from Neutral to LaNina is challenging to predict.  We are now in ENSO Neutral. La Nina is the likely scenario for this summer almost to the end of the forecast period.

First, Let’s Take a Look at the (mid-month) Outlook for August

It will be updated on the last day of July.

The top row is what is now called the Mid-Month Outlook for next month which will be updated at the end of this month. There is a temperature map and a precipitation map. The second row is a three-month outlook that includes next month.  I think the outlook maps are self-explanatory. What is important to remember is that they show deviations from the current definition of normal which is the period 1991 through 2020.  So this is not a forecast of the absolute value of temperature or precipitation but the change from what is defined as normal or to use the technical term “climatology”.

Notice that the Outlook for next month and the three-month Outlook are fairly similar. This tells us that September and October will be fairly similar to August.

The expansion of the area impacted by drought development is extensive but different than what was predicted last month.  There is also a large area of drought improvement.

The full NOAA Seasonal Outlook extends through August/September/October of 2025 (yes that is more than a year out). All of these maps are in the body of the article. Large maps are provided for August and the three-month period August/September/October.  Small maps are provided beyond that through August/September/October of 2025 with a link to get larger versions of these maps.

NOAA provides a discussion to support the maps. It is included in the body of this article. In some cases, one will need to click on “read more” to read the full article. For those on my email list where I have sent the url of the article, that will not be necessary.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted July 19, 2024

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Jul 19 2024
Valid 12Z Fri Jul 19 2024 – 12Z Sun Jul 21 2024

…A break in the heat is expected for much of the eastern two-thirds of
the country but triple-digit heat will continue in the West through this
weekend…

…Scattered thunderstorms will be confined across the South and Southeast
as monsoonal thunderstorms linger across the Four Corners region…

…Strong to severe thunderstorms possible today over the north-central
Plains…

A cool air mass arriving from central Canada is bringing a welcome relief
to the heat and humidity into the northeastern quadrant of the country
today. Temperatures as high as the 100s a couple of days ago in the
Mid-Atlantic will only recover to around 90 degrees this afternoon with
lower humidity. On the other hand, the heat across the western U.S. is
expected to persist through this weekend, with high temperatures once
again exceeding 100 degrees across much of the region. In fact, the heat
is forecast to intensify over the interior Pacific Northwest, with
readings possibly reaching 110 degrees at the hottest locations by Sunday
afternoon along with little overnight relief. Meanwhile, high
temperatures well into the 110s will be common across the Desert
Southwest. Please continue to practice heat safety in this persistent and
prolonged heat wave in the western U.S. throughout this coming weekend.

The upper-level pattern that supports the heat the West and the cooler
weather across the central to eastern U.S. will be slow to evolve through
the next few days. A front that separates the cool air from the warm and
moist air along the Gulf Coast will remain stationary across the South.
Scattered thunderstorms will be confined in the warm sector across the
South and Southeast where they will linger through the weekend.
Meanwhile, monsoonal moisture will support thunderstorms across the Four
Corners region, lingering on-and-off through the weekend. Isolated to
scattered flash flooding and severe weather may result from the strongest
storms. Farther north, a weak low pressure wave will likely trigger
thunderstorms which could become strong to severe over the north-central
Plains today into tonight. Additional thunderstorms are expected to track
farther east toward Iowa and Missouri during the weekend.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Looking Back at June 2024 for the U.S.. and the World – Published July 18, 2024

Much of the information in this report comes from the monthly emails I receive from John Bateman. He does public outreach for NOAA and in particular NCEI. I could find the same information and more on the NCEI website but John Bateman produces a good summary so I use it or most of it. I also add additional information from NCEI or other NOAA websites. At the end of the article, I provide links that will get you to the full reports and much additional information.

 My comments if any are in boxes like this one.

 

I start with the trends of June, 2024 Temperature looking at North America and then the World both land and water. There is a graphic for just CONUS but the format is different and it is not as easy to read.

This is the temperature trend for North America. It covers a larger geographical area than just CONUS but I find it easier to read. It almost looks like the temperature has plateaued.

The temperature for the world, land and ocean hit a new record.

The temperature for the world, land only hit a new record. Notice that land temperatures increase  faster than land and ocean as water takes more energy

To read the rest of this article some will have to click on “Read More”.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted July 18, 2024

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Jul 18 2024
Valid 12Z Thu Jul 18 2024 – 12Z Sat Jul 20 2024

…There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
southern Mid-Atlantic on Thursday…

…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the southern
Mid-Atlantic, Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley, and Southern High
Plains/Southern Rockies on Thursday and over the southern Mid-Atlantic and
Southern Rockies on Friday…

…There are Excessive Heat Warnings/Watches and Heat Advisories over
parts of the Pacific Northwest into parts of California/Southwest…

A front extending from Northern New England to the Mid-Atlantic and then
southwestward to the Central Gulf Coast and western Texas will move off
the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic Coast by Friday. Also, the southern half of
the boundary will linger near the Southeast and across the Gulf Coast
States through Friday evening. The lingering boundary will produce
showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic.
Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic through Friday
morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent
lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a minimal threat of
tornadoes.

In addition, the showers and thunderstorms will create heavy rain over
parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight
Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the southern
Mid-Atlantic through Friday morning. The associated heavy rain will
create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads,
small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable.

A Second area of heavy rain will develop along the front over parts of the
Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the WPC has issued a
Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern
Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley through Friday morning. The associated
heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with
urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most
vulnerable. Moreover, tropical moisture and upper-level impulses will
produce showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Gulf Coast to the
Southeast.

Further, a third area of heavy rain will develop over parts of the
Southern High Plains/Southern Rockies. Therefore, the WPC has issued a
Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern
High Plains/Southern Rockies through Friday morning. The associated heavy
rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban
areas, roads, small streams, low-lying areas, and burn scars the most
vulnerable.

In addition, moisture over the Southwest and daytime heating will produce
showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Great Basin and Southwest from
the late afternoon into late evening. Additionally, on Thursday,
upper-level impulses going over an upper-level ridge over the Northern
Rockies/Northern High Plains and moisture will produce scattered showers
and thunderstorms over parts of the Northern/Central Rockies.

On Friday, the tropical moisture and nearby boundary will produce showers
and thunderstorms over the Central Gulf Coast to the Southeast and
southern Mid-Atlantic. Some showers and thunderstorms will create heavy
rain over parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic. Therefore, the WPC has
issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the
southern Mid-Atlantic from Friday through Saturday morning. The
associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the
most vulnerable.

Furthermore, monsoonal moisture and daytime heating will aid in producing
showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Southwest, Great Basin, and
Central/Southern Rockies from the late afternoon into late evening. An
area of showers and thunderstorms will create heavy rain over parts of the
Southern Rockies/High Plains. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk
(level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern
Rockies/Southern High Plains from Friday through Saturday morning. The
associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, low-lying areas, and
burn scars the most vulnerable.

Moreover, the upper-level energy moving out of the Northern Rockies into
the Northern/Central Plains will produce showers and strong to severe
thunderstorms with areas of heavy rain. Therefore, the SPC has issued a
Marginal Risk (level 1/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Northern/Central High Plains from Friday through Saturday morning. The
hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a minimal threat of tornadoes.
Additionally, the WPC has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) of excessive
rainfall over parts of the Northern/Central Plains from Friday through
Saturday morning. The associated heavy rain will create localized areas
of flash flooding, affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with heavy
rain.

Meanwhile, upper-level ridging will build over the Northern Rockies to the
Southwest, spawning Excessive Heat Warnings/Watches and Heat Advisories
over parts of the Pacific Northwest from Thursday into Saturday. Moreover,
the upper-level ridge has prompted Excessive Heat Watches and Heat
Advisories over parts of California and the Southwest. The ridging will
create widespread high temperatures in the 90s to 100s followed by little
overnight relief, with lows in the upper 60s to 70s representing a 20-35
degree departure from average for many areas. The multi-day nature of this
event will create dangerous conditions, particularly for people who are
especially vulnerable to the effects of heat, such as young children,
older adults, people with chronic medical conditions, and pregnant women.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

North American Monsoon Special Edition Drought Status Update Posted on July 17, 2024

I thought this National Integrated Drought Information System  (NIDIS) North American Monsoon (NAM) Status Update was interesting. I have presented the information which describes the NAM and what June weather has been like but I did not include the forecast graphics since there will be a new NOAA Outlook issued on Thursday so I did not see the value of presenting the forecasts from last month.

Some will need to click on “Read More” to read the full article.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted July 17, 2024

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed Jul 17 2024
Valid 12Z Wed Jul 17 2024 – 12Z Fri Jul 19 2024

…There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Mid-Atlantic to New England on Wednesday…

…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Mid-Atlantic, Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley, and Southern High
Plains/Southern Rockies on Wednesday and over the southern Mid-Atlantic
and Southern Rockies on Thursday…

…There are Excessive Heat Warnings/Watches and Heat Advisories over
parts of the Pacific Northwest and parts of the Southern Plains to the
Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast, and New England Coast to the
Mid-Atlantic Coast…

A front extending from the Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley across the Middle
Mississippi Valley into the Southern Plains will move slowly off the
Northeast and Mid-Atlantic Coast by Friday. Also, on Friday, the southern
half of the boundary will linger near the Southeast and across the Gulf
Coast States. The boundary will produce showers and severe thunderstorms
over parts of Northern New England to the Mid-Atlantic. Therefore, the SPC
has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of
Northern New England to the Mid-Atlantic through Thursday morning. The
hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts and a minimal threat for hail and tornadoes.

In addition, the showers and thunderstorms will create heavy rain over
parts of the Mid-Atlantic. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk
(level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Mid-Atlantic through
Thursday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized
areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and
low-lying areas the most vulnerable.

A Second area of heavy rain will develop along the front over parts of the
Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the WPC has issued a
Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern
Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley through Thursday morning. The associated
heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with
urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable.

Moreover, a third area of heavy rain will develop near the boundary over
parts of the Southern High Plains/Southern Rockies. Therefore, the WPC has
issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Southern High Plains/Southern Rockies through Thursday morning. The
associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, low-lying areas, and
burn scars the most vulnerable.

Furthermore, moisture over the Southwest and daytime heating will produce
showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Great Basin and Southwest late
afternoon into late evening. Additionally, on Wednesday, upper-level
impulses and tropical moisture will produce showers and thunderstorms over
parts of the Southeast.

On Thursday, as the front moves southeastward, showers and strong to
severe thunderstorms will develop over parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic.
Therefore, the SPC has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the over parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic
from Thursday through Friday morning. The hazards associated with these
thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, and
a minimal threat of hail and tornadoes.

The showers and thunderstorms will create heavy rain over parts of the
southern Mid-Atlantic. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level
2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic from
Thursday through Friday morning. The associated heavy rain will create
mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small
streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable.

A second area of showers and strong to severe thunderstorms will develop
over parts of the Central/Southern High Plains as moisture interacts with
upper-level impulses. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Marginal Risk (level
1/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the over parts of the
Central/Southern High Plains from Thursday through Friday morning. The
hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a minimal threat of tornadoes.

Likewise, the showers and thunderstorms will create heavy rain over parts
of the Southern Rockies. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk
(level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern Rockies from
Thursday through Friday morning. The associated heavy rain will create
mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small
streams, low-lying areas, and burn scars the most vulnerable.

Meanwhile, upper-level ridging will build over the Northwest, spawning
Heat Advisories over the region from Wednesday into Friday. Moreover, a
flat upper-level ridge extending from the Lower Mississippi Valley
eastward to the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast will aid in creating a major to
extreme HeatRisk for the East Coast part of the country. The heat has
prompted Excessive Heat Warnings/Watches and Heat Advisories over parts of
the Southern Plains to the Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast. A second
area of heat has prompted Excessive Heat Warnings/Watches and Heat
Advisories extending from the Mid-Atlantic to parts of New England. On
Wednesday, the near-record temperatures and high humidity suggest Major to
Extreme HeatRisk conditions for portions of the East. Extremely dangerous
and potentially deadly heat, particularly for urban areas in the Southeast
and East Coast, are forecast. Many daily record highs are possible for the
East Coast, and numerous warm overnight lows will provide little relief
from the heat overnight. Heat stress will build rapidly for those without
adequate cooling or hydration. However, a strong cold front will bring
relief as it sweeps across most of the Eastern U.S. from Wednesday into
Thursday. This front will be accompanied by showers and thunderstorms.
Some thunderstorms could be severe, especially in the Northeast.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted July 16, 2024

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Jul 16 2024
Valid 12Z Tue Jul 16 2024 – 12Z Thu Jul 18 2024

…There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Central/Southern Plains and Northeast/Mid-Atlantic/Central Appalachians on
Tuesday and the Mid-Atlantic to New England on Wednesday…

…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Central/Southern High Plains roughly eastward to the Ohio Valley on
Tuesday and the Southern Rockies, Lower Mississippi Valley, and Central
Appalachians on Wednesday…

…There are Excessive Heat Warnings/Watches and Heat Advisories over
parts of the Pacific Northwest and parts of the Southern Plains to the
Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley, Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, and Central Gulf
Coast…

A front extending from the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley across the Middle
Mississippi Valley into the Central Plains will move slowly to the
Northeast, Mid-Atlantic/Central Appalachians across the Lower Mississippi
Valley, and then into the Southern Plains by Thursday. The boundary will
produce showers and severe thunderstorms over the
Northeast/Mid-Atlantic/Central Appalachians. Therefore, the SPC has issued
a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Northeast/Mid-Atlantic/Central Appalachians through Wednesday morning.
The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning,
severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.

A Second area of showers and severe thunderstorms will develop over parts
of the Central/Southern Plains. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight
Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the over parts of
the Central High Plains from Tuesday through Wednesday morning. The
hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.

In addition, the showers and thunderstorms will create heavy rain over
parts of the Central/Southern High Plains roughly eastward to the Ohio
Valley. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of
excessive rainfall over parts of the Central/Southern High Plains eastward
to the Ohio Valley through Wednesday morning. The associated heavy rain
will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas,
roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable.

Moreover, moisture over the Southwest and diurnal heating will produce
late afternoon into late evening showers and thunderstorms over parts of
the Great Basin, Southwest, and Central/Southern Rockies. Furthermore, on
Tuesday, upper-level energy and tropical moisture will produce showers and
thunderstorms from parts of the Central Gulf Coast eastward to the
Southeast.

On Wednesday, as the front moves eastward, showers and severe
thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Eastern Ohio Valley, Lower
Great Lakes, Central Appalachian, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast. Therefore,
the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over
parts of the over parts of the Mid-Atlantic to New England from Wednesday
through Thursday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms
are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, and a minimal
threat of hail and tornadoes. Furthermore, showers and strong to severe
thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Central/Southern High Plains.

Areas along the front will produce heavy rain over parts of the Lower
Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level
2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley and
adjacent parts of the Southern Plains and Tennessee Valley from Wednesday
through Thursday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly
localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams,
and low-lying areas the most vulnerable.

A second area of heavy rain will develop over parts of the Central
Appalachians. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of
excessive rainfall over parts of the Central Appalachians from Wednesday
through Thursday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly
localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams,
and low-lying areas the most vulnerable.

In addition, moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will extend northwestward
into the Southern Rockies, producing heavy rain. Therefore, the WPC has
issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Southern Rockies from Wednesday through Thursday morning. The associated
heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with
urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable.

Also, on Wednesday, upper-level energy and tropical moisture will produce
showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Central Gulf Coast to the
Southeast. Further, moisture over the Southwest and the Central/Southern
Rockies, along with diurnal heating, will produce late afternoon into late
evening showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Great Basin,
Southwest, and Central/Southern Rockies. Furthermore, on Wednesday,
upper-level energy moving over parts of the Pacific Northwest will produce
rain with embedded thunderstorms over the area.

Meanwhile, upper-level ridging will build over the Northwest, spawning
Heat Advisories over the region from Tuesday into Thursday. Moreover, a
flat upper-level ridge extending from the Lower Mississippi Valley
eastward to the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast will aid in creating a major to
extreme HeatRisk for the East Coast part of the country. The developing
heat has prompted Excessive Heat Warnings/Watches and Heat Advisories over
parts of the Southern Plains to the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley,
Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, and Central Gulf Coast. A second area of Excessive
Heat Warnings/Watches and Heat Advisories extending from the Mid-Atlantic
to parts of New England. The near-record temperatures and high humidity
suggest Major to Extreme HeatRisk conditions for portions of the East,
Tuesday and Wednesday. Extremely dangerous and potentially deadly heat,
particularly for urban areas in the Southeast and East Coast, are
forecast. Many daily record highs are possible for the East Coast, and
numerous warm overnight lows will provide little relief from the heat
overnight. Heat stress will build rapidly for those without adequate
cooling or hydration.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted July 15, 2024

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Jul 15 2024
Valid 12Z Mon Jul 15 2024 – 12Z Wed Jul 17 2024

…There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Middle Mississippi Valley/Western Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes on
Monday and a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Eastern
Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes/Northeast and over portions of the Central
High Plains on Tuesday…

…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Middle
Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes on Monday and the Middle
Mississippi Valley to Ohio Valley on Tuesday…

…There are Excessive Heat Warnings/Watches and Heat Advisories over
parts of the Mid-Atlantic to New England and over parts of
Central/Southern Plains and Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley and parts of
the Western Ohio Valley/Western Tennessee Valley…

A front extending from the Great Lakes across the Middle Mississippi
Valley into the Northern Plains will move to the Lower Great Lakes/Ohio
Valley across the Middle Mississippi Valley and trail off into the
Northern Plains by Wednesday. A wave of low pressure over the Northern
Plains will move northeastward to the Upper Great Lakes by Monday evening,
bringing the cold front northward into the Upper Great Lakes to the Middle
Mississippi Valley/Central Plains. On Monday, the boundary will produce
showers and severe thunderstorms over the Middle Mississippi
Valley/Western Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes. Therefore, the SPC has
issued an Enhanced Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of
the Middle Mississippi Valley/Western Ohio Valley through Tuesday morning.
The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning,
severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Moreover, there
is an increased threat of severe thunderstorm wind gusts of 65 knots or
greater, mainly over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley/Western Ohio
Valley.

In addition, the showers and thunderstorms will create heavy rain over
parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes. Therefore,
the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over
parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes through
Tuesday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized
areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and
low-lying areas the most vulnerable.

Furthermore, on Monday, upper-level energy and tropical moisture will
produce showers and thunderstorms from parts of the Central Gulf Coast
eastward to the Southeast. Additionally, moisture over the Southwest and
diurnal heating will produce late afternoon into late evening showers and
thunderstorms over parts of the Great Basin, Southwest, and
Central/Southern Rockies.

On Tuesday, the threat of severe thunderstorms reduces slightly. As the
front moves eastward, showers and severe thunderstorms will develop over
parts of the Eastern Ohio Valley, Lower Great Lakes, and Northeast.
Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the over parts of the Eastern Ohio
Valley/Lower Great Lakes/Northeast from Tuesday through Wednesday morning.
The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning,
severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.

Furthermore, showers and thunderstorms will produce heavy rain over parts
of the Middle Mississippi Valley to Ohio Valley. Therefore, the WPC has
issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Middle Mississippi Valley to Ohio Valley from Tuesday through Wednesday
morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of
flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying
areas the most vulnerable.

Moreover, as the western end of the front moves across the Central High
Plains, showers and severe thunderstorms will develop over the region.
Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the over parts of the Central High Plains from
Tuesday through Wednesday morning. The hazards associated with these
thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts,
hail, and a minimal threat of tornadoes.

Also, upper-level energy and tropical moisture will produce showers and
thunderstorms over parts of the Southeast. Further, moisture over the
Southwest and the Central/Southern Rockies, along with diurnal heating,
will produce late afternoon into late evening showers and thunderstorms
over parts of the Great Basin, Southwest, and Central/Southern Rockies.

Meanwhile, a flat upper-level ridge extending from the Four Corners Region
eastward to the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast will aid in creating a major to
extreme HeatRisk for the East part of the country. The developing heat has
prompted Excessive Heat Warnings/Watches and Heat Advisories over parts of
the Mid-Atlantic to New England and over parts of the Central/Southern
Plains and Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley and parts of the Western Ohio
Valley/Western Tennessee Valley. The near-record temperatures and high
humidity suggest Major to Extreme HeatRisk conditions for portions of the
East, Monday and Tuesday. Extremely dangerous and potentially deadly heat,
particularly for urban areas in the Southeast and East Coast, are forecast
for Monday and Tuesday. Many daily record highs are possible for the East
Coast, and numerous warm overnight lows will provide little relief from
the heat overnight. Heat stress will build rapidly for those without
adequate cooling or hydration.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted July 14, 2024

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Jul 14 2024
Valid 12Z Sun Jul 14 2024 – 12Z Tue Jul 16 2024

….There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley on Sunday and the
Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes on Monday…

…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of Middle
Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes on Monday…

…Dangerous and record-breaking heat begins to build across the Central
Plains, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast…

A front extending from the Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes to
the Northern Plains will move to the Great Lakes/Middle Mississippi Valley
and trail off into the Northern High Plains by Monday. A wave of low
pressure over the Northern Plains will move northeastward into Ontario,
Canada, by Tuesday, bringing the cold front into the Great Lakes to the
Middle Mississippi Valley/Central Plains. The boundary will produce
showers and severe thunderstorms over the Northern Plains/Upper
Mississippi Valley on Sunday. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk
(level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northern
Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley through Monday morning. The hazards
associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Further, there is an
increased threat of severe thunderstorm wind gusts of 65 knots and hail
two inches or greater, mainly over parts of the Northern Plains.

Also, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Great Lakes
into parts of the Mid-Atlantic. Furthermore, upper-level energy and
tropical moisture will produce showers and thunderstorms from parts of the
Western Gulf Coast eastward to the Southeast. Additionally, moisture over
the Southwest and diurnal heating will produce late afternoon into late
evening showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Great Basin,
Southwest, and Central/Southern Rockies.

On Monday, a wave of low pressure along the front over the Upper Midwest
will pull the front back over parts of the Great Lakes, creating showers
and severe thunderstorms in some parts of the area. Therefore, the SPC has
issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes from Monday through
Tuesday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are
frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes.

Moreover, the showers and thunderstorms will produce heavy rain over parts
of the Middle Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes. Therefore, the WPC
has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of
the Middle Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes from Monday into
Tuesday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized
areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and
low-lying areas the most vulnerable.

Also, upper-level impulses will create showers and thunderstorms over
parts of the Lower Great Lakes into parts of the Mid-Atlantic.
Furthermore, upper-level energy and tropical moisture will produce showers
and thunderstorms from parts of the Southeast.

Meanwhile, an upper-level subtropical high over the Great Basin/Southwest
into the Central/Southern Rockies will weaken, allowing heat to expand
over portions of the central and eastern U.S. on Sunday into Tuesday.
Confidence is increasing in extremely dangerous, potentially deadly heat,
particularly for urban areas in the Southeast and East Coast beginning
Monday. Many daily record highs are possible for the East Coast, and
numerous warm overnight lows will provide little relief from the heat
overnight. Heat stress will build rapidly for those without adequate
cooling or hydration.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.