Sig Silber

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Feb 06 2025
Valid 12Z Thu Feb 06 2025 – 12Z Sat Feb 08 2025

…Winter storm to impact the Great Lakes, northern Mid-Atlantic and
Northeast with a combination of snow, sleet and freezing rain today…

…Next round of unsettled weather to enter the West today with the threat
of heavy rainfall/snows for California before snowfall chances spread
across the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains into Saturday…

…Record high temperatures are expected across much of the Southern U.S.
over the next few days…

A winter storm currently impacting much of the Great Lakes, upper Ohio
Valley and northern Mid-Atlantic with light snow and a wintry mix is
forecast to continue today while quickly pushing into the Northeast. The
primary winter weather hazards are expected to be associated with freezing
rain as warm air aloft combined with stubborn cold at the surface leads to
an icy morning for many. Precipitation is likely to be coming to an end
across the Ohio Valley by sunrise, with freezing rain lingering across the
Mid-Atlantic and central Appalachians this morning. Meanwhile, snow is
expected to continue across the Great Lakes and shift into much of the
Northeast early today. Total ice accretion of up to a half inch is
possible across parts of eastern WV, western MD, far northern VA, and into
parts of south-central PA. This may lead to scattered power outages and
tree damage. Elsewhere, up to a quarter inch of ice is possible just
northwest of the I-95 corridor from Washington D.C. to Philadelphia, as
well as much of PA, northern OH, northern IN, and southern MI. This amount
of ice is capable of making untreated roadways treacherous. The snowfall
aspect of this storm will feature light amounts (generally under a couple
inches) across the Great Lakes outside of lake-effect snow in the eastern
U.P. of Michigan, with 2 to 5 inches expected throughout much of New
England. Much of the winter weather is anticipated to quickly end by this
evening and be followed by breezy westerly winds as a deepening low
pressure system swings across southeast Canada. In fact, strong winds have
prompted Blizzard Warnings today across the Keweenaw Peninsula of MI and
neighboring counties.

The next storm system to enter the West Coast and eventually spread wintry
weather elsewhere throughout the Lower 48 is forecast to move onshore
later today. Initially, heavy coastal/lower elevation rain is expected
across CA with heavy snow likely into the Sierra Nevada, northern CA
ranges and southern OR. By Friday, the moderate to heavy snowfall located
just north of an associated area of low pressure shifts into the northern
Great Basin and northern Rockies. Total snowfall amounts over a foot are
expected across the higher terrain, with multiple feet of heavy snow
possible in the Sierra Nevada. By early this weekend the snowfall
potential enters the Northern Plains, where high probabilities (70-90%)
for at least 4 inches of snow stretches east-west from northern ND across
central MN, and into central WI. As the system continues to slide eastward
on Saturday night, wintry weather will quickly begin to impact much of the
Great Lakes, upper Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast. Freezing rain
is possible for southern areas similar to where the ongoing ice threat
exists today, with heavy snow (over 4 inches) most likely in the
Northeast. Be sure to check local forecasts for the latest updated
information.

While winter storm systems cross the middle and northern U.S., much of the
South is forecast to remain quite warm. In fact, some areas could see
record breaking warmth continue through this weekend as highs into the 70s
and 80s stretch from the Southwest to the Southern Plains and much of the
Southeast. Dozens of stations across 13 states between Arizona and North
Carolina are currently forecast to break or tie daily high temperature
records. Meanwhile, the coldest air over the next few days will be
confined to the northern High Plains as highs remain in the single digits
and lows dip well below zero.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed Feb 05 2025
Valid 12Z Wed Feb 05 2025 – 12Z Fri Feb 07 2025

…Unsettled weather to persist across the Western U.S. through the end of
the week including a new threat of heavy rainfall for California on
Thursday…

…Winter storm to impact the Midwest and Great Lakes region through the
Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast with a combination of snow, sleet
and freezing rain later today through Thursday…

…Record high temperatures are expected across much of the Southern U.S.
over the next few days…

A persistent deep layer low center and associated trough axis will
continue to provide a general fetch of deeper layer onshore flow and
precipitation for the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies going
through today and tonight. This will include additional accumulating
snowfall across the higher terrain with portions of the Cascades along
with the Sawtooth, Bitterroots and Tetons likely to see an additional 6 to
12+ inches of snow. Meanwhile, a new storm system offshore of the West
Coast will approach California on Thursday and bring a new atmospheric
river surge into the coastal ranges as well as the Central Valley and
Sierra Nevada going through Thursday night and Friday morning. Heavy
rainfall is expected with some potential for additional localized flooding
concerns. Over the higher terrain of the Sierra Nevada, heavy snowfall is
expected with as much as 1 to 3 feet of snow expected with this next
system as it moves inland. This new surge of Pacific moisture will also
lead to a new round of very heavy snowfall for the northern Rockies with
an additional 1 to 2+ feet of accumulating snow possible through Friday.
Some of this will also begin to eject east out into the northern Plains to
end the week.

Meanwhile, farther east from the Midwest through the Great Lakes region
and into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, there will be arrival of a new
winter storm later today through Thursday which will bring a rather
widespread swath of locally heavy snow, sleet and freezing rain. The
heaviest snowfall with several inches of accumulation expected should
focus across the Upper Midwest and the U.P. of Michigan along with some
interior portions of the Northeast involving New York and the central and
northern parts of New England. South of here across the Ohio Valley and
the Mid-Atlantic region, the cold air that the precipitation will be
encountering with be notably more shallow, and this will be conducive for
sleet and freezing rain. Locally significant ice accumulations will be
possible with a 0.25″+ of ice accumulation, and this will lead to
hazardous travel conditions. Scattered power outages and tree damage will
be possible from the weight of the ice.

Cold air will be generally well entrenched for the remainder of the week
across the northern Plains and the Pacific Northwest which will maintain
below normal high temperatures. Some of the coldest air will continue to
be over Montana where highs will struggle to get above zero. Over the
southern U.S., and to the south of a strong frontal zone, very warm
temperatures will be pooled in a general west to east fashion spanning the
Four Corners region eastward across the southern Plains and most of the
Gulf Coast states. High temperatures will locally reach well into the 80s,
and these temperatures will be as much as 20 to 30+ degrees above normal.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Feb 03 2025
Valid 12Z Mon Feb 03 2025 – 12Z Wed Feb 05 2025

…Unsettled weather to persist across the Northwest U.S. into early next
week with much colder temperatures and heavy snowfall across the Cascades,
northern Great Basin, northern Rockies and northern High Plains…

…Strong atmospheric river will continue over the next couple of days
across northern and central California with heavy rains and areas of
flooding likely…

…Storm system crossing the Great Lakes region to bring accumulating
snowfall to parts of the Northeast…

…Record high temperatures are expected across portions of the Southwest
out through the Southern Plains through the middle of the week…

A persistent trough of low pressure and associated closed low will
continue to impact the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies going
through the first half of the week ahead with widespread unsettled weather
expected. Moist onshore flow into the higher terrain coupled with colder
temperatures filtering south from southwest Canada will drive heavy
accumulating snowfall across the Cascades and especially interior mountain
ranges such as the Sawtooth, Bitterroots, Tetons and Absaroka Range. In
fact, the strong atmospheric river that is bringing very heavy rainfall to
areas of northern California is being steered up the larger scale pattern
northeastward up across areas of southern and eastern Oregon, and into the
southwest facing slopes of the northern Rockies where there is plenty of
cold air in place for very heavy snowfall accumulations and including even
some lower elevation locations. For the Cascades, generally an additional
6 to 12 inches of snow is expected through early Wednesday, but
considerably heavier amounts are expected for the Shasta/Siskiyou Ranges
northeastward into the aforementioned terrain of the northern Rockies
where an additional 1 to 3+ feet can be expected. The deep layer fetch of
Pacific moisture is also overrunning Arctic air that is well entrenched
over the northern High Plains, and this coupled with upslope flow here
just east of the Continental Divide will allow for heavy snowfall to
accumulate here as well.

The strong atmospheric river bringing the heavy flooding rain concerns
over northern California should persist through the first part of the week
as a stationary front remains anchored in place. Multiple waves of low
pressure will traverse this boundary, and this coupled with the Pacific
moisture transport and upslope flow/forcing over the higher terrain of the
coastal ranges and northern Sierra Nevada foothills should yield as much
as an additional 5 to 10 inches of rain. The Weather Prediction Center has
depicted a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) of excessive rainfall across
northern California going through early Tuesday. By later Tuesday and
Wednesday, the front will be finally settling southward, but this will
bring heavy rainfall down into central California including the Bay Area
and portions of the Central Valley. Several inches of new rain can be
expected here, and a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall has been depicted
going into early Wednesday.

Farther off to the east, a combination of Pacific moisture arriving from
the Western U.S. along with a frontal system traversing the Great Lakes
region will bring a swath of accumulating snow for today across areas of
Wisconsin and Michigan eastward into northern New York and northern New
England. Locally several inches of new snow accumulation is expected. This
system will pull away through southeast Canada tonight with a trailing
cold front then crossing the region and bringing a new surge of much
colder temperatures.

Arctic high pressure will be settling south from Canada across much of the
northern tier of the nation early this week with temperatures falling
locally well below normal. This will especially be the case over the
northern High Plains where temperatures will be as much as 15 to 30
degrees below normal, with daytime highs locally staying below zero.
However, south of the Arctic front going through the middle of the week,
very warm temperatures will be pooled across much of the southern tier of
the country. This will include temperatures reaching well into the 80s
across the interior of the Southwest and also across the southern Plains.
Record high temperatures are expected with some locations seeing high
temperatures as much as 20 to 30 degrees above normal.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Feb 02 2025
Valid 12Z Sun Feb 02 2025 – 12Z Tue Feb 04 2025

…Unsettled weather to persist across the Northwest U.S. into early next
week with much colder temperatures and heavy snowfall across the Cascades
and the Northern Rockies…

…Strong atmospheric river to bring heavy rains and flooding concerns to
northern California…

…Storm system crossing the Great Lakes region to bring accumulating
snowfall to the Northeast…

…Record high temperatures are expected across portions of the Southwest
out through the Southern Plains on Monday…

A trough of low pressure will be impacting the Pacific Northwest and the
northern Rockies for the remainder of the weekend and into early next
week. Moist onshore flow into the higher terrain coupled with colder
temperatures settling south from southwest Canada will set the stage for
very heavy accumulating snowfall across the Cascades and especially
interior mountain ranges such as the Sawtooth and the Tetons of the
northern Rockies. Generally 1 to 2 feet of new snowfall is expected for
the Cascades, but as much as 2 to 4 feet is expected over the northern
Rockies where the moist upslope flow and colder temperatures will maximize
the snowfall potential.

Some of this very heavy snow over the Northwest will also be influenced by
a strong atmospheric river impacting northern California which is forecast
to bring very heavy rainfall totals into the coastal ranges and the
interior foothills and upslope areas of the northern Sierra Nevada. Going
through Monday, an additional 4 to 8 inches of rain can be expected
locally, with isolated heavier totals. Flooding will become a notable
concern across these areas, and the Weather Prediction Center has issued a
Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) of excessive rainfall. This will include a
threat for some burn scar flash flooding locally with debris flow and
mudslide activity also possible.

Farther off to the east, a storm system currently crossing the Midwest
will advance through the Great Lakes region tonight and will allow for
accumulating snowfall to overspread portions of northern Pennsylvania and
New York along with adjacent areas of New England. Locally as much as 2 to
4+ inches of snow is expected with this system and there will also likely
be some freezing rain/icing concerns for areas of central and western
Pennsylvania. This system will pull away through southeast Canada on
Monday, and gradually a cold front will cross the Great Lakes and
Northeast in its wake with much colder temperatures arriving behind it.

Arctic high pressure will be settling south from Canada across much of the
northern tier of the nation by Monday which will allow for temperatures to
trend locally well below normal. This will especially be the case over the
northern High Plains where temperatures will be as much as 15 to 25
degrees below normal, with daytime highs locally staying below zero.
However, south of the Arctic front, very warm temperatures will be pooled
across much of the southern tier of the country. This will include
temperatures reaching well into the 80s across the interior of the
Southwest and also across the southern Plains. Record high temperatures
are expected for some locations as a result, and for some areas the high
temperatures will be as much as 20 to 30 degrees above normal.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Feb 01 2025
Valid 12Z Sat Feb 01 2025 – 12Z Mon Feb 03 2025

…Unsettled weather to bring lower elevation rains and heavy mountain
snowfall across the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies going
through the weekend…

…Strong atmospheric river to bring heavy rains and flooding concerns to
areas of central and northern California…

…New storm system ejecting out across the northern Plains will bring
accumulating snowfall to portions of the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes and
Northeast…

A switch to a very unsettled weather pattern is underway across the
Northwest and much of the West Coast as a more zonal flow pattern unfolds.
This will bring moist onshore Pacific flow with lower elevation rains and
increasingly heavy mountain snowfall for the Cascades and also the
northern Rockies. Going through Sunday, as much as 1 to 3 feet of new
snowfall is expected over the high terrain, and snow levels will actually
be falling with time as colder air also settles south from southwest
Canada. This allow temperatures to drop below normal with high
temperatures as much as 5 to 10+ degrees below average by the end of the
weekend.

As unsettled weather impacts the Northwest, strong deep layer Pacific flow
along with a quasi-stationary front will become situated over central and
northern California and this will set the stage for a persistent and
strong atmospheric river to impact the region. Heavy to excessive rainfall
is expected for the coastal ranges, including areas around the Bay Area,
and especially areas farther inland into the foothills and higher terrain
of the northern Sierra Nevada. Multi-day rainfall totals through Sunday
for the coastal ranges may reach see as much as 3 to 6 inches. However,
for the upslope areas of the Sierra Nevada, as much as 6 to 12 inches of
rain is forecast, and with high snow levels, there will be strong concerns
for flooding. This will include a threat for burn scar flash
flooding/debris flow activity locally. Heavy rains will be impacting the
Sacramento Valley and some flooding will be possible here as well. The
Weather Prediction Center has depicted a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall
across the region (level 2 of 4) to address the multi-day flooding
concerns associated with this impending atmospheric river activity.

Meanwhile, a new storm system related to the unsettled weather unfolding
across the West will begin to eject east out across the northern Plains
later Saturday through Saturday night this will bring a threat for several
inches of accumulating snow to the Upper Midwest. This system will then
begin to lift up into southeast Canada going through Sunday, but will
bring a threat for snowfall also across portions of the Great Lakes region
and the Northeast where there will be sufficient cold air in place. In the
wake of this system, much colder air will be settling southward across the
northern Plains which will allow temperatures to begin returning back to
below normal.

Elsewhere, very mild temperatures with above average highs can be expected
across much of the rest of the Plains region and the South. In some cases
across the Plains and Midwest, the temperatures this weekend will be as
much as 15 to 20 degrees above normal. Many areas of the Southeast and the
Southwest will also be warmer than normal with highs as much as average 5
to 10+ degrees above average.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Jan 31 2025
Valid 12Z Fri Jan 31 2025 – 12Z Sun Feb 02 2025

…Precipitation returns to the West Coast, with atmospheric river
activity expected to bring heavy rain and flooding concerns to portions of
central and northern California…

…Much needed rainfall expected across the Upper Tennessee Valley,
Southern Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic, with light wintry precipitation
expected for New England…

…Above average temperatures are expected across large sections of the
country going into the weekend with exception to the Northwest and the
Northeast where temperatures will be trending gradually below normal…

After several weeks of no precipitation along large portions of the West
Coast, a considerably more active West Coast weather pattern will unfold
over the next few days which will include the arrival of multiple Pacific
frontal systems. This will include the arrival again of well-defined
atmospheric river activity also into especially central and northern
California. Much of the rain and higher elevation snowfall will be
welcomed across the Pacific Northwest, but for California, the concern
especially by Saturday and Sunday will be heavy to excessive rainfall that
will lead to flooding concerns. This will include the Bay Area and
interior areas of the Sacramento Valley and also the foothills of the
Sierra Nevada. A Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) of excessive rainfall has been
depicted by the Weather Prediction Center across these areas, and while
there will be certainly benefits to the rainfall, the expectation is that
a front will stall out across central California and foster a persistence
of atmospheric river conditions and heavy rains that will drive flooding
concerns. Temperatures across the West will initially be above normal for
many locations, but the passage of the frontal activity over the Pacific
Northwest should allow temperatures here to trend gradually below normal,
and this will also allow for lowering snow levels in time.

Meanwhile, a storm system crossing through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys
will be advancing across the central and southern Appalachians and the
Mid-Atlantic states today through tonight which will bring moderate to
locally heavy rainfall. Generally these rains will be quite beneficial,
but there may be sufficient rainfall in conjunction with snowmelt over the
higher terrain of the central Appalachians to bring a threat of flooding.
A Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) of excessive rainfall has been depicted
across the higher terrain of West Virginia. A portion of this storm system
will also bring heavy to potentially excessive rainfall today across areas
of northern Illinois. However, the northern edge of the precipitation
shield as it lifts off to the northeast into parts of New York and New
England will encounter a sufficient amount of cold air for some light
snowfall and also locally some concerns for sleet and freezing rain. This
storm system will exit the region by early this weekend, with colder
temperatures arriving in its wake and especially across the Northeast.

By Sunday, a new storm system related to the unsettled weather impacting
the West Coast will begin to eject east out across the northern Plains,
and this will bring a threat for several inches of accumulating snow to
the Upper Midwest. Colder temperatures will begin to settle south from
Canada in the wake of this system across the northern High Plains.
However, above average temperatures though are expected in general across
much of the country outside of the Northwest and the Northeast, and in
some cases across the Plains and Midwest, the temperatures this weekend
will be as much as 15 to 20 degrees above normal. Many areas of the
Southeast and the Southwest will also be warmer than normal with highs as
much as average 5 to 10+ degrees above average.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
210 AM EST Thu Jan 30 2025
Valid 12Z Thu Jan 30 2025 – 12Z Sat Feb 01 2025

…Heavy rain, severe weather, and flash flooding possible from the
southern Plains to the Mid/Lower Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys
today…

…Widespread precipitation, including heavy mountain snow, to return to
the Northwest, northern California, and the northern Rockies…

A low pressure system will move across the south-Central U.S. today then
track towards the East and Northeast on Friday. Southerly winds will bring
warm moist air up from the Gulf, fueling widespread showers and
thunderstorms across the southern Plains and Mississippi Valley.
Conditions will be favorable for some strong to severe thunderstorms from
East Texas through the Lower Mississippi Valley today, and potential
severe storm hazards could include damaging winds, hail, and perhaps a
tornado or two. In addition to the severe weather threat, heavy rainfall
will have to potential to cause isolated to scattered instances of flash
flooding from East Texas through the Mississippi Valley to the Lower Ohio
Valley today. While thunderstorms impact the south-Central U.S., cold air
on the backside of the low pressure system will support wintry weather
across New Mexico and Colorado, with heavy snow potential in the higher
terrain.

The low pressure system will move towards the East and Northeast on Friday
while weakening, and precipitation chances will increase for most areas
east of the Mississippi River. The severe threat will shift east on Friday
as well, moving into the central/eastern Gulf Coast region where a few
strong storms will be possible. Late Friday, moisture from the system
should spread into the Northeast where it will interact with a cold front
sagging south into the region, producing wintry weather across the eastern
Great Lakes and Northeast. Accumulating snowfall is expected to be
limited, with only minor accumulations across New England. The system will
exit off the East Coast by Saturday morning, and dry conditions will
return.

For the West, dry weather will persist until a frontal system approaches
the West Coast late today. This system will push into the Northwest on
Friday, then another front will follow close on its heels late Friday into
Saturday. Widespread precipitation is expected across the Northwest,
northern California, and the northern Rockies. Heavy rain along the coast
will result in heightened flooding concerns, especially in and around
steep terrain. Inland, heavy snow is expected in the Olympics, Cascades,
northern Rockies, and potentially into portions of the Sierra Nevada.

Temperatures will be well above average for most of the Central and
Eastern U.S. through the end of the week, with the exception of the
Northeast where cold air will settle in behind a cold front. The warmest
anomalies are forecast to be in the Upper Midwest where high temperatures
in the upper 40s and lower 50s may rival a handful of daily temperature
records today. Elsewhere, temperatures will be near normal for much of the
West, but below average temperatures will linger in the Southwest today
and may develop along the West Coast from Washington to northern
California Friday and Saturday.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed Jan 29 2025
Valid 12Z Wed Jan 29 2025 – 12Z Fri Jan 31 2025

…Heavy rain, severe weather, and flash flooding possible from the
Southern Plains to to the Mid/Lower Mississippi Valley…

…Heavy snow and snow squalls possible in the Great Lakes and Northeast
today…

…Atmospheric river to bring heavy rain and mountain snow to the Pacific
Northwest and northern California late this week into the weekend…

A strong but slow moving low pressure system will push across the
southern/central Plains and into the Mississippi Valley on Thursday. Warm,
moist air from the Gulf will stream into the south-Central U.S. ahead of
the system and provide support for widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Heavy rainfall in expected over the southern Plains today and from eastern
Texas through the Mid/Lower Mississippi Valley on Thursday. Isolated to
scattered instances of flash flooding will be possible, especially in
urban and poor drainage areas and areas that experience training/repeat
convection. Conditions will also be favorable for isolated strong to
severe thunderstorms from Central Texas east through the Lower Mississippi
Valley today and Thursday. On the backside of the low pressure system,
colder air will allow for wintry weather over portions of the Four Corners
states, and locally heavy snow will be possible in the higher terrain of
northern New Mexico and southern Colorado. This low pressure system will
track northeast into the Midwest on Friday, and precipitation chances will
spread towards the East Coast and Northeast.

To the north, a couple of lows will swing across southern Canada and clip
the northern Great Lakes and Northeast, producing chances for wintry
weather. The first low will pass over the Northeast today, pushing a
potent cold front south across the Great Lakes and Northeast. Snow squalls
will be possible today for portions of the eastern Great Lakes, Northeast,
and even into the northern Mid-Atlantic as the front drops south. Snow
squalls may cause intense bursts of heavy snow with gusty winds, resulting
in periods of low visibility and dangerous driving conditions.
Accumulating snow is expected from the eastern Great Lakes through
interior New England, with the heaviest snow likely downwind of Lakes
Ontario and Erie and in the mountains of New Hampshire and Vermont. These
regions can expect a brief break from wintry weather on Thursday as a warm
front lifts north, then more wintry weather will be possible on Friday as
the second low moves across the Great Lakes.

Mainly dry weather is expected in the West with high pressure dominating
the weather pattern through Thursday. On Friday, high pressure will be
shunted east as a low pressure system approaches the West Coast. This
system will aim a stream of Pacific moisture (atmospheric river) at the
coast, focusing initially on the Pacific Northwest on Friday then shifting
south into northern California on Saturday. Widespread heavy rain and
mountain snow are expected, and flooding concerns will be heightened along
the coast.

The weather pattern will favor well above normal temperatures through the
end of the work week for much of the Central and Eastern U.S., except for
the Northeast where below normal temperatures are expected through
Thursday after a cold front passes through. High temperatures are expected
to be 10 to 20+ degrees above normal, with the greatest anomalies over the
northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest where a handful of daily high
temperature records will be possible on Thursday. Below normal
temperatures will likely linger from southern California through the
Southwest through Thursday, then return to near normal on Friday.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Jan 28 2025
Valid 12Z Tue Jan 28 2025 – 12Z Thu Jan 30 2025

…Locally heavy snow and snow squalls possible for the Great Lakes and
Northeast through Wednesday…

…Flooding rain and severe thunderstorms possible from the southern
Plains to the Mid/Lower Mississippi Valley Wednesday into Thursday…

…Well above average temperatures expected across much of the Central and
Eastern U.S., while below average temperatures linger in southern
California and the Southwest…

A slow moving low pressure system will gradually push east across the
Southwest and into the southern Plains over the next few days. This system
will produce some wintry weather in the Four Corners states, but a lack of
moisture may limit precipitation amounts. The heaviest snow is expected
late tonight through Thursday in the higher elevations in northern New
Mexico and southern Colorado where more than 6 inches of snow could fall.
As the system emerges in the Plains Wednesday into Thursday, it will
trigger widespread showers and thunderstorms from the southern Plains to
the Mid/Lower Mississippi Valley. There will be a risk of severe
thunderstorms in Texas, and potential storm hazards could include hail and
damaging wind gusts. Isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding
will also be possible from Central/North Texas to the Mid-Mississippi
Valley, especially in urban and poor drainage areas and places with
training/repeat convection.

While the slow low impacts the south-Central U.S., a swift moving Clipper
type low pressure system will swing across the Great Lakes and Northeast,
bringing wintry weather to these regions. A leading cold front will sink
south across the Northeast today, then the main low will dip into the
northern Great Lakes tonight, swing across the northeast on Wednesday, and
push offshore Wednesday night. Snow squalls will be possible as these
features move across the Great Lakes and Northeast, which would create
intense bursts of heavy snowfall with gusty winds, resulting in low
visibility and dangerous driving conditions. Moderate to locally heavy
snow accumulations are expected from the Great Lakes into New England
today through Wednesday.

Temperatures will be below average across southern California and the
Southwest under the influence of the upper low, and below average
temperature are also expected across portions of the Great Lakes and
Northeast after a cold front sinks south into these regions today.
Sandwiched between the Southwest and Northeast corners of the nation, much
of the Central and Eastern U.S. will experience well above average
temperatures through Thursday. The highest anomalies will be in the
north-Central U.S. where highs are forecast to be 15-25 degrees above
normal, which could challenge a few daily high temperature records in the
northern Plains and Upper Midwest.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Jan 27 2025
Valid 12Z Mon Jan 27 2025 – 12Z Wed Jan 29 2025

…Heavy rain and localized flash flood risk continues for portions of
southern California today…

…Elevated fire weather concerns for portions of Arizona and New Mexico
today…

…Heavy rain possible across the southern Plains on Wednesday…

A slow-moving closed upper low will linger over the southwestern U.S.
through mid-week while a low pressure system strengthens at the surface.
This low pressure system will bring chances for rain and mountain snow to
the Southwest today and Tuesday, then the system will push into the
southern Plains on Wednesday. Given the increased sensitivity from recent
wildfires in southern California, moderate to locally heavy rain could
lead to debris flows and flash flooding in burn scar areas today. To the
east, gusty winds and dry conditions will lead to elevated fire weather
concerns for portions of Arizona and New Mexico today, but precipitation
is expected to reduce fire weather concerns Tuesday into Wednesday.

As the low pressure system emerges in the southern Plains on Wednesday, it
will interact with warm moist air in place over the south-Central U.S.
resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall
may result in isolated instances of flash flooding in Central/North Texas
and southern Oklahoma, mainly in urban and poor drainage areas.

Showers and thunderstorms will also be possible in the Southeast as a
frontal boundary pushes across the region. The front should push offshore
on Tuesday and high pressure will move over the Southeast in it’s wake. To
the north, rounds of snow are expected across the Great Lakes and
Northeast through Wednesday. Initially, a cold front sinking south into
the area will bring snow today, then a clipper type low pressure system
will quickly swing across the Great Lakes Tuesday into Wednesday,
triggering another round of snow. Snow totals will likely be highest
downwind of the Great Lakes where lake effect enhancement is expected.

Elsewhere, dry conditions are expected for much of the Northwest and
north-Central U.S. under the influence of high pressure.

Temperatures are expected to be below normal through Wednesday across the
Southwest under the closed upper low, and below normal temperatures will
likely develop across the Northeast after a cold front drops south across
the region today. The weather pattern will favor above normal temperatures
in the north-Central U.S. today, and above normal temperatures will expand
to the South and East by Wednesday.