NOAA Updates their Four-Season Outlook on March 17, 2022

March 18, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Introduction

Today is the third Thursday of the month so right on schedule NOAA has issued their Seasonal Outlook. In this article, I summarize it and provide links that will take the reader to additional maps and discussions that I have not included, but I have included quite a bit in this article. I want to remind everyone that last Thursday NOAA issued their ENSO outlook and that has a lot of influence on their Seasonal Outlook.  The Seasonal Outlook generally reflects La Nina conditions initially with no clear indication of when this La Nina will end. There could be triple dip La Nina but that is not the most likely scenario but can not be discounted. Over the next three months, the Southern Tier drought intensifies but there is relief extending to the east. There is fairly good news with respect to the North American Monsoon (NAM).

Assessing the U.S. Climate in February, 2022

March 16, 2022Posted inClimate, weatherNo Comments

Updated at 0:15 AM EDT March 17, 2022 to include information on worldwide precipitation and the corresponding discussion.

Recently I published a podcast about February climate prepared by two meteorologists who work at CLIMAS. It focuses on why February was the way it was for the U.S. Southwest and West Coast.

This is the official NCEI assessment of the U.S. Climate in February, 2022. it describes what it was not why it was. Sometimes I use an email that a PR person sends out on that report. This time I am working with the report itself. Plus there was some supplementary information provided and I am including some of that as well. The report is pretty complete so I only added a few comments to it. The main comment is that the last decade has been the warmest ever in modern times but that can be confusing if you say that this is the fifth warmest year ever (just an example). That could mean it is average for the last ten years. Although this article is mostly about CONUS plus Alaska, I have included the World temperature record for the last 128 Februaries.

Mar 2022 Southwest Climate Podcast – Cold(ish), Windy, and Dry – Winter Recap & Looking Ahead

March 14, 2022Posted inClimate, weatherNo Comments

In the March 2022 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido “dive into a recap of winter (so far) in the Southwest. First, recap winter to date, and put it in the context of a double-dip La Niña, including precipitation totals, temperature, and snowpack. Then they take a closer look at the phases of the PNA (Pacific/North American pattern) and how this links to ENSO/La Niña and the weather conditions this winter. Finally, they revisit temperature to consider just how “cold” it has actually been, and preview a closer look at fire outlooks, snowpack, and water supply in upcoming podcasts”.

ENSO Update March 10, 2022: La Nina Remains and if Anything is Stronger

March 12, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

On the second Thursday of every month, NOAA issues its analysis of the status of ENSO. This includes determining the Alert System Status. Although the current status remains the same i.e.  La Nina Advisory, the forecast has been adjusted somewhat from last month. The forecast calls for the La Nina to continue to fade perhaps but right now it is stronger.  The timing is shown in the NOAA discussion and the IRI probability analysis. Of importance, the chances of a Triple Dip La Nina are not ruled out. That could be a real disaster for the Southwest and the West Coast.

The impact of the NOAA forecast for the transition from La Nina to ENSO Neutral will show up next Thursday when NOAA issues its Seasonal Outlook. The NOAA ENSO Status Update provides an advance indication of how the forecast might change. There is a lag between the ENSO state and the impact on U.S. weather.  Thus the exact date when a fading La Nina meets the criteria for ENSO Neutral may not be very important in terms of the actual impact on Spring and Summer weather including the North American Monsoon (NAM).  But the possibility of a Triple Dip should be of considerable concern. We will learn what NOAA thinks next Thursday.

NOAA Updates March 2022 Outlook

March 1, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

At the end of every month, NOAA updates their Early Outlook for the following month which in this case is March. They also issue a drought outlook for the following month. We are reporting on that tonight. The updated Outlook is not very different from the Early Outlook which NOAA now calls the Mid-Month Outlook. It is a bit less warm than the Mid-Month Outlook, slightly wetter, and there seems to be a lower level of confidence in the probabilities associated with the various anomalies in the Outlook. There is a lot of variation throughout the month and this is described in the NOAA discussion and we provide partial-month outlooks for the first 25 days of March.  We also provide enough information for readers to understand any changes from the Mid-Month Outlook and we try to figure out why these changes were made.

NOAA Updates their Four-Season Outlook on February 17, 2022

February 18, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Introduction

Today is the third Thursday of the month so right on schedule NOAA has issued their Seasonal Outlook which extends slightly more than a year so I call it a four-season outlook. It also includes what NOAA calls their Early Outlook for the following month which is March and a drought Outlook for the next three months. The maps show where temperature and precipitation will deviate from normal as the existing La Nina weakens and the weather pattern reverts to normal as adjusted to take into account what NOAA calls decadal trends. I include the full NOAA Discussion which supports their predictions. There is no guarantee that the future will unfold exactly as projected by NOAA but having this information which represents both a near-term and fairly long-term Outlook can be very useful.

Assessing the U.S. Climate in January 2022

February 14, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Every month NOAA issues a report assessing the U.S. Climate for that month and I receive an email that summarizes that report. The email generally does a very good job of presenting the information in the monthly report so I thought that I would provide the information that was in that email.  However, I have replaced two of the graphics with different NOAA graphics.

These are pretty much the same information but for temperature and precipitation rather than showing the map of the temperature and precipitation anomalies, I am showing the state rankings of their temperature and precipitation relative to the most recent 128 years of data. There are many ways to display data and I just happen to like the state ranking approach. On an overall basis, it was cool compared to recent years and dry not only compared to recent years but to the entire period of record.  There was a lot of variation throughout the U.S.

NOAA Updates the Status of ENSO February 10, 2022

February 11, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

On the second Thursday of every month, NOAA issues its analysis of the status of ENSO. This includes determining the Alert System Status. Although the current status remains the same i.e.  La Nina Advisory, the forecast has been adjusted somewhat from last month. The forecast calls for the La Nina to continue to fade.  The timing is shown in the NOAA discussion and the IRI probability analysis. The Australian Meteorological Service thinks this will happen sooner and I agree. I present some information that suggests that NOAA has the timing wrong and that the transition to ENSO Neutral will occur fairly soon.

The impact of the NOAA forecast for the transition from La Nina to ENSO Neutral will show up next Thursday when NOAA issues its Seasonal Outlook. The NOAA ENSO Status Update provides an advance indication of how the forecast might change. To repeat, I expect the demise of La Nina to occur somewhat sooner than predicted by NOAA.  It is not a significant difference. There is a lag between the ENSO state and the impact on U.S. weather.  Thus the exact date when a fading La Nina meets the criteria for ENSO Neutral may not be very important in terms of the actual impact on Spring and Summer weather including the North American Monsoon (NAM). We will learn what NOAA thinks next Thursday.

NOAA Updates Their February 2022 Outlook

February 1, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

At the end of every month, NOAA updates their Early Outlook for the following month which in this case is February. They also issue a drought outlook for the following month. We are reporting on that tonight as well as some interesting information on the change in Western streamflow median levels in the new climatology versus the prior climatology. This tells us how the past three decades have changed from the prior three decades. It is in line with what should be expected and is very interesting. It suggests that on average the West is drying out but I think I also see a secondary trend where it may be getting drier to the south and wetter to the north.

JAMSTEC Seasonal Outlook for Spring and Summer of 2022

January 27, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

I should have reported this a couple of weeks ago after NOAA issued their Seasonal Outlook.  JAMSTEC is a well respected Japanese Research Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology. They have a proprietary forecast model and every month they normally issue a three-season forecast. This month they only looked out two seasons.  I think it is useful to look at more than one forecast as it provides to some extent an assessment of the variability one might expect in the observed weather compared to the forecasts. This is usually due to slight differences in the strength and timing of the ENSO Cycle. As discussed in this article, both NOAA and JAMSTEC may be working with assumptions about the ENSO cycle that may turn out to be incorrect. So this may limit our ability to forecast even as far out as this summer.