August 27, 2022 Looking Ahead 28 Days

August 27, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Southern Tier to be very wet and the Northwest warm. But there is a high level of uncertainty relative to the week 3 – 4 Outlook.

NOAA updates many of their weather outlooks and in many cases issues a discussion with those outlooks. On Fridays, they issue a week 3 – 4 outlook which is farther out than the typical 10-day forecast and the discussion is excellent. So we have decided to issue a weekly special report on Fridays which for most people will be read on Saturday as it gets published late Friday night.

When the Week 3-4 Outlook is issued, we have a 28-day view of the future. It is important to recognize that the forecasts do not always work out as predicted. But in the article, there are links to obtain updated forecasts.

August 27, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical

August 27, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to tonight and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Lower
Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coast through Saturday morning...

...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Northeast through Saturday morning...

...Increasing fire weather risk over parts of the Great Basin, Northern
Intermountain Region, and Northern Rockies...

August 26, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical

August 26, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to tonight and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

..There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Lower
Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coast/Western Gulf Coast and the Northern
Rockies/Northern High Plains through Friday morning...

...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Northeast from Friday into Saturday morning...

...Low temperatures will be near or tie high minimum overnight
temperatures over parts of the Northwest...

August 25, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical

August 25, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to tonight and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Lower
Mississippi Valley/Tennessee Valley/Western Gulf Coast through Thursday
morning...

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Southwest and Northern Rockies through Thursday morning...

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Northern
Rockies and Lower Mississippi Valley/Tennessee Valley/Central Gulf Coast
from Thursday into Friday morning...

August 24, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical

August 24, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to today and the next 48 hours from this morning’s NWS Forecast.

...Heavy Rain and Flash Flooding threats over the lower Mississippi Valley
may shift farther east into Alabama...

...Above average temperatures to continue from the inland valleys of
California into the Great Basin and Pacific Northwest, while below average
temperatures expected across the South from the Southern Plains into the
Southeast...

JAMSTEC Issues their Three-Season World Forecast based on August 1 ENSO Conditions.

August 23, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Usually, I compare the JAMSTEC forecast with the NOAA forecast after NOAA Issues its Seasonal Outlook. But this month, JAMSTEC was very early so I thought I would share it with everyone early. But I did not get around to doing it until now. NOAA calls their predictions an outlook but JAMSTEC calls their predictions a forecast. I am going to show the JAMSTEC forecasts by month and by season and some of the indices they use in their model. They make world forecasts and for any readers who do not realize it, the U.S. is part of the world so it is covered by a world forecast.

I like the JAMSTEC forecast because the U.S. is part of the world and our weather is not independent of the worldwide weather pattern. In fact, most of U.S. weather originates in the Pacific Ocean and the Pacific Ocean is where Japan is located. In fact, Japan and the US jointly manage the monitoring system along the Equator that helps predict the phases of ENSO. So one of the reasons I include worldwide forecasts in articles is to encourage the understanding of worldwide weather patterns. It is not that the U.S. does not cooperate with other nations with respect to weather forecasts as it does. But to view weather forecasts on the Internet or TV you would not easily notice that. The U.S. media pays hardly any attention to what other meteorological agencies predict.

August 23, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical

August 23, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

...Heavy Rain and Flash Flooding threats expected across areas of east
Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley over the next two days...

...Above average temperatures to continue from the inland valleys of
California into the Great Basin and Pacific Northwest, while below average
temperatures expected across the South from the Southern Plains into the
Southeast...

August 22, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical

August 22, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

...Heavy rainfall event unfolding across the southern Plains to the lower
Mississippi Valley over the next few days...

...Rounds of strong thunderstorms expected to continue moving across the
Ohio Valley and the Appalachians this evening...

...Heat in the Northwest will spread east into the northern Plains as
unsettled weather moves into the East Coast...

August 21, 2022 Looking Ahead 28 Days Plus a Review of State Temperature and Precipitation Rankings

August 21, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 6 pm EDT August 23, 2022. It was not possible to update the Week 3-4 Outlooks as they only update on Fridays

Southern Tier to be very wet for the next two weeks.

NOAA updates many of their weather outlooks and in many cases issues a discussion with those outlooks. On Fridays, they issue a week 3 – 4 outlook which is farther out than the typical 10-day forecast and the discussion is excellent. So we have decided to issue a weekly special report on Fridays.

When the Week 3-4 Outlook is issued, we have a 28-day view of the future. It is important to recognize that the forecasts do not always work out as predicted. But in the article, there are links to obtain updated forecasts. Since we are often publishing this article on Sunday, we then only have a 26-day view of the future. Sorry about that. It is really a 27-day view but Sunday readers are seeing it one day late. But 26 days is still a pretty long forecast. The update I just made did not update the week – 4 Outlook but it updated all the Outlooks for the next 14 days. There will be a new article soon with the updated Week 3 – 4 Outlook, but I might update it in this article also. The links are provided for all the graphics so the reader can get the updated version but this article is now up to date except for the Week3 – 4 Outlook which can not be updated until Friday.

We have also taken a look at the state temperature and precipitation rankings for Sept to November LAST YEAR and Year to Date (YTD) This year. Some may view that as apples and oranges but it will give us something to compare against as the next three months evolve. So we can come back in early December to see how the two years compare.  My guess is that it will be pretty similar but it may be interesting to some people.

August 21, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical

August 21, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

...Heavy Rainfall event to unfold across the Southern Plains and Lower
Mississippi Valley over the next several days...

...Potential Tropical Cyclone Four is forecast to reach southern Texas as
a Tropical Depression on Sunday...

...Above average temperatures in the Northwest and Northeast...

...Scattered to severe thunderstorms possible across the Midwest/Ohio
Valley through Sunday...