Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted November 21, 2024

November 21, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Nov 21 2024
Valid 12Z Thu Nov 21 2024 – 12Z Sat Nov 23 2024

…Strong atmospheric river continues to impact northern California with
heavy rain and life-threatening flooding through Friday…

…Developing storm system forecast to bring another round of gusty winds
to the Pacific Northwest on Friday with heavy mountain snow spreading
toward the northern Rockies this weekend...

…Unsettled weather expected across much of the Northeast and Great Lakes
over the next few days, including the likelihood of heavy snow in the
central Appalachians and higher elevations of northeastern Pennsylvania
and southern New York…

Impactful and for some place dangerous weather conditions will continue
through early this weekend as two separate storm systems impact the Lower
48. Starting in the West, a strong atmospheric river currently impacting
northern California is forecast to remain relatively stationary over the
next few days and produce an additional 6-12 inches of rainfall over
regions with already saturated terrain. The atmospheric river is expected
to peak in intensity today, but with moderate bouts of rain lingering
through much of Friday and snow levels finally lowering somewhat on
Saturday. In the meantime, dangerous flooding, rock slides, and debris
flows are likely, which has prompted a High Risk (level 4/4) of Excessive
Rainfall to be issued across the northern California coastline today. Be
sure to check conditions before traveling and never drive across flooded
roadways.

Aiding the surge of atmospheric moisture into northern California and the
Northwest through the end of the week is a developing storm system
forecast to swing off the Oregon and Washington coastline on Friday. A
punch of gusty winds are expected, mainly along coastal regions, could
produce rough surf and additional isolated power outages. As precipitation
lifts northward and inland along a draped stationary boundary stretching
from the northern Rockies to British Columbia, heavy snow is possible from
the Washington Cascades to the western Montana, Idaho, and northwestern
Wyoming mountain ranges through early Sunday.

November snowfall is also in the forecast for parts of the Northeast and
Great Lakes thanks to a potent upper-level low swinging over the region.
At the surface, a compact area of low pressure is currently looping around
the Great Lakes with an eventual southward trajectory over Lake Michigan
later today. Parts of eastern Wisconsin could see precipitation fall as
snow along with wind gusts up to 40 mph. Winter Weather Advisories have
been issued for snowfall amounts up to 3-4 inches. Meanwhile, a separate
area of low pressure developing near Long Island tonight is also expected
to track in a looping orientation across the Northeast through Friday,
while also producing periods of heavy snow. The greatest chances for at
least 6 inches of snowfall is found across northeast Pennsylvania and
southern New York, including the Pocono and Catskill mountains.
Additionally, a long-duration upslope snow event is underway across the
central Appalachians and anticipated to linger through at least early
Saturday. Up to a foot of snow is possible across the higher terrain of
West Virginia, Maryland, and southwest Pennsylvania. Light snow is also
expected to reach as far south as the higher ranges of North Carolina.

The central and southern U.S. can expect much more tranquil conditions as
high pressure creates a void in the unsettled weather impacting both the
East and West coasts. However, below average temperatures are forecast
from the Mississippi Valley to the Southeast as breezy northwest flow
ushers in a colder airmass. This may lead to early morning frost and/or
freeze potential across the Southeast and Lower Mississippi Valley.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted November 20, 2024

November 20, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed Nov 20 2024
Valid 12Z Wed Nov 20 2024 – 12Z Fri Nov 22 2024

…Back-to-back powerful Pacific storm systems to impact the West Coast
through the end of this week with heavy rain, life-threatening flooding,
strong winds, and higher elevation mountain snow…

…Near blizzard conditions are possible through this evening across the
northern Plains…

…Heavy snow is likely throughout parts of the central Appalachians
beginning on Thursday, with a separate burst of snowfall possible across
northeast Pennsylvania and neighboring regions of the Northeast Thursday
night into Friday...

The active November weather pattern impacting CONUS is forecast to
continue through the end of this week and bring hazardous rain, wind, and
snow for several regions. A significant Pacific storm system and strong
atmospheric river have already started pummeling the West Coast and
Northwest this morning. The very deep low pressure system churning about
300 miles off the coast of Washington is responsible for high winds
impacting much of northern California, Oregon, and Washington. These winds
have already produced numerous power outages, reports of tree damage, and
are expected to create blizzard conditions throughout the Cascades.
Fortunately these winds are expected to gradually subside by midday as the
low pressure system swings away from the region. However, a continuous
plume of ample atmospheric moisture content entering northern California
this morning is forecast to linger through the end of the week and lead to
extreme rainfall totals. Over 10 inches of rainfall across the northern
California coast and inland mountain ranges are likely to increase the
threat of life-threatening flash flooding, rock slides, and debris flows.
As this corridor of heavy rainfall lingers along a stationary boundary
extending into the Pacific Ocean, a separate area of low pressure is
forecast to develop and rapidly strengthen off the Northwest coast on
Friday. This storm will help amplify the atmospheric river streaming into
northern California through Friday morning, exacerbating the flooding
threat. WPC has issued a High Risk (level 4/4) of Excessive Rainfall on
Thursday in order to further highlight this concern. Additionally, another
round of strong winds are anticipated from this second low pressure system
throughout the Northwest to end the week. Residents and visitors residing
or traveling between northern California and Washington are advised to
check road conditions before venturing out, listen to advice from local
officials, review emergency plans, and have multiple ways of receiving
warnings.

For the central U.S. the main weather story will be found throughout the
northern Plains as heavy snow and gusty winds create near blizzard
conditions today. These hazardous weather conditions are resulting from a
slow-moving and gradually weakening low pressure system just north of the
Minnesota-North Dakota border. The greatest snowfall amounts are forecast
across North Dakota, eastern South Dakota, and northwest Minnesota, but
with additional totals today generally under 4 inches. Wind impacts should
be more widespread and extend into eastern Montana and Nebraska as maximum
gusts could exceed 60 mph through tonight. This area of low pressure is
anticipated to rapidly weaken tonight and lead to calmer conditions on
Thursday.

After an extended period of dry and tranquil weather across the Northeast,
the upper level system exiting the northern Plains today will slide
eastward and produce a chance for heavy precipitation in the form of both
rain and snow. The evolution of surface features over the next few days
are forecast to begin with a developing strong and compact low pressure
system over the Great Lakes today, while a cold front quickly pushes
eastward to the Mid-Atlantic by tonight. Showers and maybe a rumble of
thunder may accompany this cold front as rain possibly mixes with snow
spreading across the Great Lakes. By Thursday, a separate area of low
pressure forming along the aforementioned cold front is expected to deepen
and lift northward into the Northeast, while also leading to a blossoming
precipitation shield. Rain is most likely across New England where warmer
air surges from the Atlantic Ocean, but the higher elevations and area
directly underneath the cold upper low pressure system may see
precipitation fall as heavy snow. Probabilities for at least 4 inches of
snow by Friday night are high (70-90%) across northeast Pennsylvania and
the southern Catskill mountains of New York. Impactful snowfall is also
likely to be experienced throughout the Allegheny mountains of West
Virginia, Maryland, and Pennsylvania through the end of the week due to a
longer duration favorable upslope snow setup. Total snowfall amounts in
these higher elevations could add up to a foot.

Elsewhere, high pressure building into the south-central U.S. will create
dry conditions from the lower Mississippi Valley to much of the Plains,
Rockies, and Southwest. The temperature outlook features one final day of
widespread 60s and 70s along the East Coast before a strong cold front
knocks afternoon highs below average through the start of the weekend. The
coldest temperatures when compared to climatology over the next few days
are forecast across the northern Plains (highs in the 20s) and Ohio Valley
(highs in the 30s and 40s).

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Looking Back at October 2024 Weather for the U.S. and the World – Posted on November 19, 2024

November 19, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

Much of the information in this report comes from the monthly emails I receive from John Bateman. He does public outreach for NOAA and in particular NCEI. I could find the same information and more on the NCEI website but John Bateman produces a good summary so I use it or most of it. I also add additional information from NCEI or other NOAA websites. At the end of the article, I provide links that will get you to the full reports and much additional information.

 My comments if any are in boxes like this one.

I start with the trends of October 2024 Temperature looking at North America and then the World both land and water and land only. There is a graphic for just CONUS but the format is different and it is not as easy to read.

This is the temperature trend for the month of October in North America. It covers a larger geographical area than just CONUS but I find it easier to read. It looks like the October temperature was a record for the month of October.

The temperature for the world, land and ocean did not hit a new record. But the temperature for October this year and last was a lot higher than the trend.

The temperature for the world, (land only) may have hit a new record but was mostly tied with October of last year. Notice that land temperatures increase faster than land and ocean as water takes more energy.

To read the rest of this article some will have to click on “Read More”.

Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted November 19, 2024

November 19, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Nov 19 2024
Valid 12Z Tue Nov 19 2024 – 12Z Thu Nov 21 2024

…Powerful Pacific low pressure system to produce significant high wind
impacts and heavy mountain snow across the Northwest, while a strong
atmospheric river takes aim at northern California by Wednesday…

…Potent storm system over the northern Plains to produce gusty winds and
locally heavy snow throughout the region before a redeveloping area of low
pressure brings unsettled weather to the Great Lakes, central
Appalachians, and Northeast from midweek onward…

…Heavy rain and flash flooding potential continues throughout portions
of the central and eastern Gulf Coast today…

No shortage of active weather across the Nation this week as two separate
strong low pressure systems produce hazardous conditions in the form of
high winds, heavy rain, and snowfall. Starting with the Pacific Northwest,
a rapidly strengthening and extremely powerful low pressure system
forecast to pass roughly 300 miles west of the Olympic Peninsula tonight
is anticipated to begin impacting the region today. Damaging winds with
gusts up to 70 mph are possible across northern California, as well as
parts of Oregon and Washington, with the highest winds expected along the
coast and high terrain. These winds are likely to produce numerous power
outages and tree damage in the most impacted regions. When combined with
heavy snowfall at the higher elevations, blizzard conditions are in the
forecast throughout the Washington Cascades. As an associated frontal
boundary slides southeastward and stalls near northern California on
Wednesday, a deep and continuous plume of anomalous atmospheric moisture
content will flow into the Redwood Coast of California and northern
mountain ranges of the Golden State. Heavy rain and rising snow levels
will increase the threat of numerous floods and potential mudslides,
exacerbated by the duration of heavy rainfall through the end of the week.
In fact, WPC has issued a High Risk (level 4/4) of Excessive Rainfall
across parts of northwest California on Thursday in order to further
highlight this flooding threat. Residents and visitors throughout the
Northwest are urged to have multiple ways to receive warnings, listen to
advice from local officials, and avoid traveling through hazardous weather
conditions if possible.

In the north-central U.S. another potent low pressure system is lifting
northward and producing unsettled weather of its own across the Upper
Midwest and northern Plains today. A tight pressure gradient being
produced by the storm is forecast to create strong winds across much of
Nebraska, eastern Montana, and the Dakotas through Wednesday with maximum
wind gusts up to 65 mph possible. Strong winds may also overlap with
moderate to locally heavy snow throughout North Dakota and northwest
Minnesota as the storm system stalls tonight over south-central Canada.
Probabilities for at least 6 inches of total snowfall are high (>70%)
across northern North Dakota. Meanwhile, scattered showers are forecast to
spread eastward into the Midwest, Great Lakes, and eventually the
Mid-Atlantic ahead of an advancing cold front today. By Wednesday night, a
redeveloping low pressure system rapidly strengthening over the Great
Lakes will help produce another round of precipitation over the Great
Lakes, central Appalachians and Northeast through the end of the week. The
greatest impacts from this precipitation is expected throughout the higher
elevations of West Virginia and western Maryland, where up to a foot of
snowfall is possible through Friday.

Elsewhere, heavy rain and a risk for scattered flash floods remains a
concern across the central and eastern Gulf Coast as a cold front, weak
area of low pressure, and ample atmospheric moisture content spark
numerous showers and thunderstorms capable of containing intense rainfall
rates through tonight. The greatest risk for flash flooding specifically
exists from far eastern Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle, with
urban and poor drainage regions most susceptible to rapid water rises.

Temperatures will be on a roller coaster ride this week as well above
average temperatures are found in the East before an advancing cold front
knocks readings down below average by Thursday. Meanwhile, cooler
temperatures over much of the West are forecast to return to near normal
as upper ridging builds into place.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted November 18, 2024

November 18, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Nov 18 2024
Valid 12Z Mon Nov 18 2024 – 12Z Wed Nov 20 2024

…A potent storm system over the central U.S. today will create chances
for heavy rainfall, severe thunderstorms, and gusty winds, while moderate
snowfall is possible across the northern Plains by Tuesday…

…Heavy rain and flash flooding potential exists throughout the central
and eastern Gulf Coast over the next few days…

…Powerful Pacific low pressure system to impact the Northwest with high
winds and heavy mountain snow, while an atmospheric river takes aim at
northern California by Wednesday…

An amplified weather pattern and two separate strong storm systems are set
to impact the Nation during the first half of this week. First, a deep low
pressure system ejecting out of West Texas early this morning is
anticipated to further organize over the central U.S. today and produce
areas of heavy rain, severe weather, and gusty winds to the
southern/central Plains. Thunderstorms forming along an attached cold
front may contain damaging winds and perhaps a few tornadoes between
central Oklahoma and North Texas today. This region is where the Storm
Prediction Center has hoisted a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe
thunderstorms. As the system progresses northward into the Upper Midwest
on Tuesday, showers are also forecast to spread north throughout parts of
the Midwest and Great Lakes. Meanwhile, cold air working into the western
side of the storm will likely allow for precipitation to fall as snow
across parts of North Dakota and northern Minnesota into Wednesday.
Snowfall may also be accompanied by gusty winds, leading to lower
visibility on roadways. Current snowfall probabilities for at least 4
inches of snow are greatest (70-90%) across north-central North Dakota.

As the associated cold front pushes eastward through Tuesday, numerous
showers and thunderstorms interacting with a surge of moisture being
lifted northward from the Gulf of Mexico could contain intense rainfall
rates capable of producing flash flooding. Heavy rainfall is most likely
tonight across eastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi, with the threat
expanding east to the Florida Panhandle on Tuesday. Scattered flash floods
are most likely throughout low-lying and urban regions. Residents and
visitors are reminded to have multiple ways to receive warnings and never
drive across flooded roadways.

For much of the Northwest, northern Great Basin, and northern Rockies, a
cold front pushing across the region today and enhanced onshore flow will
allow for unsettled weather to continue ahead of a powerful storm system
forecast to develop off the coast of the Northwest on Tuesday. This
appetizer of precipitation to start the workweek will mainly include the
potential for moderate to heavy snowfall across the Cascades and northern
Rockies. However, by Tuesday night the rapidly strengthening Pacific low
pressure system will aid in producing high winds across the Pacific
Northwest and increasing precipitation intensity. Wind gusts up to 70 mph
are possible across parts of northern California and Oregon, with strong
winds also expected over parts of western Washington. These winds will
have the potential to knock down trees and produce power outages. Heavy
snowfall with amounts potentially exceeding two feet are possible over the
northern California ranges and Cascades. By Wednesday, an associated
atmospheric rive event is expected to take shape and direct continuous
Pacific moisture towards northern California and southwest Oregon.
Widespread rainfall amounts of 4 to 7 inches are expected through
Wednesday across this region, which could produce areas of river flooding
and increase the risk of mudslides. Heavy rain and the associated weather
hazards from this atmospheric river event are also expected to continue
beyond midweek.

Below average temperatures are forecast to remain over much of the western
U.S. over the next few days while gradually spreading eastward into the
Great Plains. Meanwhile, high pressure over the East will continue to
create mild and dry conditions through Tuesday as rainfall chances enter
the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Wednesday.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted November 17, 2024

November 17, 2024Posted inUncategorizedNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Nov 17 2024
Valid 12Z Sun Nov 17 2024 – 12Z Tue Nov 19 2024

…Widespread precipitation expected across the Northwest and northern
Rockies, including heavy mountain snow for parts of the region…

…A strong area of low pressure will bring periods of heavy rain, gusty
winds, and the potential for severe thunderstorms throughout the southern
to central Plains between tonight and Monday…

…Heavy rain and scattered instances of flash flooding possible early
this week across the central and eastern Gulf Coast…

An inland progressing cold front and associated onshore flow off the
Pacific Ocean will aid in producing widespread precipitation over the next
few days across the Northwest and northern Rockies. Moderate to locally
heavy rain is possible across coastal sections of Washington and Oregon,
while heavy snow is likely throughout the Cascades and high terrain of
northern Idaho and western Montana. Meanwhile, a much stronger storm
system and corresponding atmospheric river is anticipated to begin
impacting the Northwest Tuesday night. Strong winds and heavy rainfall are
possible from northern California to Washington, with potential impacts
including scattered flooding and power outages, as well as heavy mountain
snowfall.

A strong area of low pressure is also forecast to produce numerous weather
hazards across the central U.S. beginning tonight. The strengthening storm
system is expected to organize over West Texas and push into the central
Plains by Monday. On the east side of this storm a strong surge of
atmospheric moisture content from the western Gulf of Mexico will aid in
creating an environment ripe for thunderstorm development, particularly
across western/central Texas and southwest Oklahoma into early Monday.
This region is where the Storm Prediction Center currently highlights the
best potential for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes. A draped
stationary boundary extending from the central Plains into the low
pressure center will allow for a corridor of focused heavy rainfall and
the possibility of scattered flash flooding. Flood Watches are in effect
from northwest Texas to central Oklahoma in order to highlight this
concern. As the anomalously deep system moves northward on Tuesday,
rainfall chances will also spread northward into the Upper Midwest. Snow
is also likely to develop across parts of North Dakota and could be heavy
at time through Wednesday morning. Additionally, a tight pressure gradient
associated with this area of low pressure could create periods of strong
winds throughout the central U.S. early this week.

Heavy rainfall is also a concern throughout the central and eastern Gulf
Coast early this week as an approaching cold front interacts with a surge
of tropical moisture associated with Tropical Storm Sara as it dissipates
over Belize today. This elevated atmospheric moisture content is
anticipated to allow for areas of heavy rainfall between eastern Louisiana
and the Florida Panhandle, with high chances (70-90%) for widespread
rainfall amounts of at least 2 inches.

Temperatures anomalies are forecast to split the Nation in half over the
next few days as below normal temperatures dominate the West, while above
normal readings remain in the East. Dry conditions can be anticipated
along much of the East Coast, central High Plains, and Southwest through
Wednesday morning.

[Image of rainfall potential]

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Our Report on the JAMSTEC Three-Season Forecast – Can be Compared to the NOAA Outlook – Posted on Nov 16, 2024

November 16, 2024Posted inUncategorizedNo Comments

The Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, or JAMSTEC, is a Japanese national research institute for marine-earth science and technology

From the JAMSTEC Discussion:

“Recent observations show weak signs of La Niña. The SINTEX-F ensemble mean predicts that a weak La Niña Modoki will develop during the boreal winter, but there is uncertainty in the timing and amplitude of the event. The tropical Pacific will then be in a neutral state during the boreal spring and summer.”

Although it is a World forecast, it includes a forecast for North America since North America is part of the World. One might try to compare it to the NOAA Outlook when we publish the NOAA Outlook.

First, we take a look at the forecasted sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA). JAMSTEC starts by forecasting the SSTA and Nino 3.4 Index on the first day of the month and from there it usually takes their models about two weeks to produce their seasonal forecast. I received it from JAMSTEC on November 12,  2024  which is before NOAA has issued their four-season update this month.  The JAMSTEC model runs are based on conditions as of November 1, 2024. The NOAA Seasonal Outlook is based on conditions closer to the time when it will be issued.

We have a full three-season forecast from JAMSTEC this month. We have forecast maps for  DJF, MAM and JJA so it is really a three-season forecast.

We also have single-month JAMASTEC forecasts for December 2025 through May 2025 . I do not have the NOAA four season outlook yet so I could not do the comparisons but I might try doing that when the NOAA four-season Outlook is published.

Let’s take a look at the JAMSTEC three-season forecast.

This shows their forecast of sea surface temperature anomalies at three points in time. Blue is a cold anomaly and is associated with La Nina if it occurs in the Nino 3.4 measurement areas in the Pacific along the Equator. The cool anomaly along the Equator is somewhat further west than usual which gives it the Modoki characteristics.

The U.S.  funded some of the Modoki research but for some reason declines to mention it in their seasonal outlook discussions.

In the DJF image above, look at that blob of cool (anomaly) water to the west along the Equator. Thus the La Nina has Modoki characteristics that impact the Walker circulation. I have written about that before. It raises questions about the reliability of our current approach to thinking about the ENSO Cycle. This is covered in another article that can be accessed HERE.  It was also discussed in the most recent ENSO Update in the article by Emily Becker. That article can be accessed HERE.

Of interest also is the neutrally cold water just off the West Coast of the U.S. and the warm water between Africa and the north coast of South America which can support tropical storms and hurricanes.

NOAA  publishes a similar SSTA  analysis. It can be accessed  HERE.

JAMSTEC uses the same definition of Normal (climatology) as NOAA. JAMSTEC does a better job at characterizing La Ninas and El Ninos than NOAA. JAMSTEC provides me with a lot of other information that I do not include in my articles to keep them to a manageable size for readers. That material is the atmospheric pressure patterns.

This month we have the JAMSTEC three-season forecast before the NOAA  four-season forecast was issued. We will do the comparisons in the article on the NOAA four-season forecast which we will publish next Friday.

Some Readers will have to click on “Read More” to read the rest of the article which you need to read to see the forecasts. I can only include a certain amount of material in the lede.

Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted November 16, 2024

November 16, 2024Posted inUncategorizedNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Nov 16 2024
Valid 12Z Sat Nov 16 2024 – 12Z Mon Nov 18 2024

…Periods of heavy coastal rain and mountain snow to impact the Northwest
this weekend, with heavy snow also spreading into the Northern Rockies…

…Heavy rain and severe weather potential to develop over the Southern
Plains Sunday night…

…Elevated fire weather concerns will continue across parts of the
Northeast through this weekend…

Unsettled weather is in store for the Pacific Northwest and Northern
Rockies through early next week as a strong cold front moves inland later
today and leads to a consistent flow of Pacific moisture into the region.
Heavy coastal rain can be expected throughout western Oregon and
Washington, with heavy snow in the higher elevations of the Olympic and
Cascade mountains. Winter Storm Warnings are in effect starting today
across the Cascades due to forecast snowfall accumulations up to 2 feet.
Mountain snow is also anticipated to expand eastward into the Northern
Rockies by late tonight. Meanwhile, a separate area of low pressure racing
out of the Northern Plains today ahead of the Pacific Northwest system may
produce a swath of moderate snow of its own, with the medium chances
(40-60%) for at least 4 inches of snow across northeast Montana and
northwest North Dakota.

By Sunday night, a blossoming precipitation shield is forecast to impact
the southern Plains in response to a rapidly strengthening low pressure
system. This anomalously strong area of low pressure will help surge ample
atmospheric moisture content northward into a draped stationary boundary
and produce areas of heavy rain from North Texas and the Texas Panhandle
through central Oklahoma into eastern Kansas by Monday. Scattered
instances of flash flooding are possible. Additionally, thunderstorms may
become severe as an attached cold front pushes across the Lone Star State,
with a risk damaging wind gusts and possibly a tornado or two into Monday
morning.

Dry conditions and gradually warming temperatures can be expected across
the eastern U.S. through early next week in response to a large high
pressure system sliding to the East Coast by Monday. While this is great
news for outdoor fall activities, there remains elevated fire weather
concerns throughout New England and the Northeast this weekend due to
recent increasing drought conditions and breezy northwest winds. Red Flag
Warnings continue for much of the highly populated I-95 corridor from
Philadelphia to Boston.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

NOAA Updates its ENSO Alert on November 14, 2024 – We Remain in ENSO Neutral or do We?– Published November 15, 2024

November 15, 2024Posted inUncategorizedNo Comments

“Synopsis:   “In summary, La Niña is most likely to emerge in October-December 2024 (57% chance) and is expected to persist through January-March 2025).”

So we are really in ENSO Neutral but NOAA may not want to admit their forecast was wrong so they present it as waiting for La Nina. It is correct that we are in La Nina Watch but it is also correct that we currently remain in ENSO Neutral.

On the second Thursday of every month, NOAA (really their Climate Prediction Center CPC) issues its analysis of the status of ENSO. This includes determining the Alert System Status.  NOAA now describes their conclusion as “ENSO Alert System Status: La Nino Watch”

The exact timing of the transition is now perhaps more clear which should increase the reliability of the Seasonal Outlook to be issued next Thursday.

We have included an ENSO Blog article by Emily  Becker. It raises the question which I have raised before. With Global Warming, are we measuring the phases of ENSO correctly? This is a very important question. We will discuss this graphic which is provided by Emily Becker.

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER ENSO DISCUSSION (LINK)

The second paragraph is what is important:

The IRI plume predicts a weak and short duration La Niña, as indicated by the Niño-3.4 index values less than -0.5°C. The latest North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) forecasts are cooler than the IRI plume and predict a weak La Niña.  Due to this guidance and La Niña-like atmospheric circulation anomalies over the tropics, the team still favors the onset of La Niña, but it is likely to remain weak and have a shorter duration than other historical episodes.  A weak La Niña would be less likely to result in conventional winter impacts, though predictable signals could still influence the forecast guidance (e.g., CPC’s seasonal outlooks).  In summary, La Niña is most likely to emerge in October-December 2024 (57% chance) and is expected to persist through January-March 2025).

Below is the middle paragraph from the discussion last month.

“The IRI plume predicts a weak and a short duration La Niña, as indicated by the Niño-3.4 index values less than -0.5°C. The latest North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) forecasts were warmer this month, but still predict a weak La Niña.  As a result of the warmer predictions and the recent weakening of equatorial trade winds, the team still favors a weak event, but has lowered the chances of La Niña.  A weaker La Niña implies that it would be less likely to result in conventional winter impacts, though predictable signals could still influence the forecast guidance (e.g., CPC’s seasonal outlooks).  In summary, La Niña is favored to emerge in September-November (60% chance) and is expected to persist through January-March 2025).”

We now provide additional details.

CPC Probability Distribution

Here are the new forecast probabilities. The probabilities are for three-month periods e.g. ASO  stands for August/September/October.

Here is the forecast from last month.

The analysis this month and last month are a bit different with again the transition to La Nina being slightly slower than thought last month. Also, the probabilities of a La Nina are lower than estimated last month. This seems to be a trend. The chart is clearer than the discussion in the summary report above.  The La Nina is a bit slower to arrive. I am not sure that we will actually have a La Nina.  However, one should read the Emily Becker article, which is discussed later in this article.

Some will need to click on “Read More” to read the rest of this article.

Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted November 15, 2024

November 15, 2024Posted inUncategorizedNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Nov 15 2024
Valid 12Z Fri Nov 15 2024 – 12Z Sun Nov 17 2024

…Unsettled weather persists throughout much of the West today before the
next strong storm system enters the Pacific Northwest on Saturday…

…Elevated fire weather concerns continue across parts of the Northeast…

…Next round of heavy rain and severe weather potential to develop over
the Southern Plains late Sunday…

The end of the workweek and upcoming weekend will have plenty of potential
weather hazards scattered across the Nation as we reach the midway point
of November. A system crossing the Intermountain West today will continue
to bring areas of moderate snowfall from the central Sierra Nevada to the
Northern Rockies into Saturday. The highest elevations have high chances
(>70%) for at least 4 inches of snowfall and coincide with where Winter
Weather Advisories have been issued. Precipitation is also possible across
the Northern Plains on Saturday as an area of low pressure crosses the
region, with a mix of rain and snow at times. This system will also have
the potential to produce periods of strong winds across parts of the
Montana Front Range on Saturday. As the weekend begins, a strong frontal
boundary and surge of Pacific moisture is set to move inland across the
Pacific Northwest and bring the potential for heavy coastal/lowland
rainfall and snow to the Washington and Oregon Cascades. In fact, Winter
Storm Watches have been hoisted for the Cascades due to the potential for
total snow accumulations of 1 to 2 feet, with locally higher snow amounts
over the highest peaks.

For the East, two separate storm systems brushing coastal regions while a
large area of high pressure builds into the Great Lakes and slides over
the Appalachians by Sunday will drive weather conditions through this
weekend. Gusty winds and locally heavy rain are possible along the Outer
Banks of North Carolina and surrounding Mid-Atlantic coastline today due
to a rapidly deepening, but quickly exiting, low pressure system. Showers
and strong winds will be short-lived as the storm races eastward into the
open Atlantic by tonight, with breezy conditions remaining due to a tight
pressure gradient related to high pressure over the Great Lakes. A
separate storm system swinging into the Canadian Maritimes will produce
showers over parts of Maine, with a light glaze of freezing rain possible
today where temperatures hang just below the freezing mark. In between
these two system will remain a very dry and breezy Northeast, prompting an
additional few days of fire weather concerns. Conditions will remain ripe
for developing wildfires through at least Saturday thanks to a stiff
northwest breeze and low relative humidity, including major I-95 cities
between Philadelphia and Boston.

By late this weekend the next rainmaker for the Southern Plains is
forecast to develop as an organizing low pressure system strengthens over
West Texas Sunday night. This system is then forecast to move
northeastward into Monday morning and spread numerous showers and
thunderstorms between the Texas Panhandle/North Texas to central Oklahoma.
Periods of heavy rain may lead to areas of flash flooding, especially in
urban and poor drainage locations. A few strong thunderstorms may also
have the potential to contain large hail, frequent lightning, and damaging
wind gusts.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.