NOAA Updates It’s September, 2023 Outlook on August 31, 2023 – There Have Been Some Dramatic Changes from the Mid-Month Outlook

September 1, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

At the end of every month, NOAA updates its Outlook for the following month which in this case is September of 2023. We are reporting on that tonight.

There have been some dramatic changes in the Outlook for September and these are addressed in the NOAA Discussion so it is well worth reading.  We provided the prior Mid-Month Outlook for September for comparison. It is easy to see the changes by comparing the Mid-Month and Updated Maps.

The article includes the Drought Outlook for September. NOAA also adjusted the previously issued Seasonal Drought Outlook to reflect the changes in the September Drought Outlook. We have included a map showing the water-year-to-date precipitation. We also provide the Week 2/3 Tropical Outlook for the World.

The best way to understand the updated outlook for September is to view the maps and read the NOAA discussion. I have highlighted the key statements in the NOAA Discussion.

I am going to start with graphics that show the updated Outlook for September and the Mid-Month Outlook for September. This is followed by a graphic that shows both the Updated Outlook for September and also the three-month outlook SON 2023. So you get the full picture in three graphics.

Here is the updated Outlook for September 2023

For Comparison Purposes, Here is the Mid-Month Outlook for September.

There have been some dramatic changes. Remember, it is the top set of maps that are the current outlook for September.

Combination of the Updated Outlook for September and the Three-Month Outlook

The top row is the Updated Outlook for the new month. There is a temperature map and a precipitation map. The second row is a three-month outlook that includes the new month. I think the outlook maps are self-explanatory. What is important to remember is that they show deviations from the current definition of normal which is the period 1991 through 2020.  So this is not a forecast of the absolute value of temperature or precipitation but the change from what is defined as normal or to use the technical term climatology.