The polar vortex is acting up – January 24, 2024

January 24, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

Last month there was some concern that we were having a Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event. It seems that it did happen but in a fairly minor way and the resulting cold intrusions of Arctic air seem to have not lasted for very long. I came across this posted article on Climate.Gov attributed to Laura Cisto and Amy Butler. I am reproducing their article here except for the comments it received. You can access the article with the comments HERE. The comments are always quite interesting and the authors typically reply to those comments. And that process can continue for some time which is why I have provided the link to the Post by Laura Cisto and Amy Butler.

It is difficult reading and not everyone will want to dig into it but it is here for those with a deep interest in weather. Where I have comments, I have put them in boxes within the article. For those with an insatiable curiosity, THIS explanation of Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events will probably quench your thirst.  The blog post that I have in this article describes a recent mini-SSW event that was somewhat unusual.

 

 

To read the full article you may need to click on “Read More”.

Introducing the New Polar Vortex Blog – December 9, 2023

December 9, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

This is not the most informative article on the Polar Vortex but NOAA Climate.gov home of the ENSO Blog that I refer to often has started a Polar Vortex Blog and this is the first blog post. I have provided it in this article but you can also find it HERE.

The post is informative but the Further Reading links in the post are probably even more informative.

Drawing comparing the location of the stratospheric polar vortex and the polar jet stream

NOAA Updates it’s Four-Season Outlook On February 16, 2023 – Potential El Niño impacts were considered in the outlooks for autumn 2023 and next winter

February 17, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 3:05 p.m. EST February 17, 2023 to incorporate information on the latest Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event

On the third Thursday of the month right on schedule NOAA issued what I describe as their Four-Season Outlook. The information released also included the MId-Month Outlook for the single month of March plus the weather and drought outlook for the next three months.  I present the information issued and try to add context to it. It is quite a challenge for NOAA to address the subsequent month, the subsequent three-month period as well as successive three-month periods for a year or a bit more.

It is very useful to read the excellent discussion that NOAA issues with this Seasonal Outlook. The CPC/IRI analysis suggests that ENSO will very soon return to Neutral with a La Nino bias and gradually transition to true Neutral, Neutral with an El Nino bias, and then solidly El Nino. Confidence in the first part of that sequence of transitions is higher than in the latter part of the sequence.