Mar 2022 Southwest Climate Podcast – Cold(ish), Windy, and Dry – Winter Recap & Looking Ahead

March 14, 2022Posted inClimate, weatherNo Comments

In the March 2022 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido “dive into a recap of winter (so far) in the Southwest. First, recap winter to date, and put it in the context of a double-dip La Niña, including precipitation totals, temperature, and snowpack. Then they take a closer look at the phases of the PNA (Pacific/North American pattern) and how this links to ENSO/La Niña and the weather conditions this winter. Finally, they revisit temperature to consider just how “cold” it has actually been, and preview a closer look at fire outlooks, snowpack, and water supply in upcoming podcasts”.

NOAA Updates March 2022 Outlook

March 1, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

At the end of every month, NOAA updates their Early Outlook for the following month which in this case is March. They also issue a drought outlook for the following month. We are reporting on that tonight. The updated Outlook is not very different from the Early Outlook which NOAA now calls the Mid-Month Outlook. It is a bit less warm than the Mid-Month Outlook, slightly wetter, and there seems to be a lower level of confidence in the probabilities associated with the various anomalies in the Outlook. There is a lot of variation throughout the month and this is described in the NOAA discussion and we provide partial-month outlooks for the first 25 days of March.  We also provide enough information for readers to understand any changes from the Mid-Month Outlook and we try to figure out why these changes were made.

NOAA Updates their Four-Season Outlook on February 17, 2022

February 18, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Introduction

Today is the third Thursday of the month so right on schedule NOAA has issued their Seasonal Outlook which extends slightly more than a year so I call it a four-season outlook. It also includes what NOAA calls their Early Outlook for the following month which is March and a drought Outlook for the next three months. The maps show where temperature and precipitation will deviate from normal as the existing La Nina weakens and the weather pattern reverts to normal as adjusted to take into account what NOAA calls decadal trends. I include the full NOAA Discussion which supports their predictions. There is no guarantee that the future will unfold exactly as projected by NOAA but having this information which represents both a near-term and fairly long-term Outlook can be very useful.