JAMSTEC Seasonal Outlook for Spring and Summer of 2022
I should have reported this a couple of weeks ago after NOAA issued their Seasonal Outlook. JAMSTEC is a well respected Japanese Research Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology. They have a proprietary forecast model and every month they normally issue a three-season forecast. This month they only looked out two seasons. I think it is useful to look at more than one forecast as it provides to some extent an assessment of the variability one might expect in the observed weather compared to the forecasts. This is usually due to slight differences in the strength and timing of the ENSO Cycle. As discussed in this article, both NOAA and JAMSTEC may be working with assumptions about the ENSO cycle that may turn out to be incorrect. So this may limit our ability to forecast even as far out as this summer.
