NOAA Updates their October 2022 Outlook on September 30, 2022

October 2, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

 Drought expands in the Southern and to a lesser extent Central Great Plains. Anomalous wetness centered on Colorado and a cool/wet Mid-Atlantic Region.

At the end of every month, NOAA updates their Outlook for the following month which in this case is October. They also issue a Drought Outlook for the following month. We are reporting on that tonight.

There have been some significant changes in the Outlook for October and these are addressed in the NOAA Discussion so it is well worth reading. We highlighted some of the important changes within the NOAA Discussion.

Of significant interest is the Drought Outlook for October. Tropical activity has eliminated the East Coast Drought but we are beginning the increase in drought for the Great Plains that will likely continue until the end of this La Nina.

We have also included four months of Wildland Fire Potential Outlooks and also a map showing the year-to-date precipitation in the West. We also provide the Week 2/3 Tropical Outlook for the World

NOAA Updates its Four Season Outlook on September 15, 2022 – One More La Nina Winter

September 17, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Preparing to Say Goodbye to La Nina Early in 2023. It seems as if it is taking forever but if the forecasters are correct, we are talking about four to six months from now.

Today is the third Thursday of the month so right on schedule NOAA has issued what I describe as their Four-Season Outlook. The information released also includes the Early Outlook for the single month of October plus the weather and drought outlook for the next three months.  I present the information issued and try to add context to it. It is quite a challenge for NOAA to address the subsequent month, the subsequent three-month period as well as successive three-month periods for a year or a bit more.

It is very useful to read the excellent discussion that NOAA issues with this Seasonal Outlook. NOAA seems to be more confident about making predictions beyond six months. They even predicted a good monsoon next summer which they never do this far in advance.