NOAA Updates July Outlook – June 30, 2022 – Not Much Change – Some Ocean Indicators are Surprising

By Sig Silber July 1, 2022weatherNo Comments

Updated at 2:30 am EDT July 2, 2022 to incorporate the Week 3 – 4 Outlook which suggests that the second half of July will not be as cool in the Northwest but perhaps less warm elsewhere and the Monsoon may be less robust but some other areas will be less dry.

At the end of every month, NOAA updates their Mid-Month Outlook for the following month which in this case is July. They also issue a Drought Outlook for the following month and update the three-month Drought Outlook. We are reporting on that tonight. The updated Outlook is very similar to the Mid-Month Outlook. This is surprising since the Mid-Month Outlook was issued two weeks ago and there usually are more changes in that period of time.

For temperature, the shape and location of the large dry anomaly have changed a bit. The cool anomaly in the Northwest is now slightly larger. For precipitation, the area where an above-average Monsoon is forecasted is a little larger and shifted a bit to include more of New Mexico. there is a new small dry anomaly

We provide partial-month Outlooks for the first 22 days of July which allows us to somewhat assess if the Monthly Outlook is consistent with the partial-month Outlooks and it generally is. But we will not be able to answer that question definitively until the Week 3-4 Outlook is issued tomorrow. We will provide an update at that time.

We also provide enough information for readers to understand any changes from the Mid-Month Outlook and we try to figure out why these changes were made. Many of the changes are explained in the NOAA discussion which is included in the article. The partial-month forecasts that we have provided show how NOAA thinks this will play out as the weather pattern evolves during July.

There is also a discussion of the ENSO condition which is ever so slightly different than what NOAA used to develop the Mid-Month Outlook. But there is a fairly strong signal that this La Nina will end in late winter 2022/2023. The impacts on weather may not be noticed until Spring. But that is just the current forecast and can change.

We have also begun our tropical storm coverage. Yes, it is that time of the year. We are also providing special coverage of the Monsoon by providing the links to those daily updates.

NOAA Issues their Four-Season Outlook on June 16, 2022 – One or Two Month Delay in Southern Tier Shedding La Nina Weather

By Sig Silber June 17, 2022weatherNo Comments

.Updated at 5 pm EDT on June 18 to incorporate the Week 3 – 5 Outlook issued on June 17 which is somewhat different than the full-month outlook so it is of some interest.

Change Appears to be Coming – but a bit slower than it looked last month.

Even though the IRI analysis issued last week seems to show the La Nina will end perhaps a bit sooner than previously forecast, the weather outlooks seem to show weather impacts lasting a month or two longer. Uncertainty in the ENSO forecast introduces greater than usual uncertainty in the Seasonal Outlook. But the decadal trends are strong so we see a lot of that in the longer-term outlooks.

NOAA Updates their Week 3-4 Outlook on June 3, 2022 – Easterly Wave and Monsoon Onset Likely

By Sig Silber June 4, 2022weatherNo Comments

Updated at !:30 am EDT Monday, June 6, 2022 to include the Tropical Storm Alex Tracking Map which mostly now threatens Bermuda on Monday. A near miss rather than a direct hit is expected.

On Tuesday, we discussed the NOAA update of their Outlook for June 2022. We only had 24 days of the short-term outlooks at that time so I decided to publish the Weeks 3 – 4 Outlook when it was issued which was today. It is always issued on a Friday. This combined with the discussion issued with the Outlook provides additional insight into how June weather will evolve.

The Weeks 3 and 4 Outlook just released and the precipitation Outlook (it remains an experimental product of NOAA), seems to confirm the Outlook for the Month of June with the possible exception that parts of the Southwest may be impacted by an Easterly Wave (from tropical activity) and an early onset of the North American Monsoon (NAM).

NOAA Updates its June Outlook May 31, 2022 – Quite a Big Change in Twelve Days

By Sig Silber June 1, 2022weatherNo Comments

There has been a large change in the weather outlook for June from NOAA.

At the end of every month, NOAA updates their Early Outlook for the following month which in this case is June. They also issue a Drought Outlook for the following month and update the three-month Drought Outlook. We are reporting on that tonight. The updated Outlook is quite different from the Early Outlook which NOAA now calls the Mid-Month Outlook. For temperature, the above-normal area is smaller than the Mid-Month Outlook and a large intrusion of colder air is expected along much of the Northern Tier. The drier than normal area is significantly reduced from the Mid-Month Outlook and shifted a bit and there are two additional areas of wetter than normal in the Outlook.

We provide partial-month outlooks for the first 24 days of June which allows us to somewhat assess if the Monthly Outlook is consistent with the partial month forecasts and it generally is. But we will not be able to answer that question definitively until the Week 3-4 Outlook is issued on Friday.

There is also a discussion of the ENSO condition which is slightly different than what NOAA used to develop the Mid-Month Outlook. The Negative Arctic Oscillation (AO) expected in the first half of June is a major factor.

We have also begun our tropical storm coverage. Yes, it is that time of the year.

NOAA Issues their Four-Season Outlook on May 19, 2022

By Sig Silber May 21, 2022weatherNo Comments

Change Appears to be Coming

Today is the third Thursday of the month so right on schedule NOAA has issued what I describe as their Four-Season Outlook. The information released also includes the Early Outlook for the single month of June plus the drought outlook for the next three months. I summarize the information issued and provide links to additional maps. Additionally, I have included quite a bit in this article. I want to remind everyone that last Thursday NOAA issued their ENSO outlook and that has a lot of influence on their Seasonal Outlook. The Seasonal Outlook generally reflects La Nina conditions initially with no clear indication of when this La Nina will end. There could be a triple-dip La Nina. That is not the most likely scenario but certainly can not be discounted. There is fairly good news with respect to the North American Monsoon (NAM).

The exact location of the Drought seems to be shifting a bit especially after this Summer. See the set of twelve overlapping three-month maps and my comments for details.

JAMSTEC Issues their Seasonal Outlook – May 13, 2022

By Sig Silber May 14, 2022weatherNo Comments

Usually, I compare the JAMSTEC forecast with the NOAA forecast after NOAA Issues its Seasonal Outlook. But this month, JAMSTEC was very early so I thought I would share it with everyone now. NOAA calls their predictions an outlook but JAMSTEC calls their predictions a forecast. I am going to show the JAMSTEC forecasts by month and by season and some of the indices they use in their model. They make world forecasts and for any readers who do not realize it, the U.S. is part of the world so it is covered by a world forecast. Of the two seasons that include our monsoon, I will extract the North American forecast from their world forecast and enlarge it.

I like the JAMSTEC forecast because the U.S. is part of the world and our weather is not independent of the worldwide weather pattern. In fact, most of U.S. weather originates in the Pacific Ocean and the Pacific Ocean is where Japan is located. In fact, Japan and the US jointly manage the monitoring system along the Equator that helps predict the phases of ENSO. So one of the reasons I include worldwide forecasts in articles is to encourage the understanding of worldwide weather patterns. It is not that the U.S. does not cooperate with other nations with respect to weather forecasts as it does. But to view weather forecasts on the Internet or TV you would not easily notice that. The U.S. pays hardly any attention to what other meteorological agencies predict.

For those interested in the U.S., the forecast for the Summer Monsoon and the overall placement of the drought is of interest. We will have the NOAA forecast this Thursday and it will be interesting to see the level of agreement or disagreement.

NOAA Updates their Seasonal Outlook on April 21, 2022 – High Level of Uncertainty Near and Longer Term

By Sig Silber April 22, 2022weather2 Comments

Introduction

Today is the third Thursday of the month so right on schedule NOAA has issued what I describe as their Four-Season Outlook. The information released also includes the Early Outlook for the single month of May plus the drought outlook for the next three months. I summarize the information that was issued and provide links that will take the reader to additional maps. But I have included quite a bit in this article. I want to remind everyone that last Thursday NOAA issued their ENSO outlook and that has a lot of influence on their Seasonal Outlook. The Seasonal Outlook generally reflects La Nina conditions initially with no clear indication of when this La Nina will end. There could be a triple-dip La Nina but that is not the most likely scenario but certainly can not be discounted. There is fairly good news with respect to the North American Monsoon (NAM).

Because of the high level of uncertainty indicated for the May Outlook, I will provide an update or publish a short addendum when the week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated later today. Sometimes that adds additional clarity. I urge readers to read the discussion that was issued by NOAA with their Outlook maps.

JAMSTEC Issues their Seasonal Outlook based on April 1, 2022 Model Runs

By Sig Silber April 17, 2022weatherNo Comments

Usually, I compare the JAMSTEC forecast with the NOAA forecast after NOAA Issues its Seasonal Outlook. But this month, JAMSTEC was very early so I thought I would share it with everyone now. NOAA calls their predictions an outlook but JAMSTEC calls their predictions a forecast. You need a scorecard. I am going to show their forecasts by month and by season and some of the indices they use in their model. They make world forecasts and for any readers who do not realize it, the U.S. is part of the world so it is covered by a world forecast. Of the season that includes our monsoon, I will extract and enlarge their forecast for North America.

NOAA Updates their Four-Season Outlook on March 17, 2022

By Sig Silber March 18, 2022weatherNo Comments

Introduction

Today is the third Thursday of the month so right on schedule NOAA has issued their Seasonal Outlook. In this article, I summarize it and provide links that will take the reader to additional maps and discussions that I have not included, but I have included quite a bit in this article. I want to remind everyone that last Thursday NOAA issued their ENSO outlook and that has a lot of influence on their Seasonal Outlook. The Seasonal Outlook generally reflects La Nina conditions initially with no clear indication of when this La Nina will end. There could be triple dip La Nina but that is not the most likely scenario but can not be discounted. Over the next three months, the Southern Tier drought intensifies but there is relief extending to the east. There is fairly good news with respect to the North American Monsoon (NAM).

NOAA Updates the Status of ENSO February 10, 2022

By Sig Silber February 11, 2022weatherNo Comments

On the second Thursday of every month, NOAA issues its analysis of the status of ENSO. This includes determining the Alert System Status. Although the current status remains the same i.e. La Nina Advisory, the forecast has been adjusted somewhat from last month. The forecast calls for the La Nina to continue to fade. The timing is shown in the NOAA discussion and the IRI probability analysis. The Australian Meteorological Service thinks this will happen sooner and I agree. I present some information that suggests that NOAA has the timing wrong and that the transition to ENSO Neutral will occur fairly soon.

The impact of the NOAA forecast for the transition from La Nina to ENSO Neutral will show up next Thursday when NOAA issues its Seasonal Outlook. The NOAA ENSO Status Update provides an advance indication of how the forecast might change. To repeat, I expect the demise of La Nina to occur somewhat sooner than predicted by NOAA. It is not a significant difference. There is a lag between the ENSO state and the impact on U.S. weather. Thus the exact date when a fading La Nina meets the criteria for ENSO Neutral may not be very important in terms of the actual impact on Spring and Summer weather including the North American Monsoon (NAM). We will learn what NOAA thinks next Thursday.