NOAA PDL

This is a somewhat confusing post that appeared in the NOAA Climate Blog which is intended to be informative and also announce a new NOAA website which you can access HERE. But we already know that the oceans are getting warmer due to Global warming. Oceans are three-dimensional. Are surface temperatures important other than the impact on the atmosphere? It is a new website but I think they have publicized it prematurely as it is IMO not fully developed. But it is a good start. They have a long way to go. But the topic is very important.

Here is the definition of a Marine Heat Wave:

“The marine heatwave (MHW) in the forecast is identified when sea surface temperature anomaly (with respect to the 1991-2020 monthly climatology) is above the MHW threshold. MHW thresholds specific to each month of the year are calculated as the 90th percentile of SST anomalies in a 3-month window (for example, for January MHWs, the 90th percentile of all December to February SST anomalies).” [Editor’s note: why 90%? That seems pretty arbitrary to me but it may be appropriate. I did not address the issue of

That is reasonable enough. In the blog article, they show the forecast for September and what it would be if we did not have Global Warming. But the counterfactual only compares the forecast to thirty or so years ago so it is a stretch to call this with and without Global Warming. But it does call attention to the problem of oceans that are warming.

First, we take a look at the current situation:

Then the with and without Global Warming for September of this year.