NOAA Updates it’s December 2022 Outlook on November 30, 2022

December 1, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Wildfire Outlooks Updated at 7:50 pm EST December 1, 2022 (It gradually increases through March but is limited to two areas).

At the end of every month, NOAA updates its Outlook for the following month which in this case is December. They also issue a Drought Outlook for the following month. We are reporting on that this morning.

There have been some significant changes in the Outlook for December and these are addressed in the NOAA Discussion so it is well worth reading. We highlighted some of the important changes within the NOAA Discussion.  Of particular interest is the increased penetration of modified Artic air into the Lower 48 States (CONUS) and wet Pacific air to provide for a wet Northwest extending farther south along the West Coast. We end up with a wet, dry, wet, dry pattern extending NE to SE with a tendency for there to be wet Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.

The CLIMAS Podcast discusses some of the weather transitions we have seen and what may develop as this La Nina finally transitions to ENSO Neutral.

The article includes the Drought Outlook for December. We have also included the current fire incidents (not many) and four months of Wildland Fire Potential Outlooks and also a map showing the year-to-date precipitation in the West. We also provide the Week 2/3 Tropical Outlook for the World.

NOAA Updates their Four-Season Outlook on February 17, 2022

February 18, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Introduction

Today is the third Thursday of the month so right on schedule NOAA has issued their Seasonal Outlook which extends slightly more than a year so I call it a four-season outlook. It also includes what NOAA calls their Early Outlook for the following month which is March and a drought Outlook for the next three months. The maps show where temperature and precipitation will deviate from normal as the existing La Nina weakens and the weather pattern reverts to normal as adjusted to take into account what NOAA calls decadal trends. I include the full NOAA Discussion which supports their predictions. There is no guarantee that the future will unfold exactly as projected by NOAA but having this information which represents both a near-term and fairly long-term Outlook can be very useful.