JAMSTEC Issues their Seasonal Outlook – May 13, 2022

May 14, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Usually, I compare the JAMSTEC forecast with the NOAA forecast after NOAA Issues its Seasonal Outlook. But this month, JAMSTEC was very early so I thought I would share it with everyone now. NOAA calls their predictions an outlook but JAMSTEC calls their predictions a forecast. I am going to show the JAMSTEC forecasts by month and by season and some of the indices they use in their model. They make world forecasts and for any readers who do not realize it, the U.S. is part of the world so it is covered by a world forecast. Of the two seasons that include our monsoon, I will extract the North American forecast from their world forecast and enlarge it.

I like the JAMSTEC forecast because the U.S. is part of the world and our weather is not independent of the worldwide weather pattern. In fact, most of U.S. weather originates in the Pacific Ocean and the Pacific Ocean is where Japan is located. In fact, Japan and the US jointly manage the monitoring system along the Equator that helps predict the phases of ENSO. So one of the reasons I include worldwide forecasts in articles is to encourage the understanding of worldwide weather patterns. It is not that the U.S. does not cooperate with other nations with respect to weather forecasts as it does. But to view weather forecasts on the Internet or TV you would not easily notice that. The U.S. pays hardly any attention to what other meteorological agencies predict.

For those interested in the U.S., the forecast for the Summer Monsoon and the overall placement of the drought is of interest. We will have the NOAA forecast this Thursday and it will be interesting to see the level of agreement or disagreement.

NOAA Updates their Seasonal Outlook on April 21, 2022 – High Level of Uncertainty Near and Longer Term

April 22, 2022Posted inweather2 Comments

Introduction

Today is the third Thursday of the month so right on schedule NOAA has issued what I describe as their Four-Season Outlook. The information released also includes the Early Outlook for the single month of May plus the drought outlook for the next three months.  I summarize the information that was issued and provide links that will take the reader to additional maps. But I have included quite a bit in this article. I want to remind everyone that last Thursday NOAA issued their ENSO outlook and that has a lot of influence on their Seasonal Outlook.  The Seasonal Outlook generally reflects La Nina conditions initially with no clear indication of when this La Nina will end. There could be a triple-dip La Nina but that is not the most likely scenario but certainly can not be discounted. There is fairly good news with respect to the North American Monsoon (NAM).
Because of the high level of uncertainty indicated for the May Outlook, I will provide an update or publish a short addendum when the week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated later today. Sometimes that adds additional clarity. I urge readers to read the discussion that was issued by NOAA with their Outlook maps.

JAMSTEC Issues their Seasonal Outlook based on April 1, 2022 Model Runs

April 17, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Usually, I compare the JAMSTEC forecast with the NOAA forecast after NOAA Issues its Seasonal Outlook. But this month, JAMSTEC was very early so I thought I would share it with everyone now. NOAA calls their predictions an outlook but JAMSTEC calls their predictions a forecast. You need a scorecard. I am going to show their forecasts by month and by season and some of the indices they use in their model. They make world forecasts and for any readers who do not realize it, the U.S. is part of the world so it is covered by a world forecast. Of the season that includes our monsoon, I will extract and enlarge their forecast for North America.

I like the JAMSTEC forecast because the U.S. is part of the world and our weather is not independent of the worldwide weather pattern. In fact, most of U.S. weather originates in the Pacific Ocean and the Pacific Ocean is where Japan is located. In fact, Japan and the US jointly manage the monitoring system along the Equator that helps predict the phases of ENSO. So one of the reasons I include worldwide forecasts in articles is to encourage the understanding of worldwide weather patterns. It is not that the U.S. does not cooperate with other nations with respect to weather forecasts as it does. But to view weather forecasts on the Internet or TV you would not easily notice that.

NOAA Updates their Four-Season Outlook on March 17, 2022

March 18, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Introduction

Today is the third Thursday of the month so right on schedule NOAA has issued their Seasonal Outlook. In this article, I summarize it and provide links that will take the reader to additional maps and discussions that I have not included, but I have included quite a bit in this article. I want to remind everyone that last Thursday NOAA issued their ENSO outlook and that has a lot of influence on their Seasonal Outlook.  The Seasonal Outlook generally reflects La Nina conditions initially with no clear indication of when this La Nina will end. There could be triple dip La Nina but that is not the most likely scenario but can not be discounted. Over the next three months, the Southern Tier drought intensifies but there is relief extending to the east. There is fairly good news with respect to the North American Monsoon (NAM).

NOAA Updates the Status of ENSO February 10, 2022

February 11, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

On the second Thursday of every month, NOAA issues its analysis of the status of ENSO. This includes determining the Alert System Status. Although the current status remains the same i.e.  La Nina Advisory, the forecast has been adjusted somewhat from last month. The forecast calls for the La Nina to continue to fade.  The timing is shown in the NOAA discussion and the IRI probability analysis. The Australian Meteorological Service thinks this will happen sooner and I agree. I present some information that suggests that NOAA has the timing wrong and that the transition to ENSO Neutral will occur fairly soon.

The impact of the NOAA forecast for the transition from La Nina to ENSO Neutral will show up next Thursday when NOAA issues its Seasonal Outlook. The NOAA ENSO Status Update provides an advance indication of how the forecast might change. To repeat, I expect the demise of La Nina to occur somewhat sooner than predicted by NOAA.  It is not a significant difference. There is a lag between the ENSO state and the impact on U.S. weather.  Thus the exact date when a fading La Nina meets the criteria for ENSO Neutral may not be very important in terms of the actual impact on Spring and Summer weather including the North American Monsoon (NAM). We will learn what NOAA thinks next Thursday.