On the second Thursday of every month, NOAA issues its analysis of the status of ENSO. This includes determining the Alert System Status. Although the current status remains the same i.e. La Nina Advisory, the forecast has been adjusted slightly from last month. The forecast had called for the La Nina to continue but weaken during the Summer (which it did not). Then it is forecast to strengthen in the Fall and Winter. The timing is shown in the NOAA discussion and the IRI probability analysis.
It certainly looks like this La Nina will end early in 2023. But there is really no sound scientific basis for this prediction. From Emily Beckers’s post
If La Niña does decay to neutral in January–March 2023, it would be only the 4th time in the 24 La Niña winters we have on record.
Nevertheless, that is what both NOAA and I think will happen. But it could happen a bit earlier or a bit later.
At the end of every month, NOAA updates their Outlook for the following month which in this case is August. They also issue a Drought Outlook for the following month. We are reporting on that tonight.
There have been some significant changes in the Outlook for August and these are addressed in the NOAA Discussion so it is well worth reading. We highlighted some of the important changes within the NOAA Discussion.
Of significant interest is the Drought Outlook for August. It is a big improvement but unfortunately, it probably is a one-month event. We have also included four months of Wildland Fire Potential Outlooks and also a map showing the year-to-date precipitation in the West. We also included a Monsoon related Podcast that is very interesting.
NOAA updates many of their weather outlooks and in many cases issues a discussion with those outlooks. On Fridays, they issue a week 3 – 4 outlook which is farther out than the typical 10-day forecast and the discussion is excellent. So we have decided to issue a weekly special report on Fridays.
When the Week 3-4 Outlook is issued, we have a 28-day view of the future. It is important to recognize that the predictions do not always work out as predicted but in the article, there are links to obtain updated predictions.
It is somewhat surprising that there is as much difference between the first 14 days and the second 14 days of the 28-Day Forecast Period. The North American Monsoon is strong throughout the 28-Day Forecast Period. It is stronger at the beginning and slowly returns towards what is a normal Monsoon. Heat will be a hazard.
Today is the third Thursday of the month so right on schedule NOAA has issued what I describe as their Four-Season Outlook. The information released also includes the Early Outlook for the single month of August plus the weather and drought outlook for the next three months. I present the information issued and try to add context to it. It is quite a challenge for NOAA to address the subsequent month, the subsequent three-month period as well as successive three-month periods for a year or a bit more.
The three-month period Jan/Feb/Mar next year seems to be when the overall precipitation situation improves but for some reason the temperature situation does not and may be worse for several months along parts of the Southern Tier. You can take La Nina out of the forecast, but the warming trend continues. For many parts of CONUS, 2023 will be better than 2022. At least that is what NOAA is predicting right now.
At the end of every month, NOAA updates their Mid-Month Outlook for the following month which in this case is July. They also issue a Drought Outlook for the following month and update the three-month Drought Outlook. We are reporting on that tonight. The updated Outlook is very similar to the Mid-Month Outlook. This is surprising since the Mid-Month Outlook was issued two weeks ago and there usually are more changes in that period of time.
For temperature, the shape and location of the large dry anomaly have changed a bit. The cool anomaly in the Northwest is now slightly larger. For precipitation, the area where an above-average Monsoon is forecasted is a little larger and shifted a bit to include more of New Mexico. there is a new small dry anomaly
We provide partial-month Outlooks for the first 22 days of July which allows us to somewhat assess if the Monthly Outlook is consistent with the partial-month Outlooks and it generally is. But we will not be able to answer that question definitively until the Week 3-4 Outlook is issued tomorrow. We will provide an update at that time.
We also provide enough information for readers to understand any changes from the Mid-Month Outlook and we try to figure out why these changes were made. Many of the changes are explained in the NOAA discussion which is included in the article. The partial-month forecasts that we have provided show how NOAA thinks this will play out as the weather pattern evolves during July.
There is also a discussion of the ENSO condition which is ever so slightly different than what NOAA used to develop the Mid-Month Outlook. But there is a fairly strong signal that this La Nina will end in late winter 2022/2023. The impacts on weather may not be noticed until Spring. But that is just the current forecast and can change.
We have also begun our tropical storm coverage. Yes, it is that time of the year. We are also providing special coverage of the Monsoon by providing the links to those daily updates.
Today is the third Thursday of the month so right on schedule NOAA has issued what I describe as their Four-Season Outlook. The information released also includes the Early Outlook for the single month of July plus the drought outlook for the next three months. I summarize the information issued and provide links to additional maps.
Even though the IRI analysis issued last week seems to show the La Nina will end perhaps a bit sooner than previously forecast, the weather outlooks seem to show weather impacts lasting a month or two longer. Uncertainty in the ENSO forecast introduces greater than usual uncertainty in the Seasonal Outlook. But the decadal trends are strong so we see a lot of that in the longer-term outlooks.
Updated at !:30 am EDT Monday, June 6, 2022 to include the Tropical Storm Alex Tracking Map which mostly now threatens Bermuda on Monday. A near miss rather than a direct hit is expected.
On Tuesday, we discussed the NOAA update of their Outlook for June 2022. We only had 24 days of the short-term outlooks at that time so I decided to publish the Weeks 3 – 4 Outlook when it was issued which was today. It is always issued on a Friday. This combined with the discussion issued with the Outlook provides additional insight into how June weather will evolve.
The Weeks 3 and 4 Outlook just released and the precipitation Outlook (it remains an experimental product of NOAA), seems to confirm the Outlook for the Month of June with the possible exception that parts of the Southwest may be impacted by an Easterly Wave (from tropical activity) and an early onset of the North American Monsoon (NAM).
There has been a large change in the weather outlook for June from NOAA.
At the end of every month, NOAA updates their Early Outlook for the following month which in this case is June. They also issue a Drought Outlook for the following month and update the three-month Drought Outlook. We are reporting on that tonight. The updated Outlook is quite different from the Early Outlook which NOAA now calls the Mid-Month Outlook. For temperature, the above-normal area is smaller than the Mid-Month Outlook and a large intrusion of colder air is expected along much of the Northern Tier. The drier than normal area is significantly reduced from the Mid-Month Outlook and shifted a bit and there are two additional areas of wetter than normal in the Outlook.
We provide partial-month outlooks for the first 24 days of June which allows us to somewhat assess if the Monthly Outlook is consistent with the partial month forecasts and it generally is. But we will not be able to answer that question definitively until the Week 3-4 Outlook is issued on Friday.
We also provide enough information for readers to understand any changes from the Mid-Month Outlook and we try to figure out why these changes were made. Many of the changes are explained in the NOAA discussion which is included in the article. The partial-month forecasts that we have provided show how NOAA thinks this will play out as the weather pattern evolves during June.
There is also a discussion of the ENSO condition which is slightly different than what NOAA used to develop the Mid-Month Outlook. The Negative Arctic Oscillation (AO) expected in the first half of June is a major factor.
We have also begun our tropical storm coverage. Yes, it is that time of the year.
Today is the third Thursday of the month so right on schedule NOAA has issued what I describe as their Four-Season Outlook. The information released also includes the Early Outlook for the single month of June plus the drought outlook for the next three months. I summarize the information issued and provide links to additional maps. Additionally, I have included quite a bit in this article. I want to remind everyone that last Thursday NOAA issued their ENSO outlook and that has a lot of influence on their Seasonal Outlook. The Seasonal Outlook generally reflects La Nina conditions initially with no clear indication of when this La Nina will end. There could be a triple-dip La Nina. That is not the most likely scenario but certainly can not be discounted. There is fairly good news with respect to the North American Monsoon (NAM).
The exact location of the Drought seems to be shifting a bit especially after this Summer. See the set of twelve overlapping three-month maps and my comments for details.