NOAA Updates its Mid-month Outlook for June, 2024 -Posted on June 1, 2024

June 1, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

At the end of every month, NOAA updates its Outlook for the following month which in this case is June of 2024. We are reporting on that tonight.

There have been some significant changes in the Outlook for June and these are addressed in the NOAA Discussion so it is well worth reading.  We provided the prior Mid-Month Outlook for June for comparison. It is easy to see the changes by comparing the Mid-Month and Updated Maps.

The article includes the Drought Outlook for June. NOAA also adjusted the previously issued Seasonal (JJA) Drought Outlook to reflect the changes in the June Drought Outlook. We have included a map showing the water-year-to-date precipitation in the Western States. We also provide the Week 2/3 Tropical Outlook for the World.  We also include a very interesting ENSO Blog Post.

The best way to understand the updated outlook for June is to view the maps and read the NOAA discussion. I have highlighted the key statements in the NOAA Discussion.

I am going to start with graphics that show the updated Outlook for June and the Mid-Month Outlook for June. This is followed by a graphic that shows both the Updated Outlook for June and the previously issued three-month outlook for JJA 2024. So you get the full picture in three graphics.

Here is the updated Outlook for June 2024.

For Comparison Purposes, Here is the earlier Mid-Month Outlook for June.

It is important to remember that the maps show deviations from the current definition of normal which is the period 1991 through 2020.  So this is not a forecast of the absolute value of temperature or precipitation but the change from what is defined as normal or to use the technical term climatology.

It is a substantial change from what was issued on May 16, 2024. Remember, it is the first set of maps that are the current outlook for June.  One expects some changes  15 days later. However, the changes to the June Outlook are significant.  This then gives us some reason to question the (May 16, 2024) three-month JJA temperature and precipitation Outlooks which are shown in the following graphic.

NOAA provided a combination of the Updated Outlook for June and the Three-Month Outlook.

The top pair of maps are again the Updated Outlook for the new month. There is a temperature map and a precipitation map. The bottom row shows the three-month outlooks which include the new month. I think the outlook maps are self-explanatory.

To the extent that one can rely on a forecast, we would conclude that July and August will be very different than June, especially for temperature. You can basically subtract June, the three-month Outlook and divide by two to get a combined July-August Outlook.

However given the major change in the new June outlook from what was issued on May 16,  2024, we might not trust the Seasonal Outlook issued on May 16, 2024. Something to think about.

Some readers may need to click “Read More” to read the rest of the article.  Some will feel that they have enough information. But there is a lot more information in the rest of this article.