JAMSTEC Archives - EconCurrents

Our Report on the JAMSTEC Three-Season Forecast – Can be Compared to the NOAA Outlook – Posted on July 20, 2024

By Sig Silber July 20, 2024weatherNo Comments

The Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, or JAMSTEC, is a Japanese national research institute for marine-earth science and technology

From the JAMSTEC Discussion:

“The latest observations indicate that there are weak signs of a La Niña. The SINTEX-F ensemble mean predicts that a La Niña Modoki will develop in the boreal autumn and persist into the boreal winter. However, there is a large uncertainty in the timing and amplitude of the event.”

Although it is a World forecast, it includes a forecast for North America since North America is part of the World. One might try to compare it to the NOAA Outlook we published yesterday which can be accessed HERE.

First, we take a look at the forecasted sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA). JAMSTEC starts by forecasting the SSTA and Nino 3.4 Index on the first day of the month and from there it usually takes their models about two weeks to produce their seasonal forecast. I received it from JAMSTEC on May 14 close to when NOAA issued their Seasonal Update this month. The JAMSTEC model runs are based on conditions as of July 1, 2024. The NOAA Seasonal Outlook is based on conditions closer to the time when it was issued.

We do not have a full three-season forecast from JAMSTEC this month. We have forecast maps for ASO, SON and DJF so it is really a seven-month forecast as ASO and SON overlap a lot. For each of these three-month Outlooks, I also show the corresponding NOAA Outlook. The two are remarkably similar which is very unusual.

We also have single-month forecasts for August, September, and October 2024. I have a single-month outlook for August from NOAA but not single-month outlooks for September and October I did not show those comparisons.

Let’s take a look.

This shows their forecast of sea surface temperature anomalies at three points in time. Blue is cold and is associated with La Nina if it occurs in the Nino 3.4 measurement areas. You no longer can see the El Nino tongue of warm water extending from Peru to the west in the ASO image but look at that blob of cool (anomaly) water to the west i.e. by this point in time this has Modoki characteristics that impact the Walker circulation. SON and DJF also show La Nina but are increasingly to the west and may not be in the Nino 3.4 measurement area. I have written about that before. It raises questions about the reliability of our current approach to thinking about the ENSO Cycle. This is covered in another article that can be accessed HERE. But JAMSTEC is showing a relatively normal ocean off the coast of much of the U.S. coasts which probably explains their forecast.

Of interest also is the cold water of the West Coast of the U.S. and the warm water between Africa and the north coast of South America which can support tropical storms and hurricanes.

JAMSTEC uses the same definition of Normal (climatology) as NOAA. JAMSTEC does a better job at characterizing La Ninas and El Ninos than NOAA. JAMSTEC provides me with a lot of other information that I do not include in my articles to keep them to a manageable size for readers. That material is the atmospheric pressure patterns.

Some Readers will have to click on “Read More” to read the rest of the article which you need to read to see the forecasts. I can only include a certain amount of material in the lede.

Our Report on the JAMSTEC Three-Season Forecast – Posted on June 22, 2024

By Sig Silber June 22, 2024weatherNo Comments

The Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, or JAMSTEC, is a Japanese national research institute for marine-earth science and technology

From the JAMSTEC Discussion:

“The most recent observations indicate that the El Niño is now almost over, and there are weak signs of a La Niña. The SINTEX-F ensemble mean predicts that a La Niña Modoki will develop in the boreal autumn. However, there is a large uncertainty in the occurrence timing and amplitude.”

First, we take a look at the forecasted sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA). JAMSTEC starts by forecasting the SSTA and Nino 3.4 Index on the first day of the month and from there it usually takes their models about two weeks to produce their seasonal forecast. I received it from JAMSTEC on May 14 close to when NOAA issued their Seasonal Update this month. The JAMSTEC model runs are based on conditions as of June 1, 2024. The NOAA Seasonal Outlook is based on conditions closer to the time when it was issued.

We do not have a full three-season forecast from JAMSTEC this month. We have forecast maps for JAS, SON and DJF so it is really an eight-month forecast as JAS and SON overlap a bit. For each of these three-month Outlooks, I also show the corresponding NOAA Outlook. The two are remarkably similar which is very unusual.

We also have single-month forecasts for July, August and September 2024. I have a single-month outlook for July from NOAA but not single-month outlooks for August and September so I did not show those comparisons.

Let’s take a look.

This shows their forecast of sea surface temperature anomalies at three points in time. Blue is cold and is associated with La Nina if it occurs in the Nino 3.4 measurement areas. You no longer can see the El Nino tongue of warm water extending from Peru to the west in the JAS image but look at that blob of cool (anomaly) water to the west i.e. by this point in time this has Modoki characteristics that impact the Walker circulation. SON and DJF also show La Nina but are increasingly to the west and may not be in the Nino 3.4 measurement area. I have written about that before. It raises questions about the reliability of our current approach to thinking about the ENSO Cycle. This is covered in another article that can be accessed HERE. But JAMSTEC is showing a relatively normal ocean off the coast of much of the U.S. coasts which probably explains their forecast.

Of interest also is the cold water of the West Coast of the U.S. and the warm water between Africa and the north coast of South America.

Some Readers will have to click on “Read More” to read the rest of the article which you need to read to see the forecasts. I can only include a certain amount of material in the lede.

Our Report on the JAMSTEC Three-Season Forecast – Posted on February 17, 2024

By Sig Silber February 17, 2024weatherNo Comments

The Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, or JAMSTEC, is a Japanese national research institute for marine-earth science and technology

From the JAMSTEC Discussion:

“The recent observation suggests that the El Niño started to decay. The SINTEX-F ensemble mean predicts that the El Niño will decay and an El Niño Modoki will develop and persist at least until the next boreal spring. The model also predicts that a La Niña Modoki will occur in the boreal summer. However, there is a large uncertainty in the predicted amplitude.”

First, we take a look at the forecasted sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA). JAMSTEC starts by forecasting the SSTA and Nino 3.4 Index on the first day of the month and from there it usually takes their models about two weeks to produce their seasonal forecast. I received it from JAMSTEC on February 15 the same day as NOAA issued their Seasonal Update this month. The JAMSTEC model runs are based on conditions as of February 1, 2024. The NOAA Seasonal Outlook is based on conditions closer to the time when it is issued.

We have a full three-season forecast from JAMSTEC this month. We also have single-month forecasts for March, April and May 2024.

Let’s take a look.

This shows their forecast of sea surface temperature anomalies at three points in time. Red is warm and is associated with El Nino if it occurs in the Nino 3.4 measurement areas. You can see the El Nino tongue of warm water extending from Peru to the west in the MAM image but look at that blob of warm water to the west i.e. by this point in time this has Modoki characteristics which impact the Walker circulation. JJA and SON show ENSO Neutral or La Nina.

JAMSTEC (and also NOAA) are showing very warm oceans in many parts of the world. I have written about that before. It raises questions about the reliability of our current approach to thinking about the ENSO Cycle. This is covered in another article that can be accessed HERE. But JAMSTEC is showing a relatively normal ocean off the coast of much of the U.S. which probably explains their strange forecast.

JAMSTEC has been having some computational issues with its model. From the email I received from them: “Because of changes to the library in our computer, this time we could not complete all members”. Two months ago they were not able to publish at all. I do not know how to assess their message to me. In November they upgraded their model from 12 members to 36. Their goal is to go to 108. On the website, the images indicate that all members were included. It is not possible to accurately estimate the current conditions. So the technique in ensemble models is to perturb the assumptions slightly for multiple model runs (or use different physics models for some runs) and take the average (mean) of the solutions. Each solution is called a member of the group of solutions for which the mean was taken. I am intrigued by the coincidence of this “change to the library in our computer” with their publication of this article. Based on the Japanese Culture they would not have released this forecast if they did not have confidence in it.

Some Readers will have to click on “Read More” to read the rest of the article which you need to read to see the forecasts. I can only include a certain amount of material in the lede.

Our Report on the JAMSTEC Three-Season Forecast – Posted on January 17, 2024

By Sig Silber January 17, 2024weatherNo Comments

The Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, or JAMSTEC, is a Japanese national research institute for marine-earth science and technology

From the JAMSTEC Discussion:

“The recent observation suggests that the El Niño reached its peak. The SINTEX-F ensemble mean predicts that the El Niño will decay and an El Niño Modoki will develop and persist at least until the next boreal spring. The model also predicts that a La Niña Modoki will occur in boreal autumn. However, there is a large uncertainty in the predicted amplitude.”

Although it is a World forecast, it includes a forecast for North America since North America is part of the World.

First, we take a look at the forecasted sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA). JAMSTEC starts by forecasting the SSTA and Nino 3.4 Index on the first day of the month and from there it usually takes their models about two weeks to produce their seasonal forecast. I received it from JAMSTEC on January 10, 2024 which is a week before when NOAA will issue their Seasonal Update this month but I had so many articles to publish that I did not publish this JAMSTEC forecast immediately. The JAMSTEC model runs are based on conditions as of January 1, 2024. The NOAA Seasonal Outlook will be based on conditions closer to the time when it is issued.

We have a full three-season forecast from JAMSTEC this month. We also have single-month forecasts for February, March and April 2024.

Let’s take a look.

JAMSTEC has been having some computational issues with its model. From the email I received from them: “Because of changes to the library in our computer, this time we could not complete all members”. Last month they were not able to publish at all. I do not know how to assess their message to me. In November they upgraded their model from 12 members to 36. Their goal is to go to 108. On the website, the images indicate that all members were included. It is not possible to accurately estimate the current conditions. So the technique in ensemble models is to perturb the assumptions slightly for multiple model runs (or use different physics models for some runs) and take the average (mean) of the solutions. Each solution is called a member of the group of solutions for which the mean was taken. I am intrigued by the coincidence of this “change to the library in our computer” with their publication of this article. Based on the Japanese Culture they would not have released this forecast if they did not have confidence in it.

Some Readers will have to click on “Read More” to read the rest of the article which you need to read to see the forecasts. I can only include a certain amount of material in the lede.

NOAA Updates its ENSO Alert on January 11, 2024 – The El Nino Advisory Continues. Disagreement on When it Will End

By Sig Silber January 12, 2024weatherNo Comments

On the second Thursday of every month, NOAA (really their Climate Prediction Center CPC) issues its analysis of the status of ENSO. This includes determining the Alert System Status. NOAA again describes their conclusion as “ENSO Alert System Status: El Nino Advisory”

There is not much doubt that we have an El Nino. How long it lasts and its strength remains to be seen. This El Nino has not become a Historical El Nino. We will try to address the slight confusion of when the El Nino will end in this article.

We have included some very interesting graphics from and a link to an interesting ENSO Blog article by Emily Becker.

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER ENSO DISCUSSION

The second paragraph is what is important:

“The most recent IRI plume indicates El Niño will gradually weaken and then transition to ENSO-neutral during spring 2024 . Some state-of the-art dynamical climate models suggest a transition to ENSO-neutral as soon as March-May 2024. The forecast team, however, delays this timing and strongly favors a transition to ENSO-neutral in April-June 2024. There are also increasing odds of La Niña in the seasons following a shift to ENSO-neutral. It is typical for El Niño to peak in December/early January, but despite weakening, its impacts on the United States could last through April (see CPC seasonal outlooks for probabilities of temperature and precipitation). In summary, El Niño is expected to continue for the next several seasons, with ENSO-neutral favored during April-June 2024 (73% chance).

Below is the middle paragraph from the discussion last month.

” The most recent IRI plume favors El Niño to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2023-24. Based on the latest forecasts, there is now a 54% chance of a “historically strong” El Niño during the November-January season (³ 2.0°C in Niño-3.4). An event of this strength would potentially be in the top 5 of El Niño events since 1950. While stronger El Niño events increase the likelihood of El Niño-related climate anomalies, it does not imply expected impacts will emerge in all locations or be of strong intensity (see CPC seasonal outlooks for probabilities of temperature and precipitation). In summary, El Niño is expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter, with a transition to ENSO-neutral favored during April-June 2024 (60% chance;).”

We now provide additional detail. The level of uncertainty with respect to how this El Nino will play out has increased quite a bit.

CPC Probability Distribution

Here are the new forecast probabilities. The probabilities are for three-month periods e.g. DJF stands for December/January/February.

Here is the current release of the probabilities:

This chart shows the forecasted progression of the evolution of ENSO from the current El Nino State to Neutral and by the summer to La Nina.

Here is the forecast from late last month.

The analysis this month and last month are different. This month the probability of El Nino in MAM is much less than was expected last month. That is important.

Our Report on the JAMSTEC Three-Season Weather Forecast – October 21, 2023

By Sig Silber October 21, 2023weatherNo Comments

The Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, or JAMSTEC, is a Japanese national research institute for marine-earth science and technology

From the JAMSTEC Discussion:

As predicted, the recent observation confirms further development of the El Niño. The SINTEX-F ensemble mean predicts that the El Niño will reach its peak in the boreal winter and persist at least until the next boreal spring. However, there is a large uncertainty in the predicted amplitude.

Although it is a World forecast, it includes a forecast for North America since North America is part of the World. The JAMSTEC discussion does not address it but the maps show the U.S. being an area that has a lot of area that is not warmer than Climatology which I interpret as a fairly cold winter but surprisingly dry in the Southwest.

First, we take a look at the forecasted sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA). JAMSTEC starts by forecasting the SSTA and Nino 3.4 Index on the first day of the month and from there it usually takes their models about two weeks to produce their seasonal forecast. I received it from JAMSTEC on October 20, 2023 which is when NOAA issued their Seasonal Update. The JAMSTEC model runs are based on conditions as of October 1, 2023. The NOAA Seasonal Outlook was based on conditions closer to the time when it is issued.

We do not have a three-season forecast from JAMSTEC this month. We have three forecasts but the first covers NDJ and the second covers DJF so they are just a month apart. This is because JAMSTEC prefers to work with the Meteorological Seasons so we have Winter and Spring and the first map which is one month of Autumn with two months of winter so they are very similar.

One might question their winter forecast for the Southwest but it is somewhat consistent with the below.

JAMSTEC (and also NOAA) are showing very warm oceans. I have written about that before. It raises questions about the reliability of our current approach to thinking about the ENSO Cycle. This is covered in another article that can be accessed HERE. But JAMSTEC is showing a relatively normal ocean off the coast of much of the U.S. which probably explains their strange forecast.

JAMSTEC uses the same definition of Normal (climatology as NOAA). They do a better job at characterizing La Ninas and El Ninos than NOAA. JAMSTEC provides me with a lot of other information that I do not include in my articles to keep them to a manageable size for readers.

Our Report on the JAMSTEC Three-Season Weather Forecast – August 26, 2023

By Sig Silber August 26, 2023weatherNo Comments

The Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, or JAMSTEC, is a Japanese national research institute for marine-earth science and technology

From the JAMSTEC Discussion:

As predicted, the recent observation confirms the development of the El Niño. The SINTEX-F ensemble mean predicts that the El Niño will reach its peak in the boreal autumn and persist at least until the next boreal spring. However, there is a large uncertainty in the predicted amplitude.

Although it is a World forecast, it includes a forecast for North America since North America is part of the World.

First, we take a look at the forecasted sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA). JAMSTEC starts by forecasting the SSTA and Nino 3.4 Index on the first day of the month and from there it usually takes their models about two weeks to produce their seasonal forecast. I received it from JAMSTEC on August 22, 2023 which was later than usual. That is important because the model runs are based on conditions as of August 1.

Both NOAA and JAMSTEC are showing very warm oceans. I have written about that before. It raises questions about the reliability of our current approach to thinking about the ENSO Cycle. This is covered in another article that can be accessed HERE.

Then we look at three forecasts. JAMSTEC tries to work with meteorological seasons and this month it lines up perfectly and we have three full-season forecasts.

Now we look at the three seasonal forecasts.

The above covers September/October/November (SON 2023) also known as meteorological Autumn.

Here is the interpretation from the JAMSTEC Discussion shown in the body of the article:

“The SINTEX-F predicts that most parts of the globe will experience a hotter-than-normal condition in the boreal autumn (austral spring). The Arctic region will experience extremely hotter-than-normal conditions. ”

“As regards the rainfall in the boreal autumn (austral spring), a drier-than-normal condition is predicted for some parts of the U.S.A., Hawaii, the northern part of the South American continent, eastern Australia, Uganda, Tanzania, Indonesia, some parts of Indochina, and the Philippines. In contrast, southern Alaska, the Caribbean, La Plata, some parts of India, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bhutan, central and western Africa, the Horn of Africa, and some parts of East Asia will experience a wetter-than-normal condition. In particular, we notice that Indonesia and eastern Australia may experience extremely drier than normal conditions, owing to a combination of the positive Indian Ocean Dipole and the El Niño. ”

“The model predicts that most of Japan will be warmer than normal in the autumn. The model also predicts that western Japan will be wetter than normal in the autumn.”

The above covers December/January/February (DJF 2023-2024) which is meteorological Winter.

Here is the interpretation from the JAMSTEC Discussion shown below:

“The model also predicts a similar condition (to autumn) in the boreal winter (austral summer).

“In the boreal winter (austral summer), a drier-than-normal condition is predicted for the western coastal areas of Canada and the northern U.S.A., Hawaii, Brazil, some parts of the South American continent, northern Australia, the Philippines, and southern Africa. In contrast, Alaska, some parts of the U.S.A., some parts of La Plata, central and eastern Africa, Madagascar, some parts of Central and East Asia, and some parts of Indonesia will experience a wetter-than-normal condition.”

“The model predicts that most of Japan will be warmer than normal in the winter. The model also predicts that western Japan will be wetter than normal in the winter.”

And above, March/April/May (MAM) 2024 is meteorological Spring. JAMSTEC does not provide its interpretation of its third season but one can observe it on the maps.

Our Report on the JAMSTEC Three-Season Forecast – July 16, 2023

By Sig Silber July 16, 2023weatherNo Comments

The Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, or JAMSTEC, is a Japanese national research institute for marine-earth science and technology

From the JAMSTEC Discussion:

As predicted, the recent observation confirms the development of the El Niño. The SINTEX-F ensemble mean predicts that the El Niño will reach the peak in August and persist at least until the next boreal spring. However, there is a large uncertainty in the predicted amplitude.

Although it is a World forecast, it includes a forecast for North America since North America is part of the World.

First, we take a look at the forecasted sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA). JAMSTEC starts by forecasting the SSTA and Nino 3.4 Index on the first day of the month and from there it takes their models about two weeks to produce their seasonal forecast. I received it from JAMSTEC on July 13, 2023.

This shows their forecast of sea surface temperature anomalies at three points in time. Red is warm and is associated with El Nino. You can see the El Nino tongue of warm water extending from Peru to the west in all three time periods. It seems to be stronger in the 1st and 2nd time periods. The warmest water shifts west in the third period exhibiting Modoki characteristics. [I have similar information on their SSTA projections from NOAA but I usually do not include it in the article I write on the NOAA Seasonal Outlook because they do not seem to focus on it and their information does not extend as far into the future as does the information from JAMSTEC]. It is hard to find any blue in this set of forecasts but there is a bit of blue off of Baja California which is interesting. JAMSTEC uses the same definition of Normal (climatology as NOAA). They do a better job at characterizing La Ninas and El Ninos than NOAA. JAMSTEC provides me with a lot of other information that I do not include in my articles to keep them to a manageable size for readers. Yesterday we published the NOAA ENSO Advisory and our article can be accessed HERE. In that article, Emily Becker commented on the generally warm oceans and how this may make predicting the strength and duration of an El Nino difficult.

Then we look at three forecasts. JAMSTEC tries to work with meteorological seasons and this month it does not line up perfectly. This means we do not have three full seasons of forecasts this month because the first three-month period overlaps the second one. ASO is one month of meteorological summer and two months of Autumn and SON is autumn. So we really have autumn and winter (DJF) with a forecast that is the transition to autumn.

Our Report on the JAMSTEC Three-Season Forecast – June 16, 2023

By Sig Silber June 16, 2023weatherNo Comments

The Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, or JAMSTEC, is a Japanese national research institute for marine-earth science and technology

From the JAMSTEC Discussion:

“As predicted, the recent observation confirms the occurrence of an El Niño. The SINTEX-F ensemble mean predicts that the El Niño will continue to develop in June–July, mature in August, and persist at least until the next boreal spring.” [JAMSTEC predicts an El Nino that is weaker than forecast by NOAA and most other Meteorological Agencies]

Although it is a World forecast, it includes a forecast for North America since North America is part of the World.

Our Report on the JAMSTEC Three-Season Forecast – May 15, 2023

By Sig Silber May 15, 2023weatherNo Comments

The Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, or JAMSTEC, is a Japanese national research institute for marine-earth science and technology

From the JAMSTEC Discussion:

“Observation shows that the La Niña Modoki-like state persists. The SINTEX-F ensemble mean predicts that an El Niño will occur in June. However, there is a large uncertainty in the predictions of the amplitude, and the ensemble mean of the SINTEX-F2-3DVAR version predicts a relatively weak El Niño.” [This puts JAMSTEC in disagreement with NOAA and most other Meteorological Agencies]

Although it is a World forecast, it includes a forecast for North America since North America is part of the World.