Our Report on the JAMSTEC Three-Season Forecast – March 24, 2023

March 24, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 6:53 p.m. EDT March 24, 2023 to provide additional information on the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)

The Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, or JAMSTEC, is a Japanese national research institute for marine-earth science and technology

From the JAMSTEC Discussion:

Observation shows that the La Niña decayed and a La Niña Modoki-like state has appeared. The SINTEX-F ensemble mean predicts that an El Niño will occur in May. However, there is a large uncertainty in the predictions of the amplitude, and the ensemble mean of the SINTEX-F2-3DVAR version predicts a relatively weak El Niño.

Although it is a World forecast, it includes a forecast for North America since North America is part of the World.

NOAA Updates it’s ENSO Forecast on March 9, 2023 – Leaving La Nina Say Hello to ENSO Neutral – But Maybe Not for Long

March 10, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

On the second Thursday of every month, NOAA issues its analysis of the status of ENSO. This includes determining the Alert System Status.  NOAA describes their Report as “ENSO Alert System Status: Final La Niña Advisory”

If you read the fine print you can see that we are still in the transition. We have left La Niña but are not fully into ENSO Neutral. The rules seem to be that when you no longer meet the criteria for La Nina or El Nino, you are in ENSO Neutral even if the atmosphere has not fully transitioned to ENSO Neutral. This makes a lot of sense since in general, the atmosphere reacts to the ocean conditions rather than the ocean reacting to the atmosphere but it is not as clear cut as what I have just stated. But typically the reaction of the atmosphere lags the change in the ocean condition and the change in the atmosphere confirms that the change in the ocean will impact weather patterns.

Some of the models suggest a rapid change to El Nino during or after the Summer. It seems likely that the ENSO Neutral Phase will at the very least have an El Nino bias.

We have published a shorter version of our usual article since there is little disagreement that we are transitioning away from La Nina. It is also a bit too early to be confident that we will have an El Nino next winter. We need to get past the Spring Prediction Barrier (SPB) to be confident about having an El Nino soon.

The article includes a very interesting post from the ENSO Blog. It is worth reading. Among other things, it discusses the situation off of Peru which might increase the chances for an El Nino but it also is a warning as to some potentially problematic weather conditions for Peru.

Our Report on the JAMSTEC Three-Season Forecast – February 20, 2023

February 20, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

The Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, or JAMSTEC, is a Japanese national research institute for marine-earth science and technology

From the JAMSTEC Discussion:

“The SINTEX-F ensemble mean predicts that the La Niña-like state will gradually decay and an El Niño will occur in May. However, there is a large uncertainty in the predictions of the amplitude. In particular, the ensemble mean of the SINTEX-F2-3DVAR version predicts a relatively weak El Niño.”

Although it is a World forecast, it includes a forecast for North America since North America is part of the World.

NOAA Updates it’s ENSO Outlook on December 8, 2022

December 9, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 3:45 p.m. December 9, 2022 to complete certain edits that were not completed at the time this article was published. They add a little more clarity to the discussion.

On the second Thursday of every month, NOAA issues its analysis of the status of ENSO. This includes determining the Alert System Status. Although the current status remains the same i.e.  La Nina Advisory, the forecast has again been adjusted slightly from the prior month. There is some disagreement on when this La Nina will end with the best guess being perhaps March. But some meteorological agencies believe it could be sooner than that.

But I have actually seen only a few signs of it starting to happen. But all the meteorologists agree that it will.  Could they all be wrong? Probably not.

Will this La Nina transition quickly to the El Nino phase? That would be unusual but some of the models suggest this will happen.

NOAA Updates it’s November 2022 ENSO Outlook

November 14, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

On the second Thursday of every month, NOAA issues its analysis of the status of ENSO. This includes determining the Alert System Status. Although the current status remains the same i.e.  La Nina Advisory, the forecast has again been adjusted slightly from the prior month. There is some disagreement on when this La Nina will end with the best guess being perhaps March.

But I have actually seen only a few signs of it starting to happen. But all the meteorologists agree that it will.  Could they all be wrong? Probably not.

NOAA Updates it’s October 2022 ENSO Outlook

October 16, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

On the second Thursday of every month, NOAA issues its analysis of the status of ENSO. This includes determining the Alert System Status. Although the current status remains the same i.e.  La Nina Advisory, the forecast has again been adjusted slightly from the prior month. The IRI analysis suggests it could be slightly later than it appeared last month. Also, the probability that it will extend into the winter is much higher. So what I anticipated as being a three-peat now looks to be a certainty. There is some disagreement on when this La Nina will end with the best guess being perhaps February or March.

But I actually see no sign of it starting to happen. But all the meteorologists agree that it will.  Could they all be wrong?

I also include some interesting graphics that show the impact of the combination of La Nina and what NOAA calls “trend” which is a combination of Global Warming and long cycles.  I find them interesting. The IOD is about over so the weather in the  Indian Ocean should return to something more like normal. The three phases of ENSO basically impact the entire world. It does appear that this third La Nina winter may be quite different from last year. But I will address that when NOAA issues their Seasonal Outlook for the U.S. and when I publish the JAMSTEC world outlook which I already have and I will probably publish it very soon.

JAMSTEC Issues their Three-Season Forecast based on September 1, 2022 ENSO Conditions

September 18, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here comes El Nino – is that possible?

JAMSTEC is predicting a more rapid demise of La Nina and a rapid onset of El Nino conditions. Thus we should expect their forecast to differ dramatically from the NOAA forecast.  Is it reasonable to predict a rapid change to El Nino? It is certainly possible. But it is not the majority opinion. Certainly, three La Ninas in a row build up the warm water in the IndoPacific Warm Pool. So I am presenting the JAMSTEC forecast as an alternative perspective.

I am going to first show the JAMSTEC forecasts by month and then by season. I will also show two of the indices they use in their model. One of those indices relates to the Indian Ocean Dipole which will also be discussed.

NOAA Updates its ENSO Analysis on September 8, 2022 – La Nina will probably end soon.

September 11, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

On the second Thursday of every month, NOAA issues its analysis of the status of ENSO. This includes determining the Alert System Status. Although the current status remains the same i.e.  La Nina Advisory, the forecast has been adjusted slightly from last month. The IRI analysis suggests it could be slightly later than it appeared last month. Also, the probability that it will extend into the winter is much higher. So what I anticipated as being a three-peat looks to be a reality. But in theory, things could change.

Nevertheless, that is what both NOAA and I think will happen. But it could happen a bit earlier or a bit later.

I provided a small sample of model runs by a number of different meteorological agencies that is  presented by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) and they suggest that maybe we will be in ENSO Neutral in January or February rather than March as NOAA seems to be thinking. NOAA is placing more weight on the statistical rather than dynamic models but statistics requires data and there have not been a lot of similar situations but what data there is suggests March is more likely than January or February. But perhaps this La Nina will continue beyond March. Maybe it will continue for a fourth year.

JAMSTEC Issues their Three-Season World Forecast based on August 1 ENSO Conditions.

August 23, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Usually, I compare the JAMSTEC forecast with the NOAA forecast after NOAA Issues its Seasonal Outlook. But this month, JAMSTEC was very early so I thought I would share it with everyone early. But I did not get around to doing it until now. NOAA calls their predictions an outlook but JAMSTEC calls their predictions a forecast. I am going to show the JAMSTEC forecasts by month and by season and some of the indices they use in their model. They make world forecasts and for any readers who do not realize it, the U.S. is part of the world so it is covered by a world forecast.

I like the JAMSTEC forecast because the U.S. is part of the world and our weather is not independent of the worldwide weather pattern. In fact, most of U.S. weather originates in the Pacific Ocean and the Pacific Ocean is where Japan is located. In fact, Japan and the US jointly manage the monitoring system along the Equator that helps predict the phases of ENSO. So one of the reasons I include worldwide forecasts in articles is to encourage the understanding of worldwide weather patterns. It is not that the U.S. does not cooperate with other nations with respect to weather forecasts as it does. But to view weather forecasts on the Internet or TV you would not easily notice that. The U.S. media pays hardly any attention to what other meteorological agencies predict.

NOAA Updates its ENSO Analysis on July 14, 2022 – Increasing Chances of a Three-peat

July 15, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

On the second Thursday of every month, NOAA issues its analysis of the status of ENSO. This includes determining the Alert System Status. Although the current status remains the same i.e.  La Nina Advisory, the forecast has been adjusted somewhat from last month. The forecast calls for the La Nina to continue but weaken during the Summer. Then it’s forecast to strengthen again in the Fall and Winter. The timing is shown in the NOAA discussion and the IRI probability analysis.

Of importance, the chances of a Triple Dip La Nina are still difficult to predict but seem to be higher than the estimate last month. I am not exactly sure how you define a Three-Peat. If it has to do with extending into early Winter the odds seem to be a bit higher. This is not likely to change the forecast for Winter but might change the forecast for next Spring. Finally, there is now less disagreement among meteorological agencies as to when this La Nina will end.

So I am referring to it as a Three-peat but it is not over until it is over. So it may not happen but it looks increasing as if it will.