Intermediate-Term Weather Outlook

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Jan 06 2025
Valid 12Z Mon Jan 06 2025 – 12Z Wed Jan 08 2025

…Moderate to heavy snow from the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic through
late Monday night…

…Light rain/freezing rain over parts of the Ohio Valley to the
Mid-Atlantic on Monday...

…There is a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts
of the Southeast on Monday…

A significant storm over the Ohio Valley will move eastward off the
Mid-Atlantic Coast by Monday evening. On Monday, a major disruptive winter
storm will affect the area from the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic,
leading to severe travel delays. The storm will produce moderate to heavy
snow from parts of the Ohio Valley through to the Mid-Atlantic. The snow
will continue into late Monday night over the Mid-Atlantic.

The system will produce 6-12 inches of snow across the Mid-Atlantic,
including the Washington, D.C. metro area. Travelers should anticipate
significant disruptions. An additional 2-4 inches of snow will fall across
portions of the Ohio Valley and Central Appalachians, where travel
disruptions will continue.

Furthermore, light icing/freezing rain will develop over parts of Ohio
Valley to the Mid-Atlantic, ending by Monday evening over the
Mid-Atlantic. Dangerous travel conditions will develop over the region.

Moreover, as the associated front moves across the Southeast, strong to
severe thunderstorms will develop over parts of the region on Monday.
Therefore, the SPC has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Southeast through Tuesday morning. The
hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, isolated tornadoes, and a minimal threat of hail.

In addition, on Monday, light lake-effect snow will be ongoing downwind
from the Great Lakes and upslope snow over parts of the Northeast. In the
wake of the storm, on Tuesday, light to moderate lake-effect snow will
continue downwind from the Great Lakes and into upslope regions of
Northern New England.

Meanwhile, on Monday, upper-level energy over the Northwest will move
southward to Northwestern Mexico by Tuesday night, creating a deep
upper-level trough over the Southwest. The energy will produce coastal
rain and higher-elevation snow over parts of the Pacific Northwest and
Northern California through Monday afternoon. Light snow will continue
over the Northern Intermountain Region, the Great Basin, and the Northern
Rockies by Monday evening.

The light snow will expand into parts of the Central Rockies overnight
Monday and into the Southern Rockies on Tuesday. By Tuesday evening, light
snow will expand into parts of the Central/Southern High Plains. Further,
additional upper-level energy will come onshore over the Pacific Northwest
Tuesday evening into Wednesday. The new energy will create light coastal
rain and higher-elevation snow over parts of the Pacific Northwest.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Jan 05 2025
Valid 12Z Sun Jan 05 2025 – 12Z Tue Jan 07 2025

…Heavy snow from the Central Plains to the Mid-Atlantic through late
Monday night with damaging ice, freezing rain, accumulations…

…0.25 to 0.50 inches of freezing rain over parts of the Middle
Mississippi/Ohio Valley on Sunday and light freezing rain over parts of
the Mid-Atlantic on Monday…

…There is an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms over
parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday…

A significant storm over the Southern Plains will move eastward to the
Mid-Atlantic Coast by Monday evening. On Sunday, a major disruptive winter
storm will affect the area from Kansas to Ohio Valley/Central
Appalachians, leading to severe travel delays. The storm will reach the
Mid-Atlantic region by Sunday evening and continue to impact the area
through Monday. The storm will produce heavy snowfall and wind gusts
exceeding 40 mph, creating blizzard conditions in parts of Kansas and
Missouri. The snow will significantly reduce visibilities, and snowfall
amounts will surpass 15 inches (the heaviest in a decade), which will make
travel extremely hazardous, with impassable roads. Additionally, a band of
8-14 inches of snow is expected to extend from northeast Missouri through
the Central Appalachians, with a few inches of sleet likely in southern
Illinois and Indiana. Travelers should anticipate significant disruptions
along this path.

Furthermore, significant icing/freezing rain will spread from central
Kansas through the Central Appalachians into Monday. Dangerous travel
conditions, widespread tree damage, and prolonged power outages are
expected along this corridor. Some regions may experience ice
accumulations exceeding half an inch.

On Monday, moderate to heavy snow will extend from southern Illinois to
the Mid-Atlantic. In addition, widespread light freezing rain will also
extend from Kentucky to the Mid-Atlantic. The snow will wind down by
Tuesday morning, with light snow over parts of the Central Appalachians.

Furthermore, on Sunday, as the associated front crosses the Southern
Plains and moves into the Lower Mississippi Valley, severe thunderstorms
will develop over parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the
SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms over
parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley through Monday morning. The hazards
associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.

Strong to severe thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Southeast as
the boundary moves into the Southeast on Monday. Therefore, the SPC has
issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of
the Southeast from Monday into Tuesday morning. The hazards associated
with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, a few tornados, and a minimal threat of hail.

Meanwhile, cold air moving over the Great Lakes and upper-level energy
over the Great Lakes and Northeast will create moderate to heavy
lake-effect snow downwind from Lake Ontario through Monday morning. In
addition, light to moderate lake-effect snow will develop downwind from
the Upper Great Lakes and Lake Erie through Tuesday morning.

Furthermore, weak onshore flow and multiple weakening fronts move onshore
over the Northwest. The systems will produce coastal rain and
higher-elevation snow over parts of the Pacific Northwest and Northern
California through Monday afternoon. Light snow will continue over the
Northern Intermountain Region, the Great Basin, and the Northern Rockies
overnight Monday.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Jan 04 2025
Valid 12Z Sat Jan 04 2025 – 12Z Mon Jan 06 2025

…Heavy snow from the Central Plains to the Ohio Valley on Sunday; Heavy
lake-effect snow downwind from Lake Ontario on Saturday…

…Moderate to heavy snow from the Northern High Plains to the Central
Plains on Saturday; 0.25 inches of freezing rain over parts of the Middle
Mississippi/Ohio Valley on Sunday…

…There is an Enhanced Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over
parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday…

On Saturday, low pressure over the Southern High Plains will move eastward
to the Ohio Valley by Monday. The storm will create disruptive winter
weather from Saturday to Monday. The major winter storm will bring
significant disruptions to the Central Plains by late Saturday, spreading
to the Ohio Valley on Sunday. Severe travel delays are likely, with the
storm reaching the Mid-Atlantic by Sunday night into Monday. On Saturday,
the storm will produce moderate to heavy snow from the Northern High
Plains to the Central Plains.

Moreover, widespread heavy snow will accompany the storm. Heavy snowfall
is expected across areas from central Kansas to Ohio, especially along and
north of Interstate 70, with a 60-90% chance of at least 8 inches of snow
on Sunday. For some, this could be the heaviest snowfall in over a decade.
Additionally, moderate to heavy snow will develop over parts of the
northern Mid-Atlantic overnight Sunday into Monday.

In addition, blizzard conditions will develop over the Central Plains.
Wind gusts over 35 mph combined with heavy snow will create blizzard
conditions by Sunday morning. Whiteout conditions will make travel
extremely hazardous, with impassable roads and a high risk of motorists
becoming stranded.

Furthermore, significant icing/freezing rain for Middle Mississippi/Ohio
Valleys. Sleet and freezing rain are expected from eastern Kansas and the
Ozarks to the Ohio Valley. Dangerous travel is anticipated, with tree
damage and power outages likely in areas with over a quarter-inch of ice
accumulation. Overnight Sunday, the storm will produce additional icing in
the Central Appalachians.

On Sunday, as the front crosses the Southern Plains and moves into the
Lower Mississippi Valley, severe thunderstorms will develop over parts of
the Lower Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the SPC has issued an Enhanced
Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Lower
Mississippi Valley from Sunday through Monday morning. The hazards
associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.

Meanwhile, cold air moving over the Great Lakes and upper-level energy
over the Great Lakes and Northeast will create heavy lake-effect snow
downwind from Lake Ontario through Sunday morning. In addition, moderate
lake-effect snow will develop downwind from the Upper Great Lakes and Lake
Erie through Sunday morning. Furthermore, light upslope snow will develop
over parts of the Central Appalachians on Saturday. On Sunday, the
lake-effect snow will become light over most of the Lakes, while moderate
to heavy snow will continue downwind from Lake Ontario. Light to moderate
snow will develop over parts of the Northeast.

Furthermore, weak onshore flow and multiple weakening fronts move onshore
over the Northwest. The system will produce coastal rain and
higher-elevation snow over parts of the Pacific Northwest and Northern
California through Monday.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Jan 03 2025
Valid 12Z Fri Jan 03 2025 – 12Z Sun Jan 05 2025

…Heavy lake-effect snow downwind from Lakes Erie and Ontario; Moderate
to heavy lake-effect snow downwind from the Upper Great Lakes…

… Moderate to heavy snow or the Cascades, Sierra Nevada Mountains, and
the higher elevation of the West; 0.1 inches of freezing rain over parts
of the Central Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley on Saturday…

…Moderate to heavy rain over parts of Pacific Northwest and Northern
California on Friday…

Cold high pressure over the Plains will slowly move eastward to the
Southeast/Central Appalachians by Sunday. The cold air and upper-level
energy over the Great Lakes and Northeast will create heavy lake-effect
snow downwind from Lakes Erie and Ontario through Sunday. In addition,
moderate to heavy lake-effect snow will develop downwind from the Upper
Great Lakes through Sunday, too. Furthermore, moderate to heavy upslope
snow will develop over parts of the Central Appalachians on Friday.

Meanwhile, a front over the Eastern Pacific will move onshore over the
West Coast and move southeastward to the Southern Plains by Sunday.
Moisture associated with the system will produce moderate to heavy rain
over parts of the Pacific Northwest and Northern California on Friday.
Snow will develop over parts of the Cascades, Northern Intermountain
Region, and Northern Rockies. By early afternoon, the boundary will pass
the Northwest and California, rain will change over to snow over the
Southern Cascades into the Sierra Nevada Mountains through Saturday
morning.

A weakening front will move close to the Pacific Northwest Coast by late
Saturday morning and dissipate by Sunday. The system will bring more
coastal rain and higher�elevation snow over parts of the Pacific
Northwest and Northern California through Sunday.

Furthermore, by Saturday afternoon, the lead front will move to the
Southern High Plains and into the Southern Plains by Sunday. The storm
will produce significant wintry weather, with impacts over the Central
Plains by late Saturday and the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Sunday.
Additionally, the storm will create severe travel disruptions.

Moreover, areas in the Central Plains and Central Mississippi Valley,
especially along and north of Interstate 70, are likely to experience
heavy snowfall, with a high chance (60-90 percent) of at least 6 inches of
snow from late Saturday into Sunday. Significant sleet and freezing rain
are anticipated from eastern Kansas and the Ozarks extending eastward to
the Tennessee and lower Ohio Valleys, also on Saturday into Sunday.

Further, rain will develop over parts of the Southern Plains/Lower
Mississippi Valley overnight Saturday, and some areas of showers and
thunderstorms will develop by Sunday morning.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Jan 02 2025
Valid 12Z Thu Jan 02 2025 – 12Z Sat Jan 04 2025

…Long duration lake-effect snow event continues downwind of the Great
Lakes…

…Periods of locally heavy coastal rains and higher elevation snow
continue for much of the northwestern U.S….

…Arctic air surges south from the Northern Plains through the Central
and Eastern U.S….

Strong northwesterly winds on the backside of a departing low pressure
system that is moving into the Canadian maritime will generate moderate to
heavy lake enhanced snow downwind of the Great Lakes over the next few
days. Anywhere between 6-12 inches of snow with isolated higher amounts
may accumulate downwind of the Lakes by Saturday morning. A low pressure
system tracking across the Central U.S. will produce a light swath of
snowfall from Iowa across the Ohio Valley today and into the Central
Appalachians on Friday. Snowfall accumulations of 6-12 inches are possible
over the Central Appalachians.

A series of low pressure systems will generate rain and high elevation
snow across much of the Northwest over the next couple of days. The
moisture plume associated with the first system will be directed at the
northern California coast and Oregon today, where an isolated threat of
Flash Flooding exists. Snow showers continue over the Northern/Central
Rockies. Rain and snow showers expand in coverage across the Northwest on
Friday. Accumulating snow is possible over the highest elevations of the
Cascades, Sierra and Northern Rockies. Heavy rainfall expands into the
upslope areas of the Sierra as the cold front pushes through.

High pressure builds over the Great Plains, sending frigid arctic air down
through the Central and Eastern U.S. through the weekend. Meanwhile, the
West and Southern Plains will experience above average temperatures. There
also continues to be an elevated fire weather threat over parts of
southern California today.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Dec 31 2024
Valid 12Z Tue Dec 31 2024 – 12Z Thu Jan 02 2025

…Cooling trend spreads from West to East this week….

…Fire Weather concerns for portions of southern California and Texas
through mid-week…

Systems moving by the northern Intermountain West bring the promise of
snowy periods in and near western Montana, Idaho, and Wyoming through
Wednesday. The first of those systems moves out into the Midwest, Ohio
Valley, and Northeast, bringing rain and thunderstorms near and to the
cyclone’s east, with thunderstorms most likely across portions of the
Eastern Shore and New Jersey on the afternoon and early evening of New
Year’s Eve. As the cyclone moves through the Northeast on Wednesday, both
Lake Effect and Lake Enhanced snows will spread through the Great Lakes
and into the northern and central Appalachians. Between 6-12 inches of
snow are forecast to accumulate downwind of the Lower Great Lakes by
Thursday morning. Some mixed precipitation is expected across central New
England.

A system arriving from the Great Plains will promote snow showers for the
broader Great Lakes region on Tuesday. A cooling trend started in the
West expands east through the rest of the country over the next couple of
days. Building high pressure across the Great Basin is expected to
increase winds across southern California over the next couple of days,
promoting an increased fire weather risk which could become critical
through mid-week. Wind advisories, a red flag warning, and a fire weather
watch have all been posted for the area as well for parts of south-central
Texas through Tuesday.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Dec 30 2024
Valid 12Z Mon Dec 30 2024 – 12Z Wed Jan 01 2025

…Snow showers likely across parts of the Northern Rockies and
Northern/Central Plains today…

…Much above average temperatures continue for the Central and Eastern
U.S today; cooling trend spreads from West to East this week….

…Critical Fire Weather expected for portions of the Southern High Plains
today...

A surface low pressure system ejecting out of the Rockies into the Plains
will likely produce a swath of snow and strong winds from northern Idaho
down through western Iowa today. Moderate impacts mainly due to blowing
snow are expected across much of Wyoming, the Colorado Rockies, South
Dakota and northwestern Nebraska. Snow over the Northern Rockies could
accumulate between 6-12 inches with isolated higher amounts possible. Snow
and wind should subside across the Northwest tonight as the low pressure
system tracks into the Ohio Valley.

Downstream, another, deeper mid-latitude cyclone will spread showers and
scattered thunderstorms into the Northeast with some light snow showers
possible downwind of the Lower Great Lakes today. The arrival of the
Plains system will promote even more snow showers for the broader Great
Lakes region on Tuesday.

Much above average temperatures are expected to continue across the
Central and Eastern U.S. today ahead of their respective low pressure
systems. Temperatures over south Texas will be especially anomalous with
highs likely between 20-30 degrees above average. Numerous high
temperature records may be tied or broken as a result. Unusually mild
conditions in the Northeast may also tie or break high temperature records
today. A cooling trend ensues across the West today before expanding east
through the rest of the country over the next couple of days. A Critical
Fire Weather area was issued by the Storm Prediction Center for much of
the Southern High Plains for today due to the especially warm temperatures
paired with dry and gusty westerly downslope flow beneath the storm to the
north.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Dec 29 2024
Valid 12Z Sun Dec 29 2024 – 12Z Tue Dec 31 2024

…Atmospheric river to produce heavy rain/snow across much of the
Northwest today…

…Severe Thunderstorms and Excessive Rainfall concerns shift into parts
of the Central/Southern Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic/Southeast today…

…Much above average temperatures continue across the Central and Eastern
U.S.; cooler air moves into the Northwest on Monday…

…Critical Fire Weather expected for portions of the Southern High Plains
on Monday…

An active weather pattern will continue in the northwestern and
southeastern quadrants of the country today. Heavy rain associated with an
atmospheric river event will produce 1-2 inches over coastal areas of
Oregon and northern California, including upslope areas of the northern
Sierra Nevada. Slight Risks of Excessive Rainfall (at least 15%) leading
to Flash Flooding are in effect for portions of southwest Oregon/northwest
California and the northern Sierra today. This wet pattern in the West
could produce rock, mud and land slides over vulnerable soils. Additional
heavy snow is likely over much of the Cascades, Northern/Central Rockies
and Sierra Nevada. Between 1-2 feet of snow (isolated higher) are expected
for parts of the Cascades and Rockies.

Storms associated with a severe weather outbreak that occurred across the
Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley yesterday will spread into
the southeastern U.S. today. Heavy rain and scattered to severe
thunderstorms, capable of producing tornadoes, damaging wind gusts and
hail are possible from the eastern Gulf Coast northward into the
Carolinas, where a Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms (level 2/5) is in
effect. Rain showers will also spread into the Northeast today as well,
while some light wintry precipitation develops over parts of the Lower
Peninsula of Michigan tonight.

Meanwhile, ongoing moderate to heavy rainfall along a narrow axis of low
level convergence may persist into this afternoon over south Florida.
There’s potential for this Marginal Risk (at least 5%) of Excessive
Rainfall to over perform given current conditions.

Much above average temperatures from the Central to Eastern thirds of the
country should persist until Tuesday, while an increasingly trough-y
pattern in the West will promote cooling temperatures beginning on Monday.
Widespread high minimum temperatures may be tied or broken across the
Northeast tonight ahead of a deepening upstream trough and southerly flow
along a strong surface warm front. Dry, windy and mild conditions in the
Southern High Plains will support a Critical Risk of Fire Weather on
Monday.