Intermediate-Term Weather Outlook

It is difficult to find a more comprehensive Weather Outlook anywhere else with the ability to get a local 10-day Forecast also.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
334 AM EST Fri Mar 01 2024

Valid 12Z Fri Mar 01 2024 – 12Z Sun Mar 03 2024

…Winter storm brings heavy higher elevation mountain snow, widespread
damaging winds, and cold temperatures to much of the West…

…Powerful blizzard in the Sierra Nevada through this weekend…

…Widespread showers and thunderstorms across portions of the Southeast
and Mid-Atlantic Friday…

…Much above average, Spring-like temperatures for the Plains and Midwest
once again heading into the weekend; Critical Fire Weather threat for the
central/southern High Plains Saturday...

A significant winter storm will impact much of the West heading into the
weekend, including dangerous, blizzard conditions for the Sierra Nevada.
An upper-level trough over the northeastern Pacific digging slowly
southward and inland over the West Coast will allow for a multi-day influx
of moisture from the Pacific/Atmospheric River as colder air spreads
southward. This will bring heavy snowfall to many of the higher elevation
mountain ranges across the Pacific Northwest, northern/central California,
the northern/central Rockies, and Great Basin, following a general
southward trend each day Friday and Saturday. Snow totals locally as much
as 12″+ are forecast through Sunday morning. In addition, widespread
damaging wind gusts of 55+ mph are forecast across much of the region,
with even stronger gusts of 75+ mph for higher elevations, leading to the
risk of downed trees and power lines. The most intense combination of snow
and wind will come together over the Sierra Nevada, where a powerful
blizzard is expected. Extreme snowfall totals of 5-12 feet (locally even
higher) are forecast through the weekend, with high snow rates and winds
leading to blowing/drifting snow and whiteout conditions, making travel
impossible. For lower elevations, the system will bring moderate to heavy
rainfall to coastal locations, with a mix of light to moderate rain/snow
for interior locations, though any accumulations should remain limited.
Some light snow may spread into portions of the northern High Plains
Saturday as the system continues east. The weather system will also usher
in cooler, below average temperatures, with highs generally in the 30s and
40s for the Pacific Northwest, northern California, northern Rockies, and
Great Basin, with 50s in central California and 60s into southern
California.

To the East, lift ahead of a shortwave moving eastward from the
Mississippi Valley towards the East Coast as well as Gulf moisture flowing
northward over a quasi-stationary boundary draped along the Gulf Coast
will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms across much of the
Southeast Friday. Some locally heavy downpours are possible, especially in
vicinity of the boundary along the central Gulf Coast and along the
Carolina coast. The boundary is forecast to lift northward along the East
Coast as the upper-level shortwave approaches, spreading rain chances into
the Mid-Atlantic overnight Friday and New England during the day Saturday,
with some locally heavy showers most likely once again for coastal
locations in vicinity of the boundary. Showers and storms will also linger
across portions of the coastal Southeast into north Florida and the
Florida Panhandle.

Much above average, Spring-like high temperatures are once again expected
across much of the Plains and Midwest heading into the Weekend. The
greatest anomalies are forecast for the northern Plains Friday and the
central Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley Saturday where highs will
be upwards of 25-35 degrees above normal, reaching into the 60s and 70s.
Elsewhere, highs will be in the 40s and 50s in the Great Lakes. Highs
Saturday will warm into the 60s and 70s for the Middle/Lower Mississippi
Valley, with 80s returning to Texas. The warm temperatures as well as dry
conditions and some gustier winds along the central/southern High Plains
will bring the risk for wildfires this weekend, with the Storm Prediction
Center introducing a Critical Fire Weather outlook (level 2/3) for
Saturday. After a chilly day Friday in the Southeast, with highs generally
in the 40s and 50s, temperatures will quickly warm back up to average to
slightly above average levels Saturday, with highs in the 60s and low 70s.
Temperatures will also rebound for much of New England, warming from the
20s and 30s Friday into the 40s Saturday. Conditions will remain near to
above average in the Mid-Atlantic, with 40s and 50s expected.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Above is a 72 hour animation of the forecast. Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report issued today.

It is difficult to find a more comprehensive Weather Outlook anywhere else with the ability to get a local 10-day Forecast also.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed Feb 28 2024
Valid 12Z Wed Feb 28 2024 – 12Z Fri Mar 01 2024

…Heavy snow over parts of the Cascades, the Northern Intermountain
Region, Northern California, and Sierra Nevada Mountains…

…Light to moderate snow over the Great Lakes, Central Appalachians, and
Northeast…

…Temperatures will be 10 to 25 degrees above average over parts of the
Northeast and Mid-Atlantic…

A second winter storm will impact the West Coast on Wednesday and
Thursday. The second significant winter storm will primarily affect the
Northwest Wednesday and Thursday before significantly impacting the
Northern and Central California mountains Friday.

The storm will create heavy mountain snow that will affect many passes.
Multiple feet of snow are likely (over 80% chance) for higher elevations,
significantly above 5000 feet, including many Cascade and Sierra Nevada
Mountains passes. Extremely heavy snow rates surpassing 3 inches per hour
are possible in these mountain ranges.

Furthermore, the storm will produce blizzard conditions in the Sierra
Nevada Mountains. In detail, strong winds will cause significant blowing
and drifting snow, with whiteout conditions, making travel impossible in
the Sierra Nevada Mountains. There is a high chance (over 70%) of
substantial, long-lasting disruptions to daily life in the higher
elevations of the Sierra Nevada Mountains Friday, where blizzard
conditions and over 5 feet of snow are expected.

Moreover, in addition to the snow, coastal rain will develop over parts of
the Pacific Northwest Wednesday into Friday. Coastal rain will develop
over parts of Northern California overnight Wednesday, continuing into
Friday. The rain moves into Central California on Thursday, continuing
into Friday, and parts of Southern California by Friday morning.

Meanwhile, on Wednesday, a deep low over the Upper Great Lakes will move
northeastward into Eastern Canada by Wednesday evening. The associated
front will move off the East and Gulf Coast by Thursday morning. Ahead of
the front, southerly wind will bring warm temperatures of 10 to 25 degrees
above average over parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic.

On Wednesday, the boundary will create showers and thunderstorms from the
Central Gulf Coast to the Northeast. In the wake of the front, moderate to
heavy snow will develop over the Great Lakes into the Northeast, with
light to moderate snow over the Central Appalachians on Wednesday. In
addition, on Thursday, lake-effect snow will develop downwind from the
Great Lakes, ending by Thursday night.

Elsewhere, upper-level energy moving into the Southwest and Southern
Rockies will produce scattered showers, thunderstorms, and
higher-elevation snow from Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. Overnight
Thursday, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the
Southern Plains, moving into the Lower Mississippi, Tennessee, and
Southern Ohio Valleys and parts of the Southeast.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Above is a 72 hour animation of the forecast. Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report issued today.

It is difficult to find a more comprehensive Weather Outlook anywhere else with the ability to get a local 10-day Forecast also.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Feb 27 2024
Valid 12Z Tue Feb 27 2024 – 12Z Thu Feb 29 2024

…Heavy snow returns over parts of the Cascades, the Northern
Intermountain Region, and Northern Rockies on Wednesday…

…Heavy snow over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley and moderate to
heavy snow over the Cascades to Central Rockies on Tuesday…

…Light to moderate snow over the Great Lakes, Central Appalachians, and
Northeast on Wednesday…

…There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Ohio
Valley/Great Lakes on Tuesday…

A strong winter storm and cold front will continue to progress through the
West, reaching the Central Rockies on Tuesday. Furthermore, the storm will
create near-blizzard conditions, resulting in dangerous travel. Snowfall
rates of 1-2 inches per hour will move into the Great Basin and Central
Rockies on Tuesday. These snow rates combined with winds gusting 50-65 mph
will produce near-blizzard conditions with significantly reduced
visibility and snow-covered roads leading to dangerous travel. Further,
significant snow accumulations will occur across the Colorado Rockies
southward into the San Juans and Sangre de Cristos; there is a high chance
(greater than 70%) of more than 8 inches of snow in the higher elevations.

In addition, widespread snow squalls are expected to develop along the
path of the cold front from Utah to Wyoming and Colorado on Tuesday. Where
snow squalls occur, intense snow rates will produce rapid drops in
visibility and icing on roadways, resulting in dangerous travel.

In addition, much colder air will move in behind the strong cold front.
Temperatures will fall into the teens and single digits Tuesday morning
throughout the Intermountain West.

Another powerful storm will move over the West, producing a significant
winter storm over the Pacific Northwest late Wednesday into Thursday, as
heavy snow returns to the Northern Cascades and Northern Intermountain
Region.

Meanwhile, on Tuesday, a front extending from the Upper Great Lakes to the
Central Rockies will create heavy snow over parts of the Upper Mississippi
Valley and moderate to heavy snow over the Upper Great Lakes. Ahead of the
front, southerly wind will bring warm temperatures of 15 to 30 degrees
above average to the Southern Plains to the Great Lakes. The warm and dry
conditions with gusty winds across the Southern Plains have resulted in an
Elevated Risk of Fire Weather (level 1/3) from the Storm Prediction Center
on Tuesday.

Additionally, moisture from the Western Gulf of Mexico will stream
northward over the Southern Plains, Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley, and
Ohio Valley. The moisture will aid in creating showers and severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Ohio Valley. Therefore, the SPC has issued
a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Ohio
Valley, Middle Mississippi Valley, and Great Lakes through Wednesday
morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent
lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.
Further, there is an increased threat of hail two inches or greater over
parts of southwestern Michigan, most of Illinois and Indiana, plus
southeastern Missouri.

Moreover, as the robust front moves across the Great Lakes to the East
Coast, moderate to heavy snow will develop over the Great Lakes into the
Northeast, with light to moderate snow over the Central Appalachians on
Wednesday into Thursday morning. Ahead of the snow, showers and
thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Northeast. The boundary will
also create showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Eastern Ohio
Valley, Central Appalachians, into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast.

Elsewhere, upper-level energy moving into the Southwest and Southern
Rockies will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms from Wednesday
afternoon into Thursday morning.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Above is a 72 hour animation of the forecast. Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report issued today.

It is difficult to find a more comprehensive Weather Outlook anywhere else with the ability to get a local 10-day Forecast also.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Feb 25 2024
Valid 12Z Sun Feb 25 2024 – 12Z Tue Feb 27 2024

…Heavy snow over parts of the Cascades, the Northern Intermountain
Region, Northern/Central Rockies, and higher elevations of the Great
Basin…

…Light snow over parts of the Northeast and snow over the Northern
Plains on Monday...

…Heavy snow over parts of the Sierra Nevada Mountains on Monday…

A strong winter storm and cold front will move into the Northwest on
Sunday and progress southeastward into the Northern Rockies on Monday.
Heavy mountain snow over the Cascades will impact the passes by late
Sunday, with greater than 80% chance of at least a foot of snow above
1500ft through early Tuesday. In addition, snowfall will sometimes become
heavy, with rates of 1-2 inches per hour, along with windy conditions,
creating areas of blowing snow and drifting snow and significantly
reducing visibility.

Furthermore, snow squalls are likely along the path of the cold front on
Monday over the Northern Intermountain Region/Rockies, which could create
a rapid drop in visibility and icing on roadways, leading to dangerous
travel. Additionally, much colder air behind the strong cold front will
drop temperatures into the teens and colder by Tuesday morning.

Further, the system will produce coastal rain over the Northwest, with
snow levels lowering to near sea level after the front passes. Overnight
Sunday, rain will move into parts of California, with higher-elevation
snow. Moreover, on Monday, heavy snow will impact the Sierra Nevada
Mountains. A wave of low pressure will move over parts of the Northern
Plains by Monday evening as snow develops over the region. There is also a
risk of rain/freezing rain moving over parts of the Upper Mississippi
Valley.

Meanwhile, moisture from the Western Gulf of Mexico will stream northward
over the Southern Plains, Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley, and Ohio
Valley. The moisture will aid in creating scattered light rain showers
over parts of the Ohio Valley overnight Sunday into Monday. By Tuesday,
the moisture will produce showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Ohio
Valley. Furthermore, upper-level energy will assist in creating light snow
over parts of the Northeast overnight Sunday into Monday evening.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Above is a 72 hour animation of the forecast. Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report issued today.

It is difficult to find a more comprehensive Weather Outlook anywhere else with the ability to get a local 10-day Forecast also.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon update can be found here if I have not updated it.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
251 AM EST Mon Feb 19 2024

Valid 12Z Mon Feb 19 2024 – 12Z Wed Feb 21 2024

…There’s a Moderate risk of excessive rainfall along coastal southern
California today…

…Heavy Snow likely over Sierra Nevada and Shasta Siskiyous in
California…

…Warming trend expected to expand across the Great Plains through
midweek…

A potent upper-level low will continue directing subtropical moisture over
much of California today. Heavy coastal and low elevation rain,
thunderstorms, heavy mountain snow and high winds are all expected from
this Atmospheric River event. Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash Flooding
is possible for much of the state today. A Slight Risk of Excessive
Rainfall (level 2/4) is in effect from Humboldt to Orange County as well
as over parts of the Sacramento Valley and along upslope portions of the
Sierra. A Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms is in effect for parts of
the Sacramento Valley where an isolated tornado will be possible. A
targeted Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall is in effect for Santa
Barbara and Ventura where heavy rainfall will focus, especially over
elevated terrain. Heavy Snow will blanket the Sierra Nevada and Shasta
Siskiyous today as well, with those mountains forecast to receive 1-3 feet
(isolated higher) of snow by Tuesday morning.

The moisture feed into California will weaken considerably and sag south
on Tuesday, but the threat of Flash Flooding will persist across southern
California, in particular. Upslope flow into the Transverse ranges will
support a renewed threat of Flash Flooding. A Slight Risk of Excessive
Rainfall is in effect from Humboldt down through San Diego County on
Tuesday mainly due to sensitive soils from today’s heavy rain. Up to a
foot of additional snow accumulations with locally higher amounts are
possible over the Sierra and Shasta Siskiyous on Tuesday. Damaging wind
gusts should continue into Wednesday morning before gradually weakening.

Elsewhere, lake effect snow will come to an end this afternoon across the
Lower Great Lakes. Upper level ridging with embedded shortwave energy will
support a warming trend acrosss the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley
through midweek when anomalous temperatures are expected to reach their
peak for the week. High temperatures will be between 15-25 degrees above
average by Wednesday over much of the central U.S..

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Above is a 72 hour animation of the forecast. Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report issued today.

It is difficult to find a more comprehensive Weather Outlook anywhere else with the ability to get a local 10-day Forecast also.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon update can be found here if I have not updated it.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Feb 18 2024
Valid 12Z Sun Feb 18 2024 – 12Z Tue Feb 20 2024

…There’s a Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash Flooding
over portions of Southern California…

…Heavy Snow likely over Sierra Nevada and Shasta Siskiyous…

…Warming trend continues across Central U.S. through midweek…

A closed upper-level low will direct a plume of subtropical moisture into
California over the next few days. A low pressure system at the surface
will focus the moisture along its attendant surface fronts as it makes
it’s way into the state. Heavy Rainfall is expected for the coastal areas
as well as much of the inland valleys of northern/central California and
into the windward foothills of the Sierra beginning this evening. Some
instability will work it’s way into portions of southern California
tonight and continue into Monday morning, which will lead to the chance
for thunderstorms and increased rain rates. Thus, a Moderate Risk of
Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash Flooding (level 3/4) is in effect for
portions of Santa Barbara County tonight and expanding into Ventura on
Monday as the heavy rain drifts southward along a cold front. Slight Risks
(level 2/4) are in effect for Humboldt down to Ventura today and then
expanding down to Orange through Tuesday.

Meanwhile, heavy snow will develop over the Sierra and Shasta Siskiyous
tonight. This snowfall is expected to continue into Tuesday when the
Pacific moisture feed is likely to end. Between 2-4 feet of snow are
forecast for the Sierra and Shasta by Tuesday morning with locally higher
amounts possible. Elsewhere, a stalled out surface front will focus
showers and thunderstorms across the Florida Peninsula today. A stripe of
1-2 inches of rain is probable across central/southern portions of the
peninsula. Lake effect snow showers continue downwind of the Great Lakes
through Sunday night. An upper ridge with embedded shortwave energy will
support a warming trend across the Great Plains, Mississippi Valley and
Midwest over the next several days.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Above is a 72 hour animation of the forecast. Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report issued today.

It is difficult to find a more comprehensive Weather Outlook anywhere else with the ability to get a local 10-day Forecast also.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the highlights from the NWS.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Feb 17 2024
Valid 12Z Sat Feb 17 2024 – 12Z Mon Feb 19 2024

…Heavy to Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash Flooding possible across
much of coastal California…

…Heavy Rainfall likely over much of the Florida Peninsula this weekend…

…Warming trend ensues across midsection of the country…

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Above is a 72 hour animation of the forecast.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report issued today.