Intermediate-Term Weather Outlook

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Jan 27 2025
Valid 12Z Mon Jan 27 2025 – 12Z Wed Jan 29 2025

…Heavy rain and localized flash flood risk continues for portions of
southern California today…

…Elevated fire weather concerns for portions of Arizona and New Mexico
today…

…Heavy rain possible across the southern Plains on Wednesday…

A slow-moving closed upper low will linger over the southwestern U.S.
through mid-week while a low pressure system strengthens at the surface.
This low pressure system will bring chances for rain and mountain snow to
the Southwest today and Tuesday, then the system will push into the
southern Plains on Wednesday. Given the increased sensitivity from recent
wildfires in southern California, moderate to locally heavy rain could
lead to debris flows and flash flooding in burn scar areas today. To the
east, gusty winds and dry conditions will lead to elevated fire weather
concerns for portions of Arizona and New Mexico today, but precipitation
is expected to reduce fire weather concerns Tuesday into Wednesday.

As the low pressure system emerges in the southern Plains on Wednesday, it
will interact with warm moist air in place over the south-Central U.S.
resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall
may result in isolated instances of flash flooding in Central/North Texas
and southern Oklahoma, mainly in urban and poor drainage areas.

Showers and thunderstorms will also be possible in the Southeast as a
frontal boundary pushes across the region. The front should push offshore
on Tuesday and high pressure will move over the Southeast in it’s wake. To
the north, rounds of snow are expected across the Great Lakes and
Northeast through Wednesday. Initially, a cold front sinking south into
the area will bring snow today, then a clipper type low pressure system
will quickly swing across the Great Lakes Tuesday into Wednesday,
triggering another round of snow. Snow totals will likely be highest
downwind of the Great Lakes where lake effect enhancement is expected.

Elsewhere, dry conditions are expected for much of the Northwest and
north-Central U.S. under the influence of high pressure.

Temperatures are expected to be below normal through Wednesday across the
Southwest under the closed upper low, and below normal temperatures will
likely develop across the Northeast after a cold front drops south across
the region today. The weather pattern will favor above normal temperatures
in the north-Central U.S. today, and above normal temperatures will expand
to the South and East by Wednesday.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Jan 25 2025
Valid 12Z Sat Jan 25 2025 – 12Z Mon Jan 27 2025

…Precipitation in southern California will ease wildfire conditions but
could result in localized debris flows and flash flooding…

…Elevated wildfire concerns over portions of Arizona this weekend…

A deep upper low and associated frontal system are working their way south
across the western U.S., bringing snow from the Great Basin east to the
Rockies and central High Plains. The upper low is forecast to gradually
stall, resulting in persistent low pressure over the Southwest through
Monday. As low pressure strengthens, winds and precipitation will increase
across the region. Strong gusty winds and dry conditions will likely
result in elevated wildfire concerns over portions of Arizona while
precipitation eases fire weather conditions in southern California. Due to
increased sensitivity from recent wildfires, moderate to locally heavy
rain could result in debris flows and flash flooding in or around burn
scars in southern California.

East of the Rockies, low pressure tracking along the U.S.-Canada border
will push a couple of frontal systems south across the Central U.S. while
high pressure builds over the Southeast today. The leading front will
extend from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes, but precipitation
chances will be limited to the southern Plains and Great Lakes regions.
The second front will trigger snow showers over the northern Plains and
Upper Midwest today before catching up with the leading front this
afternoon. The southern portion of the front will slowly sag towards the
Gulf Coast Sunday into Monday while the northern portion pushes across the
Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue
in the southern Plains and spread into the Lower Mississippi Valley and
Southeast. Locally heavy rainfall may lead to isolated instances of flash
flooding on Sunday for portions of the Texas Gulf Coast and Lower
Mississippi Valley. Wintry precipitation chances will also spread into the
northern/central Appalachians and interior New England, with the locally
heavy snow possible in northern New York downwind of Lake Ontario.

Today will mark the start of a warming trend in temperatures along the
Gulf and East Coasts. High temperatures will generally be 5-15 degrees
below average this afternoon, then return to near average values Sunday
and Monday. A cooler air mass will move across the Central U.S. in the
wake of a cold front this weekend, with the coldest anomalies expected in
the Rockies and High Plains where temperatures will be 15-25 degrees below
average today. An eastward moving warm front will bring above average
temperatures to the north-Central U.S. by Monday. West of the Rockies,
temperatures will generally be below average under the influence of the
upper low, and precipitation and cloud cover will result in highs falling
to 10-20 degrees below average in the Southwest.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Jan 24 2025
Valid 12Z Fri Jan 24 2025 – 12Z Sun Jan 26 2025

…Elevated fire weather conditions continue in southern California,
precipitation expected to bring relief Saturday into Sunday…

…Below average temperatures continue in the South and East, gradual warm
up anticipated this weekend…

A deep upper level low will drop into the western U.S. today, pushing a
surface frontal system south across the region. The system is forecast to
move across the Northwest and northern/central Rockies today and move into
the Four Corners region and Southwest this weekend. Widespread light to
moderate snow is expected across the Intermountain West, and heavy snow
may be possible in some of the higher elevations. The upper low will
become nearly stationary over the Southwest this weekend, causing a low
pressure system to spin up along the California coast that will likely
bring beneficial precipitation to southern California, which has been
suffering from elevated wildfire conditions over the past few weeks. Dry
conditions and elevated wildfire conditions will persist before
precipitation arrives on Saturday. As low pressure strengthens, the
pressure gradient across the West will tighten, resulting in elevated
winds across much of the West on Saturday and Sunday.

Elsewhere, low pressure tracking across the northern tier will push a
couple of relatively weaker cold fronts south across the Central U.S.
while high pressure builds over the East. The first front will drop south
across the northern and central Plains today causing low pressure and high
winds to develop in the lee of the Rockies. The low will push into the
southern Plains with the cold front on Saturday and approach the Gulf
Coast on Sunday. Moisture streaming ahead of the front will support
showers and thunderstorms in the southern Plains and Lower Mississippi
Valley Saturday night into Sunday. A second cold front will drop into the
northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Saturday, but dissipate over the
Central Plains on Sunday. These two systems will likely produce some snow
showers across the northern tier of the nation through this weekend, and
locally heavy lake effect snow will be possible downwind of the Great
Lakes.

Temperatures will remain below average today and Saturday for most of the
South and East. Some of the most notable departures from average will be
along the Gulf Coast to the Southeast where lows are forecast to be in the
20s and 30s and highs may only reach the 40s and lower 50s. Daytime highs
will likely help to melt snow cover from the recent historic winter storm,
but liquid water from melted snow may refreeze overnight when temperatures
drop below freezing. Temperatures will gradually moderate through the
weekend, trending closer to normal by early next week. Below average
temperatures are also expected in the West underneath the upper low, and
highs could be 15-25 degrees below average in the Rockies over the
weekend.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed Jan 22 2025
Valid 00Z Thu Jan 23 2025 – 00Z Sat Jan 25 2025

…Dangerously cold temperatures and wind chill values to linger for much
of the South and eastern U.S….

…High winds and snow over parts of the Montana through Wednesday
evening…

…Moderate to heavy lake-enhanced snow downwind from the Great Lakes…

…There is a Critical Risk of fire weather over parts of Southern
California…

Bitterly cold high pressure extending from the Mid-Atlantic to Central
Gulf Coast brings temperatures 15 to 25 degrees below average from parts
of the Mid-Atlantic to the Central Gulf Coast. Arctic air will persist in
the Southeast into Thursday with a slow return to normal temperatures
expected by Friday. Multiple record low temperatures and record cold
afternoon highs are forecast Wednesday and Thursday. The associated wind
chills will be zero to 10 degrees above zero across portions of the
Southeast Wednesday night and Thursday morning. The cold temperatures and
wind chills pose a heightened risk of hypothermia, as well as frostbite to
exposed skin. Protect pets, livestock, and exposed plumbing to avoid
over-exposure to the cold. Have a cold weather survival kit if traveling,
and fill up fuel tanks/batteries so that you can stay warm if you become
stranded.

Meanwhile, upper-level energy and upslope flow will produce light snow
over parts of the Northern Rockies from Wednesday evening into Thursday.
Additionally, high wind and snow will occurred through Wednesday evening.
On Thursday, the snow will become light to moderate over the region and
light snow will develop over parts of the Northern Plains on Friday.

Furthermore, a clipper system over the Upper Great Lakes moves into
Eastern Canada by Thursday with the trailing cold front moving off the
Northeast Coast by Friday evening. The system will produce moderate to
heavy lake-enhanced snow over the Upper Great Lakes Wednesday evening into
Thursday. Light snow will also develop over parts of the Ohio Valley,
likewise, Wednesday evening into Thursday. The moderate to heavy
lake-enhanced snow will move into the Lower Great Lakes Thursday evening
into Friday. In addition, light upslope snow will develop over parts of
the Central Appalachians Thursday evening into Friday.

Moreover, strong high pressure over parts of the Northern Intermountain
Region and Great Basin will set up Santa Ana winds over Southern
California. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Critical Risk of fire weather
over parts of Southern California through Thursday. Winds of 20 to 40 mph,
with stronger winds in the terrain, low relative humidity, and dry fuels
have contributed to the dangerous conditions.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Jan 20 2025
Valid 12Z Mon Jan 20 2025 – 12Z Wed Jan 22 2025

…Dangerously cold temperatures in place from the Rockies to the East
Coast…

…Rare, significant winter storm to bring a swath of heavy snow as well
as areas of sleet and freezing rain to the Gulf Coast and Southeast…

…Extremely Critical Risk of Fire Weather for southern California
Monday…

A bitterly cold arctic airmass has overspread the interior western,
central, and eastern U.S. following a strong cold front passage over the
weekend. Forecast high temperatures Monday from the Great Basin/Rockies
east to the East Coast will be upwards of 20-30 degrees below January
averages, ranging from the negative teens and single digits in the
northern Plains/Upper Midwest; the single digits and teens in the Rockies,
central Plains, and Midwest; the teens and 20s for New England and the
Mid-Atlantic; and the 20s and 30s for the Great Basin, southern Plains,
and Southeast. Life-threatening wind chills of 30 to 55 degrees below zero
at times are expected across the Rockies, northern Plains, and Upper
Midwest through Tuesday morning. Wind chills of this nature pose an
extreme risk of hypothermia and frost bite to exposed skin. Sub-zero wind
chills will reach as far south as the south-central Plains and east into
the Ohio Valley through Wednesday. Numerous Freeze Warnings are in place
along the Gulf Coast and northern Florida as sub-freezing morning lows
will pose a risk to sensitive vegetation and exposed plumbing for
locations not as accustomed to harsh Winter temperatures. Unfortunately,
these conditions look to remain in place across the eastern and southern
U.S. through the next few days. Upper-level ridging expanding across the
northwestern tier of the country will bring relatively warmer, more
seasonable Winter temperatures to portions of the Great Basin/Rockies as
well as the northern/central Plains on Tuesday, with highs back into the
20s, 30s, and 40s.

In addition to the frigid temperatures, the combination of such cold air
reaching the Gulf Coast and a developing low pressure system will lead to
a rare, significant winter storm for the Gulf Coast States and Southeast.
Impacts will begin Monday evening across eastern and southern Texas,
spreading eastward along the Gulf Coast and through the Southeast through
Tuesday and Wednesday. Heavy snow is expected along and north of the
Interstate 10 corridor with swaths of sleet and freezing rain over
portions of southern Texas and southeast Georgia/northern Florida. Major
travel disruptions are likely and flight delays/cancellations are expected
given that these areas are not accustomed to impactful Winter weather.
Power outages in areas of significant snow and ice are possible, and will
exacerbate impacts from the frigidly cold temperatures that will also be
in place.

Conditions will remain closer to average temperaure-wise for the West
Coast, particularly in California where forecast highs are in the 50s and
60s. Unfortunately, the mild temperatures as well as low humidity and the
return of very strong winds will lead to dangerous fire weather conditions
for southern California Monday into Tuesday. The Storm Prediction Center
has issued a Critical Risk of Fire weather (level 2/3) for southern
California as gusts to 60 mph for lower elevations and 75 mph and higher
in the foothills are expected. An Extremely Critical Risk (level 3/3) is
in place for the sensitive, ongoing fire areas of the San Gabriel and
Santa Monica Mountains.

Elsewhere, bands of heavy lake effect snow will continue the next couple
of days for favorable downwind locations of the Great Lakes with
persistent northwesterly flow in place. An upper-level wave will encourage
snow showers with some accumulations possible for portions of the
central/southern Rockies and Plains on Monday, while a clipper system
dropping south from Canada will bring snow showers to the northern
Rockies/Plains and Upper Midwest Tuesday into Tuesday night.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Jan 19 2025
Valid 12Z Sun Jan 19 2025 – 12Z Tue Jan 21 2025

…Winter storm to bring moderate to heavy snow to the Mid-Atlantic and
Northeast Sunday…

…Intrusion of Arctic Air bringing dangerously cold conditions to much of
the nation...

…Impacts from a rare, significant winter storm across the South next
week will begin for Texas Monday night…

…A Critical Risk of Fire Weather returns for southern California
Monday…

A winter storm is forecast to produce heavy snow across portions of the
Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today (Sunday). Some snow showers over the
Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and rain showers in the Southeast will linger into
Sunday morning following the passage of a cold front off the East Coast.
Meanwhile, an upper-level wave will help to deepen an area of low pressure
along a cold front Sunday morning which will move to the northeast just
off the coast through Sunday night. This will lead to a band of enhanced
snowfall developing inland to the northwest of the low track over the
Appalachians Sunday morning and from the northern Mid-Atlantic into New
England during the day. The heaviest snow will likely stay to the north
and west of the I-95 corridor. However, 3-6″ of snow with locally higher
amounts is expected form northern Maryland through Boston. Some
rain/wintry mix will be possible from northern Virginia to southern New
Jersey.

Precipitation chances elsewhere through Monday include bands of heavy
lake-effect snow for favorable downwind locations of the Great Lakes with
cold northwesterly flow in place. Some snow showers will return to the
central/southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains on Monday as a shortwave
passes over the region and in the presence of post-frontal upslope flow.

Another big story this weekend and heading into next week will be the
bitterly cold Arctic airmass spreading across most of the central/eastern
U.S. Temperatures have already plummeted across the Rockies, Plains, and
Mississippi Valley, and will reach the East Coast Sunday as the noted cold
front pushes offshore. This will be the coldest air of the Winter season
thus far, and in many cases the coldest in several years. Forecast highs
the next couple of days range from below zero to the single digits in the
northern Plains/Upper Midwest; the single digits and teens across the
Rockies, central Plains, and Midwest; the teens and 20s across the
Northeast and Mid-Atlantic; and the 20s and 30s for Texas and the
Southeast. Wind chills will reach dangerously cold levels, with minimum
wind chills from 30 to 55 below zero at times Sunday and Monday in the
Rockies, northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Sub-zero wind chills are
expected to reach as far south as Oklahoma and the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys
by Sunday night.

The combination of this frigid air reaching the Gulf Coast and the
development of a low pressure system over the Gulf will lead to a
significant winter storm across the Gulf Coast/Southeast next week.
Initial impacts are expected to begin by late Monday night across eastern
and southern Texas. A corridor of potentially heavy snow is expected near
and just south of the Interstate 20 corridor, with a wintry mix of snow,
sleet, and freezing rain closer to the Interstate 10 corridor. Given the
rare southerly track of this winter storm, major traffic and travel
disruptions are likely through mid-week.

Some of this Arctic airmass will reach portions of the Great
Basin/Interior West as well, with highs by Monday only in the 20s and 30s
for most locations. Forecast highs are generally more mild and around
average along the West Coast, with 40s for the Pacific Northwest, the 50s
and 60s for California, and the 60s to low 70s for the Desert Southwest.
Unfortunately, these mild conditions along with gusty winds and very low
humidity have prompted the Storm Prediction Center to issue a Critical
Risk of Fire Weather (level 2/3) Monday for southern California.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Jan 18 2025
Valid 12Z Sat Jan 18 2025 – 12Z Mon Jan 20 2025

…Winter storm to bring moderate to heavy snow to the Mid-Atlantic and
Northeast Sunday…

…Snow showers with moderate accumulations continue Saturday through the
central Rockies and adjacent central/southern High Plains…

…Arctic front brings dangerous cold to much of the nation this weekend…

Moisture lifting northward ahead of a storm system/cold front pushing
through the eastern U.S. will bring wintry precipitation to the north and
rain and thunderstorms to the Southeast Saturday. A light to moderate
wintry mix is expected to move from the Great Lakes into the Appalachians
and interior Northeast, with mostly light rain showers elsewhere in the
Ohio Valley/Southeast and along the East Coast. An enhanced flow of Gulf
moisture over northern Florida will bring some more intense showers and
thunderstorms Saturday night with locally heavy rainfall and the risk for
some isolated flash flooding. A changeover to snow is expected Saturday
night for the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys following cold frontal passage,
though accumulations should generally remain light. Then, an upper-level
shortwave traversing the southern U.S. will help to encourage the
development/deepening of an area of low pressure as it moves off the coast
of the Mid-Atlantic. This will lead to an enhanced swath of snow to the
northwest of the low track beginning early Sunday morning across the
Appalachians and continuing into the day Sunday from the northern
Mid-Atlantic to New England. The swath of heaviest snow (5-8″+) will
likely stay just to the north and west of the I-95 corridor. However, 3-6″
of snow with locally higher amounts is expected from northern Maryland
through Boston. Lake-effect snow will also continue this weekend for
favorable locations downwind of the Great Lakes with strong northwesterly
flow in place following the frontal passage.

Elsewhere, snow showers will continue Friday for portions of the Rockies
and adjacent central/southern High Plains in post-frontal upslope flow.
Moderate totals of 3-6″ are possible in vicinity of the Raton Mesa.
Otherwise, the rest of the central/western U.S. will be mostly dry this
weekend.

Besides the impactful winter weather, dangerously cold temperatures
spreading across much of the Lower 48 this weekend and into next week will
be the other big weather story. Arctic air will plunge southward Saturday
over the Rockies, Plains, and Midwest following the cold frontal passage,
and will reach the East Coast Sunday night as the front moves off into the
Atlantic. Forecast highs by Sunday range from below zero to the single
digits in the northern Plains/Upper Midwest, the teens and 20s across the
central Plains and Midwest, the 20s and 30s for the southern Plains and
Lower Mississippi Valley, and the 40s along the western and central Gulf
Coast. These temperatures will spread to the East Coast for highs Monday,
just beyond the forecast period. Dangerously cold wind chills of 30-55
degrees below zero are expected across the Rockies, northern Plains, and
Upper Midwest Sunday and continuing into next week. This will pose a
life-threatening risk of hypothermia and frostbite to exposed skin. Wind
chills below zero will reach as far south as Oklahoma and the Tennessee
Valleys. Temperatures will remain near average west of the Rockies, with
30s and 40s for the Interior West/Pacific Northwest, the 50s and 60s in
California, and the 60s and 70s in the Desert Southwest.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Jan 17 2025
Valid 12Z Fri Jan 17 2025 – 12Z Sun Jan 19 2025

…Arctic front begins to bring hazardous cold to much of the nation this
weekend…

…Wintry mix for the Midwest/Northeast and rain for the Southeast Friday
into Saturday…

…Snow showers with some moderate accumulations expected through the
Northern/Central Rockies and adjacent High Plains…

A clipper system will move quickly across the northern Plains into the
Midwest Friday and the Northeast by Saturday, bringing a wintry mix of
rain and snow showers ahead of a sweeping cold front. Precipitation totals
should remain on the lighter side for most locations through Saturday,
with only some light snow accumulations expected for some of the higher
elevations of the Appalachians. More moderate totals are expected where
post-frontal flow across the Great Lakes will lead to some lake-effect
snow showers for favorable downwind locations, especially along the Upper
Peninsula of Michigan and east of Lake Ontario. Some potentially more
impactful snow is becoming more likely for the Northeast on Sunday just
beyond the current forecast period. Further South, moist return flow from
the Gulf of Mexico will lead to heavier rain showers ahead of the trailing
cold front through the Middle Mississippi/Ohio Valley and the Southeast
late Friday and into early Saturday. Some wintry precipitation will be
possible following the frontal passage for the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys on
Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms will continue ahead of the front as it
passes into northern Florida by Saturday evening, with more potent locally
heavy downpours and isolated flash flooding possible.

This sweeping cold front will begin to usher in a frigid Arctic airmass
that will be one of the main national weather stories this weekend and
into the next week. Temperatures will plunge by 30-40 degrees Saturday
after above average conditions on Friday. Forecast highs Saturday range
from the single digits and teens in the northern Plains/Upper Midwest, the
teens and 20s for the central Plains and Midwest, and the 30s and 40s into
the Southern Plains/northern Texas. Wind chills upwards of 20-30 degrees
below zero are expected for the northern Plains. Unfortunately, this is
only just the tip of the iceberg, as even colder temperatures will expand
in coverage beyond the current forecast period. Conditions will be at or
above average ahead of the front along the East Coast and the Southeast
through Saturday, with highs the next couple of days in the 30s and 40s
for the Northeast, the 40s and 50s from the Ohio Valley east through the
Carolinas, and the 60s and low 70s for the Southeast.

Upslope flow following the passage of the front along the Rockies will
lead to some scattered snow showers with light to moderate accumulations
for the northern Rockies/High Plains Friday and the central and southern
Rockies/High Plains Friday into Saturday. Gusty winds are also expected
across portions of the Plains and along the Front Range of the Rockies.
This may lead to some blowing snow in the northern Plains. Dry conditions
are expected for the Great Basin and West Coast, with high temperatures
generally around average. Forecast highs range from the 30s and 40s in the
Great Basin, the 40s for the Pacific Northwest, the 50s and 60s in
California, and the 60s to low 70s in the Desert Southwest.