Four Months of Wildfire Risks

At the end of every month, NOAA updates its Outlook for the following month which in this case is May of 2023. We are reporting on that tonight.

There have been some significant changes in the Outlook for May and these are addressed in the NOAA Discussion so it is well worth reading. We highlighted some of the important changes within the NOAA Discussion. We also provided the prior Mid-Month Outlook for May for comparison.  From the NOAA Discussion:

• A weak tilt toward below normal temperatures is indicated over the interior eastern CONUS beneath the persistent early-May trough
• Enhanced probabilities of above normal temperatures remain over New England and Florida
• The area of above normal [temperature] probabilities over the Pacific Northwest is expanded into the western Northern Plains
• The region of below normal [temperature] probabilities is maintained and expanded over the West Coast into the Southwest
• Enhanced probabilities of below normal precipitation over the Great Lakes  are expanded into the Upper and Middle Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valley regions
• The tilt towards above normal precipitation is maintained over the Gulf States and expanded into parts of eastern Texas
• A tilt toward above normal precipitation is now indicated over the western CONUS

The article includes the Drought Outlook for May. We have also included the current fire incidents (starting to increase) and four months of Wildland Fire Potential Outlooks and also a map showing the current snowpack in the West and the streamflow forecast. We also provide the Week 2/3 Tropical Outlook for the World. We also provide an interesting Podcast that reviews the Winter and looks ahead to the Spring.