NOAA Updates it’s ENSO Outlook on February 9, 2023 – Changes are Coming

February 10, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 3:23 p.m. EST Friday, February 10 to include a second interesting ENSO Blog Article. You have to click where shown to read them.

On the second Thursday of every month, NOAA issues its analysis of the status of ENSO. This includes determining the Alert System Status. The best guess remains March.

This may seem like a repeat of our article from last month and in a way it is since the situation has not changed. But no change increases the confidence in the forecast.

And again some of the models suggest a rapid change to El Nino. It seems likely that the ENSO Neutral Phase will at the very least have an El Nino bias.

Because the situation has not changed, we have published a shorter version of our usual article since there is little disagreement that we are transitioning away from La Nina. It is also a bit too early to examine the potential for an El Nino. We need to get past the Spring Prediction Barrier (SPB) to be confident about having an El Nino soon.

The article includes two very interesting posts from the ENSO Blog. They are worth reading.

NOAA Updates it’s November 2022 ENSO Outlook

November 14, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

On the second Thursday of every month, NOAA issues its analysis of the status of ENSO. This includes determining the Alert System Status. Although the current status remains the same i.e.  La Nina Advisory, the forecast has again been adjusted slightly from the prior month. There is some disagreement on when this La Nina will end with the best guess being perhaps March.

But I have actually seen only a few signs of it starting to happen. But all the meteorologists agree that it will.  Could they all be wrong? Probably not.

NOAA Updates it’s October 2022 ENSO Outlook

October 16, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

On the second Thursday of every month, NOAA issues its analysis of the status of ENSO. This includes determining the Alert System Status. Although the current status remains the same i.e.  La Nina Advisory, the forecast has again been adjusted slightly from the prior month. The IRI analysis suggests it could be slightly later than it appeared last month. Also, the probability that it will extend into the winter is much higher. So what I anticipated as being a three-peat now looks to be a certainty. There is some disagreement on when this La Nina will end with the best guess being perhaps February or March.

But I actually see no sign of it starting to happen. But all the meteorologists agree that it will.  Could they all be wrong?

I also include some interesting graphics that show the impact of the combination of La Nina and what NOAA calls “trend” which is a combination of Global Warming and long cycles.  I find them interesting. The IOD is about over so the weather in the  Indian Ocean should return to something more like normal. The three phases of ENSO basically impact the entire world. It does appear that this third La Nina winter may be quite different from last year. But I will address that when NOAA issues their Seasonal Outlook for the U.S. and when I publish the JAMSTEC world outlook which I already have and I will probably publish it very soon.