NOAA Updates its Four Season Outlook on January 19, 2023 – Rapid Transition to ENSO Neutral and then possibly to El Nino
On the third Thursday of the month right on schedule NOAA issued what I describe as their Four-Season Outlook. The information released also included the MId-Month Outlook for the single month of February plus the weather and drought outlook for the next three months. I present the information issued and try to add context to it. It is quite a challenge for NOAA to address the subsequent month, the subsequent three-month period as well as successive three-month periods for a year or a bit more.
We will begin to see the impacts of the end of La Nina for precipitation in May/June/July of 2023. And the outlook for the Southwest Monsoon has changed from above normal to normal.
We may see the impacts of El Nino Conditions on the temperature in Dec/Jan/Feb 2023-2024 and on precipitation in Sept/Oct/Nov 2023 but the impacts will be small and strangely impacting the Eastern half of CONUS more than the West. The Outlook is not for a wetter-than-normal West but for some relief from the heat.
The maps show a series of changes which I have highlighted in my comments. Next winter will be very different than this winter.
It is very useful to read the excellent discussion that NOAA issues with this Seasonal Outlook.
