NOAA Issues Four-Season Outlook on August 18, 2022

By Sig Silber August 20, 2022weatherNo Comments

Preparing to Say Goodbye to La Nina Early in 2023

“The La Niña signature is likely to fade during FMA and MAM 2023, given that La Niña and ENSO-neutral are about even odds”

You can take La Nina out of the forecast, but the warming trend continues. But the Outlook is for a wetter CONUS starting in AMJ 2023. For many parts of CONUS, 2023 will be wetter than 2022. At least that is what NOAA is predicting right now.

Drought Update August 11, 2022: Marginal Temporary Improvement

By Sig Silber August 11, 2022weatherNo Comments

It is a good time to look at how the drought situation in the Continental U.S. has changed over the last couple of months. There is a big debate as to whether the increased precipitation in June and July really changed the situation or was simply a drop in the bucket and I am tending to agree with the “drop in the bucket” assessment. Keep on reading to find out why I have drawn that conclusion.

NOAA Issues Four-Season Outlook on July 21, 2022

By Sig Silber July 22, 2022weatherNo Comments

Preparing to Say Goodbye to La Nina, but Not Quite Yet

The three-month period Jan/Feb/Mar next year seems to be when the overall precipitation situation improves but for some reason the temperature situation does not and may be worse for several months along parts of the Southern Tier. You can take La Nina out of the forecast, but the warming trend continues. For many parts of CONUS, 2023 will be better than 2022. At least that is what NOAA is predicting right now.

Daily Report for this evening and the next 48 hours from July 6, 2022 plus access to intermediate term Outlooks

By Sig Silber July 6, 2022weatherNo Comments

This is still an experimental article (we are working to be sure all the images update)

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next two days from this afternoon’s NWS Forecast:

...Showers and thunderstorms with excessive rainfall and severe weather
possible through midweek from the Northern Rockies and High Plains to the
Mid Atlantic and Southeast...

...Dangerous heat and humidity to continue from parts of the central and
southern Plains to the Mid Atlantic and Southeast...

Daily Report for this evening and the next 48 hours from July 5, 2022 plus access to intermediate term Outlooks

By Sig Silber July 5, 2022weatherNo Comments

This is still an experimental article so it has some problems that need to be worked on

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next two days from this afternoon’s NWS Forecast.:

...Showers and thunderstorms with excessive rainfall and severe weather
possible early to mid week from the Northern High Plains to the East
Coast...

...Hot in the Southern & Central Plains and Southeast while milder
temperatures are expected in portions of the West/Northwest and
Northeast...

Daily Short-Term and Intermediate Term Weather Forecast – July 4, 2022

By Sig Silber July 4, 2022weatherNo Comments

This is still an experimental article so it has some problems that need to be worked on especially the tropical section.

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next two days from this afternoon’s NWS Forecast.:

...Excessive Rainfall and Severe Thunderstorms possible across northern
tier...

...West cools down as Great Plains into Midwest warm up...

...Critical fire weather conditions to persist across the Great Basin this
weekend...

NOAA Updates July Outlook – June 30, 2022 – Not Much Change – Some Ocean Indicators are Surprising

By Sig Silber July 1, 2022weatherNo Comments

Updated at 2:30 am EDT July 2, 2022 to incorporate the Week 3 – 4 Outlook which suggests that the second half of July will not be as cool in the Northwest but perhaps less warm elsewhere and the Monsoon may be less robust but some other areas will be less dry.

At the end of every month, NOAA updates their Mid-Month Outlook for the following month which in this case is July. They also issue a Drought Outlook for the following month and update the three-month Drought Outlook. We are reporting on that tonight. The updated Outlook is very similar to the Mid-Month Outlook. This is surprising since the Mid-Month Outlook was issued two weeks ago and there usually are more changes in that period of time.

For temperature, the shape and location of the large dry anomaly have changed a bit. The cool anomaly in the Northwest is now slightly larger. For precipitation, the area where an above-average Monsoon is forecasted is a little larger and shifted a bit to include more of New Mexico. there is a new small dry anomaly

We provide partial-month Outlooks for the first 22 days of July which allows us to somewhat assess if the Monthly Outlook is consistent with the partial-month Outlooks and it generally is. But we will not be able to answer that question definitively until the Week 3-4 Outlook is issued tomorrow. We will provide an update at that time.

We also provide enough information for readers to understand any changes from the Mid-Month Outlook and we try to figure out why these changes were made. Many of the changes are explained in the NOAA discussion which is included in the article. The partial-month forecasts that we have provided show how NOAA thinks this will play out as the weather pattern evolves during July.

There is also a discussion of the ENSO condition which is ever so slightly different than what NOAA used to develop the Mid-Month Outlook. But there is a fairly strong signal that this La Nina will end in late winter 2022/2023. The impacts on weather may not be noticed until Spring. But that is just the current forecast and can change.

We have also begun our tropical storm coverage. Yes, it is that time of the year. We are also providing special coverage of the Monsoon by providing the links to those daily updates.

NOAA Issues their Four-Season Outlook on June 16, 2022 – One or Two Month Delay in Southern Tier Shedding La Nina Weather

By Sig Silber June 17, 2022weatherNo Comments

.Updated at 5 pm EDT on June 18 to incorporate the Week 3 – 5 Outlook issued on June 17 which is somewhat different than the full-month outlook so it is of some interest.

Change Appears to be Coming – but a bit slower than it looked last month.

Even though the IRI analysis issued last week seems to show the La Nina will end perhaps a bit sooner than previously forecast, the weather outlooks seem to show weather impacts lasting a month or two longer. Uncertainty in the ENSO forecast introduces greater than usual uncertainty in the Seasonal Outlook. But the decadal trends are strong so we see a lot of that in the longer-term outlooks.

NOAA Updates its June Outlook May 31, 2022 – Quite a Big Change in Twelve Days

By Sig Silber June 1, 2022weatherNo Comments

There has been a large change in the weather outlook for June from NOAA.

At the end of every month, NOAA updates their Early Outlook for the following month which in this case is June. They also issue a Drought Outlook for the following month and update the three-month Drought Outlook. We are reporting on that tonight. The updated Outlook is quite different from the Early Outlook which NOAA now calls the Mid-Month Outlook. For temperature, the above-normal area is smaller than the Mid-Month Outlook and a large intrusion of colder air is expected along much of the Northern Tier. The drier than normal area is significantly reduced from the Mid-Month Outlook and shifted a bit and there are two additional areas of wetter than normal in the Outlook.

We provide partial-month outlooks for the first 24 days of June which allows us to somewhat assess if the Monthly Outlook is consistent with the partial month forecasts and it generally is. But we will not be able to answer that question definitively until the Week 3-4 Outlook is issued on Friday.

There is also a discussion of the ENSO condition which is slightly different than what NOAA used to develop the Mid-Month Outlook. The Negative Arctic Oscillation (AO) expected in the first half of June is a major factor.

We have also begun our tropical storm coverage. Yes, it is that time of the year.

NOAA Issues their Four-Season Outlook on May 19, 2022

By Sig Silber May 21, 2022weatherNo Comments

Change Appears to be Coming

Today is the third Thursday of the month so right on schedule NOAA has issued what I describe as their Four-Season Outlook. The information released also includes the Early Outlook for the single month of June plus the drought outlook for the next three months. I summarize the information issued and provide links to additional maps. Additionally, I have included quite a bit in this article. I want to remind everyone that last Thursday NOAA issued their ENSO outlook and that has a lot of influence on their Seasonal Outlook. The Seasonal Outlook generally reflects La Nina conditions initially with no clear indication of when this La Nina will end. There could be a triple-dip La Nina. That is not the most likely scenario but certainly can not be discounted. There is fairly good news with respect to the North American Monsoon (NAM).

The exact location of the Drought seems to be shifting a bit especially after this Summer. See the set of twelve overlapping three-month maps and my comments for details.