NOAA Updates its Seasonal Outlook on January 18, 2024 – Winners and Losers. Rapid Changes in ENSO Phases

January 19, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

Lightly Edited at 7:38 pm EST January 20, 2024

On the third Thursday of the month right on schedule NOAA issued their updated Seasonal Outlook which I describe as their Four-Season Outlook because it extends a bit more than one year into the future. The information released also included the Mid-Month Outlook for the following month plus the weather and drought outlook for the next three months.  I present the information issued by NOAA and try to add context to it. It is quite a challenge for NOAA to address the subsequent month, the subsequent three-month period as well as the twelve successive three-month periods for a year or a bit more.

With respect to the long-term part of the Outlook which I call the Four-Season Outlook, there is a fairly rapid transition from El Nino to ENSO Neutral to LaNina. Thus there are some changes from what was issued last month.

First, Let’s Take a Look at the (mid-month) Outlook for February.

It will be updated on the last day of January.

 

 

The top row is what is now called the Mid-Month Outlook for next month which will be updated at the end of this month. There is a temperature map and a precipitation map. The second row is a three-month outlook that includes next month.  I think the outlook maps are self-explanatory. What is important to remember is that they show deviations from the current definition of normal which is the period 1991 through 2020.  So this is not a forecast of the absolute value of temperature or precipitation but the change from what is defined as normal or to use the technical term “climatology”.

Notice that the outlook for next month and the three-month outlooks are somewhat different, particularly with respect to precipitation.  This tells us that March and April will be different than February to some extent.

The full NOAA Seasonal Outlook extends through February/March/April of 2025. All of these maps are in the body of the article. Large maps are provided for February and the three-month period Feb/Mar/Apr.  Small maps are provided beyond that through April of 2025 with a link to get larger versions of these maps.

NOAA provides an excellent discussion to support the maps. It is included in the body of this article. In some cases, one will need to click on “read more” to read the full article.  For those on my email list where I have sent the url of the article, that will not be necessary.

NOAA Updates its December 2023 Weather Outlook on November 30, 2023 – There have been some significant changes from the Mid-Month Outlook.

December 1, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Slightly modified at 6 pm EST December 1, 2023, to add additional clarity to the author’s comments.

At the end of every month, NOAA updates its Outlook for the following month which in this case is December of 2023. We are reporting on that tonight.

There have been some significant changes in the Outlook for December and these are addressed in the NOAA Discussion so it is well worth reading.  We provided the prior Mid-Month Outlook for December for comparison. It is easy to see the changes by comparing the Mid-Month and Updated Maps.

The article includes the Drought Outlook for December. NOAA also adjusted the previously issued Seasonal Drought Outlook to reflect the changes in the December Drought Outlook. We have included a map showing the water-year-to-date precipitation. We also provide the Week 2/3 Tropical Outlook for the World.

The best way to understand the updated outlook for December is to view the maps and read the NOAA discussion. I have highlighted the key statements in the NOAA Discussion.

I am going to start with graphics that show the updated Outlook for December and the Mid-Month Outlook for December. This is followed by a graphic that shows both the Updated Outlook for December and the three-month outlook DJF 2023 – 2024. So you get the full picture in three graphics.

Here is the updated Outlook for December 2023

For Comparison Purposes, Here is the Mid-Month Outlook for December.

There have been some significant changes especially related to Temperature. Remember, it is the top set of maps that are the current outlook for December. We are not sure that NOAA (actually their CPC Divison) has moved the storm track sufficiently south given the strength of this El Nino as measured by the Nino 3.4 Index. But it takes time for the impacts of an El Nino to be fully felt and there are conflicting factors. The sample size of very strong El Nino’s is very small so this complicates the forecasting process. The probability that his El Nino will record as being historically strong is less than 50% but well above zero. The atmosphere has not responded to the extent one might expect by just looking at the Nino 3.4 Index. The El Ninos with the highest level of the Nino 3.4 Index are not always the wettest but sometimes are. So we are dealing with a fair amount of uncertainty.  You can track the changes in our Daily Weather Article.

Combination of the Updated Outlook for December and the Three-Month Outlook

The top row is the Updated Outlook for the new month. There is a temperature map and a precipitation map. The second row is a three-month outlook that includes the new month. I think the outlook maps are self-explanatory. What is important to remember is that they show deviations from the current definition of normal which is the period 1991 through 2020.  So this is not a forecast of the absolute value of temperature or precipitation but the change from what is defined as normal or to use the technical term climatology.  The three-month map was issued on November 16, 2023.
Some readers may need to click “Read More” to read the rest of the article.  Some will feel that they have enough information. But there is a lot more information in the rest of this article.

NOAA Updates Its Seasonal Outlook on November 16, 2023 – El Nino Weather through Late Spring

November 17, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

On the third Thursday of the month right on schedule NOAA issued their updated Seasonal Outlook which I describe as their Four-Season Outlook because it extends a bit more than one year into the future. The information released also included the Mid-Month Outlook for the following month plus the weather and drought outlook for the next three months.  I present the information issued by NOAA and try to add context to it. It is quite a challenge for NOAA to address the subsequent month, the subsequent three-month period as well as the twelve successive three-month periods for a year or a bit more.

First, Let’s Take a Look at the (mid-month) Outlook for December. It will be updated on the last day of November.

Then I present a graphic that shows both the preliminary Outlook for December and the three-month outlook for DJF 2023-2024. So you get the full picture in one graphic. For some, that may be all they are interested in. Others will be interested in the longer-term predictions and also the rationale supporting the predictions which is mostly provided by the NOAA discussion.

The top row is what is now called the Mid-Month Outlook for next month which will be updated at the end of this month. There is a temperature map and a precipitation map. The second row is a three-month outlook that includes next month.  I think the outlook maps are self-explanatory. What is important to remember is that they show deviations from the current definition of normal which is the period 1991 through 2020.  So this is not a forecast of the absolute value of temperature or precipitation but the change from what is defined as normal or to use the technical term “climatology”.

Notice that the outlook for next month and the three-month outlooks are somewhat different with respect to temperature and also to some extent precipitation.  This tells us that January and February will be different than December to some extent.

The full NOAA Seasonal Outlook extends through December/January/February of 2025. All of these maps are in the body of the article. Large maps are there for December and the three-month period Dec/Jan/Feb.  Small maps are provided beyond that through February of 2025 with a link to get larger versions of these maps.

NOAA provides an excellent discussion to support the maps.[Author’s Note: many other meteorological agencies see this El Nino being stronger than NOAA does so there is more than usual uncertainty relating to the more distant months.]

NOAA Updates it’s Four-Season Outlook On February 16, 2023 – Potential El Niño impacts were considered in the outlooks for autumn 2023 and next winter

February 17, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 3:05 p.m. EST February 17, 2023 to incorporate information on the latest Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event

On the third Thursday of the month right on schedule NOAA issued what I describe as their Four-Season Outlook. The information released also included the MId-Month Outlook for the single month of March plus the weather and drought outlook for the next three months.  I present the information issued and try to add context to it. It is quite a challenge for NOAA to address the subsequent month, the subsequent three-month period as well as successive three-month periods for a year or a bit more.

It is very useful to read the excellent discussion that NOAA issues with this Seasonal Outlook. The CPC/IRI analysis suggests that ENSO will very soon return to Neutral with a La Nino bias and gradually transition to true Neutral, Neutral with an El Nino bias, and then solidly El Nino. Confidence in the first part of that sequence of transitions is higher than in the latter part of the sequence.

NOAA Updates it’s February 2023 Outlook on January 31, 2023

February 1, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 11:45 p.m. EST February 11 to update the wildfire potential maps that should have been updated early in the month.

At the end of every month, NOAA updates its Outlook for the following month which in this case is February of 2023. We are reporting on that tonight.

There have been some significant changes in the Outlook for February and these are addressed in the NOAA Discussion so it is well worth reading. We highlighted some of the important changes within the NOAA Discussion. We also provided the prior Mid-Month Outlook for February for comparison.  Although we remain in weak La Nina conditions, other facts now play a large and perhaps a larger role in the outlook for February.

The article includes the Drought Outlook for February. We have also included the current fire incidents (not many) and four months of Wildland Fire Potential Outlooks and also a map showing the year-to-date snowpack in the West. We also provide the Week 2/3 Tropical Outlook for the World.

NOAA Updates it’s December 2022 Outlook on November 30, 2022

December 1, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Wildfire Outlooks Updated at 7:50 pm EST December 1, 2022 (It gradually increases through March but is limited to two areas).

At the end of every month, NOAA updates its Outlook for the following month which in this case is December. They also issue a Drought Outlook for the following month. We are reporting on that this morning.

There have been some significant changes in the Outlook for December and these are addressed in the NOAA Discussion so it is well worth reading. We highlighted some of the important changes within the NOAA Discussion.  Of particular interest is the increased penetration of modified Artic air into the Lower 48 States (CONUS) and wet Pacific air to provide for a wet Northwest extending farther south along the West Coast. We end up with a wet, dry, wet, dry pattern extending NE to SE with a tendency for there to be wet Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.

The CLIMAS Podcast discusses some of the weather transitions we have seen and what may develop as this La Nina finally transitions to ENSO Neutral.

The article includes the Drought Outlook for December. We have also included the current fire incidents (not many) and four months of Wildland Fire Potential Outlooks and also a map showing the year-to-date precipitation in the West. We also provide the Week 2/3 Tropical Outlook for the World.

NOAA Updates its Four Season Outlook on November 17, 2022 – La Nina Winter then Big Changes

November 18, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

La Nina Winter, then ENSO Neutral and Then Maybe Something Else

Today is the third Thursday of the month so right on schedule NOAA has issued what I describe as their Four-Season Outlook. The information released also includes the MId-Month Outlook for the single month of December plus the weather and drought outlook for the next three months.  I present the information issued and try to add context to it. It is quite a challenge for NOAA to address the subsequent month, the subsequent three-month period as well as successive three-month periods for a year or a bit more.

We will begin to see the end of La Nina Impacts in March/April/May of 2023 and they will pretty much end before June/July/August of 2023, and there will be another change in November/December/January 2023/2024. Why that last change? Could it be an El Nino or ENSO Neutral with an El Nino Bias?

It is very useful to read the excellent discussion that NOAA issues with this Seasonal Outlook. NOAA seems to be more confident about making predictions beyond six months. They even predict a good Southwest Monsoon next summer which they never used to do this far in advance.

NOAA Updates their November 2022 Outlook on October 31, 2022 – Significant Changes from the Mid-Month Outlook

November 1, 2022Posted inweather3 Comments

Drought and Heat Shift to the East

At the end of every month, NOAA updates its Outlook for the following month which in this case is November. They also issue a Drought Outlook for the following month. We are reporting on that this morning.

There have been some significant changes in the Outlook for November and these are addressed in the NOAA Discussion so it is well worth reading. We highlighted some of the important changes within the NOAA Discussion.

Of significant interest is the Drought Outlook for November. There will be some improvement in the Great Plains but it will be dry to the east inducing drought conditions.

We have also included four months of Wildland Fire Potential Outlooks and also a map showing the year-to-date precipitation in the West. We also provide the Week 2/3 Tropical Outlook for the World.

NOAA Updates its Four Season Outlook on October 20, 2022 – Yet Another La Nina Winter

October 21, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Preparing to say goodbye to La Nina early in 2023. Now it looks like La Nina will remain until Spring.

Today is the third Thursday of the month so right on schedule NOAA has issued what I describe as their Four-Season Outlook. The information released also includes the Early Outlook for the single month of November plus the weather and drought outlook for the next three months.  I present the information issued and try to add context to it. It is quite a challenge for NOAA to address the subsequent month, the subsequent three-month period as well as successive three-month periods for a year or a bit more.

It is very useful to read the excellent discussion that NOAA issues with this Seasonal Outlook. NOAA seems to be more confident about making predictions beyond six months. They even predict a good monsoon next summer which they never do this far in advance.

I will be writing a subsequent article on the challenges to the Agriculture Sector in certain parts of CONUS.

NOAA Updates its Four Season Outlook on September 15, 2022 – One More La Nina Winter

September 17, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Preparing to Say Goodbye to La Nina Early in 2023. It seems as if it is taking forever but if the forecasters are correct, we are talking about four to six months from now.

Today is the third Thursday of the month so right on schedule NOAA has issued what I describe as their Four-Season Outlook. The information released also includes the Early Outlook for the single month of October plus the weather and drought outlook for the next three months.  I present the information issued and try to add context to it. It is quite a challenge for NOAA to address the subsequent month, the subsequent three-month period as well as successive three-month periods for a year or a bit more.

It is very useful to read the excellent discussion that NOAA issues with this Seasonal Outlook. NOAA seems to be more confident about making predictions beyond six months. They even predicted a good monsoon next summer which they never do this far in advance.