NOAA Updates its Four Season Outlook on November 17, 2022 – La Nina Winter then Big Changes
La Nina Winter, then ENSO Neutral and Then Maybe Something Else
Today is the third Thursday of the month so right on schedule NOAA has issued what I describe as their Four-Season Outlook. The information released also includes the MId-Month Outlook for the single month of December plus the weather and drought outlook for the next three months. I present the information issued and try to add context to it. It is quite a challenge for NOAA to address the subsequent month, the subsequent three-month period as well as successive three-month periods for a year or a bit more.
We will begin to see the end of La Nina Impacts in March/April/May of 2023 and they will pretty much end before June/July/August of 2023, and there will be another change in November/December/January 2023/2024. Why that last change? Could it be an El Nino or ENSO Neutral with an El Nino Bias?
It is very useful to read the excellent discussion that NOAA issues with this Seasonal Outlook. NOAA seems to be more confident about making predictions beyond six months. They even predict a good Southwest Monsoon next summer which they never used to do this far in advance.
