Day 1 – 5 Weather Forecast

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Jan 10 2025
Valid 12Z Fri Jan 10 2025 – 12Z Sun Jan 12 2025

…Critical fire weather conditions will continue across Southern
California through at least this morning…

…A significant winter storm will continue to bring heavy snow and
disruptive ice across much of the South through Saturday morning…

…Pacific Storm to bring lower elevation rain/mountain snow to the
Pacific Northwest…Great Basin and Rockies through Saturday…

Modified arctic air combined with a moisture-laden area of low pressure
along the Gulf Coast will continue to allow for a broad area of winter
weather impacts from the Lower Mississippi Valley to the Southeast today
into early Saturday morning. Areas of light to moderate snow will
translate east from eastern Oklahoma, southern Missouri and Arkansas this
morning into and across the Tennessee Valley, eventually reaching the
Mid-Atlantic region tonight. Snowfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches are
expected from near Memphis into the central Appalachians. Sleet and
freezing rain will affect locations just south of the snowfall, with ice
accumulations locally in excess of 0.25 inches from far northeastern
Alabama into northern Georgia and upstate South Carolina. Light snowfall
accumulations (1 to 3 inches) are anticipated farther north from the Ohio
Valley into northern portions of the Mid-Atlantic region. Below average
temperatures from the south-central to southeastern U.S. will moderate
into the weekend but remain roughly 5 to 15 degrees below average on
Saturday into Sunday.

Across the western U.S., strong high pressure over the Great Basin will
begin to weaken during the day today, but Critical fire weather conditions
will continue over coastal locations of Southern California through the
remainder of this morning with localized gusts to near 60 mph. While wind
gusts are likely to weaken into this afternoon and evening, remnant gusty
winds and low relative humidities will continue dangerous conditions into
the afternoon and evening.

Elsewhere across the western U.S., a quick moving cold front will sweep
across the Northwest and Great Basin today, bringing coastal rain to the
Pacific Northwest and mountain snow to the Cascades, northern Great Basin
into the northern and central Rockies. Low pressure associated with the
western U.S. storm system will reach the northern Plains and Upper Midwest
on Saturday/Saturday night, resulting in light (1 to 3 inch) accumulations
for eastern Montana, North Dakota into the Upper Mississippi Valley.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Jan 09 2025
Valid 12Z Thu Jan 09 2025 – 12Z Sat Jan 11 2025

…Decreasing light lake-effect snow downwind from the Lower Great Lakes
on Thursday…

…A developing Winter Storm will produce snow and rain/freezing rain,
icing, over parts of the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley on
Thursday and over the Lower Mississippi Valley to the southern
Mid-Atlantic on Friday…

…Light snow over parts of the Upper Midwest on Thursday; Light to
moderate snow over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley and light snow over parts
of the Northeast on Friday…

…There is a Critical Risk of fire weather over parts of Southern
California on Thursday…

A developing winter storm will move out of Northern Mexico, advancing
eastward to the Western Gulf Coast by Thursday evening and to the Central
Gulf Coast by Friday morning. The storm will move northeastward to western
Florida by Friday evening and to the southern Mid-Atlantic Coast by
Saturday.

The system will produce a swath of heavy snow along with ice, freezing
rain, from the Southern Plains to the southern Mid-Atlantic by Saturday.
Snowfall totals from 6-8 inches will develop from southeast Oklahoma
through western North Carolina. A quarter inch of ice, freezing rain, will
occur from the Southern Plains to the Lower Mississippi Valley. On Friday,
icing, freezing rain, will move over parts of the Southeast, Southern
Appalachians, and southern Mid-Atlantic, with amounts around a tenth of an
inch.

A large area of moderate winter weather impacts will be associated with
the storm. Some impacts are widespread closures, treacherous travel,
scattered power outages, and downed branches expected from the Red River
Valley and southern Ozarks through the Lower Mississippi Valley, Tennessee
Valley, and Southern Appalachians. Some of the heaviest snowfall will be
over the Tennessee Valley, which will be 6 inches on Friday.

Meanwhile, on Thursday, strong high pressure over parts of the Northern
Intermountain Region and Great Basin will set up Santa Ana winds over
Southern California. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Critical Risk of fire
weather over parts of Southern California. Winds of 20 to 40 mph, with
stronger winds in the terrain, low relative humidity, and dry fuels have
contributed to the dangerous conditions.

Moreover, on Thursday, exiting upper-level energy and developing weak
upper-level ridging over the Great Lakes will create waning light
lake-effect snow and upslope snow over parts of the Lower Great Lakes and
the Northeast that will end by Friday morning.

Furthermore, upper-level energy over the Northern Intermountain Region
southward to the Southwest will develop a front extending from the
Northern/Central Plains to the Southern Rockies that will move eastward to
the Upper Great Lakes to the Southern Plains by Friday morning. The
boundary will begin to dissipate by Friday evening. However, the
associated upper-level trough will extend from the Great Lakes
southwestward to Northeastern Mexico by Saturday.

On Thursday, the system will produce light snow over parts of the Upper
Midwest to the Central Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley. In addition, on
Friday, the boundary will deliver light to moderate snow over parts of the
Great Lakes/Ohio Valley and Central Appalachians. Additionally, light snow
will develop over parts of the Northeast.

In the meantime, overnight Thursday, a new front will move onshore over
the Pacific Northwest and race eastward to the Northern Plains to the
Great Basin by Saturday. The system will trigger coastal rain and
higher-elevation snow over parts of the Pacific Northwest on Friday and
overnight Friday moderate to heavy snow over parts of the Northern
Intermountain Region. By Saturday, the light to moderate snow will expand
into parts of the Northern/Central Rockies and Great Basin.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed Jan 08 2025
Valid 12Z Wed Jan 08 2025 – 12Z Fri Jan 10 2025

…Moderate to heavy lake-effect snow downwind from the Great Lakes on
Wednesday…

…A developing Winter Storm will produce snow and rain/freezing rain,
icing, over parts of the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley late
Wednesday night into Thursday…

…Light to moderate snow over parts of the Northern Rockies/Northern
Plains and Southern Rockies/Southern High Plains on Wednesday: Light snow
over parts of the Upper Midwest on Thursday…

…There is an Extremely Critical Fire Weather Area for portions of the
Southern California Coast…

Cold high pressure extending from the Central Plains to western Ontario,
Canada, moves to the Mid-Atlantic by Friday. The cold air and upper-level
energy will aid in producing moderate to heavy lake-effect snow downwind
from the Great Lakes on Wednesday and will begin to taper off on Thursday.
In addition, moderate to heavy upslope snow will develop over parts of
the Northeast, and light to moderate upslope snow over the Central
Appalachians will develop on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, strong high pressure over parts of the Great Basin and low
pressure dropping into the Gulf of California will continue to support
Santa Ana winds and a dangerous fire weather event over portions of
Southern California on Wednesday. The SPC has issued a Extremely Critical
Fire Weather Area along portions of the Southern California Coast.
Sustained winds reaching 30 to 40 mph, with stronger winds in the terrain,
along with low relative humidity, and dry fuels will contribute to the
dangerous conditions. Critical fire weather conditions are expected to
continue on Thursday for portions of Southern California.

Moreover, on Wednesday, a deep upper low over Northwestern Mexico will
open and move to the Southern Rockies to the Southern Plains by Friday.
The system will create impactful winter weather on Thursday for portions
of the Southern Plains before intensifying as it expands across the Lower
Mississippi Valley overnight Thursday into Friday. Snowfall totals will be
the greatest, 4 to 8 inches, from portions of North Texas across Arkansas
into the Tennessee Valley. Hazardous driving conditions can be expected
through the swath of winter weather. Additionally, rain/freezing rain will
develop over parts of Central Texas into southern Arkansas and northern
Louisiana. Over this region, scattered ice amounts of 0.10 inches will
fall on Thursday.

Furthermore, additional upper-level energy will move over the Pacific
Northwest/Northern Intermountain Region Wednesday morning and reach the
Southern Rockies and the Upper Great Lakes by Friday. The energy will aid
in the development of a new front over the Northern/Central Plains into
the Central Rockies that will move eastward to the Upper Great Lakes to
the Southern Plains by Friday.

The new energy will create a short-lived light coastal rain and
higher-elevation snow over parts of the Pacific Northwest on early
Wednesday morning. By Wednesday evening, light snow will develop over
parts of the Northern Rockies, expanding into parts of the Northern Plains
and Central Rockies by Thursday morning. By Thursday night, light snow
will extend from the Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley to the
Central/Southern Rockies and Central/Southern Plains. By Friday morning,
the light snow will move into the Upper Great Lakes and Middle Mississippi
Valley, while continuing over the Southern Plains.

Moreover, by Friday, a new front moving onshore over the Pacific Northwest
will trigger coastal rain and higher-elevation snow over parts of the
Pacific Northwest.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Jan 06 2025
Valid 12Z Mon Jan 06 2025 – 12Z Wed Jan 08 2025

…Moderate to heavy snow from the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic through
late Monday night…

…Light rain/freezing rain over parts of the Ohio Valley to the
Mid-Atlantic on Monday...

…There is a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts
of the Southeast on Monday…

A significant storm over the Ohio Valley will move eastward off the
Mid-Atlantic Coast by Monday evening. On Monday, a major disruptive winter
storm will affect the area from the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic,
leading to severe travel delays. The storm will produce moderate to heavy
snow from parts of the Ohio Valley through to the Mid-Atlantic. The snow
will continue into late Monday night over the Mid-Atlantic.

The system will produce 6-12 inches of snow across the Mid-Atlantic,
including the Washington, D.C. metro area. Travelers should anticipate
significant disruptions. An additional 2-4 inches of snow will fall across
portions of the Ohio Valley and Central Appalachians, where travel
disruptions will continue.

Furthermore, light icing/freezing rain will develop over parts of Ohio
Valley to the Mid-Atlantic, ending by Monday evening over the
Mid-Atlantic. Dangerous travel conditions will develop over the region.

Moreover, as the associated front moves across the Southeast, strong to
severe thunderstorms will develop over parts of the region on Monday.
Therefore, the SPC has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Southeast through Tuesday morning. The
hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, isolated tornadoes, and a minimal threat of hail.

In addition, on Monday, light lake-effect snow will be ongoing downwind
from the Great Lakes and upslope snow over parts of the Northeast. In the
wake of the storm, on Tuesday, light to moderate lake-effect snow will
continue downwind from the Great Lakes and into upslope regions of
Northern New England.

Meanwhile, on Monday, upper-level energy over the Northwest will move
southward to Northwestern Mexico by Tuesday night, creating a deep
upper-level trough over the Southwest. The energy will produce coastal
rain and higher-elevation snow over parts of the Pacific Northwest and
Northern California through Monday afternoon. Light snow will continue
over the Northern Intermountain Region, the Great Basin, and the Northern
Rockies by Monday evening.

The light snow will expand into parts of the Central Rockies overnight
Monday and into the Southern Rockies on Tuesday. By Tuesday evening, light
snow will expand into parts of the Central/Southern High Plains. Further,
additional upper-level energy will come onshore over the Pacific Northwest
Tuesday evening into Wednesday. The new energy will create light coastal
rain and higher-elevation snow over parts of the Pacific Northwest.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Jan 05 2025
Valid 12Z Sun Jan 05 2025 – 12Z Tue Jan 07 2025

…Heavy snow from the Central Plains to the Mid-Atlantic through late
Monday night with damaging ice, freezing rain, accumulations…

…0.25 to 0.50 inches of freezing rain over parts of the Middle
Mississippi/Ohio Valley on Sunday and light freezing rain over parts of
the Mid-Atlantic on Monday…

…There is an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms over
parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday…

A significant storm over the Southern Plains will move eastward to the
Mid-Atlantic Coast by Monday evening. On Sunday, a major disruptive winter
storm will affect the area from Kansas to Ohio Valley/Central
Appalachians, leading to severe travel delays. The storm will reach the
Mid-Atlantic region by Sunday evening and continue to impact the area
through Monday. The storm will produce heavy snowfall and wind gusts
exceeding 40 mph, creating blizzard conditions in parts of Kansas and
Missouri. The snow will significantly reduce visibilities, and snowfall
amounts will surpass 15 inches (the heaviest in a decade), which will make
travel extremely hazardous, with impassable roads. Additionally, a band of
8-14 inches of snow is expected to extend from northeast Missouri through
the Central Appalachians, with a few inches of sleet likely in southern
Illinois and Indiana. Travelers should anticipate significant disruptions
along this path.

Furthermore, significant icing/freezing rain will spread from central
Kansas through the Central Appalachians into Monday. Dangerous travel
conditions, widespread tree damage, and prolonged power outages are
expected along this corridor. Some regions may experience ice
accumulations exceeding half an inch.

On Monday, moderate to heavy snow will extend from southern Illinois to
the Mid-Atlantic. In addition, widespread light freezing rain will also
extend from Kentucky to the Mid-Atlantic. The snow will wind down by
Tuesday morning, with light snow over parts of the Central Appalachians.

Furthermore, on Sunday, as the associated front crosses the Southern
Plains and moves into the Lower Mississippi Valley, severe thunderstorms
will develop over parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the
SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms over
parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley through Monday morning. The hazards
associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.

Strong to severe thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Southeast as
the boundary moves into the Southeast on Monday. Therefore, the SPC has
issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of
the Southeast from Monday into Tuesday morning. The hazards associated
with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, a few tornados, and a minimal threat of hail.

Meanwhile, cold air moving over the Great Lakes and upper-level energy
over the Great Lakes and Northeast will create moderate to heavy
lake-effect snow downwind from Lake Ontario through Monday morning. In
addition, light to moderate lake-effect snow will develop downwind from
the Upper Great Lakes and Lake Erie through Tuesday morning.

Furthermore, weak onshore flow and multiple weakening fronts move onshore
over the Northwest. The systems will produce coastal rain and
higher-elevation snow over parts of the Pacific Northwest and Northern
California through Monday afternoon. Light snow will continue over the
Northern Intermountain Region, the Great Basin, and the Northern Rockies
overnight Monday.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Jan 04 2025
Valid 12Z Sat Jan 04 2025 – 12Z Mon Jan 06 2025

…Heavy snow from the Central Plains to the Ohio Valley on Sunday; Heavy
lake-effect snow downwind from Lake Ontario on Saturday…

…Moderate to heavy snow from the Northern High Plains to the Central
Plains on Saturday; 0.25 inches of freezing rain over parts of the Middle
Mississippi/Ohio Valley on Sunday…

…There is an Enhanced Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over
parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday…

On Saturday, low pressure over the Southern High Plains will move eastward
to the Ohio Valley by Monday. The storm will create disruptive winter
weather from Saturday to Monday. The major winter storm will bring
significant disruptions to the Central Plains by late Saturday, spreading
to the Ohio Valley on Sunday. Severe travel delays are likely, with the
storm reaching the Mid-Atlantic by Sunday night into Monday. On Saturday,
the storm will produce moderate to heavy snow from the Northern High
Plains to the Central Plains.

Moreover, widespread heavy snow will accompany the storm. Heavy snowfall
is expected across areas from central Kansas to Ohio, especially along and
north of Interstate 70, with a 60-90% chance of at least 8 inches of snow
on Sunday. For some, this could be the heaviest snowfall in over a decade.
Additionally, moderate to heavy snow will develop over parts of the
northern Mid-Atlantic overnight Sunday into Monday.

In addition, blizzard conditions will develop over the Central Plains.
Wind gusts over 35 mph combined with heavy snow will create blizzard
conditions by Sunday morning. Whiteout conditions will make travel
extremely hazardous, with impassable roads and a high risk of motorists
becoming stranded.

Furthermore, significant icing/freezing rain for Middle Mississippi/Ohio
Valleys. Sleet and freezing rain are expected from eastern Kansas and the
Ozarks to the Ohio Valley. Dangerous travel is anticipated, with tree
damage and power outages likely in areas with over a quarter-inch of ice
accumulation. Overnight Sunday, the storm will produce additional icing in
the Central Appalachians.

On Sunday, as the front crosses the Southern Plains and moves into the
Lower Mississippi Valley, severe thunderstorms will develop over parts of
the Lower Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the SPC has issued an Enhanced
Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Lower
Mississippi Valley from Sunday through Monday morning. The hazards
associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.

Meanwhile, cold air moving over the Great Lakes and upper-level energy
over the Great Lakes and Northeast will create heavy lake-effect snow
downwind from Lake Ontario through Sunday morning. In addition, moderate
lake-effect snow will develop downwind from the Upper Great Lakes and Lake
Erie through Sunday morning. Furthermore, light upslope snow will develop
over parts of the Central Appalachians on Saturday. On Sunday, the
lake-effect snow will become light over most of the Lakes, while moderate
to heavy snow will continue downwind from Lake Ontario. Light to moderate
snow will develop over parts of the Northeast.

Furthermore, weak onshore flow and multiple weakening fronts move onshore
over the Northwest. The system will produce coastal rain and
higher-elevation snow over parts of the Pacific Northwest and Northern
California through Monday.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Jan 03 2025
Valid 12Z Fri Jan 03 2025 – 12Z Sun Jan 05 2025

…Heavy lake-effect snow downwind from Lakes Erie and Ontario; Moderate
to heavy lake-effect snow downwind from the Upper Great Lakes…

… Moderate to heavy snow or the Cascades, Sierra Nevada Mountains, and
the higher elevation of the West; 0.1 inches of freezing rain over parts
of the Central Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley on Saturday…

…Moderate to heavy rain over parts of Pacific Northwest and Northern
California on Friday…

Cold high pressure over the Plains will slowly move eastward to the
Southeast/Central Appalachians by Sunday. The cold air and upper-level
energy over the Great Lakes and Northeast will create heavy lake-effect
snow downwind from Lakes Erie and Ontario through Sunday. In addition,
moderate to heavy lake-effect snow will develop downwind from the Upper
Great Lakes through Sunday, too. Furthermore, moderate to heavy upslope
snow will develop over parts of the Central Appalachians on Friday.

Meanwhile, a front over the Eastern Pacific will move onshore over the
West Coast and move southeastward to the Southern Plains by Sunday.
Moisture associated with the system will produce moderate to heavy rain
over parts of the Pacific Northwest and Northern California on Friday.
Snow will develop over parts of the Cascades, Northern Intermountain
Region, and Northern Rockies. By early afternoon, the boundary will pass
the Northwest and California, rain will change over to snow over the
Southern Cascades into the Sierra Nevada Mountains through Saturday
morning.

A weakening front will move close to the Pacific Northwest Coast by late
Saturday morning and dissipate by Sunday. The system will bring more
coastal rain and higher�elevation snow over parts of the Pacific
Northwest and Northern California through Sunday.

Furthermore, by Saturday afternoon, the lead front will move to the
Southern High Plains and into the Southern Plains by Sunday. The storm
will produce significant wintry weather, with impacts over the Central
Plains by late Saturday and the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Sunday.
Additionally, the storm will create severe travel disruptions.

Moreover, areas in the Central Plains and Central Mississippi Valley,
especially along and north of Interstate 70, are likely to experience
heavy snowfall, with a high chance (60-90 percent) of at least 6 inches of
snow from late Saturday into Sunday. Significant sleet and freezing rain
are anticipated from eastern Kansas and the Ozarks extending eastward to
the Tennessee and lower Ohio Valleys, also on Saturday into Sunday.

Further, rain will develop over parts of the Southern Plains/Lower
Mississippi Valley overnight Saturday, and some areas of showers and
thunderstorms will develop by Sunday morning.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Jan 02 2025
Valid 12Z Thu Jan 02 2025 – 12Z Sat Jan 04 2025

…Long duration lake-effect snow event continues downwind of the Great
Lakes…

…Periods of locally heavy coastal rains and higher elevation snow
continue for much of the northwestern U.S….

…Arctic air surges south from the Northern Plains through the Central
and Eastern U.S….

Strong northwesterly winds on the backside of a departing low pressure
system that is moving into the Canadian maritime will generate moderate to
heavy lake enhanced snow downwind of the Great Lakes over the next few
days. Anywhere between 6-12 inches of snow with isolated higher amounts
may accumulate downwind of the Lakes by Saturday morning. A low pressure
system tracking across the Central U.S. will produce a light swath of
snowfall from Iowa across the Ohio Valley today and into the Central
Appalachians on Friday. Snowfall accumulations of 6-12 inches are possible
over the Central Appalachians.

A series of low pressure systems will generate rain and high elevation
snow across much of the Northwest over the next couple of days. The
moisture plume associated with the first system will be directed at the
northern California coast and Oregon today, where an isolated threat of
Flash Flooding exists. Snow showers continue over the Northern/Central
Rockies. Rain and snow showers expand in coverage across the Northwest on
Friday. Accumulating snow is possible over the highest elevations of the
Cascades, Sierra and Northern Rockies. Heavy rainfall expands into the
upslope areas of the Sierra as the cold front pushes through.

High pressure builds over the Great Plains, sending frigid arctic air down
through the Central and Eastern U.S. through the weekend. Meanwhile, the
West and Southern Plains will experience above average temperatures. There
also continues to be an elevated fire weather threat over parts of
southern California today.