Day 1 – 5 Weather Forecast

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Jan 31 2025
Valid 12Z Fri Jan 31 2025 – 12Z Sun Feb 02 2025

…Precipitation returns to the West Coast, with atmospheric river
activity expected to bring heavy rain and flooding concerns to portions of
central and northern California…

…Much needed rainfall expected across the Upper Tennessee Valley,
Southern Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic, with light wintry precipitation
expected for New England…

…Above average temperatures are expected across large sections of the
country going into the weekend with exception to the Northwest and the
Northeast where temperatures will be trending gradually below normal…

After several weeks of no precipitation along large portions of the West
Coast, a considerably more active West Coast weather pattern will unfold
over the next few days which will include the arrival of multiple Pacific
frontal systems. This will include the arrival again of well-defined
atmospheric river activity also into especially central and northern
California. Much of the rain and higher elevation snowfall will be
welcomed across the Pacific Northwest, but for California, the concern
especially by Saturday and Sunday will be heavy to excessive rainfall that
will lead to flooding concerns. This will include the Bay Area and
interior areas of the Sacramento Valley and also the foothills of the
Sierra Nevada. A Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) of excessive rainfall has been
depicted by the Weather Prediction Center across these areas, and while
there will be certainly benefits to the rainfall, the expectation is that
a front will stall out across central California and foster a persistence
of atmospheric river conditions and heavy rains that will drive flooding
concerns. Temperatures across the West will initially be above normal for
many locations, but the passage of the frontal activity over the Pacific
Northwest should allow temperatures here to trend gradually below normal,
and this will also allow for lowering snow levels in time.

Meanwhile, a storm system crossing through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys
will be advancing across the central and southern Appalachians and the
Mid-Atlantic states today through tonight which will bring moderate to
locally heavy rainfall. Generally these rains will be quite beneficial,
but there may be sufficient rainfall in conjunction with snowmelt over the
higher terrain of the central Appalachians to bring a threat of flooding.
A Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) of excessive rainfall has been depicted
across the higher terrain of West Virginia. A portion of this storm system
will also bring heavy to potentially excessive rainfall today across areas
of northern Illinois. However, the northern edge of the precipitation
shield as it lifts off to the northeast into parts of New York and New
England will encounter a sufficient amount of cold air for some light
snowfall and also locally some concerns for sleet and freezing rain. This
storm system will exit the region by early this weekend, with colder
temperatures arriving in its wake and especially across the Northeast.

By Sunday, a new storm system related to the unsettled weather impacting
the West Coast will begin to eject east out across the northern Plains,
and this will bring a threat for several inches of accumulating snow to
the Upper Midwest. Colder temperatures will begin to settle south from
Canada in the wake of this system across the northern High Plains.
However, above average temperatures though are expected in general across
much of the country outside of the Northwest and the Northeast, and in
some cases across the Plains and Midwest, the temperatures this weekend
will be as much as 15 to 20 degrees above normal. Many areas of the
Southeast and the Southwest will also be warmer than normal with highs as
much as average 5 to 10+ degrees above average.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
210 AM EST Thu Jan 30 2025
Valid 12Z Thu Jan 30 2025 – 12Z Sat Feb 01 2025

…Heavy rain, severe weather, and flash flooding possible from the
southern Plains to the Mid/Lower Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys
today…

…Widespread precipitation, including heavy mountain snow, to return to
the Northwest, northern California, and the northern Rockies…

A low pressure system will move across the south-Central U.S. today then
track towards the East and Northeast on Friday. Southerly winds will bring
warm moist air up from the Gulf, fueling widespread showers and
thunderstorms across the southern Plains and Mississippi Valley.
Conditions will be favorable for some strong to severe thunderstorms from
East Texas through the Lower Mississippi Valley today, and potential
severe storm hazards could include damaging winds, hail, and perhaps a
tornado or two. In addition to the severe weather threat, heavy rainfall
will have to potential to cause isolated to scattered instances of flash
flooding from East Texas through the Mississippi Valley to the Lower Ohio
Valley today. While thunderstorms impact the south-Central U.S., cold air
on the backside of the low pressure system will support wintry weather
across New Mexico and Colorado, with heavy snow potential in the higher
terrain.

The low pressure system will move towards the East and Northeast on Friday
while weakening, and precipitation chances will increase for most areas
east of the Mississippi River. The severe threat will shift east on Friday
as well, moving into the central/eastern Gulf Coast region where a few
strong storms will be possible. Late Friday, moisture from the system
should spread into the Northeast where it will interact with a cold front
sagging south into the region, producing wintry weather across the eastern
Great Lakes and Northeast. Accumulating snowfall is expected to be
limited, with only minor accumulations across New England. The system will
exit off the East Coast by Saturday morning, and dry conditions will
return.

For the West, dry weather will persist until a frontal system approaches
the West Coast late today. This system will push into the Northwest on
Friday, then another front will follow close on its heels late Friday into
Saturday. Widespread precipitation is expected across the Northwest,
northern California, and the northern Rockies. Heavy rain along the coast
will result in heightened flooding concerns, especially in and around
steep terrain. Inland, heavy snow is expected in the Olympics, Cascades,
northern Rockies, and potentially into portions of the Sierra Nevada.

Temperatures will be well above average for most of the Central and
Eastern U.S. through the end of the week, with the exception of the
Northeast where cold air will settle in behind a cold front. The warmest
anomalies are forecast to be in the Upper Midwest where high temperatures
in the upper 40s and lower 50s may rival a handful of daily temperature
records today. Elsewhere, temperatures will be near normal for much of the
West, but below average temperatures will linger in the Southwest today
and may develop along the West Coast from Washington to northern
California Friday and Saturday.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed Jan 29 2025
Valid 12Z Wed Jan 29 2025 – 12Z Fri Jan 31 2025

…Heavy rain, severe weather, and flash flooding possible from the
Southern Plains to to the Mid/Lower Mississippi Valley…

…Heavy snow and snow squalls possible in the Great Lakes and Northeast
today…

…Atmospheric river to bring heavy rain and mountain snow to the Pacific
Northwest and northern California late this week into the weekend…

A strong but slow moving low pressure system will push across the
southern/central Plains and into the Mississippi Valley on Thursday. Warm,
moist air from the Gulf will stream into the south-Central U.S. ahead of
the system and provide support for widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Heavy rainfall in expected over the southern Plains today and from eastern
Texas through the Mid/Lower Mississippi Valley on Thursday. Isolated to
scattered instances of flash flooding will be possible, especially in
urban and poor drainage areas and areas that experience training/repeat
convection. Conditions will also be favorable for isolated strong to
severe thunderstorms from Central Texas east through the Lower Mississippi
Valley today and Thursday. On the backside of the low pressure system,
colder air will allow for wintry weather over portions of the Four Corners
states, and locally heavy snow will be possible in the higher terrain of
northern New Mexico and southern Colorado. This low pressure system will
track northeast into the Midwest on Friday, and precipitation chances will
spread towards the East Coast and Northeast.

To the north, a couple of lows will swing across southern Canada and clip
the northern Great Lakes and Northeast, producing chances for wintry
weather. The first low will pass over the Northeast today, pushing a
potent cold front south across the Great Lakes and Northeast. Snow squalls
will be possible today for portions of the eastern Great Lakes, Northeast,
and even into the northern Mid-Atlantic as the front drops south. Snow
squalls may cause intense bursts of heavy snow with gusty winds, resulting
in periods of low visibility and dangerous driving conditions.
Accumulating snow is expected from the eastern Great Lakes through
interior New England, with the heaviest snow likely downwind of Lakes
Ontario and Erie and in the mountains of New Hampshire and Vermont. These
regions can expect a brief break from wintry weather on Thursday as a warm
front lifts north, then more wintry weather will be possible on Friday as
the second low moves across the Great Lakes.

Mainly dry weather is expected in the West with high pressure dominating
the weather pattern through Thursday. On Friday, high pressure will be
shunted east as a low pressure system approaches the West Coast. This
system will aim a stream of Pacific moisture (atmospheric river) at the
coast, focusing initially on the Pacific Northwest on Friday then shifting
south into northern California on Saturday. Widespread heavy rain and
mountain snow are expected, and flooding concerns will be heightened along
the coast.

The weather pattern will favor well above normal temperatures through the
end of the work week for much of the Central and Eastern U.S., except for
the Northeast where below normal temperatures are expected through
Thursday after a cold front passes through. High temperatures are expected
to be 10 to 20+ degrees above normal, with the greatest anomalies over the
northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest where a handful of daily high
temperature records will be possible on Thursday. Below normal
temperatures will likely linger from southern California through the
Southwest through Thursday, then return to near normal on Friday.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Jan 28 2025
Valid 12Z Tue Jan 28 2025 – 12Z Thu Jan 30 2025

…Locally heavy snow and snow squalls possible for the Great Lakes and
Northeast through Wednesday…

…Flooding rain and severe thunderstorms possible from the southern
Plains to the Mid/Lower Mississippi Valley Wednesday into Thursday…

…Well above average temperatures expected across much of the Central and
Eastern U.S., while below average temperatures linger in southern
California and the Southwest…

A slow moving low pressure system will gradually push east across the
Southwest and into the southern Plains over the next few days. This system
will produce some wintry weather in the Four Corners states, but a lack of
moisture may limit precipitation amounts. The heaviest snow is expected
late tonight through Thursday in the higher elevations in northern New
Mexico and southern Colorado where more than 6 inches of snow could fall.
As the system emerges in the Plains Wednesday into Thursday, it will
trigger widespread showers and thunderstorms from the southern Plains to
the Mid/Lower Mississippi Valley. There will be a risk of severe
thunderstorms in Texas, and potential storm hazards could include hail and
damaging wind gusts. Isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding
will also be possible from Central/North Texas to the Mid-Mississippi
Valley, especially in urban and poor drainage areas and places with
training/repeat convection.

While the slow low impacts the south-Central U.S., a swift moving Clipper
type low pressure system will swing across the Great Lakes and Northeast,
bringing wintry weather to these regions. A leading cold front will sink
south across the Northeast today, then the main low will dip into the
northern Great Lakes tonight, swing across the northeast on Wednesday, and
push offshore Wednesday night. Snow squalls will be possible as these
features move across the Great Lakes and Northeast, which would create
intense bursts of heavy snowfall with gusty winds, resulting in low
visibility and dangerous driving conditions. Moderate to locally heavy
snow accumulations are expected from the Great Lakes into New England
today through Wednesday.

Temperatures will be below average across southern California and the
Southwest under the influence of the upper low, and below average
temperature are also expected across portions of the Great Lakes and
Northeast after a cold front sinks south into these regions today.
Sandwiched between the Southwest and Northeast corners of the nation, much
of the Central and Eastern U.S. will experience well above average
temperatures through Thursday. The highest anomalies will be in the
north-Central U.S. where highs are forecast to be 15-25 degrees above
normal, which could challenge a few daily high temperature records in the
northern Plains and Upper Midwest.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Jan 27 2025
Valid 12Z Mon Jan 27 2025 – 12Z Wed Jan 29 2025

…Heavy rain and localized flash flood risk continues for portions of
southern California today…

…Elevated fire weather concerns for portions of Arizona and New Mexico
today…

…Heavy rain possible across the southern Plains on Wednesday…

A slow-moving closed upper low will linger over the southwestern U.S.
through mid-week while a low pressure system strengthens at the surface.
This low pressure system will bring chances for rain and mountain snow to
the Southwest today and Tuesday, then the system will push into the
southern Plains on Wednesday. Given the increased sensitivity from recent
wildfires in southern California, moderate to locally heavy rain could
lead to debris flows and flash flooding in burn scar areas today. To the
east, gusty winds and dry conditions will lead to elevated fire weather
concerns for portions of Arizona and New Mexico today, but precipitation
is expected to reduce fire weather concerns Tuesday into Wednesday.

As the low pressure system emerges in the southern Plains on Wednesday, it
will interact with warm moist air in place over the south-Central U.S.
resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall
may result in isolated instances of flash flooding in Central/North Texas
and southern Oklahoma, mainly in urban and poor drainage areas.

Showers and thunderstorms will also be possible in the Southeast as a
frontal boundary pushes across the region. The front should push offshore
on Tuesday and high pressure will move over the Southeast in it’s wake. To
the north, rounds of snow are expected across the Great Lakes and
Northeast through Wednesday. Initially, a cold front sinking south into
the area will bring snow today, then a clipper type low pressure system
will quickly swing across the Great Lakes Tuesday into Wednesday,
triggering another round of snow. Snow totals will likely be highest
downwind of the Great Lakes where lake effect enhancement is expected.

Elsewhere, dry conditions are expected for much of the Northwest and
north-Central U.S. under the influence of high pressure.

Temperatures are expected to be below normal through Wednesday across the
Southwest under the closed upper low, and below normal temperatures will
likely develop across the Northeast after a cold front drops south across
the region today. The weather pattern will favor above normal temperatures
in the north-Central U.S. today, and above normal temperatures will expand
to the South and East by Wednesday.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Jan 25 2025
Valid 12Z Sat Jan 25 2025 – 12Z Mon Jan 27 2025

…Precipitation in southern California will ease wildfire conditions but
could result in localized debris flows and flash flooding…

…Elevated wildfire concerns over portions of Arizona this weekend…

A deep upper low and associated frontal system are working their way south
across the western U.S., bringing snow from the Great Basin east to the
Rockies and central High Plains. The upper low is forecast to gradually
stall, resulting in persistent low pressure over the Southwest through
Monday. As low pressure strengthens, winds and precipitation will increase
across the region. Strong gusty winds and dry conditions will likely
result in elevated wildfire concerns over portions of Arizona while
precipitation eases fire weather conditions in southern California. Due to
increased sensitivity from recent wildfires, moderate to locally heavy
rain could result in debris flows and flash flooding in or around burn
scars in southern California.

East of the Rockies, low pressure tracking along the U.S.-Canada border
will push a couple of frontal systems south across the Central U.S. while
high pressure builds over the Southeast today. The leading front will
extend from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes, but precipitation
chances will be limited to the southern Plains and Great Lakes regions.
The second front will trigger snow showers over the northern Plains and
Upper Midwest today before catching up with the leading front this
afternoon. The southern portion of the front will slowly sag towards the
Gulf Coast Sunday into Monday while the northern portion pushes across the
Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue
in the southern Plains and spread into the Lower Mississippi Valley and
Southeast. Locally heavy rainfall may lead to isolated instances of flash
flooding on Sunday for portions of the Texas Gulf Coast and Lower
Mississippi Valley. Wintry precipitation chances will also spread into the
northern/central Appalachians and interior New England, with the locally
heavy snow possible in northern New York downwind of Lake Ontario.

Today will mark the start of a warming trend in temperatures along the
Gulf and East Coasts. High temperatures will generally be 5-15 degrees
below average this afternoon, then return to near average values Sunday
and Monday. A cooler air mass will move across the Central U.S. in the
wake of a cold front this weekend, with the coldest anomalies expected in
the Rockies and High Plains where temperatures will be 15-25 degrees below
average today. An eastward moving warm front will bring above average
temperatures to the north-Central U.S. by Monday. West of the Rockies,
temperatures will generally be below average under the influence of the
upper low, and precipitation and cloud cover will result in highs falling
to 10-20 degrees below average in the Southwest.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Jan 24 2025
Valid 12Z Fri Jan 24 2025 – 12Z Sun Jan 26 2025

…Elevated fire weather conditions continue in southern California,
precipitation expected to bring relief Saturday into Sunday…

…Below average temperatures continue in the South and East, gradual warm
up anticipated this weekend…

A deep upper level low will drop into the western U.S. today, pushing a
surface frontal system south across the region. The system is forecast to
move across the Northwest and northern/central Rockies today and move into
the Four Corners region and Southwest this weekend. Widespread light to
moderate snow is expected across the Intermountain West, and heavy snow
may be possible in some of the higher elevations. The upper low will
become nearly stationary over the Southwest this weekend, causing a low
pressure system to spin up along the California coast that will likely
bring beneficial precipitation to southern California, which has been
suffering from elevated wildfire conditions over the past few weeks. Dry
conditions and elevated wildfire conditions will persist before
precipitation arrives on Saturday. As low pressure strengthens, the
pressure gradient across the West will tighten, resulting in elevated
winds across much of the West on Saturday and Sunday.

Elsewhere, low pressure tracking across the northern tier will push a
couple of relatively weaker cold fronts south across the Central U.S.
while high pressure builds over the East. The first front will drop south
across the northern and central Plains today causing low pressure and high
winds to develop in the lee of the Rockies. The low will push into the
southern Plains with the cold front on Saturday and approach the Gulf
Coast on Sunday. Moisture streaming ahead of the front will support
showers and thunderstorms in the southern Plains and Lower Mississippi
Valley Saturday night into Sunday. A second cold front will drop into the
northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Saturday, but dissipate over the
Central Plains on Sunday. These two systems will likely produce some snow
showers across the northern tier of the nation through this weekend, and
locally heavy lake effect snow will be possible downwind of the Great
Lakes.

Temperatures will remain below average today and Saturday for most of the
South and East. Some of the most notable departures from average will be
along the Gulf Coast to the Southeast where lows are forecast to be in the
20s and 30s and highs may only reach the 40s and lower 50s. Daytime highs
will likely help to melt snow cover from the recent historic winter storm,
but liquid water from melted snow may refreeze overnight when temperatures
drop below freezing. Temperatures will gradually moderate through the
weekend, trending closer to normal by early next week. Below average
temperatures are also expected in the West underneath the upper low, and
highs could be 15-25 degrees below average in the Rockies over the
weekend.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed Jan 22 2025
Valid 00Z Thu Jan 23 2025 – 00Z Sat Jan 25 2025

…Dangerously cold temperatures and wind chill values to linger for much
of the South and eastern U.S….

…High winds and snow over parts of the Montana through Wednesday
evening…

…Moderate to heavy lake-enhanced snow downwind from the Great Lakes…

…There is a Critical Risk of fire weather over parts of Southern
California…

Bitterly cold high pressure extending from the Mid-Atlantic to Central
Gulf Coast brings temperatures 15 to 25 degrees below average from parts
of the Mid-Atlantic to the Central Gulf Coast. Arctic air will persist in
the Southeast into Thursday with a slow return to normal temperatures
expected by Friday. Multiple record low temperatures and record cold
afternoon highs are forecast Wednesday and Thursday. The associated wind
chills will be zero to 10 degrees above zero across portions of the
Southeast Wednesday night and Thursday morning. The cold temperatures and
wind chills pose a heightened risk of hypothermia, as well as frostbite to
exposed skin. Protect pets, livestock, and exposed plumbing to avoid
over-exposure to the cold. Have a cold weather survival kit if traveling,
and fill up fuel tanks/batteries so that you can stay warm if you become
stranded.

Meanwhile, upper-level energy and upslope flow will produce light snow
over parts of the Northern Rockies from Wednesday evening into Thursday.
Additionally, high wind and snow will occurred through Wednesday evening.
On Thursday, the snow will become light to moderate over the region and
light snow will develop over parts of the Northern Plains on Friday.

Furthermore, a clipper system over the Upper Great Lakes moves into
Eastern Canada by Thursday with the trailing cold front moving off the
Northeast Coast by Friday evening. The system will produce moderate to
heavy lake-enhanced snow over the Upper Great Lakes Wednesday evening into
Thursday. Light snow will also develop over parts of the Ohio Valley,
likewise, Wednesday evening into Thursday. The moderate to heavy
lake-enhanced snow will move into the Lower Great Lakes Thursday evening
into Friday. In addition, light upslope snow will develop over parts of
the Central Appalachians Thursday evening into Friday.

Moreover, strong high pressure over parts of the Northern Intermountain
Region and Great Basin will set up Santa Ana winds over Southern
California. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Critical Risk of fire weather
over parts of Southern California through Thursday. Winds of 20 to 40 mph,
with stronger winds in the terrain, low relative humidity, and dry fuels
have contributed to the dangerous conditions.