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Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted November 20, 2024

By Sig Silber November 20, 2024Uncategorized, weatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed Nov 20 2024
Valid 12Z Wed Nov 20 2024 – 12Z Fri Nov 22 2024

…Back-to-back powerful Pacific storm systems to impact the West Coast
through the end of this week with heavy rain, life-threatening flooding,
strong winds, and higher elevation mountain snow…

…Near blizzard conditions are possible through this evening across the
northern Plains…

…Heavy snow is likely throughout parts of the central Appalachians
beginning on Thursday, with a separate burst of snowfall possible across
northeast Pennsylvania and neighboring regions of the Northeast Thursday
night into Friday...

The active November weather pattern impacting CONUS is forecast to
continue through the end of this week and bring hazardous rain, wind, and
snow for several regions. A significant Pacific storm system and strong
atmospheric river have already started pummeling the West Coast and
Northwest this morning. The very deep low pressure system churning about
300 miles off the coast of Washington is responsible for high winds
impacting much of northern California, Oregon, and Washington. These winds
have already produced numerous power outages, reports of tree damage, and
are expected to create blizzard conditions throughout the Cascades.
Fortunately these winds are expected to gradually subside by midday as the
low pressure system swings away from the region. However, a continuous
plume of ample atmospheric moisture content entering northern California
this morning is forecast to linger through the end of the week and lead to
extreme rainfall totals. Over 10 inches of rainfall across the northern
California coast and inland mountain ranges are likely to increase the
threat of life-threatening flash flooding, rock slides, and debris flows.
As this corridor of heavy rainfall lingers along a stationary boundary
extending into the Pacific Ocean, a separate area of low pressure is
forecast to develop and rapidly strengthen off the Northwest coast on
Friday. This storm will help amplify the atmospheric river streaming into
northern California through Friday morning, exacerbating the flooding
threat. WPC has issued a High Risk (level 4/4) of Excessive Rainfall on
Thursday in order to further highlight this concern. Additionally, another
round of strong winds are anticipated from this second low pressure system
throughout the Northwest to end the week. Residents and visitors residing
or traveling between northern California and Washington are advised to
check road conditions before venturing out, listen to advice from local
officials, review emergency plans, and have multiple ways of receiving
warnings.

For the central U.S. the main weather story will be found throughout the
northern Plains as heavy snow and gusty winds create near blizzard
conditions today. These hazardous weather conditions are resulting from a
slow-moving and gradually weakening low pressure system just north of the
Minnesota-North Dakota border. The greatest snowfall amounts are forecast
across North Dakota, eastern South Dakota, and northwest Minnesota, but
with additional totals today generally under 4 inches. Wind impacts should
be more widespread and extend into eastern Montana and Nebraska as maximum
gusts could exceed 60 mph through tonight. This area of low pressure is
anticipated to rapidly weaken tonight and lead to calmer conditions on
Thursday.

After an extended period of dry and tranquil weather across the Northeast,
the upper level system exiting the northern Plains today will slide
eastward and produce a chance for heavy precipitation in the form of both
rain and snow. The evolution of surface features over the next few days
are forecast to begin with a developing strong and compact low pressure
system over the Great Lakes today, while a cold front quickly pushes
eastward to the Mid-Atlantic by tonight. Showers and maybe a rumble of
thunder may accompany this cold front as rain possibly mixes with snow
spreading across the Great Lakes. By Thursday, a separate area of low
pressure forming along the aforementioned cold front is expected to deepen
and lift northward into the Northeast, while also leading to a blossoming
precipitation shield. Rain is most likely across New England where warmer
air surges from the Atlantic Ocean, but the higher elevations and area
directly underneath the cold upper low pressure system may see
precipitation fall as heavy snow. Probabilities for at least 4 inches of
snow by Friday night are high (70-90%) across northeast Pennsylvania and
the southern Catskill mountains of New York. Impactful snowfall is also
likely to be experienced throughout the Allegheny mountains of West
Virginia, Maryland, and Pennsylvania through the end of the week due to a
longer duration favorable upslope snow setup. Total snowfall amounts in
these higher elevations could add up to a foot.

Elsewhere, high pressure building into the south-central U.S. will create
dry conditions from the lower Mississippi Valley to much of the Plains,
Rockies, and Southwest. The temperature outlook features one final day of
widespread 60s and 70s along the East Coast before a strong cold front
knocks afternoon highs below average through the start of the weekend. The
coldest temperatures when compared to climatology over the next few days
are forecast across the northern Plains (highs in the 20s) and Ohio Valley
(highs in the 30s and 40s).

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted November 19, 2024

By Sig Silber November 19, 2024weatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Nov 19 2024
Valid 12Z Tue Nov 19 2024 – 12Z Thu Nov 21 2024

…Powerful Pacific low pressure system to produce significant high wind
impacts and heavy mountain snow across the Northwest, while a strong
atmospheric river takes aim at northern California by Wednesday…

…Potent storm system over the northern Plains to produce gusty winds and
locally heavy snow throughout the region before a redeveloping area of low
pressure brings unsettled weather to the Great Lakes, central
Appalachians, and Northeast from midweek onward…

…Heavy rain and flash flooding potential continues throughout portions
of the central and eastern Gulf Coast today…

No shortage of active weather across the Nation this week as two separate
strong low pressure systems produce hazardous conditions in the form of
high winds, heavy rain, and snowfall. Starting with the Pacific Northwest,
a rapidly strengthening and extremely powerful low pressure system
forecast to pass roughly 300 miles west of the Olympic Peninsula tonight
is anticipated to begin impacting the region today. Damaging winds with
gusts up to 70 mph are possible across northern California, as well as
parts of Oregon and Washington, with the highest winds expected along the
coast and high terrain. These winds are likely to produce numerous power
outages and tree damage in the most impacted regions. When combined with
heavy snowfall at the higher elevations, blizzard conditions are in the
forecast throughout the Washington Cascades. As an associated frontal
boundary slides southeastward and stalls near northern California on
Wednesday, a deep and continuous plume of anomalous atmospheric moisture
content will flow into the Redwood Coast of California and northern
mountain ranges of the Golden State. Heavy rain and rising snow levels
will increase the threat of numerous floods and potential mudslides,
exacerbated by the duration of heavy rainfall through the end of the week.
In fact, WPC has issued a High Risk (level 4/4) of Excessive Rainfall
across parts of northwest California on Thursday in order to further
highlight this flooding threat. Residents and visitors throughout the
Northwest are urged to have multiple ways to receive warnings, listen to
advice from local officials, and avoid traveling through hazardous weather
conditions if possible.

In the north-central U.S. another potent low pressure system is lifting
northward and producing unsettled weather of its own across the Upper
Midwest and northern Plains today. A tight pressure gradient being
produced by the storm is forecast to create strong winds across much of
Nebraska, eastern Montana, and the Dakotas through Wednesday with maximum
wind gusts up to 65 mph possible. Strong winds may also overlap with
moderate to locally heavy snow throughout North Dakota and northwest
Minnesota as the storm system stalls tonight over south-central Canada.
Probabilities for at least 6 inches of total snowfall are high (>70%)
across northern North Dakota. Meanwhile, scattered showers are forecast to
spread eastward into the Midwest, Great Lakes, and eventually the
Mid-Atlantic ahead of an advancing cold front today. By Wednesday night, a
redeveloping low pressure system rapidly strengthening over the Great
Lakes will help produce another round of precipitation over the Great
Lakes, central Appalachians and Northeast through the end of the week. The
greatest impacts from this precipitation is expected throughout the higher
elevations of West Virginia and western Maryland, where up to a foot of
snowfall is possible through Friday.

Elsewhere, heavy rain and a risk for scattered flash floods remains a
concern across the central and eastern Gulf Coast as a cold front, weak
area of low pressure, and ample atmospheric moisture content spark
numerous showers and thunderstorms capable of containing intense rainfall
rates through tonight. The greatest risk for flash flooding specifically
exists from far eastern Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle, with
urban and poor drainage regions most susceptible to rapid water rises.

Temperatures will be on a roller coaster ride this week as well above
average temperatures are found in the East before an advancing cold front
knocks readings down below average by Thursday. Meanwhile, cooler
temperatures over much of the West are forecast to return to near normal
as upper ridging builds into place.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted November 18, 2024

By Sig Silber November 18, 2024weatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Nov 18 2024
Valid 12Z Mon Nov 18 2024 – 12Z Wed Nov 20 2024

…A potent storm system over the central U.S. today will create chances
for heavy rainfall, severe thunderstorms, and gusty winds, while moderate
snowfall is possible across the northern Plains by Tuesday…

…Heavy rain and flash flooding potential exists throughout the central
and eastern Gulf Coast over the next few days…

…Powerful Pacific low pressure system to impact the Northwest with high
winds and heavy mountain snow, while an atmospheric river takes aim at
northern California by Wednesday…

An amplified weather pattern and two separate strong storm systems are set
to impact the Nation during the first half of this week. First, a deep low
pressure system ejecting out of West Texas early this morning is
anticipated to further organize over the central U.S. today and produce
areas of heavy rain, severe weather, and gusty winds to the
southern/central Plains. Thunderstorms forming along an attached cold
front may contain damaging winds and perhaps a few tornadoes between
central Oklahoma and North Texas today. This region is where the Storm
Prediction Center has hoisted a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe
thunderstorms. As the system progresses northward into the Upper Midwest
on Tuesday, showers are also forecast to spread north throughout parts of
the Midwest and Great Lakes. Meanwhile, cold air working into the western
side of the storm will likely allow for precipitation to fall as snow
across parts of North Dakota and northern Minnesota into Wednesday.
Snowfall may also be accompanied by gusty winds, leading to lower
visibility on roadways. Current snowfall probabilities for at least 4
inches of snow are greatest (70-90%) across north-central North Dakota.

As the associated cold front pushes eastward through Tuesday, numerous
showers and thunderstorms interacting with a surge of moisture being
lifted northward from the Gulf of Mexico could contain intense rainfall
rates capable of producing flash flooding. Heavy rainfall is most likely
tonight across eastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi, with the threat
expanding east to the Florida Panhandle on Tuesday. Scattered flash floods
are most likely throughout low-lying and urban regions. Residents and
visitors are reminded to have multiple ways to receive warnings and never
drive across flooded roadways.

For much of the Northwest, northern Great Basin, and northern Rockies, a
cold front pushing across the region today and enhanced onshore flow will
allow for unsettled weather to continue ahead of a powerful storm system
forecast to develop off the coast of the Northwest on Tuesday. This
appetizer of precipitation to start the workweek will mainly include the
potential for moderate to heavy snowfall across the Cascades and northern
Rockies. However, by Tuesday night the rapidly strengthening Pacific low
pressure system will aid in producing high winds across the Pacific
Northwest and increasing precipitation intensity. Wind gusts up to 70 mph
are possible across parts of northern California and Oregon, with strong
winds also expected over parts of western Washington. These winds will
have the potential to knock down trees and produce power outages. Heavy
snowfall with amounts potentially exceeding two feet are possible over the
northern California ranges and Cascades. By Wednesday, an associated
atmospheric rive event is expected to take shape and direct continuous
Pacific moisture towards northern California and southwest Oregon.
Widespread rainfall amounts of 4 to 7 inches are expected through
Wednesday across this region, which could produce areas of river flooding
and increase the risk of mudslides. Heavy rain and the associated weather
hazards from this atmospheric river event are also expected to continue
beyond midweek.

Below average temperatures are forecast to remain over much of the western
U.S. over the next few days while gradually spreading eastward into the
Great Plains. Meanwhile, high pressure over the East will continue to
create mild and dry conditions through Tuesday as rainfall chances enter
the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Wednesday.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted November 17, 2024

By Sig Silber November 17, 2024UncategorizedNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Nov 17 2024
Valid 12Z Sun Nov 17 2024 – 12Z Tue Nov 19 2024

…Widespread precipitation expected across the Northwest and northern
Rockies, including heavy mountain snow for parts of the region…

…A strong area of low pressure will bring periods of heavy rain, gusty
winds, and the potential for severe thunderstorms throughout the southern
to central Plains between tonight and Monday…

…Heavy rain and scattered instances of flash flooding possible early
this week across the central and eastern Gulf Coast…

An inland progressing cold front and associated onshore flow off the
Pacific Ocean will aid in producing widespread precipitation over the next
few days across the Northwest and northern Rockies. Moderate to locally
heavy rain is possible across coastal sections of Washington and Oregon,
while heavy snow is likely throughout the Cascades and high terrain of
northern Idaho and western Montana. Meanwhile, a much stronger storm
system and corresponding atmospheric river is anticipated to begin
impacting the Northwest Tuesday night. Strong winds and heavy rainfall are
possible from northern California to Washington, with potential impacts
including scattered flooding and power outages, as well as heavy mountain
snowfall.

A strong area of low pressure is also forecast to produce numerous weather
hazards across the central U.S. beginning tonight. The strengthening storm
system is expected to organize over West Texas and push into the central
Plains by Monday. On the east side of this storm a strong surge of
atmospheric moisture content from the western Gulf of Mexico will aid in
creating an environment ripe for thunderstorm development, particularly
across western/central Texas and southwest Oklahoma into early Monday.
This region is where the Storm Prediction Center currently highlights the
best potential for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes. A draped
stationary boundary extending from the central Plains into the low
pressure center will allow for a corridor of focused heavy rainfall and
the possibility of scattered flash flooding. Flood Watches are in effect
from northwest Texas to central Oklahoma in order to highlight this
concern. As the anomalously deep system moves northward on Tuesday,
rainfall chances will also spread northward into the Upper Midwest. Snow
is also likely to develop across parts of North Dakota and could be heavy
at time through Wednesday morning. Additionally, a tight pressure gradient
associated with this area of low pressure could create periods of strong
winds throughout the central U.S. early this week.

Heavy rainfall is also a concern throughout the central and eastern Gulf
Coast early this week as an approaching cold front interacts with a surge
of tropical moisture associated with Tropical Storm Sara as it dissipates
over Belize today. This elevated atmospheric moisture content is
anticipated to allow for areas of heavy rainfall between eastern Louisiana
and the Florida Panhandle, with high chances (70-90%) for widespread
rainfall amounts of at least 2 inches.

Temperatures anomalies are forecast to split the Nation in half over the
next few days as below normal temperatures dominate the West, while above
normal readings remain in the East. Dry conditions can be anticipated
along much of the East Coast, central High Plains, and Southwest through
Wednesday morning.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted November 16, 2024

By Sig Silber November 16, 2024UncategorizedNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Nov 16 2024
Valid 12Z Sat Nov 16 2024 – 12Z Mon Nov 18 2024

…Periods of heavy coastal rain and mountain snow to impact the Northwest
this weekend, with heavy snow also spreading into the Northern Rockies…

…Heavy rain and severe weather potential to develop over the Southern
Plains Sunday night…

…Elevated fire weather concerns will continue across parts of the
Northeast through this weekend…

Unsettled weather is in store for the Pacific Northwest and Northern
Rockies through early next week as a strong cold front moves inland later
today and leads to a consistent flow of Pacific moisture into the region.
Heavy coastal rain can be expected throughout western Oregon and
Washington, with heavy snow in the higher elevations of the Olympic and
Cascade mountains. Winter Storm Warnings are in effect starting today
across the Cascades due to forecast snowfall accumulations up to 2 feet.
Mountain snow is also anticipated to expand eastward into the Northern
Rockies by late tonight. Meanwhile, a separate area of low pressure racing
out of the Northern Plains today ahead of the Pacific Northwest system may
produce a swath of moderate snow of its own, with the medium chances
(40-60%) for at least 4 inches of snow across northeast Montana and
northwest North Dakota.

By Sunday night, a blossoming precipitation shield is forecast to impact
the southern Plains in response to a rapidly strengthening low pressure
system. This anomalously strong area of low pressure will help surge ample
atmospheric moisture content northward into a draped stationary boundary
and produce areas of heavy rain from North Texas and the Texas Panhandle
through central Oklahoma into eastern Kansas by Monday. Scattered
instances of flash flooding are possible. Additionally, thunderstorms may
become severe as an attached cold front pushes across the Lone Star State,
with a risk damaging wind gusts and possibly a tornado or two into Monday
morning.

Dry conditions and gradually warming temperatures can be expected across
the eastern U.S. through early next week in response to a large high
pressure system sliding to the East Coast by Monday. While this is great
news for outdoor fall activities, there remains elevated fire weather
concerns throughout New England and the Northeast this weekend due to
recent increasing drought conditions and breezy northwest winds. Red Flag
Warnings continue for much of the highly populated I-95 corridor from
Philadelphia to Boston.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted November 15, 2024

By Sig Silber November 15, 2024UncategorizedNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Nov 15 2024
Valid 12Z Fri Nov 15 2024 – 12Z Sun Nov 17 2024

…Unsettled weather persists throughout much of the West today before the
next strong storm system enters the Pacific Northwest on Saturday…

…Elevated fire weather concerns continue across parts of the Northeast…

…Next round of heavy rain and severe weather potential to develop over
the Southern Plains late Sunday…

The end of the workweek and upcoming weekend will have plenty of potential
weather hazards scattered across the Nation as we reach the midway point
of November. A system crossing the Intermountain West today will continue
to bring areas of moderate snowfall from the central Sierra Nevada to the
Northern Rockies into Saturday. The highest elevations have high chances
(>70%) for at least 4 inches of snowfall and coincide with where Winter
Weather Advisories have been issued. Precipitation is also possible across
the Northern Plains on Saturday as an area of low pressure crosses the
region, with a mix of rain and snow at times. This system will also have
the potential to produce periods of strong winds across parts of the
Montana Front Range on Saturday. As the weekend begins, a strong frontal
boundary and surge of Pacific moisture is set to move inland across the
Pacific Northwest and bring the potential for heavy coastal/lowland
rainfall and snow to the Washington and Oregon Cascades. In fact, Winter
Storm Watches have been hoisted for the Cascades due to the potential for
total snow accumulations of 1 to 2 feet, with locally higher snow amounts
over the highest peaks.

For the East, two separate storm systems brushing coastal regions while a
large area of high pressure builds into the Great Lakes and slides over
the Appalachians by Sunday will drive weather conditions through this
weekend. Gusty winds and locally heavy rain are possible along the Outer
Banks of North Carolina and surrounding Mid-Atlantic coastline today due
to a rapidly deepening, but quickly exiting, low pressure system. Showers
and strong winds will be short-lived as the storm races eastward into the
open Atlantic by tonight, with breezy conditions remaining due to a tight
pressure gradient related to high pressure over the Great Lakes. A
separate storm system swinging into the Canadian Maritimes will produce
showers over parts of Maine, with a light glaze of freezing rain possible
today where temperatures hang just below the freezing mark. In between
these two system will remain a very dry and breezy Northeast, prompting an
additional few days of fire weather concerns. Conditions will remain ripe
for developing wildfires through at least Saturday thanks to a stiff
northwest breeze and low relative humidity, including major I-95 cities
between Philadelphia and Boston.

By late this weekend the next rainmaker for the Southern Plains is
forecast to develop as an organizing low pressure system strengthens over
West Texas Sunday night. This system is then forecast to move
northeastward into Monday morning and spread numerous showers and
thunderstorms between the Texas Panhandle/North Texas to central Oklahoma.
Periods of heavy rain may lead to areas of flash flooding, especially in
urban and poor drainage locations. A few strong thunderstorms may also
have the potential to contain large hail, frequent lightning, and damaging
wind gusts.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted November 14, 2024

By Sig Silber November 14, 2024UncategorizedNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Nov 14 2024
Valid 12Z Thu Nov 14 2024 – 12Z Sat Nov 16 2024

…A rapidly developing coastal storm is expected to bring a period of
gusty winds, enhanced rainfall and thunderstorms from the Carolinas to the
Mid-Atlantic states Thursday night into Friday…

…Lower elevation/coastal rain and mountain snow continue for the Pacific
Northwest Thursday; a rain/snow mix will spread inland across the Great
Basin and Rockies Thursday and Friday…

…Most of the country will see seasonable to above average temperatures
to end the week…

Showers will continue this morning and into Thursday afternoon ahead of a
low pressure/frontal system pushing through the Great Lakes region, with
precipitation chances gradually winding down with time and eastward extent
Thursday evening as the system weakens. To the south, more vigorous
showers and thunderstorms and heavier rainfall will continue ahead of the
front over the Upper Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and into the Southeast,
spreading into the central/southern Appalachians Thursday afternoon. Then,
by Thursday evening, a secondary low is expected to develop along the
coast of the Carolinas and deepen as it moves offshore, helping to enhance
onshore flow and rain chances over the Carolinas and southern Mid-Atlantic
into Thursday night. Some gusty winds will also be possible. Rain chances
should quickly taper off from west to east by Friday morning as the low
moves away from the coast. Further north, an area of low pressure lifting
northward over the Atlantic and into Nova Scotia will bring some showers
and possibly a wintry mix into Maine on Friday.

A Pacific frontal system moving through the West will spread precipitation
chances inland over the next couple of days. Lower elevation/coastal rain
and higher elevation snowfall over the Pacific Northwest and northern
California will continue through the day Thursday before tapering off into
Thursday evening as moist flow from the Pacific comes to an end. A lower
elevation rain/snow mix and higher elevation snow will spread further
inland with the system over the northern Rockies/Great Basin Thursday and
into the central Great Basin/Rockies on Friday. Some moderate to locally
heavy snowfall is also forecast for the Sierra Nevada through Friday.

Most of the country will see seasonable to above average temperatures
Thursday and Friday. Central portions of the country will continue to see
temperatures 5-15 degrees above average as an upper-level ridge passes
over the region. Forecast highs generally range from the 40s and 50s for
the Great Lakes/Midwest, the 50s for the northern Plains, the 60s for the
central Plains, and the 60s and 70s for the southern Plains. Highs will be
more seasonable and even a bit below average for the East Coast Thursday,
with 40s and 50s for New England, the Mid-Atlantic, and the Carolinas.
Temperatures will rebound a bit Friday as conditions moderate, with highs
5-10 degrees warmer and into the 50s and 60s. Areas of the Southeast/Gulf
Coast ahead of the cold front will see highs as warm as the upper 70s
Thursday before falling into the 60s and low 70s following the frontal
passage on Friday. Most of the inland West will see seasonable to above
average highs Thursday ahead of the incoming frontal system, with highs in
the 50s for the Great Basin/Rockies/Four Corners region and the 80s into
the Desert Southwest. Highs on Friday will drop into the 40s for the Great
Basin and 60s to low 70s for the Desert Southwest following the frontal
passage. The West Coast will see highs mainly in the 50s and 60s.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted November 13, 2024

By Sig Silber November 13, 2024UncategorizedNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed Nov 13 2024
Valid 12Z Wed Nov 13 2024 – 12Z Fri Nov 15 2024

…Atmospheric River brings heavy coastal rain and high-elevation mountain
snow to the Pacific Northwest and northern California Wednesday…

…Showers and thunderstorms will bring locally heavy rainfall to the
Lower Ohio, Tennessee, and Mississippi Valleys Wednesday, with the risk
for some scattered flash flooding in Louisiana and Mississippi…

…Above average temperatures continue for much of the central U.S. and
Gulf Coast states while colder air moves into the Northeast and the West…

Heavy lower elevation rain and high elevation mountain snow continues in
the Pacific Northwest this morning as a Pacific frontal system and
associated plume of moisture/Atmospheric River move inland over the
region. Precipitation coverage will expand southward into northern
California through the day Wednesday, with favorable upslope locations
along the coastal ranges and Cascades seeing locally heavy rainfall with
an isolated risk for flooding. Precipitation will also spread inland with
the front into the northern Rockies/Great Basin bringing rain and a wintry
mix to lower elevations and more snow to higher elevations in the local
mountain ranges. Precipiation chances across the region will continue into
Thursday, though with more moderate amounts expected as the moisture
flowing in from the Pacific wanes.

Gulf moisture flowing northward ahead of a low pressure/frontal system
over the Mississippi Valley will help trigger a broad area of showers and
thunderstorms today stretching from the Midwest/Great Lakes south through
the Ohio, Tennessee, and Lower Mississippi Valleys. Greater and deeper
moisture content closer to the Gulf as well as some marginal instability
will bring the threat for some locally heavy downpours producing a few
inches of rain for the Lower Ohio, Tennessee, and Lower Mississippi
Valleys, where a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 1/4) is in
effect for some isolated flash flooding. A targeted Slight Risk (level
2/4) has been introduced from central Louisiana northeast into central
Mississippi where higher confidence in greater rainfall rates and very wet
antecedent conditions from prior heavy rainfall events may lead to a few
more scattered instances of flash flooding. The system will continue
eastward on Thursday, bringing shower and thunderstorm chances to the
Upper Ohio Valley, Appalachians, and the Carolinas/Southeast, while
lingering across the Great Lakes. Some more moderate to locally heavy
rainfall totals are most likely across the central/southern Appalachians
and Carolinas where precipitation will be enhanced by a second frontal
boundary lifting northward from the Gulf. The rest of the country will
remain mostly dry.

Much of the central U.S. and Gulf Coast states continue to see above
average high temperatures by around 5-15 degrees this week. Forecast highs
Wednesday and Thursday range from the 40s and 50s in the Great
Lakes/Midwest; 50s in the northern Plains; 50s and 60s in the central
Plains, Middle Mississippi Valley, and Ohio Valley; the 70s for Texas and
the Lower Mississippi Valley, and the 80s along the Gulf Coast and into
Florida. Frontal passages and generally unsettled weather along the East
Coast and in the West will keep temperatures cooler and more seasonable in
these areas. Forecast highs range from the 30s and 40s in New England, the
40s and 50s in the Mid-Atlantic, and the 50s and 60s from the Carolinas
south into Georgia. In the West, highs Wednesday are in the 40s and 50s
for the Pacific Northwest and Interior West, the 60s in California, and
the 70s in the Desert Southwest. Temperatures will moderate for eastern
interior areas on Thursday as upper-level ridging builds northward, with
highs climbing into the 50s and 60s for the Rockies and Four Corners
Region, and the 80s for the Desert Southwest.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted November 12, 2024

By Sig Silber November 12, 2024weatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Nov 12 2024
Valid 12Z Tue Nov 12 2024 – 12Z Thu Nov 14 2024

…An Atmospheric River will bring heavy, low elevation rain and high
elevation mountain snow to the Pacific Northwest and northern California
beginning Tuesday evening…

…Showers and thunderstorms will bring locally heavy rainfall and
isolated flash flooding concerns to the Lower Ohio, Tennessee, and
Mississippi Valleys Wednesday…

…Above average temperatures continue for much of the country, cold
fronts bring more seasonable temperatures for the Northeast and the West
today…

A frontal system moving through the West bringing light to moderate lower
elevation wintry mix and higher elevation snow to the northern Rockies and
Great Basin this morning will continue eastward today, with precipitation
chances spreading into the central Rockies by Tuesday evening. At the same
time, another Pacific frontal system and accompanying Atmospheric River
will approach the West, bringing a wave of Pacific moisture and triggering
increasingly heavier lower elevation/coastal rain and higher elevation
mountain snow. The system will move inland bringing an expanding area of
lower elevation/coastal rain and high elevation mountain snow to northern
California and a wintry mix into the northern Rockies and Great Basin
through Wednesday. Favorable upslope regions along the coastal ranges and
Cascades will see locally heavy rainfall and the threat of some isolated
flooding today, expanding southward into coastal northern California on
Wednesday.

Some lingering light rain/snow showers may continue through Tuesday
morning across the Interior Northeast and Maine as a low pressure system
departs the region. Some heavier showers and thunderstorms are also
expected along the central Gulf Coast as moist flow from the Gulf
continues along a wavy frontal boundary. More widespread precipitation
chances will begin to pick up Tuesday evening as the first frontal system
over the West begins to move eastward out over the Plains. Initially
isolated showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage overnight as
the system moves eastward towards the Mississippi Valley and Gulf moisture
return intensifies into Wednesday morning. More widespread storms with
locally heavy rainfall are expected across the Lower Ohio/Tennessee
Valleys, Mid-South, and into the Lower Mississippi Valley Wednesday, with
some isolated flash flooding possible especially given wet antecedent
conditions from recent rainfalls. More light to moderate rainfall is
likely over the Great Lakes with lower instability and available moisture.
The system will push eastward towards the Appalachians by Thursday
morning.

Much of the central and eastern U.S. will continue to see above average
high temperatures of 5-15 degrees over the next couple of days. Forecast
highs range from the 40s in the Great Lakes, 50s in the northern Plains,
60s for the central Plains, 70s for Texas and the Southeast, and 80s along
the Gulf Coast. Highs will be more seasonable for the Northeast and
Midwest Tuesday following a cold front passage as highs mainly remain in
the 40s and 50s. Cooler, more seasonable temperatures will also come to
the Carolinas and Southeast Wednesday, with highs dropping into the upper
50s to mid-60s. The multiple frontal systems will keep temperatures cooler
across most of the West as well, with highs Tuesday mostly in the 40s and
50s for the Pacific Northwest and interior locations, 60s for coastal
California, and 60s and 70s for the Desert Southwest. Conditions will
moderate by around 5-10 degrees on Wednesday.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted November 11, 2024

By Sig Silber November 11, 2024weatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Nov 11 2024
Valid 12Z Mon Nov 11 2024 – 12Z Wed Nov 13 2024

…An Atmospheric River will bring a couple rounds of heavy, lower
elevation rain and high elevation mountain snow to the Pacific Northwest
and northern California…

…Lingering precipitation chances for the Northeast and Carolinas Monday
with some locally heavier rainfall along the central Gulf Coast…

…Above average temperatures continue for much of the country, more
seasonable temperatures for the Northeast and the West on Tuesday…

A pair of Pacific storm systems will help to usher in waves of moisture
into the Pacific Northwest and northern California in an active
Atmospheric River pattern over the next couple of days. Moderate to heavy
coastal rain and high elevation mountain snow is already ongoing over the
Pacific Northwest this morning and will continue to spread inland as well
as into northern California throughout the day Monday. A moderate lower
elevation rain/wintry mix and higher elevation snow will also spread into
portions of the northern Rockies and Great Basin by Monday evening. Some
locally heavier snowfall totals of 8-12″+ will be possible for the
Cascades with more moderate totals elsewhere. Precipitation will linger
into Tuesday for the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies/Great Basin as
well as spread into the central Rockies as this system continues inland.
Then, on Tuesday evening, a second system will approach the Pacific
Northwest bringing the next wave of moisture inland. Showers and even some
thunderstorms along the coast and upslope portions of the Coastal Ranges
will lead to some heavier rainfall totals late Tuesday into early
Wednesday, with an isolated threat for flooding. Additional heavy snowfall
is also expected for the Cascades.

Some showers and thunderstorms will linger in the Carolinas and along the
central Gulf Coast ahead of a cold front pushing off the East Coast
through the day Monday. Higher moisture along the Gulf could lead to some
locally heavier downpours. A secondary cold front to the northwest will
also bring some additional light to moderate showers to the interior
Northeast, which may include a wintry mix by Monday evening. Elsewhere,
some isolated showers and storms will be possible across the
central/northern Plains and Mississippi Valley late Tuesday/early
Wednesday morning as the first storm system over the West reaches the
region.

Forecast high temperatures Monday continue to remain above average by
around 5-15 degrees for much of the country. Some of the most unseasonably
warm highs will be throughout New England, with highs in the 50s and 60s,
and the Mid-Atlantic, with highs into the 60s and 70s. Otherwise,
temperatures range from the 40s and 50s in the northern Plains/Midwest;
the 50s and 60s for the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, Great Basin,
and California; the 50s for the central Plains and Ohio Valley; and the
70s and 80s for the Desert Southwest, Texas, and the Southeast. A cold
front passing through the Northeast will bring much cooler, more
seasonable temperatures Tuesday, as highs fall into the 40s and 50s. The
Pacific system passing through the West will also bring some more
seasonable temperatures Tuesday, with highs falling into the 40s for the
Great Basin/northern Rockies and the 60s and 70s in the Desert Southwest.

[Image of cumulative wind history]