Day 1 – 5 Weather Forecast

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Feb 11 2025
Valid 12Z Tue Feb 11 2025 – 12Z Thu Feb 13 2025

…Heavy snow over the Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday; Heavy snow over the
Central Plains to the Great Lakes on Wednesday…

…Rain/freezing rain over parts of the Southern Plains to the
Mid-Atlantic/Central Appalachians with 0. 50 inches of ice accumulations
possible on Tuesday and Wednesday: Rain/freezing rain over parts of the
Southern Plains to the Northeast with 0. 10 inches of ice accumulations
possible on Wednesday…

…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Lower
Mississippi Valley, Tennessee Valley, and Southern Appalachians on Tuesday
and Wednesday…

…There is a Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms over parts of the Lower
Mississippi Valley and the Southeast on Wednesday…

…Temperatures will be 25 to 35 degrees below average across the Northern
Rockies eastward to the Upper Great Lakes and southward to the Central
High Plains…

On Tuesday, an Arctic high over the Northern Plains will slowly move
southward to the Central /Southern Plains by Thursday. The cold air
associated with the high will bring temperatures 25 to 35 degrees below
average across the Northern Rockies eastward to the Upper Great Lakes and
southward to the Central High Plains. The cold temperatures have prompted
an Extreme Cold Warning over the Northern Rockies to the Northern Plains.

South of the Artic high, a front extending from the Southeast to the
Southern Rockies and then to the Great Basin will spawn a wave of low
pressure over the Lower Mississippi Valley that moves northeastward,
almost to the Southern Appalachians, by late Tuesday night. Additionally,
a second wave of low pressure just off the Southeast Coast moves northward
to near Cape Hatteras also by late Tuesday night and then moves out over
the Western Atlantic.

Moisture from the Gulf will stream northward over the Southern Plains and
Lower Mississippi Valley, intersecting the cold air moving south over the
Plains, producing an area of moderate to heavy snow over Central
Rockies/Plains into parts of the Middle Mississippi.

Moreover, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the
Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley and Tennessee Valley on Tuesday,
producing heavy rain. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level
2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern Plains/Lower
Mississippi Valley and Tennessee Valley through Wednesday morning. The
associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the
most vulnerable.

Meanwhile, a significant Winter Storm begins Tuesday. The storm will
produce heavy snow from northeast Kentucky into West Virginia through the
I-95 corridor from Richmond to Philadelphia. Snowfall rates will sometimes
reach 1 inch per hour, with heavy, wet snow totals of 4-8 inches expected.
Isolated power outages are possible, and travel may become extremely
hazardous (especially during the Tuesday evening commute).

In addition, a long-duration freezing rain event is expected to occur
across portions of the Central Appalachians, especially within the Blue
Ridge from far northwest North Carolina into southwest and central
Virginia. There is a high chance (60-80%) of 0.25 inch plus for ice
accumulations in these areas and a medium chance (30-50%) for 0.50 inch
plus of ice accumulations. The freezing rain will result in dangerous
travel and may cause power outages and tree damage. Further, rain will
develop over parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and southern Mid-Atlantic
and will expand into parts of the Southeast by late Tuesday night.

Furthermore, a second wave of low pressure will develop over parts of the
Southern Plains on Wednesday morning and move northeastward to southeast
Ontario, Canada, by Thursday. On Wednesday, the system will produce severe
showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley and
the Southeast. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of
severe thunderstorms over parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley and the
Southeast from Wednesday through Thursday morning. The hazards associated
with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, a few tornadoes, and a minimal threat of hail.

Moreover, the showers and thunderstorms will have heavy rain. Therefore,
the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over
parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Southern Appalachians from
Wednesday into Thursday morning. The associated heavy rain will create
mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small
streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable.

Furthermore, heavy snow will develop on Wednesday from parts of the
Central Plains to the Great Lakes, with snowfall rates of around 1 inch
per hour and a (>50% chance) of producing at least 5 inches of total snow
accumulation. A wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain over central/eastern
Oklahoma into the Ozarks will produce ice accumulation of a tenth of an
inch or more. Any amount of freezing rain could make for hazardous travel
on untreated surfaces.

One more system will start to move into the West Coast late Wednesday
night into Thursday morning. The Storm will produce rain and
higher-elevation snow over parts of the Pacific Northwest and California.

Elsewhere, lake-effect snow will wind down downwind from Lakes Superior,
Michigan, and Ontario on Tuesday. The heaviest snowfall will be over the
Keweenaw Peninsula in Northern Michigan and the Tug Hill Plateau in New
York State.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Feb 10 2025
Valid 12Z Mon Feb 10 2025 – 12Z Wed Feb 12 2025

…Heavy snow over the Central Plains and Ohio Valley into the
Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday…

…Rain/freezing rain over parts of the Southern Plains, Lower Mississippi
Valley, and Mid-Atlantic/Central Appalachians with 0.25 inches of ice
accumulations possible…

…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Lower
Mississippi Valley, Tennessee Valley, and Southern Appalachians on
Tuesday…

…Temperatures will be 25 to 40 degrees below average across the Northern
Rockies/Northern High Plains…

On Monday, an Arctic front will extend from the Upper Great Lakes to the
Central Plains and into the Northern Rockies. The boundary will move
eastward to the Northeast by Tuesday evening. The western part of the
front will merge with a front extending from the southern Mid-Atlantic
across the Gulf Coast States to the Great Basin. In the wake of the front,
an Arctic high will move into the Upper Midwest by Tuesday evening. Cold
air associated with the high will bring temperatures 25 to 40 degrees
below average across the Northern Rockies/Northern High Plains.

Upslope snow will develop over parts of the Northern Rockies on Monday and
expand into parts of the Northern Plains, continuing to expand into the
Central/Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley by Monday evening. In the
meantime, a front extending from the southern Mid-Atlantic southwestward
to the Southern High Plains will aid in producing showers and
thunderstorms over the Southern Plains on Monday.

Also on Monday, moisture from the Gulf will stream northward over the
Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley, intersecting the cold air
moving south over the Plains, producing a broad area of light snow over
Central Plains and Middle Mississippi/Ohio Valleys. Showers and
thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Southern Plains/Lower
Mississippi Valley and Tennessee Valley on Tuesday. The storms will
produce heavy rain over the area. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight
Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern
Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley and Tennessee Valley from Tuesday into
Wednesday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized
areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and
low-lying areas the most vulnerable.

Meanwhile, a winter storm exiting the Rockies on Tuesday will impact the
Central Plains Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. Heavy snow is possible by
early Wednesday, with

snowfall rates of around 1 inch per hour may (>50% chance) produce at
least 5 inches of total snow accumulation for much of central Kansas along
the I-70 corridor.

Moreover, over central/eastern Oklahoma into the Ozarks, a wintry mix of
sleet and freezing rain may yield some ice accumulation of a tenth of an
inch or more from Monday evening into Wednesday morning. Any amount of
freezing rain could make for hazardous travel on untreated surfaces.In
addition, a significant winter storm with impactful wintry weather,
including snow and freezing rain, will spread across the Central
Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic states Tuesday through Wednesday. Snow,
sleet, and freezing rain are all likely. Furthermore, heavy snow will
develop from eastern Kentucky through the I-95 corridor from Richmond to
Philadelphia. Snowfall rates may reach 1 inch per hour and likely be
heavy, wet snow, making isolated power outages possible. Travel will
become extremely hazardous, especially during the Tuesday evening commute.

Moreover, a long-duration freezing rain event will occur across portions
of the Central Appalachians, especially within the Blue Ridge from far
northwest North Carolina into southwest Virginia. More than 0.25 inch of
ice is likely (70%). The freezing rain will make travel dangerous and may
cause power outages and tree damage.

Elsewhere, lake-effect snow will develop downwind from Lakes Superior,
Michigan, and Ontario. The heaviest snowfall will be over the Keweenaw
Peninsula in Northern Michigan and the Tug Hill Plateau in New York State.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Feb 09 2025
Valid 12Z Sun Feb 09 2025 – 12Z Tue Feb 11 2025

…Snow will taper off across parts of the Northeast…

…Lake-effect snow downwind from the Great Lakes…

…Temperatures will be 10 to 25 degrees below average across the Northern
Rockies/Northern High Plains…

As low pressure moves off the Northeast Coast, the associated snow will
slowly taper off on Sunday. Lake-effect snow will develop over parts of
the Upper Great Lakes from Sunday into Tuesday. In addition, lake-effect
snow will develop downwind from Lake Ontario, starting later on Sunday and
continuing into Monday. Rain will continue from parts of the southern
Mid-Atlantic/Central Appalachians to the Lower Mississippi Valley, slowly
tapering off to over parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic and Lower
Mississippi Valley by Sunday evening.

Meanwhile, on Sunday, an Arctic front over Western Canada will move
southeastward to the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley and westward to the Great
Basin by Tuesday. In the wake of the front, an Arctic high will move into
the Northern Plains by Tuesday. Cold air associated with the high will
bring temperatures 10 to 25 degrees below average across the Northern
Rockies/Northern High Plains.

Upslope snow will develop over parts of the Northern Rockies on Sunday,
as weak onshore flow will produce coastal rain and snow over parts of the
Pacific Northwest. On Monday, the snow will expand into parts of the
Northern Plains, continuing to expand into the Central/Plains/Middle
Mississippi Valley by Monday evening.

In the meantime, a front extending from the southern Mid-Atlantic
southwestward to the Southern High Plains will aid in producing scattered
rain along the boundary through Monday morning. Also on Monday, moisture
from the Gulf will stream moisture northward over the Southern Plains and
Lower Mississippi Valley, intersecting the cold air moving south over the
Plains, producing a broad area of light snow over Northern/Central Plains
and Middle Mississippi/Ohio Valleys and Upper Mississippi Valley. Steadier
rain and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Southern
Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley and Tennessee Valley on Monday into
Tuesday.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Feb 08 2025
Valid 12Z Sat Feb 08 2025 – 12Z Mon Feb 10 2025

…Moderate to heavy snow across parts of the Upper Great Lakes and heavy
snow over parts of the Northeast...

…Rain/freezing rain from the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic with up to
0.25 inches of ice accumulations over the Central Appalachians…

…Light to moderate snow over parts of the Pacific Northwest and Northern
Intermountain Region…

A strong storm over the Central/Southern Plains will move northeastward to
off the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast Coast by late Saturday night. The storm
will produce a swath of 4-8 inches of snow across parts of Minnesota and
the Great Lakes through Saturday evening. Hazardous travel is possible in
affected areas.

Moreover, heavy snow will impact the Northeast Saturday night into Sunday.
At times, snowfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour will produce as much as
6-12 inches of snow from Upstate New York through southern New England.
Hazardous travel is likely due to low visibility, snow-covered roads, and
slippery roads.

Furthermore, a wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain will result in
light ice accumulations from the Ohio Valley into the northern
Mid-Atlantic, with significant icing possible in the Central Appalachians
up to 0.25 inches of ice accumulations. Power outages and minor tree
damage are possible where ice is the heaviest. Elsewhere, minor freezing
rain accumulations on roadways will make for dangerous travel. Be sure to
check conditions before venturing out and drive slowly.

In addition, rain will develop over parts of the Middle Mississippi/Ohio
Valleys into parts of the Central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic Through
Saturday evening. From Saturday evening into late Sunday morning, rain
will continue from parts of the Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys and
southern Mid-Atlantic. On Sunday evening, rain will develop over parts of
the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley and continue over parts
of the southern Mid-Atlantic.

Meanwhile, upper-level energy will move into the Pacific Northwest on
Saturday, producing coastal rain and higher-elevation snow. The snow will
expand inland to the Northern Intermountain Region overnight Saturday into
Sunday. The snow will move into parts of the Northern Rockies by Sunday
evening.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Feb 07 2025
Valid 12Z Fri Feb 07 2025 – 12Z Sun Feb 09 2025

…Moderate to heavy snow across parts of the Northern Intermountain
Region and the Northern Rockies…

…Moderate to heavy snow from the Northern High Plains to the Lower Great
Lakes and moderate to heavy snow over parts of the Northeast…

…Rain/freezing rain from the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic on
Saturday…

A strong storm over the Pacific Northwest/Northern Intermountain Region
will move roughly eastward to off the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast Coast by
Sunday. On Friday, the system will produce moderate to heavy snow over
parts of the Northern Intermountain Region/Northern Rockies. In addition,
light rain and higher-elevation snow will develop over parts of California
through Friday evening. By Friday afternoon, moderate to heavy snow will
expand out of the Northern Rockies onto the Northern Plains and into the
Upper Mississippi Valley by Friday evening.

On Saturday, the moderate to heavy snow will expand out of the Upper
Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes and into the Lower Great Lakes by
Saturday evening. Overnight Saturday, moderate to heavy snow will develop
over parts of the Northeast into Sunday.

Meanwhile, on Friday, along the eastern half of the associated boundary,
light rain will develop over parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley into
parts of the Tennessee/southern Ohio Valley and eastward into parts of the
Mid-Atlantic. Early on Saturday morning, along the rain/snow line, light
rain/freezing rain areas will develop over parts of the Central
Appalachians. Also, rain will extend from parts of the Ohio/Tennessee
Valley on Saturday into the Mid-Atlantic. Moreover, light rain/freezing
rain will also develop over parts of the Ohio Valley and the Mid-Atlantic.
Up to 0.10 inches of rain/freezing rain will develop over parts of the
Northern Mid-Atlantic.

Furthermore, upper-level energy will move into the Pacific Northwest on
Saturday, producing coastal rain and higher-elevation snow. The snow will
expand inland to the Northern Intermountain Region overnight Saturday into
Sunday. Moreover, a wave of low pressure over the Central/Southern Rockies
will create light snow over parts of the Central Rockies.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Feb 06 2025
Valid 12Z Thu Feb 06 2025 – 12Z Sat Feb 08 2025

…Winter storm to impact the Great Lakes, northern Mid-Atlantic and
Northeast with a combination of snow, sleet and freezing rain today…

…Next round of unsettled weather to enter the West today with the threat
of heavy rainfall/snows for California before snowfall chances spread
across the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains into Saturday…

…Record high temperatures are expected across much of the Southern U.S.
over the next few days…

A winter storm currently impacting much of the Great Lakes, upper Ohio
Valley and northern Mid-Atlantic with light snow and a wintry mix is
forecast to continue today while quickly pushing into the Northeast. The
primary winter weather hazards are expected to be associated with freezing
rain as warm air aloft combined with stubborn cold at the surface leads to
an icy morning for many. Precipitation is likely to be coming to an end
across the Ohio Valley by sunrise, with freezing rain lingering across the
Mid-Atlantic and central Appalachians this morning. Meanwhile, snow is
expected to continue across the Great Lakes and shift into much of the
Northeast early today. Total ice accretion of up to a half inch is
possible across parts of eastern WV, western MD, far northern VA, and into
parts of south-central PA. This may lead to scattered power outages and
tree damage. Elsewhere, up to a quarter inch of ice is possible just
northwest of the I-95 corridor from Washington D.C. to Philadelphia, as
well as much of PA, northern OH, northern IN, and southern MI. This amount
of ice is capable of making untreated roadways treacherous. The snowfall
aspect of this storm will feature light amounts (generally under a couple
inches) across the Great Lakes outside of lake-effect snow in the eastern
U.P. of Michigan, with 2 to 5 inches expected throughout much of New
England. Much of the winter weather is anticipated to quickly end by this
evening and be followed by breezy westerly winds as a deepening low
pressure system swings across southeast Canada. In fact, strong winds have
prompted Blizzard Warnings today across the Keweenaw Peninsula of MI and
neighboring counties.

The next storm system to enter the West Coast and eventually spread wintry
weather elsewhere throughout the Lower 48 is forecast to move onshore
later today. Initially, heavy coastal/lower elevation rain is expected
across CA with heavy snow likely into the Sierra Nevada, northern CA
ranges and southern OR. By Friday, the moderate to heavy snowfall located
just north of an associated area of low pressure shifts into the northern
Great Basin and northern Rockies. Total snowfall amounts over a foot are
expected across the higher terrain, with multiple feet of heavy snow
possible in the Sierra Nevada. By early this weekend the snowfall
potential enters the Northern Plains, where high probabilities (70-90%)
for at least 4 inches of snow stretches east-west from northern ND across
central MN, and into central WI. As the system continues to slide eastward
on Saturday night, wintry weather will quickly begin to impact much of the
Great Lakes, upper Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast. Freezing rain
is possible for southern areas similar to where the ongoing ice threat
exists today, with heavy snow (over 4 inches) most likely in the
Northeast. Be sure to check local forecasts for the latest updated
information.

While winter storm systems cross the middle and northern U.S., much of the
South is forecast to remain quite warm. In fact, some areas could see
record breaking warmth continue through this weekend as highs into the 70s
and 80s stretch from the Southwest to the Southern Plains and much of the
Southeast. Dozens of stations across 13 states between Arizona and North
Carolina are currently forecast to break or tie daily high temperature
records. Meanwhile, the coldest air over the next few days will be
confined to the northern High Plains as highs remain in the single digits
and lows dip well below zero.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed Feb 05 2025
Valid 12Z Wed Feb 05 2025 – 12Z Fri Feb 07 2025

…Unsettled weather to persist across the Western U.S. through the end of
the week including a new threat of heavy rainfall for California on
Thursday…

…Winter storm to impact the Midwest and Great Lakes region through the
Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast with a combination of snow, sleet
and freezing rain later today through Thursday…

…Record high temperatures are expected across much of the Southern U.S.
over the next few days…

A persistent deep layer low center and associated trough axis will
continue to provide a general fetch of deeper layer onshore flow and
precipitation for the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies going
through today and tonight. This will include additional accumulating
snowfall across the higher terrain with portions of the Cascades along
with the Sawtooth, Bitterroots and Tetons likely to see an additional 6 to
12+ inches of snow. Meanwhile, a new storm system offshore of the West
Coast will approach California on Thursday and bring a new atmospheric
river surge into the coastal ranges as well as the Central Valley and
Sierra Nevada going through Thursday night and Friday morning. Heavy
rainfall is expected with some potential for additional localized flooding
concerns. Over the higher terrain of the Sierra Nevada, heavy snowfall is
expected with as much as 1 to 3 feet of snow expected with this next
system as it moves inland. This new surge of Pacific moisture will also
lead to a new round of very heavy snowfall for the northern Rockies with
an additional 1 to 2+ feet of accumulating snow possible through Friday.
Some of this will also begin to eject east out into the northern Plains to
end the week.

Meanwhile, farther east from the Midwest through the Great Lakes region
and into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, there will be arrival of a new
winter storm later today through Thursday which will bring a rather
widespread swath of locally heavy snow, sleet and freezing rain. The
heaviest snowfall with several inches of accumulation expected should
focus across the Upper Midwest and the U.P. of Michigan along with some
interior portions of the Northeast involving New York and the central and
northern parts of New England. South of here across the Ohio Valley and
the Mid-Atlantic region, the cold air that the precipitation will be
encountering with be notably more shallow, and this will be conducive for
sleet and freezing rain. Locally significant ice accumulations will be
possible with a 0.25″+ of ice accumulation, and this will lead to
hazardous travel conditions. Scattered power outages and tree damage will
be possible from the weight of the ice.

Cold air will be generally well entrenched for the remainder of the week
across the northern Plains and the Pacific Northwest which will maintain
below normal high temperatures. Some of the coldest air will continue to
be over Montana where highs will struggle to get above zero. Over the
southern U.S., and to the south of a strong frontal zone, very warm
temperatures will be pooled in a general west to east fashion spanning the
Four Corners region eastward across the southern Plains and most of the
Gulf Coast states. High temperatures will locally reach well into the 80s,
and these temperatures will be as much as 20 to 30+ degrees above normal.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Feb 03 2025
Valid 12Z Mon Feb 03 2025 – 12Z Wed Feb 05 2025

…Unsettled weather to persist across the Northwest U.S. into early next
week with much colder temperatures and heavy snowfall across the Cascades,
northern Great Basin, northern Rockies and northern High Plains…

…Strong atmospheric river will continue over the next couple of days
across northern and central California with heavy rains and areas of
flooding likely…

…Storm system crossing the Great Lakes region to bring accumulating
snowfall to parts of the Northeast…

…Record high temperatures are expected across portions of the Southwest
out through the Southern Plains through the middle of the week…

A persistent trough of low pressure and associated closed low will
continue to impact the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies going
through the first half of the week ahead with widespread unsettled weather
expected. Moist onshore flow into the higher terrain coupled with colder
temperatures filtering south from southwest Canada will drive heavy
accumulating snowfall across the Cascades and especially interior mountain
ranges such as the Sawtooth, Bitterroots, Tetons and Absaroka Range. In
fact, the strong atmospheric river that is bringing very heavy rainfall to
areas of northern California is being steered up the larger scale pattern
northeastward up across areas of southern and eastern Oregon, and into the
southwest facing slopes of the northern Rockies where there is plenty of
cold air in place for very heavy snowfall accumulations and including even
some lower elevation locations. For the Cascades, generally an additional
6 to 12 inches of snow is expected through early Wednesday, but
considerably heavier amounts are expected for the Shasta/Siskiyou Ranges
northeastward into the aforementioned terrain of the northern Rockies
where an additional 1 to 3+ feet can be expected. The deep layer fetch of
Pacific moisture is also overrunning Arctic air that is well entrenched
over the northern High Plains, and this coupled with upslope flow here
just east of the Continental Divide will allow for heavy snowfall to
accumulate here as well.

The strong atmospheric river bringing the heavy flooding rain concerns
over northern California should persist through the first part of the week
as a stationary front remains anchored in place. Multiple waves of low
pressure will traverse this boundary, and this coupled with the Pacific
moisture transport and upslope flow/forcing over the higher terrain of the
coastal ranges and northern Sierra Nevada foothills should yield as much
as an additional 5 to 10 inches of rain. The Weather Prediction Center has
depicted a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) of excessive rainfall across
northern California going through early Tuesday. By later Tuesday and
Wednesday, the front will be finally settling southward, but this will
bring heavy rainfall down into central California including the Bay Area
and portions of the Central Valley. Several inches of new rain can be
expected here, and a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall has been depicted
going into early Wednesday.

Farther off to the east, a combination of Pacific moisture arriving from
the Western U.S. along with a frontal system traversing the Great Lakes
region will bring a swath of accumulating snow for today across areas of
Wisconsin and Michigan eastward into northern New York and northern New
England. Locally several inches of new snow accumulation is expected. This
system will pull away through southeast Canada tonight with a trailing
cold front then crossing the region and bringing a new surge of much
colder temperatures.

Arctic high pressure will be settling south from Canada across much of the
northern tier of the nation early this week with temperatures falling
locally well below normal. This will especially be the case over the
northern High Plains where temperatures will be as much as 15 to 30
degrees below normal, with daytime highs locally staying below zero.
However, south of the Arctic front going through the middle of the week,
very warm temperatures will be pooled across much of the southern tier of
the country. This will include temperatures reaching well into the 80s
across the interior of the Southwest and also across the southern Plains.
Record high temperatures are expected with some locations seeing high
temperatures as much as 20 to 30 degrees above normal.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Feb 02 2025
Valid 12Z Sun Feb 02 2025 – 12Z Tue Feb 04 2025

…Unsettled weather to persist across the Northwest U.S. into early next
week with much colder temperatures and heavy snowfall across the Cascades
and the Northern Rockies…

…Strong atmospheric river to bring heavy rains and flooding concerns to
northern California…

…Storm system crossing the Great Lakes region to bring accumulating
snowfall to the Northeast…

…Record high temperatures are expected across portions of the Southwest
out through the Southern Plains on Monday…

A trough of low pressure will be impacting the Pacific Northwest and the
northern Rockies for the remainder of the weekend and into early next
week. Moist onshore flow into the higher terrain coupled with colder
temperatures settling south from southwest Canada will set the stage for
very heavy accumulating snowfall across the Cascades and especially
interior mountain ranges such as the Sawtooth and the Tetons of the
northern Rockies. Generally 1 to 2 feet of new snowfall is expected for
the Cascades, but as much as 2 to 4 feet is expected over the northern
Rockies where the moist upslope flow and colder temperatures will maximize
the snowfall potential.

Some of this very heavy snow over the Northwest will also be influenced by
a strong atmospheric river impacting northern California which is forecast
to bring very heavy rainfall totals into the coastal ranges and the
interior foothills and upslope areas of the northern Sierra Nevada. Going
through Monday, an additional 4 to 8 inches of rain can be expected
locally, with isolated heavier totals. Flooding will become a notable
concern across these areas, and the Weather Prediction Center has issued a
Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) of excessive rainfall. This will include a
threat for some burn scar flash flooding locally with debris flow and
mudslide activity also possible.

Farther off to the east, a storm system currently crossing the Midwest
will advance through the Great Lakes region tonight and will allow for
accumulating snowfall to overspread portions of northern Pennsylvania and
New York along with adjacent areas of New England. Locally as much as 2 to
4+ inches of snow is expected with this system and there will also likely
be some freezing rain/icing concerns for areas of central and western
Pennsylvania. This system will pull away through southeast Canada on
Monday, and gradually a cold front will cross the Great Lakes and
Northeast in its wake with much colder temperatures arriving behind it.

Arctic high pressure will be settling south from Canada across much of the
northern tier of the nation by Monday which will allow for temperatures to
trend locally well below normal. This will especially be the case over the
northern High Plains where temperatures will be as much as 15 to 25
degrees below normal, with daytime highs locally staying below zero.
However, south of the Arctic front, very warm temperatures will be pooled
across much of the southern tier of the country. This will include
temperatures reaching well into the 80s across the interior of the
Southwest and also across the southern Plains. Record high temperatures
are expected for some locations as a result, and for some areas the high
temperatures will be as much as 20 to 30 degrees above normal.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Feb 01 2025
Valid 12Z Sat Feb 01 2025 – 12Z Mon Feb 03 2025

…Unsettled weather to bring lower elevation rains and heavy mountain
snowfall across the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies going
through the weekend…

…Strong atmospheric river to bring heavy rains and flooding concerns to
areas of central and northern California…

…New storm system ejecting out across the northern Plains will bring
accumulating snowfall to portions of the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes and
Northeast…

A switch to a very unsettled weather pattern is underway across the
Northwest and much of the West Coast as a more zonal flow pattern unfolds.
This will bring moist onshore Pacific flow with lower elevation rains and
increasingly heavy mountain snowfall for the Cascades and also the
northern Rockies. Going through Sunday, as much as 1 to 3 feet of new
snowfall is expected over the high terrain, and snow levels will actually
be falling with time as colder air also settles south from southwest
Canada. This allow temperatures to drop below normal with high
temperatures as much as 5 to 10+ degrees below average by the end of the
weekend.

As unsettled weather impacts the Northwest, strong deep layer Pacific flow
along with a quasi-stationary front will become situated over central and
northern California and this will set the stage for a persistent and
strong atmospheric river to impact the region. Heavy to excessive rainfall
is expected for the coastal ranges, including areas around the Bay Area,
and especially areas farther inland into the foothills and higher terrain
of the northern Sierra Nevada. Multi-day rainfall totals through Sunday
for the coastal ranges may reach see as much as 3 to 6 inches. However,
for the upslope areas of the Sierra Nevada, as much as 6 to 12 inches of
rain is forecast, and with high snow levels, there will be strong concerns
for flooding. This will include a threat for burn scar flash
flooding/debris flow activity locally. Heavy rains will be impacting the
Sacramento Valley and some flooding will be possible here as well. The
Weather Prediction Center has depicted a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall
across the region (level 2 of 4) to address the multi-day flooding
concerns associated with this impending atmospheric river activity.

Meanwhile, a new storm system related to the unsettled weather unfolding
across the West will begin to eject east out across the northern Plains
later Saturday through Saturday night this will bring a threat for several
inches of accumulating snow to the Upper Midwest. This system will then
begin to lift up into southeast Canada going through Sunday, but will
bring a threat for snowfall also across portions of the Great Lakes region
and the Northeast where there will be sufficient cold air in place. In the
wake of this system, much colder air will be settling southward across the
northern Plains which will allow temperatures to begin returning back to
below normal.

Elsewhere, very mild temperatures with above average highs can be expected
across much of the rest of the Plains region and the South. In some cases
across the Plains and Midwest, the temperatures this weekend will be as
much as 15 to 20 degrees above normal. Many areas of the Southeast and the
Southwest will also be warmer than normal with highs as much as average 5
to 10+ degrees above average.