NOAA Updates its Four Season Outlook on September 15, 2022 – One More La Nina Winter
Preparing to Say Goodbye to La Nina Early in 2023. It seems as if it is taking forever but if the forecasters are correct, we are talking about four to six months from now.
Today is the third Thursday of the month so right on schedule NOAA has issued what I describe as their Four-Season Outlook. The information released also includes the Early Outlook for the single month of October plus the weather and drought outlook for the next three months. I present the information issued and try to add context to it. It is quite a challenge for NOAA to address the subsequent month, the subsequent three-month period as well as successive three-month periods for a year or a bit more.
It is very useful to read the excellent discussion that NOAA issues with this Seasonal Outlook. NOAA seems to be more confident about making predictions beyond six months. They even predicted a good monsoon next summer which they never do this far in advance.
